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El petróleo cayó desde un máximo de ocho semanas - Diario Gestión

Revista GeneracciónEl petróleo cayó desde un máximo de ocho semanasDiario GestiónLos precios del petróleo cayeron el martes desde los máximos en ocho semanas, presionados por la fortaleza del dólar y la incertidumbre sobre la ...Petróleo termina en baja y rompe racha de una semana en alzaEl Universal (Venezuela)Barril de petróleo sobre 80 dólares pese a bajaPrensa LatinaFortalecimiento del dólar presiona al petróleo a la baja en Nueva YorkLa Nación (Paraguay)El Comercio.pe -Finanzas.com -Reuterslos 150 artículos informativos »

YPF importará petróleo debido a la escasez en Argentina - El País (España)

ADN MundoYPF importará petróleo debido a la escasez en ArgentinaEl País (España)... reestatalización de YPF, advierten que en la última década Argentina no ha invertido lo suficiente para aumentar la producción de petróleo y gasolina. ...A pesar de los aumentos, en la Argentina se paga la nafta más ...El CronistaLas petroleras reconocen que faltará nafta por "algunos días"Clarín.comHistórico: por la escasez de naftas, YPF deberá importarLanacion.com (Argentina)los 153 artículos informativos »

2009, segundo año con menos emisiones de CO2 de petroleo - Agrocope

2009, segundo año con menos emisiones de CO2 de petroleoAgrocopeEn el séptimo número del Observatorio del petróleo, WWF destaca la reducción en las emisiones mundiales por el consumo de petróleo durante 2009 en un 1,5 ...y más »

El petróleo de la OPEP sube 0,59 dólares hasta los 77,86 dólares ... - ABC.es

VenevisiónEl petróleo de la OPEP sube 0,59 dólares hasta los 77,86 dólares ...ABC.esCon esta subida, el barril usado como referencia por la Organización de Países Exportadores de Petróleo (OPEP), una canasta de doce calidades de crudo, ...La OPEP buscará medidas contra la volatilidad y la especulación en ...EFEPrecio de cesta referencial OPEP sube a 77,86 dólaresEl Universal (Venezuela)Irán: OPEP puede no elevar producción si demanda creceReutersEl Diario de Yucatán -Radioequinoccio.com -El Universolos 46 artículos informativos »

El Brent baja un 0,69 por ciento y se sitúa en 79,91 dólares - ABC.es

El Brent baja un 0,69 por ciento y se sitúa en 79,91 dólaresABC.esEl barril de petróleo del mar del Norte, de referencia en Europa, para entrega en abril acabó hoy en el Intercontinental Exchange Futures (ICE) en 79,91 ...y más »

Véspera de Nada

Xornadas en Vigo: Decrecemento para o cambio social (6 e 7 de Marzo)

Xornadas sobre decrecemento, organizadas por Arela e coa colaboración de Amarante, Verdegaia e Altermundo. Vigo, 6 e 7 de marzo, na parroquia Cristo da Vitoria (Coia). PROGRAMA SÁBADO 6 DE MARZO: MAÑA: - 11.00 Desmontando o mito do crecemento (por Manoel Santos) - 12.30 Descanso - 13.00 Decrecemento, mil camiños para vivir con menos (por Manoel Santos) TARDE: 16.30 Proxección do documental: Simplicidade voluntaria e decrecemento (reflexións), de Jean-Claude Decourt 18.00 Descanso 18.30 Límites do crecemento e pegada ecolóxica (a cargo de Verdegaia). PROGRAMA DO DOMINGO 7 DE MARZO: 10.30. Obradoiro sobre decrecemento e alternativas á sociedade de consumo (a cargo de AMARANTE). INFORMACIÓN E INSCRICIÓN: arela EN microutopias PUNTO org

Análise de Xoán Doldán sobre as últimas previsión da AIE sobre a demanda de cru

Hai poucos días coñeciamos por medio de Cenit-del-Petroleo.info o que a prensa económica ortodoxa trasmitía ao respecto das últimas previsións feitas públicas pola AIE. Xoán Doldán pescudou un pouco nas fontes orixinais desa nova e esta é a súa análise: A demanda é a cantidade de bens e servizos que poden ser adquiridos nun momento determinado de acordo con un determinado tipo de prezos. A demanda depende entre outras cousas dos ingresos dos consumidores, do seu número, da cantidade demandada e dos prezos. Cando a AIE afirma a través do seu economista xefe (Fatih Birol) que o requirimento de cru dos países industrializados non volverá ao nivel rexistrado en 2006-2007, deberíamos indicar, en principio, varias cousas, algunha delas obvias: fala de requirimento de cru, polo tanto suponse que fala da cantidade (non do seu valor monetario) fala da demanda dos países industrializados, non da demanda mundial. No entanto a demanda mundial de petróleo cru dos países industrializados (OCDE) supón máis do 52% do total mundial segundo a mesma AIE establece dous escenarios diferentes segundo os países. Os industrializados irían descendendo a súa demanda (aínda que con altibaixos) mentres que os non industrializados irían aumentando o seu consumo por declaracións recentes (decembro) o resultado final é un aumento da demanda mundial Pero se consultamos directamente en Reuters, que é a axencia da que sae a información, Fatih Birol di tamén que unha elevación dos prezos por riba dos actuais poría en perigo a recuperación económica. Admite ademais que os investimentos en novos xacementos baixaron un 19% en 2009 respecto a 2008, e iso que os prezos están a aumentar. E se a demanda de China e India segue a medrar o risco de subida dos prezos do petróleo pode ser factíbel. En canto á OCDE, o que se ven dicir é que en 2010 o consumo será semellante ao de 2009 (estancamento). Na información de Reuters tamén se recolle esta información de interese: "Muhammed al-Sabban, head of the Saudi delegation to UN talks on climate change, said the possibility that oil demand might peak this decade was a “serious problem” for Saudi Arabia." Aínda que se relaciona co cambio climático, o feito de que o xefe da delegación de Arabia Saudita na ONU manifeste preocupación porque a demanda alcance un pico nesta década non deixa de ser significativo. Conclusións da lectura e hipóteses que se suxiren: A crise actual supuxo o reaxuste de moitas actividades manufactureiras en occidente, contracción da demanda (en xeral) e dos fluxos de mercadorías entre os países industrializados e o resto do mundo. Neste fenómeno tiveron que ver moito a elevación dos prezos do petróleo e, malia a forte caída posterior, a lenta recuperación a prezos altos que se foi dando nos últimos meses. O encarecemento dos custes enerxéticos afectou moi directamente na estrutura de custos das industrias occidentais e nos custes do transporte, ademais da perda adquisitiva e de confianza nos consumidores. O desprazamento industrial a outros países (os chamados metaforicamente emerxentes, como China ou India) nos últimos anos, con custes de produción máis baixos, permite manter, malia a elevación dos prezos da enerxía o seu papel como fornecedor de bens de consumo aos países industrializados, ao que se suma a elevación da demanda interna, ligada a un aumento da renda dispoñíbel neses países. Froito desta conxuntura, poderíamos estar ante un futuro inmediato onde mentres na OCDE se estanca a demanda interna (tamén da enerxía), no resto do mundo (en particular en países como China, India, Brasil ou México) a demanda siga a medrar (tamén o consumo enerxético). Como consecuencia a demanda mundial pode seguir medrando. Este dobre comportamento da demanda non é favorábel a incrementar os investimentos na industria do petróleo, agás para o consumo local onde este medre. Con baixos investimentos na industria do petróleo e con elevación da demanda mundial o prezo tenderá a subir, máis a menor presión da demanda da OCDE pode aliviar a tensión sobre os prezos e que a suba sexa máis lenta. En calquera caso, esas subidas tirarán aínda máis para baixo a demanda da OCDE e pode que no resto do mundo, desincentivando aínda máis os investimentos. A falta de investimentos acompasará a caída da demanda con unha caída da oferta (ou ao revés), e dependendo como sexa o desaxuste entre ambas a incerteza sobre os prezos será maior. E esta debe ser a preocupación que manifestan os árabes. E en isto moi pouco teñen que ver os coches eléctricos, aspecto que se destaca en Expansión tomando palabras de Fatih Birol. Porén, aínda non coñecemos as contas (nin por aproximación) de en canto sairá cambiar o parque actual e automóbiles por outro eléctrico, canto custará un sistema de distribución de enerxía eléctrica (as electrolineiras) por todo o territorio, canto custará fornecer de (nova) enerxía eléctrica para este novo sector de consumo eléctrico e baixo que fórmula de xeración, e cantos anos son necesarios para facer todo este cambio (un ano, dous, cinco, dez, vinte…,) e mentres con que se moverán os coches. Tendo en conta que só en España había matriculados --segundo o INE- en 2007 case 22 millóns de turismos particulares e supoñendo que se cambiasen 1,6 millóns de automóbiles ao ano --os matriculados en 2007- tardaríamos 13,5 anos, e isto facendo os cálculos sobre un ano que non había crise. Gasolineiras en España hai algo máis de 8000, a que ritmo habería que adaptalas o construír outras novas para que se fosen localizando segundo se cambia o parque móbil?, ademais, non debería ofrecerse primeiro este servizo para incentivar o cambio de automóbiles?

Debate sobre a postura das persoas de esquerda diante do Teito do Petróleo

Esta semana comezamos outra interesante conversa na lista de correo interna de afiliados a Véspera de Nada que queremos agora trasladar ao blog polo seu interese e para abrirmos o debate ao conxunto dos internautas, como xa fixemos aí atrás co debate sobre Ecoaldeas vs. Comunidades distribuídas. Tomo comezou a raíz dun comentario meu (Casdeiro) tras unha conversa cunha persoa allea á nosa asociación e pertencente aó BNG: Cando lle saco o tema do teito do petróleo e a que nos vai vir, responde sistematicamente que “algo inventarán (ou xa o teñen inventado e está agachado)” pero con ese matiz propio dunha ideoloxía de esquerdas tradicional, de que ese algo que han inventar será “para non perderen beneficios” e seguir mantendo o sistema capitalista. Púñame de exemplo a mala situación na que quedaron moitos países despois da II Guerra Mundial e cómo o sistema se deu levando de novo. Eu tentáballe explicar que o radicalmente diferente, non só con respecto a entón senón con respecto a calquera outro intre da nosa Historia, é que agora imos ter cada vez menos enerxía dispoñible, e ata o de agora fora ao contrario: da biomasa ao carbón, do carbón ao petróleo.. sempre a enerxía dispoñible para o Sistema, o Capitalismo ou como o queiramos chamar, era sempre máis. Esta resposta que impide ver a inevitabilidade dun descenso enerxético traumático, baseada ao meu entender nunha sobrestimación do poder do Inimigo (case poderiamos dicir que constitúe de seu outro mito da nosa sociedade) xa a teño atopado noutros ámbitos anticapitalistas. É moi difícil facerlles ver ás persoas que teñen ese modelo mental do mundo que o Capitalismo, por moi poderoso que sexa, non ten poderes máxicos capaces de saltar as leis físicas. Con eles como con outros parece non quedar máis remedio que esperar ao duro confrontamento coa realidade dos feitos. A iso respondía o compañeiro Xabi: A min non me sorprende a súa postura. Cando falo deste tema con amigos, familiares ou coñecidos hai varias respostas patrón e isa é a primeira. Detecto eso si en xente máis intelixente e reflexiva que tras esta resposta patrón comezan a poñer cara de pánico ata que se tranquilizan e volven á resposta patrón engadindo a coletilla que son cousas de Xabi que é un pouco esaxerado e mesmo paranoico. Lonxe de molestarme, prodúceme moita tenrura… A isto eu engadín a miña constatación de varios autores dos que están a tratar o tema do Teito do Petróleo ou outros asociados aos Límites do Crecemento, así como as perspectivas que encara a nosa sociedade a causa deles, teñen analizado estas respostas desde un punto de vista psicosocial (Peak Oil Stress Syndrome, disonancia cognitiva, analoxías coas fases postraumáticas, etc.). E quedoume pendente a pescuda e recopilación destas análises. Tras isto, Xoán Doldán pasmounos cun sustancioso repaso de urxencia ao tema, que elevou o nivel do debate moitos chanzos: Seguramente todos/as teñamos sufrido este tipo de situacións e esa sensación que describe Xabier. E isto irá en aumento a medida que nos acheguemos ao problema e as evidencias sexan maiores. O noso ton soará cada vez máis catastrofista ou alarmista e da outra banda as respostas serán a de atrincheiramento. Así que non me resisto a facer un comentario. Como me é propio vou alongarme (síntoo) pero viñéronme á mente cousas que tiña lido e que me parecía podían vir ao conto. Eu non sei se o mecanismo de (auto)defensa de que contesta dese modo responde tanto a mecanismos psicolóxicos como psicosociolóxicos. Como de ningunha das cousas son experto a miña e unha reflexión necesariamente non meditada dabondo. Mais como o meu ámbito é o das ciencias sociais e a miña disciplina é de corte estruturalista acabo por pensar no todo e os seus elementos e o modo en que se relacionan. Así que o contexto social considero que é determinante pero a relación dos individuos entre si, a posición que ocupan no corpo social, o seu papel como consumidores, ou produtores etc, a ideoloxía dominante, os mecanismos de percepción, información ou manipulación, a conciencia social, as institucións etc, provocan actitudes individuais determinadas, á vez que estas condicionan comportamentos sociais. Por tanto, movémonos nunha maraña de relacións na que somos actores e espectadores, suxeitos pasivos e activos a un tempo. Tentarei explicarme (e seguramente non o conseguirei): “Cando lle saco o tema do teito do petróleo e a que nos vai vir, responde sistematicamente que “algo inventarán (ou xa o teñen inventado e está agachado)” pero con ese matiz propio dunha ideoloxía de esquerdas tradicional, de que ese algo que han inventar será “para non perderen beneficios” e seguir mantendo o sistema capitalista.” Isto creo que está moi ben retratado nun libro de hai uns anos (publicado en español en 1990) Entropía. Hacia el mundo invernadero de Jeremy Rifkin, cando describía a visión tecnolóxica que predomina no mundo (pp.103-104): "Si eliminamos toda la mística que envuelve a la tecnología, lo que nos queda, lisa y llanamente, es un transformador (…) de la energía acumulada en la naturaleza. (…) Resulta irónico que, a medida que la tecnología ha ido haciéndose más compleja y extendido su dominio sobre el mundo, hayamos llegado a verla como algo independiente de la naturaleza, como si generase su propia energía de la nada (…). Lo cierto es que la tecnología nunca crea energía; sólo consume energía disponible. Cuanto mayor y más compleja sea la tecnología, más energía consume. Por impresionante que a veces pueda parecer nuestra tecnología, también ella opera bajo el dictado supremo de la primera y la segunda ley [de la termodinámica], como todo lo que existe.(…) Aunque todo esto resulta bastante evidente, aún seguimos viviendo bajo la ilusión de que la tecnología nos está liberando de nuestra dependencia del medio ambiente cuando nada podría hallarse más lejos de la verdad (…). La tecnología nos hace más dependientes de la naturaleza, aunque físicamente nos aleje cada vez más de ella. (…) También alimentamos la creencia de que la tecnología está creando un mayor orden en el mundo cuando, una vez más, esto es sólo una parte de la historia (…). Cuando más deprisa perfeccionamos nuestra tecnología, más aceleramos el proceso de transformación, más deprisa se disipa la energía y más aumentan la contaminación y los desechos. En resumen, estamos viviendo en una especie de mundo de pesadilla al estilo de Orwell. Nos hemos convencido a nosotros mismos de que la forma en que hacemos las cosas está creando un mundo completamente distinto al que en realidad creamos (…), hemos llegado a creer que el desorden es orden, que los desechos son valor y que el trabajo no es trabajo. A medida que nuestro mundo se desliza más velozmente hacia el caos, nos mostramos cada vez menos dispuestos a identificar el origen del problema. Lo que hacemos, en cambio, es envolvernos más estrechamente en nuestro atuendo tecnologíco y defenderlo contra toda crítica, incapaces de reconocer lo que está haciéndole al medio ambiente en que vivimos y más incapaces todavía de reconocer lo que nos está haciendo a nosostros mismos. Seguimos aferrándonos a la ilusión de que estamos bien abrigados y protegidos, aun cuando cada vez nos hallamos más desnudos y amenazados por los fragmentos desordenados de un mundo de nuestra propia creación" Tamén insiste noutra parte do libro (pp.277 e ss) sobre as actitudes fronte a unha crise entrópica e, en particular, considera tres clases de resposta por parte de aqueles que non logran decidirse a deixar atrás a prevalecente visión do mundo, e que serían: os optimistas, os pragmáticos e os hedonistas. Nos tres a negación das implicacións da lei da entropía suporán aprender unha lección esmagadora e definitiva, como a de aquel home que se negaba a crer na lei da gravidade, "este home sube al último piso de un gran rascacielos y salta al vacío. A la gravedad, por supuesto, no le importa en lo más mínimo que el hombre crea en ella o no, y procede a dar una lección al escéptico atrayéndolo inexorablemente hacia el suelo. Pero el hombre, dispuesto a aferrarse a cualquier paja con tal de defender su supervivencia física e intelectual, pasa a toda velocidad ante la ventana del cuadragésimo piso gritando. "Hasta aquí, todo va bien"". Das tres posíbeis respostas citadas anteriormente resumirei só a dos optimistas, xa que é a que ven máis ao conto. Eles basean as súas esperanzas "en la suposición, de que en alguna parte, destrás de la siguiente colina o en el laboratorio de al lado, se encontrará una solución tecnológica que nos permite seguir como hasta ahora (…). Los optimistas tecnológicos rechazan la idea de regresar a un flujo de baja entropía que esté más en consonancia con los procesos y ritmos naturales de los ecosistemas del planeta" Un aspecto que creo é interesante neste tipo de respostas é a interiorización do discurso dominante, de aqueles que exercen o poder (neste caso, mesmo por persoas de ideoloxía de esquerdas). Maurice Godelier (nun libro tamén publicado en español en 1990), Lo ideal y lo material. Segundo este autor, os sistemas de representacións son indispensábeis na produción e uso dos medios materiais, acompañándose de actos simbólicos. Esta parte simbólica constituiría unha realidade social tan real como as accións materiais sobre a natureza (aínda que a súa finalidade, razón de ser e organización interna teñen orixe na interpretación da orde social e cósmica). Tamén afirma Godelier que hai dous elementos indisolubelmente combinados en todo poder dominante e que o reforzan: a violencia e o consentimento. Acha que a forza maior dos dous elementos está no consentimento dos dominados. Na imposición do poder a unha parte da sociedade e o seu mantemento contan máis a adhesión, e a convición do pensamento que leva consigo a adhesión da vontade e a cooperación dos dominados, que a represión, a violencia física ou psicolóxica ou a aceptación (sen que estas deixen de ser importantes, xa que unhas non exclúen as outras). Para que os dominados consintan espontaneamente a súa dominación é necesario que a entendan como un servizo emprestado polos dominantes, polo que o poder lexitímase ante os dominados.. Debe haber, pois, unhas representacións compartidas que unan o consentimento co recoñecemento dos beneficios, da lexitimidade e da necesidade dese poder. Desta forma para que as relacións de dominación e de explotación se formen e se reproduzan de xeito duradeiro, deben presentarse como intercambio e un intercambio de servizos. No caso que nos ocupa os que consideran que os poderosos resolverán a cuestión porque lles convén, admiten que hai un intercambio e que na procura de beneficios dos donos do capital monopolista xurde un beneficio social e que, nese reparto, nós obteremos unha parte. No fondo é consentimento do dominado que antes de enfrontarse a un cambio do que non coñece as consecuencias prefire crer que a situación actual lle é beneficiosa porque hai alguén (os dominantes) que velan, mesmo polo seu propio egoísmo, polo ben de todos ("para non perderen beneficios e seguir mantendo o sistema capitalista"). Négase a propia realidade circundante, a de millóns de persoas excluídas de tal beneficio social, os/as condenados/as da terra pola acción deses mesmos monopolios. Négase a propia lóxica de funcionamento do sistema capitalista e a prevaleza das visión a curto prazo das empresas, onde o beneficio de hoxe se anticipa a calquera consecuencia a longo prazo (suponse imprevisíbel e polo tanto, crese que mudábel), de maneira que se nega a existencia de límites ecolóxicos e físicos. Asúmese o sistema capitalismo como sistema finalista, o fin da historia que remata no capitalismo como meta predeterminada ao longo da historia, e, deste modo, non substituíbel por outro. Non se decatan de que, en certa medida, as civilizacións teñen entrado en colapso por un determinado uso de materiais e enerxía, que a crise enerxética arrastrada durante o século XVIII desemboca noutro sistema enerxético (baseado no carbón e non en recursos renovábeis locais, en particular a leña) e posibilita o capitalismo industrial, como o petróleo posibilitará o capitalismo monopolista. Ou négase que o cambio enerxético supón un cambio nas pautas de producir, consumir, organizarse socialmente…Ou que as crises dos sistemas enerxéticos son cada vez máis frecuentes. E isto pode corroborarse con datos. “Púñame de exemplo a mala situación na que quedaron moitos países despois da II Guerra Mundial e cómo o sistema se deu levando de novo.” Por outra parte a IIª Guerra Mundial foi, como hoxe resulta máis que evidente, un conflito entre potencias capitalistas, no que se definiu unha nova correlación de forzas. Os EE.UU, non saíron precisamente malparados, nin a súa economía destruída e, daquela, era o gran produtor de petróleo. Tamén serviu para definir un novo mapa xeostratéxico co Oriente Medio como eixo importante (algo que xa viña facéndose tras a Iª Guerra Mundial e o fin do Imperio Otomano e o posicionamento de Gran Bretaña --daquela principal potencia- e Francia nese escenario). E agora non se trata diso, aínda que, como xa está a acontecer, hai importantes posicionamentos xeostratéxicos en todo o mundo para controlar todo tipo de recursos: biolóxicos, minerais, auga, petróleo… Quizais o capitalismo aínda perdure algún tempo pero exacerbando o control a todos os niveis e onde primará aínda máis unha perspectiva curtopracista. Como xa aconteceu noutros momentos da historia (o fin do Imperio Romano), aínda ao borde do colapso moita xente non era (ou non quería ser) consciente do que estaba a suceder e posiblemente só se decatou (ou admitiuno) cando xa este desaparecera. Outro autor C.Lévy-Leboyer (nun libro publicado en español en 1985) Psicología y medio ambiente, fai referencia á percepción de risco ambiental. Fala da tendencia a que de forma espontánea os afectados dunha catástrofe se instalen no mesmo lugar (como sucederá en Haití e xa sucedeu noutros lugares). Segundo algúns estudos aos que menciona, isto débese a tres razóns: as vantaxes obxectivas desas rexións, a pasividade natural dos individuos que non superan as dificultades materiais da instalación noutra zona e a subestimación dos riscos. Neste último caso non se cre que se volva a dar a catástrofe (aínda que admitan que xa aconteceu más veces no pasado), ou ben reducen a importancia do risco sinalando a rareza e confiando en forzas protectoras cuxo modo de acción é impreciso (os capitalistas?). En definitiva, interpretan a realidade e fórxanse un sentimento de seguridade que non descansa nunha análise obxectiva da realidade. E engado. Dado que o uso de enerxía na actualidade pode ser (e é) considerado como unha adición, poderíamos dicir que tamén hai mecanismos psicolóxicos de negación semellantes aos dunha persoa con problemas de adicción. Despois dunha crise o adicto (consumidor enerxético) insiste en volver à adicción (usar enerxía), debido á negación do seu problema (ou autoengano) que pretende separar ao adicto (consumidor de enerxía) das consecuencias na súa vida. Esta negación pode supor ademais a minimización do problema, restándolle importancia aos eventos relacionados coas consecuencias da adición (o teito do petróleo). Tamén racionalizando o problema, asignando unha razón lóxica a algo que non a ten ou que é irrazonábel (xa se descubrirá algo para salvar o sistema capitalista, ou supor o descubrimento dunha fonte enerxética que non respecta a termodinámica). Aí queda iso, para a reflexión e o debate, e para a acción necesaria, coido eu, conxunta coas forzas políticas con vocación de trasformación social. Iremos arriquecendo o debate cos vosos comentarios e outras achegas dos nosos afiliados.

Ao final vai resultar que si que se acaba o petróleo…

(Esta entrada podería tamén terse titulado A enganosa curva de Hubbert ou É a enerxía neta, ¡estúpidos! parafraseando a George Mobus.) Levo tempo preocupado -como outra xente- polo efecto da caída da taxa de rendemento enerxético (TRE ou EROI en inglés) na era do petróleo escaso que comeza tras o Teito do petróleo. Desque escoitei ao noso compañeiro Xoán Doldán -un dos referentes da Economía Ecolóxica en Galiza- falar do tema e vin as gráficas que practicamente poñían no 2015 o momento en que costará máis enerxía poñer a disposición da sociedade un barril de petróleo (extracción, refino, transporte) que a propia enerxía que ese barril achega, non deixo de darlle voltas ás implicacións que isto ten para os que tentamos albiscar cómo será a transición a un mundo sen esta materia de incomparable utilidade enerxética. Parece que todos concordan en que a TRE está caendo de maneira irremediable. Que efectos ten isto na Transición da que tanto falamos os que pescudamos nisto do Teito do Petróleo? A primeira luz a esta cuestión deuma Doly García, a matemática de orixe galega que fixo unha necesaria corrección aos famosos modelos matemáticos que deron pé ao informe Limits to Growth (que xa vai pola súa terceira actualización). García fixo que o modelo tivese en conta que o petróleo non é un recurso máis e que a evolución imparable á baixa do seu rendemento enerxético (baseado no principio económico de best first: o primeiro petróleo que se extrae é o máis barato en termos económicos, é dicir, o de máis poder enerxético) ten un efecto determinante sobre a utilidade real das cantidades de petróleo que se poñen a disposición da economía mundial. García de feito achegoume algo moi valioso para a miña reflexión e os meus cálculos: unha función que estima a evolución do rendemento enerxético en función do petróleo que queda en cada momento. Outra xente tiña feito cálculos semellantes aos meus e inclúo tamén algunhas das súas gráficas. A conclusión é dramaticamente obvia: a aba dereita da curva de Hubbert, é dicir, a segunda metade do petróleo, non vai ser a efectos prácticos simétrica como di a teoría do agora afamado xeólogo e como nos presentan as máis coñecidas gráficas sobre o peak-oil, que mesmo representan unha pendente máis suave na parte dereita cá na esquerda. Quere dicir isto que aínda que nos quede o 50% de todo o petróleo existente (se cadra non está de máis lembrar que hai unha cantidade finita de petróleo no planeta e non se pode fabricar máis), non quere dicir que vaiamos a dispoñer cada ano de cantidades paralelas ás que obtivemos na fase ascendente da curva. Por que? Simplemente porque a enerxía neta (calidade) que obteremos deses barriles será cada vez menor, seguindo unha curva exponencial que multiplicará a súa deceleración á propia curva de caída da función que Hubbert predicía para a cantidade de petróleo por producir. Se observamos o gráfico de David Murphy publicado en The Oil Drum, veremos a alarmante asimetría a efectos de enerxía neta (é dicir: útil) que fornecerá o petróleo a partir do Teito: a enerxía equivalente á que nos daba en 1970 (50% da que nos dá actualmente) xa non será a que teremos en 2035, senón en 2020; e para 2030 xa teremos que apañarnos con non máis enerxía petroleira da que tiñan en 1920!! Isto contradí de maneira contundente os prantexamentos dalgúns autores (p.ex. John Michael Greer, co seu The Long Descent) que albiscan un lento decrecer enerxético ao longo do que resta de século e falan mesmo de xeracións ata que abandonemos de todo o uso do petróleo. Aquí é moi significativa a evolución de David Holmgren, o co-fundador do concepto da Permacultura que tan pertinente é á hora de abordar un novo modelo de vida e produción despetrolizado. Non hai moitos anos, no seu libro acerca dos principios teóricos da Permacultura (Permaculture. Principles and Pathways beyond sustainability) Holmgren tamén nos falaba dun longo proceso que faría que os nosos netos ou bisnetos tivesen que vivir sen ese tesouro do petróleo que tan doadas nos fixo as cousas á nosa especie durante apenas 150 anos. Porén, no seu recente Future Scenarios. How communities can adapt to Peak Oil and Climate Change (2009), un Holmgren máis actualizado na cuestión da TRE afirma (p. 50): As implicacións desta información [acerca da evolución do retorno ou rendemento enerxético] son tan impactantes que a inxenua e simplista idea de que se nos acaban o petróleo e o gas natural (no canto de que estamos no teito da súa produción) pode estar máis preto da realidade do que mesmo os máis pesimistas propoñentes do teito do petróleo anunciaban hai unha década. De aí o título que escollín para este post: en realidade o petróleo non se nos acaba, pero vai ser como se fose así, porque non o imos dar extraído, trasportado, refinado… Enerxeticamente vainos resultar demasiado custoso. E a velocidade á que nos diriximos cara a ese escenario é moi elevada. O comezo da Derradeira Gran Depresión (porque a economía mundial xa non terá nunca máis combustible de abondo para recuperar os niveis anteriores) deunos unha tregua moi enganosa nesta cuestión, que nos vai resultar peor a nivel civilizatorio, porque nos agachará a realidade durante máis tempo (unha billa medio pechada lanza máis tarde o aviso de que o viño no pipo se vai acabando). Cando sexa evidente que non hai petróleo asequible suficiente será demasiado tarde: temos toda unha civilización montada a medida desta materia única! Así, cando a maquinaria da economía mundial queira remontar, demandará máis petróleo, que custará máis ca nunca poñer no mercado. O efecto económico é inevitable: outro pico por riba dos 100 dólares/barril ou mesmo dos 150. E a conseguinte nova fochanca financeiro-produtiva. E unha nova caída dos prezos do petróleo cando se contraia a demanda unha vez máis como consecuencia desta nova suba, pero rebotando de novo cada vez nun nivel de prezos máis alto (desta volta foi nos 40 dólares, o duplo do seu nivel medio durante máis de 20 anos!). A elevación en forma de dentes de serra é algo que dan por descontado practicamente todos os analistas do peak-oil. Pero non todos parecen contar con que ao longo de todo este proceso haberá algo que non deixará de seguir un inexorable camiño: a descendente TRE. Algúns autores teñen marcado nunha TRE igual a 3 o punto crítico por baixo do cal xa será imposible manter unha sociedade de tipo industrial como a actual. Outros sitúano en 5. Obter menos de 5, 4 ou 3 barriles por cada barril de enerxía que gastamos non é de abondo para manter unha complexidade estrutural semellante á actual, advirten. Sen o masivo trasporte actual, sen as institucións e servizos públicos, sen o vasto tecido empresarial e comercial, sen a versátil produción petroquímica (agroquímicos incluídos), a nosa especie retrocederá a un estado agrícola de baixo consumo enerxético e sumamente local, se cadra con illotes tecnolóxicos de industrias críticas ao servizo dunha élite (coido que de tipo fascista ou neofeudal) que manterá os seus privilexios para flotar por riba dun mar de caos social. O informe Hirsch para o goberno estadounidense marcaba nun mínimo de 20 anos o periodo necesario antes de que chegase o teito do petróleo, para acometer de maneira dirixida e planificada unha trasformación nunca antes vista na nosa Historia. Pero o Teito da enerxía neta chegou xa, con toda probabilidade segundo apuntan os expertos, e non tivemos nin un só minuto de anticipación para tomar medidas desta magnitude. George Mobus explica (vid. gráfica anterior) que a situación financeira está absolutamente influída polo fenómeno da enerxía neta decrecente que sostén a economía e afirma que non é ético seguir concedendo créditos en base a imposibles crecementos económicos futuros: non só porque non se vaian poder pagar os xuros, senón porque o principal dos préstamos tampouco será posible devolvelo nun contexto de enerxía neta en caída libre. Segundo esta análise só nos queda un lustro ou dous para ver como o petróleo deixa de alimentar o tecido industrial e a sociedade consumista mundial. A preparación dirixida desde o poder parece algo ilusorio visto por unha banda o resultado do cumio de Conpenhague sobre un problema do que levamos décadas sabendo, e por outra polas afirmacións cada vez máis sólidas (Colin Campbell, Michael Ruppert) de que os gobernos dos países máis poderosos levan tempo sendo conscientes do que se achega e ocultándoo do coñecemento público. Moito me temo que non teremos tempo para un longo descenso (John Michael Greer), para a adopción de Protocolos internacionais como o de Uppsala (Colin Campbell, Richard Heinberg) ou para pausadas Transicións municipais (Rob Hopkins, PostCarbon Cities) e que bateremos bruscamente cun escenario de obrigada reconstrución social desde abaixo baseándonos nos restos dunha civilización en ruínas e nunha recuperación dos xeitos de vida sustentables que a nosa especie abandonou por un breve lapso de 150 anos para converterse en detritívora, crendo que podería crecer exponencialmente coma un cancro para sempre sobre unha biosfera finita; un periodo que os historiadores da fin de século poderán chamar a Era do Homo Colossus (William Catton), a Era do Petróleo ou simplemente a Era da Estupidez. …Iso se saen algúns ou algunhas do pescozo de botella evolutivo ao que nos encamiñamos (Catton de novo) con gañas e recursos para adicarse á profesión de historiadores nalgún tipo de modestísima universidade do futuro.

Manuel Amigo: “Debemos espallar sementes de Transición no noso entorno”

Na lista de correo da nosa asociación levamos uns días mantendo con Manuel Amigo un interesante debate acerca da conveniencia de poñermos en marcha experiencias comunitarias de tipo ecoaldea (eu prefiro o termo comunidades locais sustentables) para comezar a impulsar a necesaria viraxe, transición, tránsito ou como o que queiramos chamar, cara unha Galiza sustentable, diante da fin do crecemento e do maior ou menor colapso social e económico derivado da fin da enerxía barata. Eu propuxen considerarmos o que denominei comunidades dispersas como un modelo máis acaído co da típica ecoaldea compacta concentrada nun determinado lugar e separada da súa contorna. A coxuntura socioeconómica previsible a medio prazo, fai que sexa interesante considerar un modelo alternativo e novidoso con respecto ao clásico modelo de las ecoaldeas e comunidades intencionais: poderiamos denominalo comunidade dispersa ou polinucleada. Caracterizaríase por non concentrar todos os seus membros nun área habitacional compacta (un lugar ou conxunto de casas), senón que estarían repartidos e inmersos na estrutura poboacional dun área maior, p.ex. unha parroquia. Considero que distancias maiores (>4 ou 5 Km) xa non son viables. Hai que atopar un equilibrio entre a dispersión vantaxosa e a cercanía eficiente. Por que este novo modelo? Vexamos algúns criterios que a poderían xustificar: Factores a prol da viabilidade dunha comunidade dispersa Todas as ecoaldeas ou comunidades semellantes creadas ata o de agora tiveron que enfrontarse a unha sociedade que as rodeaba e que evoluía en sentido oposto a elas. O seu entorno era hostil e mesmo iso causaba sangría de membros ou construía un muro difícil de saltar para os potenciais novos membros. A sociedade funcionaba en parámetros contrarios… e funcionaba en apariencia ben. Polo tanto a evolución do seu entorno social ía en sentido contrario. Por contra, achámonos agora nun contexto radicalmente novo e inédito na historia deste tipo de comunidades: de contado (meses? uns poucos anos como moito?) a sociedade deberase mover cara á sustentabilidade e o decrecemento porque non lle quedará outra, polo menos á inmensa maioría da sociedade. É dicir, unha comunidade que adiante consciente, voluntaria e planificadamente esa evolución ou transformación, será vista cada vez máis como un referente, unha fonte de ideas e un modelo do que aprender e que replicar. Isto troca moitas das concepcións sobre as que se debería basear unha comunidade deste tipo, que xa non deberá construír un valado para se protexer dun entorno hostil que evolúe en sentido contrario, senón que atopará cada vez máis veciños chamando ás súas portas e ampliando de facto o perímetro de influencia do proxecto e das súas xentes. Se a comunidade non está concentrada senón que está esparexida nun entorno relativamente amplo, o seu perímetro de contacto con esta sociedade cambiante e á procura de solucións sustentables para a supervivencia será maior e a permeación, meirande. Manuel Amigo, empresario concienciado coa sustentabilidade do noso país e pioneiro en cuestións de combustibles sustentables, amósanos que non soamente é quen de explicarlle a calquera con palabras simples, moita retranca e absoluta claridade a conxuntura económica que vivimos, senón que tamén leva feito un lúcido proceso de reflexión persoal acerca do camiño que pode ou debe seguir esa Transición nunha sociedade como a galega. Compartimos aquí co seu permiso algunhas das súas intervencións neste debate, a xeito de conclusións que dan pé a continuarmos un debate frutífero aberto a todos os galegos e galegas preocupados por estas cuestións, que podemos continuar mediante comentarios ao pé desta mesma página e tamén no grupo de Volta ao Campo na rede social Sementeira: Esta conversa fíxome decatarme de cousas que temos mesmo diante dos fuciños. Tendo como teño eu a inmensa vantaxe de vivir nun punto do rural galego e despois de analizar polo miudo este tema cheguei a conclusión de que vivindo no rural non tes falta de facer un cambio de residencia ou trasladarte a outro sitio para conquerir cousas que tes no teu propio lugar de residencia. Logo de darlle moitas voltas analicei que cousas me fan falla para facer a transición ó rural: a máis importante é vivir no rural e eu xa vivo no rural, teño acceso a leiras da miña familia que están a monte, e si non as tivera podo arrendar terrenos para cultivar por precios irrisorios, teño servicios sociais preto, teño unha das feiras máis importantes de Galicia e que aínda conserva certo apoxeo… Conclusión: calquer persona que viva en Galicia ten máis de tres cuartas partes do camiño cara ó rural feito porque en realidade NUNCA deixou o rural. A xente que reside en núcleos urbanos total e absolutamente insostibles, é posible que se organicen e tomen a iniciativa de voltar ó campo e que o fagan con modos de organización como os que Casdeiro expón [refírese ao da comunidade local sustentable]. Penso que maiormente xerá xente xoven con inquitudes ecoloxistas que aplicaran os coñecementos que teñen, xente queimada do xeito urbano de vivir que é posibel que creen ecoguetos aislandose absurdamente do mundo que os rodea. Virán posiblemnte de grandes urbes. O concepto de ecogueto surdiu acordándome dos fracasos de experimentos de ecoaldeas sobre os que temos debatido. Un gueto créase cando se intenta separar voluntaria ou obrigadamente a un grupo social distinto, ben sexa por relixión, por raza, por estrato social ou por costumes. Entón a nosa máxima debe ser a non excluír, senón conquerir que a maior parte da sociedade escomence a transición servíndolle como orientadores: ó fin e ó cabo a inmensa maioria da sociedade vai ter que acabar vindo ó noso. Para a transición en Galicia penso que é o noso deber crear un Manual novo partindo da base que só por vivir en Galicia temos tres cuartas partes do camiño feito, en calquer lugar de Galicia. Entendo que debemos descartar o tema da ecoaldea e debemos de espallar sementes de transición dentro noso entorno: predicar co exemplo, facer cousas para que as vexan, colaborar cos veciños, e sobor de todo recuperar a tradición e dar a coñecer ese nivel de tecnoloxía de baixo impacto que tanto millorará nosa calidade de vida. Falo de construción bioclimática, enerxías alternativas, permacultura, xeitos ecolóxicos de agricultura, etc. etc. O outro día en pleno temporal de neve saíron na TVE uns vellinos da montaña de Lugo aislados pola neve ó redor da lareira, tomando un viño e comendo castañas mentres escoitaban a un patrón que tocaba a gaita. NUNCA fixeron outra cousa que foxe esta en toda a súa vida nos invernos. É dicir: esta xente non ten que facer ningunha transición porque nunca chegaron ó noso nivel de consumo.

Peaknik (Twitter)

Peaknik: Solastalgia = comfort + pain "experienced pain when our home is under ecological assault". http://nyti.ms/dg0kMz also see Gregory Bateson

Peaknik: Solastalgia = comfort + pain "experienced pain when our home is under ecological assault". http://nyti.ms/dg0kMz also see Gregory Bateson

Peaknik: Perpetual economic growth only an extrapolation from history, not a law of nature. Study on IPCC scenarios & Peak OIl http://bit.ly/buaoH9

Peaknik: Perpetual economic growth only an extrapolation from history, not a law of nature. Study on IPCC scenarios & Peak OIl http://bit.ly/buaoH9

Peaknik: @danieltercero Aquí tienes algunas respuestas: http://ow.ly/1b8bM, los españoles saben menos de la media eu sobre nucleares

Peaknik: @danieltercero Aquí tienes algunas respuestas: http://ow.ly/1b8bM, los españoles saben menos de la media eu sobre nucleares

Peaknik: Forget Jesus! The stars died so you can be here today via http://bit.ly/FTS57 & http://bit.ly/aQ80FG (Spanish language link)

Peaknik: Forget Jesus! The stars died so you can be here today via http://bit.ly/FTS57 & http://bit.ly/aQ80FG (Spanish language link)

Peaknik: Bill Gates "gets" energy through Vaclav Smil's books. Smil is THE energy erudite http://bit.ly/4ThBi3

Peaknik: Bill Gates "gets" energy through Vaclav Smil's books. Smil is THE energy erudite http://bit.ly/4ThBi3

Ni nuclear ni otras

Irse de peaknik con una caravana

Para aquellos que se han extrañado un poco de que desapareciera casi de repente después de la actividad bloguera (y en Internet y fuera de él en general) de los últimos años, una simple explicación: necesito trabajar de vez en cuando como todo hijo de vecino.¿Y de qué puede trabajar un peakoilista? Pues restaurando caravanas viejecitas.¿Que qué tiene que ver con el tema de las energías y su escasez, y su relación con el crecimiento demográfico exponencial? Pues... por ejemplo que una caravana es para irse de peaknik*.También puede ser una caravana un sitio donde vivir fuera de la gran ciudad cuando tienes pocos recursos (bien sea por mala suerte, bien porque te apetezca tener poca cosa incluido pocos quebraderos de cabeza).También puede ser una manera barata de escapar los fines de semana al campo sin tener que pagar hoteles y restaurantes todo el tiempo, pues llevas contigo cocina, nevera y lavabo. De ninguna manera recomiendo, sin embargo, viajar distancias largas innecesariamente y por capricho, seguro que en tu región hay lugares preciosos donde pernoctar de vez en cuando; de lo contrario perdemos por un lado lo que ganamos por el otro.Y por último, puede ser una buena base de experimentación con los sistemas de recaptación de energía (las supuestamente renovables, alternativas y bla, bla...). La vida en una caravana es normalmente una vida de sencillo: los grifos emanan pocos litros por minuto (más bien por hora en una caravana), las luces interiores son pequeñitas y tenues, no hay espacio para muchos aparatos consumidores de energía, la nevera está reducida a la mínima expresión, también el extractor de humo dado el tamaño de la misma cocina... Así hay pie para consumir poco gas y electricidad.Ahora falta ver si se puede llegar, de manera razonablemente sencilla, a ser totalmente autónomo (en la recaptación de la energía, obviamente difícil será en la fabricación de los sistemas) con ese bajo nivel de consumo. Porque lo de decimosegundos con ascensor y aire acondicionado absolutamente autónomos ya hemos visto en estos últimos años que va a ser que no, por lo menos por ahora.Trataré de ir probando, con el tiempo, de diseñar sistemas de alimentación energéticos para una caravana, de manera que se pudiera vivir en ella permanentemente sin necesitar, para cocinar, iluminarse, calentarse e higiene, de electricidad de la red ni gas. Al final va a ser que no se puede tampoco sin tener que acudir a un sinfín de sistemas complejos, y va a ser que sí si nos conformamos con otro estilo de vida, pero eso lo iremos viendo sobre la marcha...Mientras tanto, no he olvidado plenamente la actividad informativa, alguna charla acaba cayendo de vez en cuando, volveré a pasarme en cualquier momento por Radio-Alaquàs, en Menorca estamos esperando para una semana de éstas el reconocimiento del cénit de los fósiles por parte de las autoridades... Y de vez en cuando apareceré por aquí.Saludos a todos.*Para quien no lo haya captado, es un chiste --o no--, construido con el anglicismo peaknik, que es aquella persona muy interesada por el cénit (peak en inglés) del petróleo, y por su similitud con la palabra pícnic, que es una comida en el campo.

2 tuyas y 1 mía, 3 para cada uno

Que la mayoría de periodistas no pueden informarnos de cuánto consumimos o dejamos de consumir, porque no comprenden de qué se trata si se incluye la palabra vatio, y así tampoco pueden hacerlo comprender, ya lo hemos visto muchas veces. En una noticia reciente, donde se saca a relucir el supuesto ahorro de la convocatoria de apagón del pasado sábado (el enésimo apagón voluntario, éste de una hora, ya no de cinco minutos, será para que nos vayamos acostumbrando...) se vuelve a confundir el término, pues dice«en Mallorca y Menorca la bajada fue de 6,96 megavatios de los casi 700 totales consumidos en esa franja horaria»y en una franja de tiempo no pueden consumirse megavatios, sino megavatioshora. En todo caso, y siempre que sí fueran megavatios, debería decir «de los casi 700 demandados en el momento álgido de esa franja horaria».Pero lo que podíamos sospechar y hoy confirmar, además, es que algunos tampoco conocen los fundamentos más elementales de las matemáticas. En la misma noticia dice que el apagón de una hora«ha permitido un ahorro del 1,03% de energía en el sistema Mallorca-Menorca, y de un 2,35% en el Ibiza-Formentera»De esos datos podríamos sacar la media, por ejemplo teniendo en cuenta la población de la islas gimnesias por un lado (864.000 personas según la Wikipedia) y la de las pitiusas por otro (119.000). La cifra resultante sería algo entre el 1,03% de unas y el 2,35% de las otras, evidentemente. Tanto da para el caso (bueno, en realidad es 1,19%), el tema es que el periodista no sabe hacer tal faena, ya no porque no supiera buscar los datos de población y hacer las correspondientes operaciones [(864.000 x 1,03 + 119.000 x 2,35) / (864.000 + 119.000)], sino porque al parecer cree en realidad que la media se hace ¡sumando las dos cifras, directamente!, y así ha titulado la noticia: El 'apagón' permite un ahorro del 3,38% del consumo eléctrico en Baleares.Ojú.

5 minutos de silencio eléctrico

Publicado en Última Hora Menorca el 13-2-09Resulta que está circulando por Internet otra convocatoria, otra más, para un apagón eléctrico voluntario. Reproduzco, faltas de ortografía incluidas, el correo masivo que amablemente me ha hecho llegar el usuario Ciunas para avisarme del ya cansino evento:APAGÓN GENERAL DIA 15 DE FEBREROEl domingo, DIA 15 DE FEBRERO, DIA DEL CONSUMIDOR, apagón general de electricidad en los hogares españoles a las 22 horas en señal de protesta por la subida abusiva que ENDESA ha llevado a cabo en sus tarifas eléctricas.La única forma que tenemos de luchar los consumidores contra estas practicas abusivas, es con medidas como esta por eso os convocamos a seguir esta iniciativa que comenzara a las 22 horas y durara 5 minutos.!!!! OS ROGAMOS QUE LO HAGÁIS PASAR AL MAYOR NUMERO DE CORREOS ELECTRÓNICOS!!!!!......Es curioso que se apunte a Endesa como culpable. ¿Las demás distribuidoras no han variado las tarifas? El que ha escrito ese correo parece que no sabe que no son las distribuidoras las que marcan el precio, sino que la tarifa eléctrica la dicta el Gobierno.Ya comenté los apagoncillos otras veces, por ejemplo en Ya está bien de cambio climático, en Los sacos de lastre de la red eléctrica, en Porque tú lo vales, o en 5 min. de coche = 1.680 apagones, pero incidiré en algunas cosillas que me resultan especialmente curiosas de ésta. Por ejemplo, otros apagones fueron para mostrar preocupación por el cambio climático, ahora ya son razones más mundanas como el precio a pagar por olvidarlo.También que, incluso en el caso de Baleares donde solamente hay un proveedor de electricidad a través de la red general, no podemos quejarnos de que sea exactamente un monopolio eléctrico. Es verdad que es necesario que tengas un sistema eléctrico montado en tu casa, y certificado por un profesional, para que te den una cédula de habitabilidad, pero nadie te obliga a contratar la electricidad a la compañía una vez residas en un edificio.Podrías, por ejemplo, poner un generador a gasóleo en una habitación (bien aisladito para que no moleste a los vecinos y con una buena evacuación de humos, por supuesto), y pasar olímpicamente de la compañía eléctrica. Claro, no es tan cómodo, ni barato. Y probablemente aún contamine más. Y tienes que comprar el combustible a otra macrocorporación, con lo que estás casi en las mismas.Podrías también, por ejemplo, poner un gimnasio de barrio en la planta baja de tu casa, con varias bicicletas estáticas, y aprovechar para que los clientes generen con ellas electricidad y así no comprarla a tu compañía eléctrica. Tampoco es tan cómodo, ni tan fiable como contratarla al servicio habitual.Podrías, por ejemplo, comprar 30 baterías de camión, y hablar con camioneros para que las recarguen mientras trabajan: te las traigan al 100% de su capacidad y se las devuelvas con la suficiente carga como para arrancar simplemente el camión un par de veces, y así se carguen de nuevo mientras conducen habitualmente. Un coñazo, y seguramente una solución cara.Puedes poner un molino en el jardín, (previo comprarte un chalé, claro), o muchas placas fotovoltaicas, pero ya sabemos lo ineficientes que son y lo caros que resultan.Contratar la electricidad es más cómodo, fiable, barato, y en algunos casos limpio, que obtener electricidad por muchos otros medios. Pero esos otros medios, haberlos haylos, así que no podemos decir que la compañía eléctrica practique un monopolio.Por otro lado no solemos quejarnos de la mayoría de los monopolios que nos acosan, porque no hay motivo para ello. Por ejemplo, ¿cuántas empresas nos nutren de aeropuertos en Menorca? Una, Acciona. ¿Sería siquiera deseable que otras tres empresas mantuvieran otros tres aeropuertos operativos más, sólo por el hecho de que haya una sana competencia? Evidentemente no, no sería rentable al final ninguno de ellos y nos quedaríamos sin aeropuertos y tendríamos que coger el barco para salir, de Acciona también, dicho sea de paso.Pero principalmente, respecto a la convocatoria. Imaginemos que queremos sabotear el negocio de McDonalds, en protesta por sus abusivas subidas de precio, no comprándoles hamburguesas ¡un cierto día durante cinco minutos! Absurdo.Es como un minuto de silencio por el hambre de África, justo antes de pitar el inicio del partido que jugarán 22 galácticos del futbol que juntos mueven, tan bien como el balón, sumas de dinero que significarían el PIB de algún que otro de esos países famélicos. Absurdo.Ya me imagino a más de uno en su casa: con la bombilla de bajo consumo de la sala de estar apagada, mientras en esos cinco minutos siguen los radiadores de aceite en marcha, el termo recuperándose de la ducha diaria (y conozco al menos un caso de tres duchas diarias), la nevera enfriándose tras haber abierto la puerta del descongelador para sacar lo que en esos cinco minutos, y otros quince, se estará calentando en el microondas, con la lavadora-secadora a unos miles de revoluciones por minuto y el PC «delinquiendo» a través de la mula; pero con la bombilla apagada.Es el consumo diario lo que cuenta, no el puntual de cinco minutos.

Jornadas energéticas en Baleares

La Direcció General d'Energia del Govern de les Illes Balears organiza unas interesantes jornadas sobre temas energéticos para los días 4 y 5 de marzo de 2009 con el título La crisi energètica, anàlisi del fenòmen i debat sobre alternatives de futur, en las que participarán, entre otros, Pedro Prieto y Daniel Gómez de AEREN, a celebrar en Palma de Mallorca. El programa y más detalles en la web de la CAIB.

Supermillonarios todos

Publicado en Última Hora Menorca el 20-2-09Me ha llegado una presentación de diapositivas por Internet de las que no dejan indiferente. Con unos sencillos cálculos muestra cómo el rescate bancario español le está costando al contribuyente 614 millones de euros por cabeza. Como lo leen, 614 millones por barba. Y el de EEUU peor: repartido entre los 6.700 millones de habitantes del planeta, 114 millones de dólares por persona. Mucho dinero. Lástima que el que ha hecho el pabuerpóin no está muy ducho en matemáticas y que, según las propias cifras de la presentación resulta que sobran por todas partes los millones: son 614 euros por español y 104 dólares por habitante del planeta.Que no digo que sea poco dinero, 104 dólares darían para doblar el jornal de tres meses de esa gran parte de la población mundial que viven con menos de un dólar al día.Lo que me asombra no es que alguna gente no sepa contar cuando las cifras llevan más de tres o cuatro ceros; o que a veces ni siquiera distinga un millón, de mil millones, de un billón (me asombra tan poco esto último que, en el cajón de cosas por publicar, tenía un post dedicado casi íntegramente a esto, que publico acto seguido).Pero ¿qué creen acaso que podríamos comprar todos con tantos billetes o apuntes en cuentas? Sorprende, ahí sí, que haya gente tan estúpida como para creer que eso nos llevaría a la felicidad eterna. Sorprende que haya gente tan estúpida que crea que entonces ya todos podríamos tener un castillo, tres aviones reactores, doce yates, veintitrés Ferraris, ochenta y cinco pantallas de plasma de sesenta pulgadas, mil cuatrocientos veintisiete Ipods y trecientos cuarenta y nueve millones, setecientos dos mil, catorce viajes a las Bahamas. Lo puse en palabras y no en cifras por si me lee alguno de ellos.Que no se les vaya a convertir el deseo en realidad... y aquí ocurra como en Zimbabwe y les dé por arrancar la máquina que pinta ceros sobre los billetes: luego seremos todos ¡supermillonarios! Yupi.

(Varias fuentes)

The next crisis: prepare for peak oil - WSJ.com

Society ignores the oil crunch at its peril | Jeremy Leggett | Environment | guardian.co.uk

Warnings of a crash in oil production are no longer limited to a prescient few individuals - major British companies and oil CEOs are now sounding the alert

Peak oil in Davos: Oh yes it is, oh no it isn't. « Aleklett's Energy Mix

Crackers atacan empresas petroleras en busca de información sobre las reservas de petróleo

Advierten de que el cénit del petróleo traerá una localización de los mercados

Urge informarse sobre el cénit, sobre todo los líderes; evaluar el nivel de riesgo que puede suponer y prepararse para ello; replantear los conceptos sobre competitividad e informarse de alternativas e iniciativas reales a nivel local e implementarlas

ASPO International

Petrobras envisions peak in 2010

Mr. Gabrielli, the CEO of Petrobras, gave a presentation in December 2009 in which he shows world oil capacity, including biofuels, peaking in 2010 due to oil capacity additions from new projects being unable to offset world oil decline rates. Gabrielli states in his presentation that the world needs oil volumes the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every two years to offset future world oil decline rates. This is a stronger statement than the one he gave in January 2009 in an interview with Business Week when he said the following: "According to the company's projections, production from existing fields will fall from a little over 80 million barrels a day to maybe half of that even if new techniques are used to slow their rate of decline. So just keeping global production flat is going to require lots of new fields and requires the world to replace one Saudi Arabia per three years." Gabrielli is clearly concerned about declining future world oil production. read more

Branson warns that oil crunch is coming within five years

Sir Richard Branson and fellow leading businessmen will warn ministers this week that the world is running out of oil and faces an oil crunch within five years. The founder of the Virgin group, whose rail, airline and travel companies are sensitive to energy prices, will say that the ­coming crisis could be even more serious than the credit crunch. "Our message to government and businesses is clear: act," he says in a foreword to a new report on the crisis. "Don't let the oil crunch catch us out in the way that the credit crunch did." Read more: The Guardian Additional reading: The Oil Crunch Report by UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security

Peak oil in Davos: Oh yes it is, oh no it isn't.

Kjell Aleklett, President of ASPO International The title above was borrowed from the Financial Times. Last week the World Economic Forum in Davos celebrated its 40th anniversary and one of the sessions addressed the world's energy security. The chairperson for the session was Daniel Yergin, the founder of CERA (Cambridge Energy Research Associates). Before his departure to Davos the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) wrote: "All the world loves a bringer of good news, so energy guru Daniel Yergin should by all rights be guaranteed a warm welcome at Davos this week". The news that he bore with him was that "the awful day of 'peak oil', when the world will have depleted its finite hydrocarbon resources to the point where it can never again increase production, is still a long way off". read more

The OPEC bulletin and focus on Angola

A magazine that regularly falls into ASPO's letterbox is "OPEC Bulletin". According to their advertising a yearly subscription costs $70, but the fact that it comes to ASPO without a subscription shows that OPEC has prioritized ASPO in its address list. The latest issue, number 9 for 2009, has focused on Angola. But before I address Angola I want to mention a few of the other articles. Like it or not, oil exports from OPEC will be completely decisive for the future of the OECD nations. When reading the OPEC Bulletin ones sees a different angle of approach than one is used to. The latest issue discusses the OPEC meeting that, (when the issue was published), was yet to be held on 22 December in Luanda. The date of the meeting was chosen so that they could discuss the anticipated decisions on climate change from the conference in Copenhagen. They were also waiting for the weather prognoses for the northern hemisphere since a cold winter would contribute to a higher oil price. Of course, OPEC hopes for cold weather since it means more money in the till. One article is about OPEC's new head office in Vienna that is described as "state-of-the-art". read more

US passes Russia as top gas producer

The US overtook Russia as the world's largest natural-gas producer last year as operators tapped unconventional resources while demand in Russia plunged amid the country's worst economic decline on record. "Minimal hurricane disruptions and significant growth in production from onshore shale basins have contributed to the increase in domestic supply," the Department of Energy's Energy Information Agency said on its Web site last month. Russia's annual gas output fell 12% to 582 billion cubic metres compared to last year. Demand for gas in Russia, the world's largest user of the fuel after the US, contracted last year along with the economy. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said 30 December that annual gross domestic product declined 8.5%, the most since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. Industrial output fell about 11.5%, the Russian Economy Ministry said last month. Read more: Upstream Online

Oil Depletion Protocol

ASPO's Stuart McCarthy on the ODP in QLD

Stuart McCarthy of ASPO Brisbane discusses the recent response to a petition for the state of Queensland to adopt the Oil Depletion Protocol and other Australian peak oil news. Read more.

The Oil Depletion Protocol in Earth Island Journal

Richard Heinberg discusses the Oil Depletion Protocol in the Winter 2007 edition of Earth Island Journal. Click here to read more.

Bush urged to break US oil dependence

By Carola Hoyos in London, Edward Luce in Washington and Krishna Guha in Beijing Published: December 13 2006 22:07 | Last updated: December 13 2006 22:07 The Bush administration should act decisively to break America's dependence on oil, said a group of leading US business executives and senior military officers in a report presented on Wednesday to the White House and Congress. The bipartisan group, which includes the chief executives of Fedex, UPS, Dow Chemicals and some of America's best known retired generals, urged Washington to recognise that "pure market economics will never solve the problem" of US oil dependency. The report poured cold water on the Bush administration's goal of reducing America's dependence on foreign oil, rather than on oil in general. It urged Mr Bush and the new Democrat-controlled Congress to set up a plan to halve the American economy's oil-intensity by 2030. George W. Bush has repeatedly identified "energy independence" and immigration reform as two of the issues most likely to attract bipartisan support following the Republican loss of control of Capitol Hill in mid-term elections last month. "Events affecting supply or demand anywhere will affect consumers everywhere," said the report, brought out by the Energy Security Leadership Council, a think tank. "Exposure to price shocks is a function of how much oil a nation consumes and is not significantly affected by the ratio of "domestic oil" to so-called "foreign oil". The report also warned Mr Bush, who is expected to announce new energy independence measures in his annual State of the Union address to Congress next month, that America's oil dependence makes it acutely vulnerable to terrorist attacks. America's transport system is 97 per cent dependent on oil. More than 90 per cent of world oil supply is controlled by foreign governments. "America must address this critical weakness." Said P.X. Kelley, a retired Marine Corps general. "An oil supply interruption cannot be reasonably dismissed as improbable." However, there is deep-seated scepticism about the willingness of the Bush administration, which has yet to endorse the theory of global warming, to take the tough steps most energy experts say are necessary to reduce America's dependence on oil. Last January Mr Bush declared that America was "addicted to oil". But Mr Bush's announcement was not followed by any significant change in energy strategy. "There is very little reason to believe that the White House will take the tough measures necessary to make this happen," said a Washington-based energy lobbyist. "There is no appetite, say, to impose a carbon tax or for putting a floor under the price of oil that would incentivise investors to put their money into alternative energy." However, the US administration wants to step up co-operation with China on energy efficiency and the use of alternative fuels. Energy and the environment will be among the topics addressed in Friday's final session of the US-China strategic economic dialogue involving top officials meeting in Beijing. The dialogue is the brainchild of Hank Paulson, US Treasury Secretary, who has a strong track record as an environmentalist and is treated with suspicion by some US conservatives as a result. Lack of binding targets for China and other big emerging market countries such as India to limit their greenhouse gas emissions was one of America's principal reasons for refusing to ratify the Kyoto accord. Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2006 See article here.

EU report calls for energy efficiency to be a priority

The Industry and Energy Committee says there should be binding targets for reducing carbon dioxide emissions and on increasing the use of renewable energy sources. These views are set out in a wide ranging report on the Commission's energy strategy proposals, adopted unopposed on Thursday. In its report, drawn up by Eluned Morgan (PES, UK), the committee welcomes the Commission's green paper on a European strategy for sustainable, competitive and secure energy, but stresses that changing conditions in the broader global energy market need to be taken into account. MEPs in the committee want a systematic approach considering production, distribution and consumption in order to develop a policy which secures affordable energy. A binding CO2 target for 2020 and changes in Emissions Trading Scheme  To tackle climate change, MEPs say EU leaders should agree within the next year on a binding CO2 target for 2020 and an indicative one for 2050. They say the existing Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) needs to be changed, to include a move towards auctioning or benchmarking based on output - and also to bring in further emitting sectors including all types of freight transport.  Energy Efficiency to be a priority across the board The report asks the Council and Commission to make the EU the most energy efficient economy in the world by 2020 and to set energy efficiency measures as cross-cutting priority for all EU policy areas. It supports an EU target for energy efficiency improvements of at least 20 per cent by 2020.  MEPs call for an EU strategy on transport energy use, aiming at the phasing out of fossil fuel, a reduction in oil dependency and the gradual introduction of  clean energy. Targets for renewables supported - nuclear power is up to Member States In order to help diversify energy sources, the committee says the EU needs a stable long-term policy framework, with  binding sectoral targets for renewables to reach 25 per cent in primary energy by 2020 - and a route map to reach 50 per cent by 2040.  The committee recognises the role that nuclear energy plays in some Member States as part of the energy mix and as a way of avoiding CO2 emissions, but says decisions on the future of nuclear power must be taken by the Member States individually. Consumers at the centre of energy policies MEPs in the committee stress that consumers must be placed at the centre of all future energy policies and that energy poverty should feature more clearly in the Commission's proposals. Consumers should have easy access to price and choice information, to an easy method of switching energy provider and a right to be heard by the regulators in each Member State. EU should speak with one voice with third countries The committee says a common stance vis-à-vis third countries is needed to increase the EU's ability to negotiate with energy producing and consuming countries. The Commissioner responsible for energy should, say MEPs, work to a well defined mandate with a long-term energy planning vision. MEPs urge the Commission and the Member States to take very seriously the real danger of a deficit in gas supplies from Russia after 2010.  They insist on the ratification of the Transit Protocol and the Energy Charter Treaty, which are instrumental in ensuring much needed foreign investment in Russia's energy infrastructure and to assure sufficient gas supply to the EU. 23/11/2006Committee on Industry, Research and EnergyChair : Giles Chichester (EPP-ED, UK) Procedure: Own Initiative ReportPlenary vote: December, Strasbourg Original story here.   

Queensland, Australia petition to adopt the ODP

If you are a resident of Queensland, Australia, click here to read about and sign the petition to Parliament!

The Oil Drum

Welcome to the Permanent Recession -- Food and Transportation Prices Rising

This is a guest post by Brian Gordon. If employment is inversely proportional to oil prices (it is), and oil prices are only going to trend up…then employment by necessity is going down. Because oil is so fundamental to our economy, oil price increases ripple through the entire economy. Take food as an example: current factory farming methods are entirely dependent upon oil from planting to processing to getting the food to market. Certain types of food are also heavily subsidised, especially meat and dairy. Note that these subsidies do not necessarily include oil subsidies, taxpayer-provided roads, subsidised water, and so on. As the price of oil increases, so goes the price of food; in fact this has already been happening in Canada and the United States. Note especially the increase in transportation costs, and both sources cite rises in fuel as a primary driver of inflation, so-to-speak. If we take subsidised, oil-based factory farming prices as our minimum, and locally-grown, unsubsidised, organic (requiring little or no oil) prices as our maximum, in an environment where oil prices are increasing then the prices of factory-grown foods will tend to approach -- and ultimately exceed – those of locally-grown organic. Now, anybody who has done any grocery shopping recently knows that organic produce, meat, and dairy costs considerably more than factory-grown food, sometimes double or more. As the price of oil increases, more shoppers will switch to organic. Why not? If the cost differential evaporates, why not buy organic? There is a big problem with this. Let’s assume this does not drive up the price of organic, because factory farms switch to organic. This is easier said than done, and there are still plenty of oil-based costs (e.g.: for transportation) that will drive up the price of both organic and non-organic food. However, let’s be generous and ignore that. If all food approaches the price of organic food, everyone not currently buying organic will see their food budget increase proportionally. As food is a necessity, cutbacks will be made elsewhere. Entertainment, purchases of non-necessities, etc. will decline, reducing jobs in those sectors. Voila, food price increases translate to lower overall employment, aka a recession. On the plus side, organic agriculture requires more labour and less oil, so there will be jobs there. On the downside, those jobs are typically very hard work for very little pay, which is why we use migrant workers. As long as we continue to do that, there will be unemployed Canadians and Americans with no income to buy the now much more expensive organic produce and animal products. One way for people to compensate will be to eat less meat, as factory-grown meat is far more energy-intensive compared to vegetables, and therefore will be affected more by oil price increases. Compare the price of free range, organic beef to feedlot beef in your local grocery store, for example. Meat is also one of the most heavily subsidised foods, and no doubt there will be considerable pressure on governments to increase subsidies to keep meat prices down. How long that can go on is uncertain. Because Canadian and U.S. governments are already heavily in debt and running deficits, any additional subsidies are added to the national debt and increase the deficit. That is clearly unsustainable, and eventually real food prices will have to be paid. The longer the subsidies remain in place, the greater the ultimate pain. Suggested books if you want to learn more The books below discuss in more detail some of the ideas mentioned in this post. The first book (see Book 1) is Plenty: Eating Locally on the 100-Mile Diet – something the authors found a tremendous challenge. And they live in British Columbia, where far more can be grown than anywhere else in Canada. They found certain foods were simply no longer available. As oil prices rise, locally-grown foods will be favoured, so there are important lessons in this book. Book 1: Plenty: Eating Locally on the 100-Mile Diet The second book (see Book 2) specifically discusses the link between fossil fuels and our food. Pay special attention to the third bullet point… The miracle of the Green Revolution was made possible by cheap fossil fuels to supply crops with artificial fertilizer, pesticides, and irrigation. Estimates of the net energy balance of agriculture in the United States show that ten calories of hydrocarbon energy are required to produce one calorie of food. Such an imbalance cannot continue in a world of diminishing hydrocarbon resources. Eating Fossil Fuels examines the interlinked crises of energy and agriculture and highlights some startling findings: The worldwide expansion of agriculture has appropriated fully 40 percent of the photosynthetic capability of this planet. The Green Revolution provided abundant food sources for many, resulting in a population explosion well in excess of the planet's carrying capacity. Studies suggest that without fossil fuel-based agriculture, the United States could only sustain about two-thirds of its present population. For the planet as a whole, the sustainable number is estimated to be about two billion. Book 2:

Drumbeat: March 9, 2010

Shell's discounted bid for Arrow reflects the present world oversupply of gas The bid and Arrow's decision to take it seriously despite the price discount reflect the much more complicated outlook for gas in the wake of the global financial crisis, and after the development of technology that is capable of doubling the world's gas reserves. There is an awful lot of gas in the ground, enough perhaps to break the nexus between gas prices and oil prices. The peak oil argument that oil prices will rise inexorably as producers fail to bring new production on stream fast enough and cheaply enough to replace diminishing reserves simply does not apply. That knowledge both impels the $3.2 billion offer Shell and PetroChina have launched, and dictates that Arrow take it seriously. Saudi Aramco chief warns of 'green bubbles' Saudi Aramco chief Khalid Al-Falih warned today of "green bubbles" and expressed worry about "assumptions" in the political realm that alternative energy sources could "transform the face of energy overnight". Gazprom Neft Says Russian Taxes Tripping Up Deals, Expansion (Bloomberg) -- OAO Gazprom Neft, the oil arm of Russia's gas export monopoly, said Russian taxes are hindering ventures with international oil companies and are the main obstacle for its expansion at home and abroad. "The main problem is the tax regime," Alexander Pankratov, head of business development at the St. Petersburg- based company, said yesterday in an interview at the CERAWeek conference organized by IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates in Houston. US Crude Outlook - Improving crack spreads give lift HOUSTON (Reuters) - Improving refinery crack spreads could boost feedstock demand and lift cash crude differentials, especially if oil futures back away from the $81 level as many analysts expect, Chevron Drives Upstream Growth with LNG Projects Chevron enters the decade with an upstream portfolio of major capital projects that uniquely positions the company for future growth, executives said today at a meeting with financial analysts in New York. In the downstream business, executives highlighted plans to improve returns by aggressively lowering costs, exiting markets and streamlining the organization. Gabrielli: pre-salt supply chain tight While operating in Brazil's pre-salt region does require an array of technologies, Petrobras CEO Jose Gabrielli told a Houston lunch that a bigger challenge lies in meeting logistical demands for operating in deep waters offshore. During the Brazil-Texas Chamber of Commerce event on 9 March 2010, Gabrielli said it is important to focus on 'the hubs that we must develop for our people and goods 300km from our coastline.' For the pre-salt, he elaborated, 'the main challenge that we have is much more on logistics, on the optimization of the knowledge we have.' The opportunities in pre-salt, he said, are big, but they also require a new hub for suppliers. 'We believe the most important constraint that we may have is in the supply chain,' Gabrielli said. Nigeria May Push for Higher OPEC Oil Quota, NNPC Says (Bloomberg) -- Nigeria may seek to increase its OPEC oil production quota if output remains free from militant disruption, an official from state-owned Nigeria National Petroleum Corp. said today. Chevron cutting 2,000 jobs in refining restructuring NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Chevron Corp. said Tuesday it plans to cut 2,000 jobs this year as part of an effort to realize savings in its refining operations, as the oil major signals that recent woes in the business of making gasoline and diesel fuel will persist well beyond 2010. Sinopec Shanghai Says China Should Raise Fuel Prices (Bloomberg) -- China should increase fuel prices to prevent domestic refiners from incurring losses in March and April, said a unit of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., the country's biggest refiner. Egypt: Petroleum ministry denies diesel shortage Sufficient amounts of diesel are available on the local market as planned, said the Ministry of Petroleum, despite recent overcrowding at gas stations and reports of shortages. Clashes at gas stations as diesel crisis escalates Diesel fuel shortages continued in Cairo and the governorates on Monday, leading to clashes between frustrated drivers lining up outside gas stations. The Petroleum Ministry, however, has denied the existence of any shortfalls in the quantities of diesel fuel supplied to gas stations. Shortages of both 80-octane and 90-octane gasoline have also been reported in a number of governorates. U.S. Sitting on Mother Lode of Rare Tech-Crucial Minerals China supplies most of the rare earth minerals found in technologies such as hybrid cars, wind turbines, computer hard drives and cell phones, but the U.S. has its own largely untapped reserves that could safeguard future tech innovation. Those reserves include deposits of both "light" and "heavy" rare earths -- families of minerals that help make everything from TV displays to magnets in hybrid electric motors. A company called U.S. Rare Earths holds the only known U.S. deposit of heavy rare earths with a concentration worth mining, according to a recent report by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). S.Korea unveils 'recharging road' for eco-friendly buses South Korean researchers Tuesday launched an environmentally friendly public transport system using a "recharging road" -- with a vehicle sucking power magnetically from buried electric strips. The Online Electric Vehicle (OLEV), towing three buses, went into service at an amusement park in southern Seoul. If the prototype proves successful, there are plans to try it out on a bus route in the capital. Short-staffed agency overseeing high-speed-rail effort draws fire WASHINGTON -- The federal agency in charge of $8 billion in economic stimulus spending on high-speed-rail projects doesn't have the staff or expertise to properly oversee the money, government investigators and congressional critics say. The Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), whose main job until now had been keeping freight and passenger railroads safe, awarded the high-speed-rail grants in January -- months later than planned. Libraries Even more useful than the books or activities, though, is the principle behind libraries, that we and our neighbours can pool our resources and hold things in common that all of us occasionally need. Most of the Western World, however, adopted this principle for books and then stopped, never extending it to other obvious areas of life. In fact, the trend of the last few decades has been the opposite -- people bought more and more of their own private stocks of anything, no matter how expensive or little-used: a row of ten family homes might have ten rakes, ten chainsaws, ten barbecue pits and ten Dora the Explorer videos, each of which is used for only a few hours a year. More urbanites have their pick of fresh fruit Last fall, Eric Alperin, a San Francisco artist, heard about blackberries, plums and loquats growing on public property in his city and free for the picking. Armed with bags and a pole device for picking fruit from tall branches, Alperin and his wife went foraging. "It was great," he said. "We picked as much as we could carry and had beautiful, fresh, free city fruit," Alperin said. "I'll definitely go (picking) again." Fruit-picking opportunities like that are becoming more common, as volunteers in cities including Boston, Detroit, Philadelphia and Madison, Wis., mobilize behind a goal of planting fruit trees on public land in city parks and neighborhoods. Agritourism helps Tennessee farms stay in business NASHVILLE -- In a tough year for Tennessee's state budget, the departments of tourism and agriculture have found a mutual silver lining: a boomlet in agricultural tourism. Milking cows (sort of), wandering through corn and cotton mazes, watching chicks hatch, having a country wedding and picking melons are among the activities drawing city folks and their pocketbooks to farms around Tennessee. CERAWeek panel: Developing nations key to future A shifting center of gravity from the developed to the developing world will redefine the energy landscape over the next two decades. That's the theme that emerged from the first panel discussion of this year's IHS Cambridge Energy Research Associates' IHS CERAWeek conference in downtown Houston. The discussion kicked off five days of panels and lectures featuring top energy executives, policy makers and analysts. Growing economies in Asia, particularly China, and the Middle East, will shape the supply and demand dynamic of everything from oil and gas demand to electricity to the development of renewable energy sources. "What will fill the demand?" asked Xizhou Zhou, a China expert with IHS CERA. "The answer to that question is, really, everything." Energy takes stage: CERAWeek offers wealth of information If you're into energy, this week is Christmas in March in Houston. It's CERAWeek, the five-day confab covering all things energy-related. For the cognoscenti, it's brimful of gifts of information and informed opinion. CERAWeek is the brainchild of Daniel Yergin, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money & Power and chairman of IHS-Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA), a leading think tank/consultant on energy topics. CERAWeek offers something for everyone interested in energy -- oil, alternatives, the environment, coal, utilities and on and on for a full five days. But this year our attention will be focused on Wednesday's daylong session on natural gas. And T. Boone Pickens is why. CERAWEEK - FACTBOX: What are the big issues for CERAWeek? (Reuters) - The symbiotic link between oil and the economy will dominate CERAWeek, the CERA consultancy's annual go-to gathering of elite energy and economic figures and thinkers that begins on Monday in Houston. CFTC official wants more energy market transparency Energy commodities regulators worldwide will need to move carefully and cooperatively if they expect to make global oil markets more transparent, US Commodity Futures Trading Commission member Scott D. O'Malia said in Tokyo on Feb. 26. "We have to acknowledge that we've witnessed a paradigm shift in the global oil market over the past decade," he said in remarks to the International Energy Agency and Institute of Energy Economics Japan's Forum on Global Oil Market Challenges. "The paradigm has shifted in two significant ways…. First, oil is now a financial asset and its price movements are correlated to economic growth. Second, the growth in oil demand is being led by developing nations." 2010 energy prospects promising, U.K. firm says Oil and gas services company Petrofac said it was confident for 2010 as it expects further investment in oil and gas projects, after it doubled its order backlog and posted net profit above forecasts in 2009. Pakistan: Power tariff-hike to destroy economy FAISALABAD - Proposed increase of Rs1.2 per unit in electricity tariff would push the cost of exportable items, making Pakistani textiles costly and inflicting loss of millions of dollars. It will also cause closure of more industries as industrial sector will not be able to absorb this shock; leading to more unemployment & poverty in the country. Plans to increase consumption of fuel by 31 percent due to electricity crisis The Venezuelan government plans to increase its fuel consumption by a third in 2010 to fuel thermoelectric plants with which President Hugo Chávez hopes to overcome energy crisis. Officials expect a total consumption of 104 million barrels in 2010, about 285,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (bpd) of fuel oil, diesel and gas, which will be used to increase thermoelectric capacity by 4,000 megawatts (Mw). 'Energy crisis just artificial' MANILA, Philippines - Sen. Richard Gordon said the power crisis in Mindanao is artificial and may be part of a sinister plot, and demanded an explanation from the Arroyo administration. "They should explain why there is a power shortage. From what I have heard -- and I have just been to Mindanao -- the water level in Lanao lake is normal. They just opened up a power plant in Cebu and they will open up a couple more. I don't know what they are talking about," Gordon, Bagumbayan party presidential candidate, told editors and reporters of The STAR yesterday. "They have a lot of explaining to do." East Kalimantan Demand Higher Coal and Gas Supply TEMPO Interactive, Jakarta: East Kalimantan administration pleaded to the central government for more allocation of gas and coal for to meet regional demand for energy. Governor Awang Faroek said on Tuesday (9/3) the province accounts for 54 percent of total national gas production and produces 50 million metric tonnes of coal every year, and "Its not funny if East Kalimantan should experience energy crisis." Green energy revolution expected in Kingdom JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf signalled their intention to kick-start a renewable energy revolution in the region on Monday. A panel of experts at the ongoing Gulf Environment Forum in Jeddah, chaired by Assistant Minister for Petroleum Affairs Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman, said measures were in place to improve the energy mix and finally reduce Middle East dependence on oil. Sarkozy: 'Help poor countries go nuclear in energy crisis' POOR countries should be helped to build their own nuclear power stations to help fight climate change, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said yesterday. His vision won over international energy officials from India to Brussels, and French executives eager to market their expertise abroad, at a Paris conference. But some experts said Mr Sarkozy's push was opening the door to risks of deadly technology getting into the wrong hands, and warned consumers to pay attention to the staggering price tag of potential nuclear energy growth -- up to £2.6 trillion worldwide by 2050. "We need nuclear energy" to meet international goals set for slowing global warming, Mr Sarkozy said. A reactor to make nuclear affordable One of nuclear's biggest drawbacks, though, is the multi-billion-dollar price tag for all those new reactors. From the Marketplace Sustainability Desk, Sarah Gardner reports now on a way to make nuclear affordable. Schools' New Math: the Four-Day Week Four-day weeks have been in place for decades in states like New Mexico, Idaho and Wyoming and initially came about as states were looking to combat growing energy prices. Last week, Pueblo School District 70 in Colorado said it would adopt the schedule next school year for its roughly 8,000 students. The shift has drawn scrutiny from some education and parents groups who say the shorter week hurts students academically and complicates child-care efforts. Mexico Oil Politics Keeps Riches Just Out of Reach VENUSTIANO CARRANZA, Mexico -- To the Mexican people, one of the great achievements in their history was the day their president kicked out foreign oil companies in 1938. Thus, they celebrate March 18 as a civic holiday. Yet today, that 72-year-old act has put Mexico in a straitjacket, one that threatens both the welfare of the country and the oil supply of the United States. The national oil company created after the 1938 seizure, Pemex, is entering a period of turmoil. Oil production in its aging fields is sagging so rapidly that Mexico, long one of the world's top oil-exporting countries, could begin importing oil within the decade. Mexico is among the three leading foreign suppliers of oil to the United States, along with Canada and Saudi Arabia. Mexican barrels can be replaced, but at a cost. It means greater American dependence on unfriendly countries like Venezuela, unstable countries like Nigeria and Iraq, and on the oil sands of Canada, an environmentally destructive form of oil production. "As you lose Mexican oil, you lose a critical supply," said Jeremy M. Martin, director of the energy program at the Institute of the Americas at the University of California, San Diego. "It's not just about energy security but national security, because our neighbor's economic and political well-being is largely linked to its capacity to produce and export oil." Oil drops below $81 after monthlong rally Oil prices dropped sharply to below $81 a barrel Tuesday, due to a stronger dollar and profit taking on a monthlong run fueled by growing investor optimism about global economic growth. Gasoline prices at high for the year Motorists are well down the road to higher pump prices as warmer weather and the driving season approach. Average retail gasoline prices, continuing a surge that started last month, have now matched their 2010 high on the way to prices that many analysts believe will top $3 per gallon this spring. Exxon Lowers Bar, Buys Assets Previously Deemed Unattractive (Bloomberg) -- Exxon Mobil Corp., BP Plc and Total SA are investing in assets that previously weren't worth their time or money after oil-rich nations reduced access to reserves and exploration drilling faltered. Efforts to find new sources of crude and natural gas are failing more often, with San Ramon, California-based Chevron Corp.'s exploration failure rate jumping to 35 percent last year from 10 percent in 2008. Countries such as Venezuela are making it more expensive for companies to develop their resources, if they're allowed in at all. And previously developed fields are drying up, reducing oil companies' future supplies, or reserves. Samsung Heavy Wins Order From Shell for Floating LNG (Bloomberg) -- Samsung Heavy Industries Co. won an order to build a floating natural-gas facility for Royal Dutch Shell Plc, the first deal between the two under a 15-year supply contract signed last year. INTERVIEW - Algeria sees global LNG recovery in 2-3 years ALGIERS (Reuters) - The global slump in demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is temporary and demand will recover within the next two to three years, Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil said in an interview on Monday. "If we look at the long term, definitely from the environmental point of view and from the point of view of satisfying global demand, there is going to be a big need for natural gas," Khelil told Reuters. A conventional fuel, an unconventional future The recent announcement that Korea Gas Corp. would invest $1.1-billion to participate in the development of EnCana's huge gas shale holdings in northeastern British Columbia is another signal that Canada's natural gas industry has entered a profoundly important new stage that, at earlier times, government policies made impossible. Shell's Arrow Bid May Spur Coal-Bed Gas Takeovers (Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc and PetroChina Co.'s A$3.3 billion ($3 billion) bid for Arrow Energy Ltd. may spur more takeovers of Australian producers of coal-bed gas, a growing source of supply for Asian energy importers. Sasol may abandon fuel liquids plant if no govt funding - paper JOHANNESBURG (Reuters) - Petrochemical group Sasol (SOLJ.J) may abandon its planned 80,000 barrel-a-day South African coal-to-liquid Mafutha plant if the government does not help finance it, the Business Day newspaper reported on Tuesday. The paper quoted Sasol Chief Executive Officer Pat Davies as saying the world's top maker of motor fuel from coal would let the government determine its funding component for the project, while the company proceeds with its preparatory works currently in feasibility stage. Mitsui Said to Consider Returning to Singapore Oil Trading (Bloomberg) -- Mitsui & Co., the Japanese trading group that earns half its profit from energy, may restart oil product trading in Singapore after withdrawing from the city- state in 2007, according to two people familiar with the matter. The Tokyo-based company pulled out from Asia's biggest oil- trading center when it shut its Singapore unit Mitsui Oil (Asia) Pte in 2007 after losing $81 million from naphtha transactions hidden by a trader. The cover-up resulted in the imprisonment of three former employees by Singapore courts last year. Time for 'bold action' to reduce oil use in Greater Sudbury Canada's economy is highly dependent on oil. Many Canadians believe western Canada's oil sands deposits will be our salvation. The oil sands, however, are a major atmospheric carbon emitter, which will exacerbate global climate change significantly, while also fouling the region's water supply. Should we all be driving hybrids to prepare for the impending high oil prices and volatility? Perhaps, but the report asserts, "There is real danger that the focus on technological advances in cars is making consumers and governments complacent." EPA probes whether shale gas drilling contaminates water supplies The top U.S. environmental regulator said she was "very concerned" about fluids blamed by some for polluting water supplies near sites where drillers use them to extract natural gas from shale deposits. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency chief Lisa Jackson said she hopes her agency will launch a study this year into the nature of fluids used in the hydraulic fracturing process of natural gas drilling. Fracking Fluids Part I: A controversy coming to an energy investment near you The controversy surrounding fracking fluids is getting louder. Websites and media savvy organizations are getting more press on this issue, using a very simple and powerful pitch -- are the chemicals used in fracking fluids in oil and gas wells contaminating our drinking water? North American investors have not been directly hit by this issue yet, meaning that a company's stock hasn't plummeted because they had to stop drilling over these concerns -- yet. Challenging conventional wisdom on renewable energy's limits In making the case for a rapid conversion away from heavily polluting energy sources like coal and nuclear power to cleaner generation, renewable energy advocates often confront the argument that their scheme is impossible due to the intermittent nature of sun and wind. But a groundbreaking study out of North Carolina challenges that conventional wisdom: It suggests that backup generation requirements would be modest for a system based largely on solar and wind power, combined with efficiency, hydroelectric power, and other renewable sources like landfill gas. Tuning the energy innovation engine at MIT BOSTON--The MIT Energy Conference here on Saturday covered a little bit of everything--"China speed," climate change, financing gaps, government policy, nuclear and natural gas, and, of course, science experiments--as entrepreneurs, business people, and academics tried to get their arms around big-picture energy challenges. The Massachusetts Institute of Technology has become a hotbed for clean-energy innovation over the past four years, attracting students and faculty to the field, some of whom have spun out promising companies. I.B.M. Opens Energy Lab in Beijing In another sign of China's emergence as an epicenter of green technology, I.B.M. has opened a lab in Beijing to develop smart grid software for the global market. IEA: safety, non-proliferation key premises for nuclear development Safety and non-proliferation are two key premises for global expansion of nuclear power and countries seeking nuclear use must adhere to these principles, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) Nobuo Tanaka stressed here Monday. UAE believes in responsible use of nuclear power The United Arab Emirates' interest in developing nuclear energy is motivated by the need to develop additional sources of electricity. This is to meet future demand projections and to ensure the continued rapid development of the country's economy, UAE Foreign Minister H.H. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan affirmed here today. Israel 'to unveil plans to build nuclear power plant' Israel is expected to unveil plans this week to build a nuclear power plant, reports say. They say an announcement will be made by Israeli Infrastructure Minister Uzi Landau at an energy forum in Paris. Israel is facing a crisis over electricity supplies, but environmental objections have blocked efforts to build a new coal-fired plant. Don't buy Obama's greenwashing of nuclear power Last month, inspectors found dangerous chemicals in the groundwater near the Vermont Yankee nuclear reactor. The situation demonstrates that from the mining of uranium ore to the storage of radioactive waste, nuclear reactors remain as dirty, risky, and as costly as they ever were. If President Obama's recent enthusiasm for nuclear reactors has led you to believe otherwise, you've bought in to the administration's greenwashing of nuclear. Solar Industry Learns Lessons in Spanish Sun Farmers sold land for solar plants. Boutiques opened. And people from all over the world, seeing business opportunities, moved to the city, which had suffered from 20 percent unemployment and a population exodus. But as low-quality, poorly designed solar plants sprang up on Spain's plateaus, Spanish officials came to realize that they would have to subsidize many of them indefinitely, and that the industry they had created might never produce efficient green energy on its own. Lending Scheme to Bring Solar to Cambodia's Poor With access to solar-powered energy products for Cambodia's rural poor extremely limited, the solar energy company Kamworks and the Cambodia Mutual Savings and Credit Network are partnering to provide low-interest loans to customers hoping to outfit their homes with solar panels, while Kamworks will provide and install the equipment. Ethanol Making Comeback as Valero Sees Profit Where Gates Lost (Bloomberg) -- Ethanol, the commodity that cost Bill Gates more than $44 million the last time prices collapsed, is poised to rally as much as 20 percent as the fastest drop since 2008 spurs demand. Falling corn prices and record ethanol supplies have driven the price down 17 percent in three months to $1.634 a gallon, its worst run since 2008's fourth quarter. It will average $1.96 a gallon at the peak of the U.S. summer driving season as refiners from Valero Energy Corp. to Sunoco Inc. mix more into gasoline made from increasingly pricey oil, according to the median of 10 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. European Activists Sue Over Biofuels Studies Environmental lawyers and activists on Monday sued the European Commission for failing to release studies investigating the impact of biofuels on the environment. Whetting Singapore's thirst for rice "To produce one bowl of rice it takes about 500 liters of water," said Dr. Bouman. "For a city like Singapore, the question is whether the 688 billion liters of water needed to produce the country's rice will remain available." Worldwide, water for agriculture is becoming increasingly scarce as groundwater reserves drop, water quality declines because of pollution, irrigation systems malfunction, and competition from urban and industrial users increases. Climate change will also reduce water availability in large parts of the world. And, by 2025, 15-20 million hectares of irrigated rice will suffer some degree of water scarcity. Cool it on efforts against new rules, EPA chief asks WASHINGTON -- The head of the Environmental Protection Agency on Monday pushed back against lawmakers' attempts to halt the EPA's regulation of greenhouse gases from power plants, refiners and other industrial facilities. EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson said the agency's proposed new rules, which would take effect next year, could help ignite new demand for clean energy technology. Instead of trying to block new rules, lawmakers should spend their energy focusing on "new legislation to do something" about climate change, Jackson told reporters after a speech at the National Press Club. Asking "what would nature do?" leads to a way to break down a greenhouse gas ANN ARBOR, Mich. -- A recent discovery in understanding how to chemically break down the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide into a useful form opens the doors for scientists to wonder what organism is out there -- or could be created -- to accomplish the task. University of Michigan biological chemist Steve Ragsdale, along with research assistant Elizabeth Pierce and scientists led by Fraser Armstrong from the University of Oxford in the U.K., have figured out a way to efficiently turn carbon dioxide into carbon monoxide using visible light, like sunlight. California to amend 'cool cars' rule The state, which gave initial approval of the new rules in June, aims to sharply reduce solar energy in vehicles to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The California Air Resources Board is working to finalize the regulations in the coming weeks. The final rules must be in place by May 7. But the California Police Chiefs Association, California State Sheriffs Association, Crime Victims United of California and other groups warn that the new standards, requiring window glazing to keep car interiors cool, could degrade signals from cell phones, and from ankle monitoring bracelets worn by felons. Fidel Castro warns of dangers threatening humanity Former Cuban leader Fidel Castro warned of many dangers currently threatening the planet and the humanity such as mass destructive weapons and climate change. "For the first time, the human species, in a globalized world full of contradictions, have created the ability to destroy themselves," Castro said in an article released on Monday. How does America end up with such terrible national security strategies? Last month I wrote a blog post on the appallingly, monumentally bad Quadrennial Defence Review (QDR) of 2010 -- the document the US Defence Department is required to produce as a basis for developing the military force structure and strategic requirements for the next four years. This document, meant to analyse the threats to the United States, failed to mention radical Islam as a threat in its over 100 pages. It also passed over the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons with only a one-sentence mention. Yet the top officials of the Defence Department did not fail to notice the REAL threat facing the United States. The QDR devoted several pages to the serious threat inherent in… climate change. Monbiot: The trouble with trusting complex science There is no simple way to battle public hostility to climate research. As the psychologists show, facts barely sway us anyway. Wild relatives of crops seen aiding climate fight (Reuters) - Farm experts plan to track down wild relatives of crops such as rice or wheat with traits that make them able to resist global warming in a project costing perhaps $50 million, a leading expert said on Tuesday. "The wild relatives of cultivated crops ... are largely uncollected or conserved in gene banks," said Cary Fowler, head of the Rome-based Global Crop Diversity Trust which co-manages a "doomsday" seed vault on an Arctic island north of Norway. Move to train truckers to be greener The UK government has launched a new proposal to encourage more lorry drivers to take eco-driver training in a move to save up to 3m tonnes of carbon emissions. Over five years, a saving of around £300m in fuel costs could be achieved, according to transport minister Paul Clark. India backs Copenhagen climate deal: minister NEW DELHI (AFP) -- India has decided to formally back a climate change accord struck in Copenhagen last year that includes non-binding limits on global warming, Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said Tuesday. Climate forest deal in sight: Indonesia WASHINGTON (AFP) -- Wealthy and developing nations should be able to seal an agreement this year on deforestation, unlocking a key part of the next treaty on global warming, Indonesian negotiators said Monday. Should Scientists Fight Heat or Stick to Data? You want to know why Al Gore and his movie have proven to be such an abject failure? (And yes, failure is the right word -- polling shows no net increase in public concern about global warming in the years following the movie -- for two decades its been roughly a third of the public who are seriously worried about global warming.) It's for this very reason. A very dull and dispassionate voice was chosen to deliver a supposedly dire and passionate message. It was one of the worst cases of bad casting in history. Gore is ultimately "a scientist" when it comes to communication instincts. You can see it played out in his movie and two books as he's slowly come to the realization that you need something more than information to reach the masses. Duh. Post Carbon Contrary to popular belief, young people are not more politically engaged on the issue of climate change than older Americans, according to a new climate poll conducted by researchers at American, Yale and George Mason universities. The researchers found "adults under the age of 35 are significantly less likely than their elders to say that they had thought about global warming before today, with nearly a quarter (22 percent) of under-35s saying they had never thought about the issue previously. Only 38 percent of those between the ages of 18 and 34 say that they had previously thought about global warming either 'a lot' (10 percent) or 'some' (28 percent), compared to 51 percent of those 35-59 and 44 percent of those 60 and older. When the Water Rises It's easy to imagine an apocalyptically soggy future for New York--high waves soaking the hem of Lady Liberty's robes, flash floods roaring through subway tunnels, kayakers paddling down Wall Street--and just as easy to dismiss it all as another end-of-days Hollywood fantasy. Global warming may be powerful and real, but so is denial, and the urge to postpone thinking about that particular item on the world's to-do list is almost irresistible. Coastal cities, however, don't have that luxury. For centuries, New York has been steadily expanding into its harbor; when the steroidal storms of the not-too-distant future start pummeling our shores, the waters will push back. So Barry Bergdoll, the head of the Museum of Modern Art's architecture and design department, divvied New York Harbor among five teams of designers and challenged them to figure out how a low-lying metropolis might deal with rising sea levels and violent storm surges. Their answers will appear (starting March 24) in the MoMA exhibit "Rising Currents: Projects for New York's Waterfront," and they vary from spongy streets to reefs made of glass or oysters to apartment buildings dangling above the brine. Developed countries outsource emissions: study Developed countries are "outsourcing" more than a third of their carbon emissions associated with products and services to other countries, researchers say. A study of trade data found that some countries in Western Europe have more than half of their total carbon dioxide emissions occurring elsewhere, especially in developing countries such as China.

Offshore wind farm construction - more pictures

After showing you pictures of offshore wind turbine foundations in this story, I am pleased to be able to now post pictures of the above-the-water parts, before their installation at sea: Left: nacelles with the hubs being installedRight: blades (45m long) stacked Part of the Wind power series. More below: If you remember, there were ovality issues with one foundation last time round - well, that was solved and that foundation has now been corrected and installed at sea. The foundation site has just one big item remaining: the transition piece for the offshore high voltage transformer station This transition piece is heavier than the others, and required a re-fit of the jackup barge to be installed. That refit was being done when we visited: Left: two of the legs that go down in water to lift the platform above the water when it needs to work Right: the jackup is in the "raised" position in order for the re-fit work to be done in perfectly stable conditions, even in the port After installing the foundation for the transformer, the vessel will be refitted a second time to begin in a few weeks' time the installation of the towers and turbines, which are arriving at a nearby site: the nacelles (Vestas V90 - 3MW) the hubs the blades the first part of the tower The installation method chosen for this project is to install the turbines with the hub (but not the blades) on top of the towers (which are brought in two parts and are assembled on site) onshore, and transport the full unit to the site at sea in one piece, in a vertical position. Thus, other than the installation of that unit on top of the foundations, the only work offshore will be the installation of the blades, one by one, on the hub. On the port site, various bits of assembly are happening now: the towers are being erected: The fully erected towers stand at above 100 meters The hubs are being attached to the nacelles: The hubs are first positioned alongside the nacelles after having being raised into position (something I did not witness), the hubs are bolted to the nacelle a complete nacelle + hub set in front, with one to be installed behind it I hope to be able to post more installments in the future - but joining the installation work at sea is usually more difficult as the safety requirements are absolutely stringent and the boats can be mobilised for more than a few days... to be continued.

Drumbeat: March 8, 2010

How food and water are driving a 21st-century African land grab We turned off the main road to Awassa, talked our way past security guards and drove a mile across empty land before we found what will soon be Ethiopia's largest greenhouse. Nestling below an escarpment of the Rift Valley, the development is far from finished, but the plastic and steel structure already stretches over 20 hectares -- the size of 20 football pitches. The farm manager shows us millions of tomatoes, peppers and other vegetables being grown in 500m rows in computer controlled conditions. Spanish engineers are building the steel structure, Dutch technology minimises water use from two bore-holes and 1,000 women pick and pack 50 tonnes of food a day. Within 24 hours, it has been driven 200 miles to Addis Ababa and flown 1,000 miles to the shops and restaurants of Dubai, Jeddah and elsewhere in the Middle East. Ethiopia is one of the hungriest countries in the world with more than 13 million people needing food aid, but paradoxically the government is offering at least 3m hectares of its most fertile land to rich countries and some of the world's most wealthy individuals to export food for their own populations. POLL - OPEC to keep oil production targets steady LONDON (Reuters) - OPEC will keep oil production targets on hold this month but could raise output later year as the world recovers from recession, pushing up demand for fuel, a Reuters poll showed on Monday. Fourteen analysts were unanimous in saying the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would roll over its existing commitment to pump no more than 24.84 million barrels per day (bpd), equivalent to about 30 percent of global demand. ADNOC eyes 50% boost to drilling The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) will increase oil and gas drilling by 50% this year to sustain and enhance output, a senior company official said today. Diesel shortage paralyzes Egypt's highways Diesel fuel shortages continued throughout Egypt on Sunday, causing cars and buses to form 500- meter-long queues at some gas stations, as supply quantities were cut by half in many areas of Cairo and the provinces. Several fights between drivers over limited supplies of diesel fuel were reported, with police having to intervene in some cases. Lyondell files restructuring, rejects Reliance MUMBAI/NEW YORK (Reuters) - LyondellBasell filed a restructuring plan on Monday, rejecting a takeover bid from India's Reliance Industries that valued the bankrupt petrochemicals firm at $14.5 billion. Gulf braces for huge petrochemicals expansion The Gulf is undergoing massive capacity expansion in petrochemicals and will soon account for a lion's share of world's ethylene production, investment bank Alpen Capital has said in its new report. Arroyo warned vs bypassing Congress in dealing with Mindanao power crisis Opposition senators on Monday warned President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo against bypassing Congress in addressing the energy crisis in Mindanao. Senator Francis Escudero said failure to seek the approval of the both the Senate and House of Representatives would make the contracts entered into by the government voidable. The first wind farm in Venezuela will be installed in June and July this year The towers of the 24 wind turbines of the first wind farm in Venezuela will be installed in June and July this year, said Stella Lugo, Governor of Falcon state, where the wind farm is built. The wind farm Paraguana will have 100 megawatts in its final phase. The power plant is part of Venezuela policy to diversify its energy sources for electricity production, which now depends on more than 70% of hydropower. Zimbabwe: Full-scale ethanol production on the cards Government has set up a team of experts to finalise modalities on full-scale commercial blending of petrol and ethanol produced from sugarcane at Triangle in Chiredzi to ease petrol importation pressures on the fiscus. The ethanol plant at Triangle resumed production in 2008 following refurbishment and last year produced over a million litres of fuel grade ethanol. It Came From the Sea Since mapping the human genome 10 years ago, J. Craig Venter has found plenty of work. The biologist now is burrowing into DNA in as many forms as he can discover, in organisms from the sea and deep underground. His goal: to use the building blocks found in naturally occurring DNA to make synthetic cells. He and his partners at Exxon Mobil Corp. and BP PLC believe genetically engineered life forms hold great promise for energy and other industries. China lawmakers call for more crude, fuel reserves BEIJING (Reuters) - China should step up efforts to build up state reserves of crude oil and refined fuel to enhance the country's energy security, state media cited lawmakers as saying. National crude demand would exceed 550 million tonnes by 2020, compared with about 400 million tonnes in 2009, National People's Congress member Chen Geng told the China Energy News in an interview published on Monday. Chen, also a former general manager of state-owned China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), the country's top oil producer, said it was unlikely China would increase domestic oil production above 200 million tonnes in the next 10 years. "That means we have to import about 350 million tonnes of oil by then," he told the newspaper. Oil Advances to Two-Month High Above $82 on Economic Optimism (Bloomberg) -- Oil rose to a two-month high above $82 a barrel in New York amid growing confidence that the economic recovery is proceeding and set to bolster fuel demand. Crude advanced for a second day after French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the group of nations using the euro is ready to rescue Greece should the government struggle to fund its deficit. Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their bets on oil prices rising for a third week, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission. India's ONGC May Borrow $10 Billion to Buy Assets (Bloomberg) -- Oil & Natural Gas Corp., India's biggest energy explorer, may borrow $10 billion over the next decade as it competes with rivals from China and South Korea to buy oil assets overseas to meet domestic fuel demand. Essar Group Said to Plan $3 Billion Debt, Equity Sale (Bloomberg) -- Essar Group, owned by Indian billionaires Shashi and Ravi Ruia, plans to raise $3 billion overseas to fund acquisitions and expand its oil, power and steel businesses, two people familiar with the matter said. CNPC sees China oil output up 1-2% in 2010 China's crude oil output will rise by 1-2 percent this year, Yu Baocai, vice president of China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC), said on Sunday. The forecast is slightly below a previous estimate of 2 percent given in a CNPC research report but above the 0.5 percent growth target issued by China's planning ministry, the National Development and Reform Commission, in its 2010 economic plan. Saudi Arabia to promote private sector: Saudi king RIYADH - Top OPEC exporter Saudi Arabia has been largely unaffected by a global financial crisis and will continue to encourage private sector growth and pursue a moderate oil policy, King Abdullah said on Sunday. Total to Invest in EDF LNG Terminal Near Site of Shut Refinery (Bloomberg) -- Total SA, under fire from unions for the planned closure of its Dunkirk refinery in northern France, will invest in a 1 billion euro ($1.4 billion) liquefied natural gas terminal nearby that's being spearheaded by Electricite de France SA. Basra has a 'good feeling' about vote Turnout is 60% in the southern Iraqi city. Many voters express optimism about the nation's fifth post-Hussein elections. But some fear rivalries could spill into violence. Shell, PetroChina Offer $3 Billion for Australia's Arrow Energy (Bloomberg) -- Royal Dutch Shell Plc and PetroChina Co. made an offer worth more than A$3.3 billion ($3 billion) to acquire Arrow Energy Ltd., the holder of Australia's biggest coal-seam gas acreage, triggering a record gain in the shares. Queensland Coal Producers to Bid for QR Coal Network (Bloomberg) -- Queensland coal producers will bid for the state government's rail network and counter a planned A$3 billion ($2.7 billion) initial share sale of the assets, the local resources council says. Goldman Sachs partner Jeffrey Currie goes against the flow The Goldman Sachs oil research team, which reports to Currie, who is global head of commodities research, consistently tops forecasting league tables. But in early 2008 it made an uncharacteristically poor call. Oil analyst Arjun Murti forecast oil could spike to $200 a barrel in two years if spurred by a 1970s-style oil crisis event. Murti's claim carried weight as he correctly predicted oil's rise to over $100 a year earlier. Sasol's First-Half Profit Falls 52% as Oil Declines (Bloomberg) -- Sasol Ltd., the largest producer of motor fuel made from coal, said first-half profit fell 52 percent as the rand strengthened against the dollar and as the price of competing crude oil declined. Kairiki Energy Seeks Partners for 600 Million-Barrel Oil Field (Bloomberg) -- Kairiki Energy Ltd., an Australian oil explorer whose shares have tripled in the past year, is seeking partners to develop a crude field in the Philippines with potential reserves of 600 million barrels. China positive toward resolving gas field dispute BEIJING -- China has a positive attitude toward addressing a dispute with Japan over gas field development in the East China Sea, Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi said Sunday. ''The attitude of China is positive, not negative,'' Yang said at a press conference on the sidelines of the annual session of the National People's Congress, China's parliament. What's wrong with exploiting nature? The filmmakers interview local indigenous people whose lives have been disrupted by the works. Where once this was an isolated, tranquil landscape, it is now scarred by strip mining and the air in some areas reeks of 'stink bomb' fumes from the extraction process. But this is just the latest instance of the industrialisation of wilderness. What gives these indigenous inhabitants the right to the unfettered use of this land? While it is right that oil companies should leave the land in a state where it can be used for other purposes afterwards, there is nothing wrong with making use of natural resources. Energy Group Proposes North Sea Electricity Super-Grid, FT Says (Bloomberg) -- A group of 10 companies including Areva SA and Siemens AG will propose a plan today for a North Sea electricity "super-grid" connecting the U.K., Germany and Norway, the Financial Times reported, citing the group. ANALYSIS - Smart grid spending powers ahead in Asia SEOUL/HONG KONG (Reuters) - Japan, South Korea and China are investing about $9 billion this year in infrastructure and information technology to make electricity networks more efficient, creating lucrative opportunities for niche technology and equipment providers. The "smart grid" system, through computerised monitoring of electricity flowing through a power grid, allows utilities to automatically manage electricity usage in a way that is more reliable and flexible. Asia's spending on smart grids is expected to outpace the United States, with China alone seen investing $7.3 billion in the sector this year, according to Zpryme, a market research firm based in Austin, Texas. Will smart meters help reduce energy bills? Smart meters that monitor exact energy usage multiple times a day, resulting in accurate bills, have to be in all households by 2020, the government said last year. It is hoped they will also cut carbon levels by encouraging householders to pay more attention to energy usage and make more effort to control it. So should you switch to a smart meter now, and will it really save you money? EBay Highlights Conservation as a Benefit of Buying Used On the site, green.ebay.com, and in the ads, eBay makes the case that buying something used is as environmentally correct as conservation and recycling. "Most people think you have to make a product in a certain way with a certain set of ingredients for it to be green," said Amy Skoczlas Cole, director of eBay's green team. "What we're saying is you don't have to make this new product at all." Australia: Why didn't I get my personal financial 'stuff' sorted earlier? The age pension makes up a third of the annual Federal Budget and is set to increase at double the inflation rate to reach $45 billion in four years. Future governments will look to scale down this commitment as the number of future taxpayers declines. It is clearly obvious that managing this expectation gap of future retirees is an understatement. With rising inflation and living costs and fundamental changes such as a reaching "peak oil" and the question of who knows whether the age pension will be around in 10 to 20 years from now, only add to challenges in managing the expectation of these future retirees. A social conscience Steve Earnshaw is talking the talk and walking the walk as the spokesman for Transition Timaru. Feature writer Claire Allison met the environmentally aware orthopaedic surgeon. The painful limits of localism Every field of endeavour produces its classic conundrums, the tough nuts it never quite cracks. For centuries, engineering sought the secret of perpetual motion. Applied physics keeps looking for an efficient means of storing electrical power. In democratic politics our age is not the first to struggle to devolve decision-making without throwing sand into the wheels of big national plans: to reconcile bottom-up with top-down. Solon Shares Jump After Report Says State Aid May Be Approved (Bloomberg) -- Shares of Solon SE, the German maker of solar panels, jumped as much as 21 percent following a report that the unprofitable company may get state aid guarantees. Small biofuel farm bears fruit If the vision of father and son farmers Christian and James Twigg-Smith becomes reality, acres of now-fallow sugar cane land will be growing crops again. But rather than producing food, the land would be used to grow fuel oil. About two years ago they planted jatropha, an oil-rich nut native to South America, on 250 acres in Keaau on Hawaii island. They have leased another 750 acres that could be put into production if the crop is successful. Deal to Save Everglades May Help Sugar Firm When Gov. Charlie Crist announced Florida's $1.75 billion plan to save the Everglades by buying out a major landowner, United States Sugar, he declared that the deal would be remembered as a public acquisition "as monumental as the creation of the nation's first national park, Yellowstone." Standing amid the marshes at the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge in June 2008, Mr. Crist said, "I can envision no better gift to the Everglades, the people of Florida and the people of America -- as well as our planet -- than to place in public ownership this missing link that represents the key to true restoration." Nearly two years later, the governor's ambitious plan to reclaim the river of grass, as the famed wetlands are known, is instead on track to rescue the fortunes of United States Sugar. Asia seen as growth driver for voluntary CO2 market SINGAPORE (Reuters) -- Fear of Western-imposed carbon tariffs on goods and services from Asia is likely to drive growth in offsetting emissions by large firms in the region, a voluntary carbon market executive said. The market, worth $705 million in 2008 and likely much less in 2009, relies on businesses to voluntarily manage their carbon emissions, for example from the energy they use to produce and transport goods around the globe. The Maldives Buys a New Island -- That Floats Sea level rise creates new business opportunity and "green jobs" that we'll see more of, borne from the effects of climate change, as sea levels rise. The first floating island has just been commissioned this week by the sinking island nation of the Maldives, from Dutch Docklands, whose past work includes part of the artificial islands comprising The World off the coast of Dubai.

Test results from nuclear stimulation of oil and gas reservoirs

Hmmm! Well, the tone of some the comments on my last post--dealing with nuclear development of oil shale, both recently and when I initially posted it on The Oil Drum helps illustrate one of the points that I want to make in this, a continuation in the posts on oil shale. The tone was quite negative, in general, with a number of folk being disturbed at my even bringing it up. It points to the fact that, as a political reality (bearing in mind that I try to stick to technical matters in this series) the use of nuclear adjustment to the local geology is not likely going to be popular. As tstreet noted after the original post, there is an article in the Colorado Constitution (article XXVI) that he helped put in there. Section 1. Nuclear detonations prohibited exceptions. No nuclear explosive device may be detonated or placed in the ground for the purpose of detonation in this state except in accordance with this article. (Adopted by the People, November 5, 1974. Effective upon proclamation of the Governor, December 20, 1974.) Section 2. Election required. Before the emplacement of any nuclear explosive device in the ground in this state, the detonation of that device shall first have been approved by the voters through enactment of an initiated or referred measure authorizing that detonation, such measure having been ordered, proposed, submitted to the voters, and approved as provided in section 1 of article V of this constitution. (Adopted by the People, November 5, 1974 Effective upon proclamation of the Governor, December 20, 1974.) While I did not know about that as I initially planned this series, I had intended just to point out that the unhappiness of just one Senator with a nuclear program (and I was thinking of Senator Reid and Yucca Mountain) can delay and ultimately kill its implementation. In this case it is likely that there would be at least eight senators opposing, and I think the point is made. However, since I do think it is useful for folk to know these things, I thought I would continue with the rest of the story from a technical point of view. Particularly since the use of nuclear energy for excavation has recently been revisited by WIRED magazine. Following the debates about the potential benefits that might occur from the use of nuclear explosives, it was decided to see if it would work in three test detonations, that were given the names Gasbuggy, Rulison and Rio Blanco. The Gasbuggy shot, in 1967, used a 29 KT device at a depth of a 4,240 ft deep shaft, and created a cavity that was 80 ft wide and 335 ft tall, when one included the chimney. It also fractured the light shale around the opening. Anticipated dimensions were 165 ft with a 350 ft chimney. The Rulison shot, in 1969, used a 43 KT device at a depth of 8,426 ft. It produced a cavity that was 152 ft wide, with a fracture zone that extends some 200 ft into the surrounding sandstone. (Predicted size was 160 ft with a 300 ft chimney). It is interesting to note that contractors have sought to drill near that shot, in order to extract gas from the shale. They were initially restricted to drilling no closer than half a mile. That was back in 2004, but interest in drilling at the site has continued. In the latest development, Noble Energy Production is planning on drilling some 78 wells near the site, with DOE apparently having plans to drill closer than the half-mile imposition, though the wells planned in this case are all more than 1.5 miles from the site. The County Commissioners are not amused. And, lest there be some concern for gas released at the time, let me quote from the article. All the gas freed by the nuclear blast was produced and burned off at the surface, Bennetts said. The radioactivity at the site wasn't high to begin with, and since has decreased to below background levels, he said. The blast formed a sealed cavity underground, according to state and federal authorities. "Even if you drilled a well into that cavity again, there's very little radioactivity remaining to be produced," Bennetts said. There was some measure of the gas produced Following the blast, in 1970 and 1971, the companies burned off, or "flared," 430 million cubic feet of gas into the open sky. The commission said that the level of radioactivity in the air surrounding the site did not exceed normal background levels. Rio Blanco, shot in 1973, was made up of a series of 3 30-KT devices stacked up the shaft, at a depth of 7,000 ft, with the devices actually at 5,840; 6,230 and 6,670 ft. Each device created a cavity that was some 120 ft in diameter, and about 250 ft high. (Against predictions of a 140 ft diameter with a 300 ft chimney.) Fractures from the explosions extended about 200 ft into the rock around the shaft. The production of gas from the shots was reported to be less than had been anticipated and the levels of radiation higher, so that while the volume of gas that could have been collected "would have been commercially viable," that only held true had the gas been uncontaminated. It was not. Interestingly there have also been tests of this technology in the Former Soviet Union and when I wrote about gas fires in Turkmenistan there was a comment by Syndroma who posted pictures of devices, which I am reposting here. Also noting As to extinguishing of gas fountains: 1 in Turkmenistan, 2 in Uzbekistan, 1 in Ukraine (objective not achieved). Also in Ukraine, there was 0.3 kt explosion to alter the geology of coal mine, to make it safer for the miners. Objective achieved. Later, coal was extracted up to 70 meters from the chamber. No excess radioactivity detected. Of ~150 peaceful explosion only 4 turned out "nasty" (contamination of the surface). Soviet weapons that could be used in gas and oil well stimulation (from Wonderful Russia via Syndroma) Syndroma also posted pictures of the result of three shots to generate a trench which I am also moving here. This was the model of the crater: And this was the resulting crater that was achieved. Results of the excavation when 3 nuclear devices were used to excavate a trench in the Soviet Union (Syndroma) (You can see the site on Google Earth at 61 18 16.93, 56 35 55.77) There is more information on the Soviet Program here. However our purpose is to look at the development of reserves and their contribution to the marketplace within the foreseeable future--particularly within the next fifteen years, when we can assume that the shortages of supply will become evident, it can, I think, be realistically assumed that there can be no use of nuclear devices to enhance oil shale recovery out West. At the same time, the toughness of the rock and its strength and behavior under mechanical attack make machine mining of the shale a likely impracticality on a sufficient scale to produce perhaps much more than 100,000 barrels a day within that time frame. That judgment on my part is based also on the need to regenerate the capital for the program, reconstruct the facilities and get through all the necessary paperwork. There are alternate methods for mining the material, including those that are used in conventional metal mining of large-scale surface and underground deposits. However, the mining of something that can generate high levels of potentially explosive gases, if very large scale fracturing and blasting is undertaken, creates levels of risk that will make development of such plans a lengthy process if carried out underground. The mining of Gilsonite for example, was only realistically achieved when the hydrocarbon was mined using high pressure waterjets. But the strength of the oil shale makes the conventional use of that technique impractical - even if it were allowable, which is conjectural. With these prospects being diminished, the only likely potential for oil shale to have a significant impact in the next fifteen years is likely to be either through some smaller scale in-situ retorting or possibly through a surface mining approach. I will discuss these in the next two posts on the subject.

Energy Bulletin (peak)

The peak oil crisis: the looming fiscal storm

Despite the incessant media repetition that the economic situation is getting better, there is growing evidence that the economy is in fact growing worse. Where all this leaves oil prices is not yet clear. read more

Monbiot vs. Leggett duking it out over solar panels and feed-in tariffs - Mar 9

-Are we really going to let ourselves be duped into this solar panel rip-off?-Solar panels are not fashion accessories-There is no 'green treachery' in questioning this solar panel rip-offI accept George Monbiot's £100 solar PV bet read more

Biofuels - Mar 9

-Green fuels cause more harm than fossil fuels, according to report-Chemists create biofuel from plant waste-Seeking a More 'Poplar' Biofuel read more

The Scalability of Biochar

A popular idea at the moment to address climate change is biochar - essentially taking organic materials, charring them, and burying them in the soil...Now, the biofuel story has given me a bit of a horror of ideas that sound cool to environmentalists, are fine on a small scale, but are a disaster when scaled up by industrial society.  So I wanted to do a few quick back-of-the-envelope calculations of the limits of this approach. read more

Using behavioral science to make smarter energy policy

On Friday, journalist John Fleck made a great point, comparing coverage of two new pieces in Science. One is about the latest potential climate disaster: methane venting from the seafloor in the Arctic. The second is about a promising new climate solution: using behavioral science to influence energy use. Not surprisingly, the disaster got tons of coverage. The solution got none. This is entirely typical. As Fleck says, "The problem space gets more attention than the solution space." read more

Global Public Media

Reality Report: Interview with Noah Raford

Peak Moment: A Geodesic Greenhouse -- Year-Round Gardening at 6000 Feet

Crop to Cuisine: Local Food Resources

C-Realm Podcast - Flashing Lights on the Console

Peak Moment: Permaculture for Humanity

Google News

Petróleo: Faja del Orinoco (Venezuela) entra en el nuevo juego global - kaosenlared.net

kaosenlared.netPetróleo: Faja del Orinoco (Venezuela) entra en el nuevo juego globalkaosenlared.net... el pico de producción (peak oil) descrito por el geofísico estadounidense King Hubbert, y el conjunto de los yacimientos en lo sucesivo sólo declinarán. ...y más »

¿5 años para la próxima crisis del petróleo? - ECOticias.com

¿5 años para la próxima crisis del petróleo?ECOticias.comLa UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil & Energy Security, fundada por Branson y otros empresarios con intereses energéticos (entre ellos varios presidentes de ...

El petróleo que nos consume - Prensa Latina

El petróleo que nos consumePrensa LatinaEl concepto del "peak oil" es derivado de la conocida curva de Hubbert, en referencia al estadounidense Marion King Hubbert, quien en 1956 creó y usó por ...

Peak Oil Demand Is Coming, But Here's Why It's Not Good News - The Business Insider

Peak Oil Demand Is Coming, But Here's Why It's Not Good NewsThe Business InsiderThe case for peak oil was looking stronger with every new uptick in crude futures. The following month, prominent peak oil critic and cornucopian Daniel ...y más »

The Peak Oil Crisis: The Looming Fiscal Storm - Falls Church News Press

The Peak Oil Crisis: The Looming Fiscal StormFalls Church News Press... in the foreseeable future still do not look good. Tom Whipple is a retired government analyst and has been following the peak oil issue for several years.

Oilism

China stops Oil Price rally

A couple weeks in a row the price of a barrel crude oil rose but last Thursday China made an end to the oil price party. For now at least, due an economic recovery in the offing, analysts expect that the  demand for oil will further increase in the coming months rather than decrease.The Chinese central [...]

IEA oil figures questioned

Oil price: Prevent panic buyingThis suggested by a whistleblower of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in an interview in British newspaper The Guardian. The IEA calculates the threat of deficits to low, in order to avoid panic buying of specific levels of the price for a barrel of crude oil. U.S. According to a senior member of [...]

Scientists: Peakoil before 2020

The debate about, ultimately inevitable depletion of global oil reserves, has become pervasive in recent years. It is polarized, complicated and suffers from a multitude of different interpretations of the available data.The UK Energy Research Center, a joint institute of British universities have attempted to provide greater clarity.The questions of the scientists is: What is there [...]

Crude Oil: Focus on OPEC

OPEC has more reason than ever to cut the oil productions. Will the oil cartel be able the push back oil prices again? “A price of 75 dollars a barrel is fair for oil producers and consumers. This is said by Saudi Arabia last year, according to Bloomberg. With this in mind is a further reduction of [...]

Perfect Time to trade Longterm Oil Positions

Crude Oil exchange is described as a free market economy because investors are not really sure whether their invested money will get any revenue or not, because of it's volatile nature. We do not have to mention that the price of barrel of crude was just less than 7 months ago above 130 USD! Some [...]

PeakOil.com

Sarkozy: ‘Help poor countries go nuclear in energy crisis’

POOR countries should be helped to build their own nuclear power stations to help fight climate change, French President Nicolas Sarkozy said yesterday. His vision won over international energy officials from India to Brussels, and French executives eager to market their expertise abroad, at a Paris conference. But some experts said Mr Sarkozy’s push was opening the door to risks of deadly technology getting into the wrong hands, and warned consumers to pay attention to the staggering price tag of potential nuclear energy growth – up to £2.6 trillion worldwide by 2050.

Green energy revolution expected in Kingdom

JEDDAH: Saudi Arabia and the Gulf signalled their intention to kick-start a renewable energy revolution in the region on Monday. A panel of experts at the ongoing Gulf Environment Forum in Jeddah, chaired by Assistant Minister for Petroleum Affairs Prince Abdul Aziz bin Salman, said measures were in place to improve the energy mix and finally reduce Middle East dependence on oil.

Natural gas focus of oil conference, pointing to source of future

For years, the so-called Oil Day of the annual IHS CERA energy conference, which draws thousands of industry executives to Houston, has been the highlight of this weeklong event. It comes first - before Gas Day and Power Day. The biggest names are keynote speakers that day (This year, for example, Steven Chu, US Secretary of Energy, was among the keynote speakers). And attendence is at its highest.

Increased Solar Radiation Requires Additional CO2 Reduction of 50 Million Tonnes

The recently observed reduction in air pollution implies that more solar radiation reaches the Earth's surface. This could lead to a far more rapid increase in the Earth's temperature in the coming decades than has previously been expected based on calculations of CO2 emissions alone.

The Peak Oil Crisis: The Looming Fiscal Storm

Last week the stock markets soared when it was announced that the U.S. had lost only 36,000 jobs in February - less than Wall Street economists were predicting. In the wake of the announcement, numerous learned analysts appeared on the financial networks to assure us that as soon as the snow melts an economic rebound would start and U.S. employment numbers would start to grow. It is apparent that the learned analysts are spending too much time watching the Dow Jones and not our 50 state capitols where chaos is breaking loose. As state and local revenues continued to plunge in February, and with most legislatures still unwilling to make up for the losses with tax increases in an election year, hundreds of thousands of state and local government workers are facing the prospect of becoming unemployed.

Aleklett Energy Mix

Misslyckandet i Köpenhamn

(English will come) Den 15 november 2009 framförde jag på Brännpunkt åsikten att man skulle misslyckas vid klimatförhandlingarna i Köpenhamn och anledningen var att man inte diskuterade helheten i "den globala välfärdsekvationen". Man glömde bort mat och ekonomi. SVT har nu i programmet "Dokument utifrån" skildrat vad som pågick bakom kulisserna inför klimatförhandlingarna och man försöker hitta en orsak till haveriet. Vi får följa två av huvudpersonerna i spelet bakom kulisserna. Den som varit ansvarig för att ta fram ett förslag till avtalstext var Michael Zammit Cutajar, men spindeln i nätet var Laurence Tubinan från Frankrike, grundare av det franska institutet för hållbar utveckling och internationella relationer. I dokumentärfilmen “Klimatförhandlingen” får vi följa aktörerna bakom kulisserna. Resan börjar i Bonn juni 2009 där 192 länder samlas under FN:s ledning för att förhandla fram en avtalstext. Förutsättningarna är att industriländerna fram till 2050 skall ha minskat sina utsläpp med 80%, utvecklingsländerna skall med minst 40% och i de fattigaste länderna skall ha en tillväxt som skall vara koldioxidfri. De globala utsläppen måste minska utan att den ekonomiska tillväxten bromsas och de länder som drabbas måste få hjälp. Sedan skall man också lösa frågan: "Vem skall betala och hur mycket och på vilket sätt?" Nu sex månader innan Köpenhamnmötet kan spelet börja. Av världens länder är det bara EU som förbundit sig att minska sina utsläpp med 20% fram till 2020 och en överenskommelse enligt de ambitiösa målen som anger en minskning med 80 fram till 2050 är långt borta. Det framgår att alla delegater tror på IPCC, som säger att man fram till 2100 kan fortsätta att öka utsläppen i samma takt som man gör i dag. Peak Oil, Peak Gas och Peak Coal finns inte på agendan. Liksom att ifrågasätta en temperaturökning med 6 grader. En minskning av framtida koldioxidutsläpp kan bara åstadkommas genom politiskt bindande beslut. Japan tar till orda och meddelar att man är redo att minska sina utsläpp med 8% fram till 2020, men länder med stora utsläpp, USA, Kina och Indien, är tysta. I kulissen rör sig Laurence Tubinan och hon försöker få reda på om Kina och USA har en egen agenda. Den stora frågan är vem som skall bli vinnare och vem som kall bli förlorare. Om Kina och USA sluter ett eget avtal kan EU vara en av förlorarna och maktkampen mellan Kina och USA blir påtaglig. Man lämnar Bonn utan att ha kommit ett steg närmare en text som alla kan enas om. Under sommaren kommer flera utspel och det verkar som om de stora aktörerna är villiga att enas om att tvågradermålet år 2050 är viktigt att uppnå. Hur man skall nå dit är fortfarande en öppen fråga. Japan meddelar helt plötsligt att man är villiga att minska sina utsläpp med 25% fram till 2020. Kina säger att man skall minska sina utsläpp per bruttonationalfaktor, men med en kraftig ökning av BNP betyder det ändå ökade utsläpp. Bankock är sista anhalten inför Köpenhamn. Avtalstexten och de ekonomiska ramarna diskuteras. Det framkommer tydligt att världens fattiga länder måste vara med på uppgörelsen men avstånden är gigantiska. Regnskogens framtid är en avgörande faktor. Helt plötsligt framför EU åsikten att man vill ha ett helt nytt protokoll som skall ersätta Kyotoprotokollet, med de tongångarna vill USA in höra på, men framför nu en egen linje. Man vill ha frivilliga åtaganden och inga sanktioner, en frivillig grön klimatfond skall ge utvecklingsländerna det kapital som man behöver. EU vill ha en helt annan lösning, men det verkar som USA har tagit över initiativet. Förhandlingarna pågår in i det sista och det är uppenbart att man inte kommer att nå fram till någon gemensam text. Så är vi framme i Köpenhamn. IPCC säger att mötet i Köpenhamn är ett stort steg framåt. Man hoppas det skall representera världens samstämmiga vilja att ta sig an ett gemensamt problem. Man tror att mötet skall bli en vattendelare för mänskligheten. 15000 delegater samlas i Bella centrum och under två veckor skall man komma fram till en historisk lösning på klimatkrisen. Dessutom finns det 20000 observatörer och 3000 journalister på plats. FN kan konstatera att 119 statschefer har anmält att man skall komma och Köpenhamn blir en belägrad stad. För Michael Zammit Cutajar och Laurence Tubinan närmar sig sanningens ögonblick. Skall två års arbete leda till en framgång eller var allt förgäves? Helt plötsligt lägger Danmark fram en text som man börjar diskutera, men den förkastas snabbt av utvecklingsländerna. Dagen innan ministrarna skall anlända finns det ingen text att förhandla om men då fattar Michael Zammit Cutajar på nytt pennan och utformar ett nytt förslag. Hela natten pågår det förhandlingar om texten och kl 8:30 på morgonen delas den nya texten ut. Man stänger dörrarna till förhandlingarna och TV- kamerorna får stanna utanför. Efter två timmar meddelar Kina att man kan acceptera texten och det samma säger utvecklingsländerna, ministrarna kan komma. Utanför Bella centrum stiger temperaturen och 100000 demonstrerar och till slut beslutas att miljöorganisationernas delegater måste lämna Bella centrum. Nu kan texten presenteras för ministrarna men innan Michael Zammit Cutajar får en möjlighet till detta har den danske ordföranden tagit till orda och på nytt framföret en egen text som möter stort motstånd bland delegaterna. Man anser att det är odemokratiskt att inte föra fram den text som man arbetat med under två år. Man vill godkänna den text som Michael Zammit Cutajar utarbetat som förhandlingsunderlag. Då bordlägger ordföranden mötet. Många anser att vad som sker är att vika sig för USA och ett fiasko i Köpenhamn är nära. Efter påtryckningar får Danmark ge sig och den förhandlade texten kommer äntligen fram på förhandlingsbordet. Michael tackas för sitt arbete och man är äntligen framme vid finalen i förhandlingarna. Världens miljöministrar kommer in på podiet men det finns ingen överenskommelse då världens statsministrar anländer. På mindre än 24 timmar måste man nu enas. Brasiliens president Lula da Silva säger att han tror på Gud, han tror på ett mirakel och att han vill delta i detta mirakel. Till sist stiger president Obama upp i talarstolen: Om inget görs åt klimatförändringarna blir det ett oacceptabelt hot mot vår säkerhet, vårt ekonomiska system och vår planet. Frågan är nu om vi ska gå vidare eller splittras. — Vi är redo att gå vidare idag. Det är bättre för oss att agera än att diskutera. Det framgick tydligt att USA hade fattat ett beslut och att övriga världen nu kunde ställa in sig i ledet. Det unika händer att 28 av världens ledare sätter sig ner och förhandlar med ett blankt papper framför sig. Två års förhandling om en text är bortkastat. Man diskuterar nu några få punkter. Ju längre tiden lider utvattnas texten alla utsläppsnål stryks liksom övriga krav. Kvar blir att varje land skall redovisa sina egna åtgärder för att minska utsläppen. EU hade hoppats på ett helt annat avtal och kan nu känna sig som förlorare, USA har tagit över. Texten har krympt till tre sidor. • Temperaturen får inte stiga mer än två grader men inga åtgärder preciseras. • Alla miljömål i siffror försvinner, kvar finns bara frivilliga åtaganden. • Utvecklingsländerna går med på kontroll av sina åtgärder, men då utan några som helst sanktioner. • En finansiering med 30 miljarder dollar under tre år finns med i beslutet. • Preliminärt skall 100 miljarder per år anslås från 2020, men fördelningen återstår att bestämma. • Regnskogarna skall diskuteras nästa år. Efter 12 timmars debatt tar man Köpenhamnsöverenskommelsen till protokollet dock utan att godkänna den. Man kan konstatera att Michael Zammit Cutajar arbetat under två år för att ta fram en text men att han misslyckades. Nu återstår det bara ett hopp för framtidens klimat och det hoppet är är "Peak Oil", "Peak Gas" och "Peak Coal". Den cirkus som pågått i FN:s regi de senaste två åren har förmodligen varit en onödig föreställning. Sommaren 2007 fick jag i uppdrag av Transport Forum, en underorganisation till OECD, att skriva en rapport om framtidens koldioxidutsläpp utifrån resursbegränsningar. Jag kan bara beklaga att man inte tog min rapport till OECD på större allvar.

Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios

Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios, Mikael Höök, Anders Sivertsson, and Kjell Aleklett The World of Science, TV Sweden's science program, today presented as its first news item that our research article, "Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios" has now been published in the journal Natural Resources Research. Let's read the abstract before we discuss this further: Abstract:
Anthropogenic global warming caused by CO2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Previous scenarios were withdrawn after exaggerating one or several trends. This study investigates underlying assumptions on resource availability and future production expectations to determine whether exaggerations can be found in the present set of emission scenarios as well. It is found that the SRES unnecessarily takes an overoptimistic stance and that future production expectations are leaning towards spectacular increases from present output levels. In summary, we can only encourage the IPCC to involve more resource experts and natural science in future emission scenarios. The current set, SRES, is biased toward exaggerated resource availability and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels. The entire article an be found at our website (http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/IPCC_article.pdf). With a starting point of the future production scenarios that we presented in a report to the OECD in 2007, The World of Science made a calculation of temperature change and it was approximately +3 Celsius, i.e. somewhere over the +2 Celcius that is the climate target. We concluded our article with this comment: We argue that numerous SRES scenarios need to be revised, generally downward, regarding production expectations from fossil fuels. Several scenarios agree poorly with reality over the recent years and some can even be ruled out. SRES is underpinned by a paradigm of perpetual growth and technological optimism as well as old and outdated estimates regarding the availability of fossil energy. Just as its withdrawn preceding report from 1992 (Gray, 1998), the future energy production projections for fossil in SRES (2000) are exaggerated and so are the resulting emissions. What kind of repercussions this has on the future climate is an open question which needs to be assessed from several different angles. (Swedish) Vetenskapens Värld, Sveriges Televisions vetenskapsmagasin, presenterade idag som första nyhet att vår forskningsartikel "Validity of the fossil fuel production outlooks in the IPCC Emission Scenarios" nu publicerats i tidskriften Natural Resources Research. Låt oss läsa igenom abstract innan vi diskuterar vidare: Abstract Anthropogenic global warming caused by CO2 emissions is strongly and fundamentally linked to future energy production. The Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) from 2000 contains 40 scenarios for future fossil fuel production and is used by the IPCC to assess future climate change. Previous scenarios were withdrawn after exaggerating one or several trends. This study investigates underlying assumptions on resource availability and future production expectations to determine whether exaggerations can be found in the present set of emission scenarios as well. It is found that the SRES unnecessarily takes an overoptimistic stance and that future production expectations are leaning towards spectacular increases from present output levels. In summary, we can only encourage the IPCC to involve more resource experts and natural science in future emission scenarios. The current set, SRES, is biased toward exaggerated resource availability and unrealistic expectations on future production outputs from fossil fuels. Hela artikeln finns på vår hemsida (http://www.tsl.uu.se/uhdsg/Publications/IPCC_article.pdf). Med utgångspunkt från de framtida produktionsscenarier som vi presenterade i en rapport till OECD 2007 har Vetenskapens Värld låtit göra en temperaturförändringsberäkning och det blev ungefär+3 oC, det vill säga något över de +2 oC som är klimatmålet. Vi avslutar artikeln med denna kommentar: We argue that numerous SRES scenarios need to be revised, generally downward, regarding production expectations from fossil fuels. Several scenarios agree poorly with reality over the recent years and some can even be ruled out. SRES is underpinned by a paradigm of perpetual growth and technological optimism as well as old and outdated estimated regarding the availability of fossil energy. Just as its withdrawn preceding report from 1992 (Gray, 1998), the future energy production projections for fossil in SRES (2000) are exaggerated and so are the resulting emissions. What kind of repercussions this has on the future climate is an open question which needs to be assessed from several different angles.

A new reality

Around New Year I decided to gather together all my blogs from 2008 and 2009 into a book. When I had collected everything in chronological order it amounted to 265 A4 pages. To progress the work I decided to leave my daily routine and travel to a place where I could concentrate on the book. I chose Sharm El Sheikh in Egypt. At the moment we are experiencing a hard winter in Sweden so exchanging subzero temperatures for those above zero is quite enjoyable. After the 7-day war in 1967 Israel occupied the Sinai Peninsula and Sharm El Sheik for 12 years. At that time the place was a camping area for Bedouins that used to fish here for some months. Today there are 80,000 tourists here and approximately 40,000 others that are needed to service industry. Normally these people live in Cairo and other cities and work here for some months before travelling home to their families. The reality is that 60% of the tourists are from Russia (48,000) and if we estimate that they stay, on average, for two weeks it means that 1,200,000 Russians visit Sharm El Sheikh every year. For those of us that remember the Soviet era when Russians were not permitted to leave the USSR as tourists this can seem a little unreal, but the fact remains that Russia earns an enormous income from oil and natural gas and this income has now spread into various classes of society. To be a tourist is a new freedom. We must now reconsider Russia and realize that this nation is on its way to becoming an economic power and that many Russians now have the desire and the means to travel out into the world. The fact that Russia will probably be self-sufficient in oil and natural gas for the next 50 years means, furthermore, that they will have access to fuel for their aircraft to transport Russians to Sharm El Sheikh for the near future. We have a new reality before us. There are approximately 100 pages left to review for the book and it will be interesting to see the final result. I hope to have everything finished by April. (Swedish) Runt årsskiftet bestämde jag mig för att sammanställa mina bloggar från 2008 och 2009 till en bok. Då jag sammanställde allt i kronologisk ordning blev det 265 A4-sidor. För att komma vidare med arbetet beslutade jag att lämna den dagliga rutinen och åka till en plats där jag kunde koncentrera mig på boken. Valet blev Sharm El Sheikh i Egypten. Just nu har vi en sträng vinter i Sverige och att byta ut minusgrader mot plusgrader kändes ganska bra. Väl framme fick vi lite fakta om platsen. Efter 7-dagarskriget 1967 ockuperade Israel Sinaihalvön och Sharm El Sheikh under 12 år. Då var platsen lägerplats för beduiner som brukade fiska här under några månader. Idag finns här 80.000 turister och cirka 40.000 som behövs för att serva industrinäringen. Normalt bor man i Kairo och andra städer och ar betar här under någon månad innan man kan åka hem till familjen. Verkligheten är att 60% av turisterna kommer från Ryssland (48.0000) och om vi räknar med att man i genomsnitt stannar två veckor betyder det att 1.200.000 ryssar varje år besöker Sharm El Sheikh. För oss som minns Sovjettiden då man inte fritt fick lämna landet som turist verkar detta overkligt, men faktum kvarstår att Ryssland har enorma inkomster från olja och naturgas och dessa inkomster sprider sig nu till olika samhällsklasser och att vara turist är en ny frihet. Vad det gäller Rysland måste vi nu tänka om och inse att Ryssland också är på väg att bli en ekonomisk stormakt och att många i Ryssland nu kan och vill åka ut i världen. Det faktum att man de närmaste 50 åren kommer att vara självförsörjande på olja och naturgas betyder dessuton att man kommer att ha tillgång till bränsle för sina flygplan som kan frakta ryssar till Sharm El Sheikh de närmaste åren. Vi har framför oss en ny verklighet. Vad det gäller boken är den nu ca 100 sidor kvad att gå igenom och det skall bli intressant att se slutresultatet. Hoppas att allt är klart i April.

Sweden's first Ph.D. in "Technical physics specialising in global energy resources" / Sveriges förste doktor i "Teknisk fysik med inriktning mot globala energiresurser"

Bengt Söderbergh is now a successful Ph.D. in "Technical physics specialising in global energy resources". It was last autumn that the technical sciences faculty committee at Uppsala University determined the study plan for this new research education discipline. That means that Bengt is the first Ph.D. in this area. The fact that he was the first Ph.D. candidate that would be examined in this new discipline meant that Bengt was subjected to a tough examination that he passed in style. The opponent, Roger Bentley from Reading University, had prepared questions that Bengt could definitely answer but also questions from outside of the core topic of his thesis. The final comment from Roger Bentley was that he was impressed by the thesis when he began his questions and even more impressed after all the exhaustive answers he had received from Bengt. When the chair of the degree committee began his questioning by saying that "the candidate is very brave man", tension rose in the hall. To engage in the debate on Europe's future may seem innocent enough for the uninformed. However, by the submission of this thesis such engagement is no longer a matter of empty words. Now the words have authoritative backing. To take this step is courageous. Prognosis of future production from the Yamal peninsula The decisive factor for Europe's future is future natural gas production from the Yamal peninsula. According to the plans this production will begin at the end of 2011. What Bengt shows in his thesis is that a delay of 5 years, (which is possible), would make it difficult for the EU to increase its natural gas use. At the moment the EU is planning an increase of 70-90%. Everyone is now waiting with some excitement for the reactions from the EU Commission. You can congratulate Bengt through making a comment. Bengt Söderbergh är nu en lycklig doktor i "Teknisk fysik med inriktning mot globala energiresurser". Det var först i höstas som den teknisk-naturvetenskapliga fakultetsnämnden vid Uppsala universitet fastställde studieplanen för detta nya forskarutbildningsämne och det betyder att Bengt är den förste doktorn i detta ämne. Det faktum att det var den förste dokton som skulle examineras i detta nya ämne gjorde att det blev en tuff disputation som Bengt klarade med galans. Opponent Roger Bentley från Reading University hade förberett frågor som Bengt definitivt borde klara men också frågor som låg utanför avhandlingens kärna. Slutkommentaren från Roger Bentley var att han var imponerad av avhandlingen då han började utfrågningarna och han var ännu mer imponerad efter alla uttömmande svar från Bengt. Då betygskommittén ordförande började sin frågestund med att säga att "respondenten är en mycket modig man" steg spänningen i salen. Att gå in i debatten om Europas framtid kan för den oinitierade verka oskyldigt, men genom sin avhandling är det inte längre tomma ord utan nu finns det tyngd bakom orden. Att ta detta steget är modigt. Prognos av framtida produktion från Yamalhalvön En avgörande faktor för Europas framtid ar den framtida naturgasproduktionen från Yamalhalvön. Enligt planerna skall produktionen börja i slutet av 2011 och vad Bengt visar i sin avhandling är att en försening med 5 år, vilket kan bli verkligt, medför att det blir svårt för EU att öka sin naturgasanvändning. Just nu planerar man en ökning med 70-90 procent. Alla väntar nu med spänning på reaktionerna från EU-kommissionen. Ni kan gratulera Bengt med en kommentar.

Thesis defense on Norway's and Russia's future exports of natural gas to Europe

Today is an important day for my Ph.D. student Bengt Söderbergh, but it is also an important day for our research group. Four years of research will be reviewed and evaluated. The opponent is Dr Roger Bentley from Reading University in the U.K.. Dr Bentley is one of the world's leading experts in his area. Today Uppsala University sent out the following press release: Russian gas will not meet EU demand Currently there is a lively debate in the EU about the political consequences of dependence on Russian gas. One question that should be emphasised is whether in future there will be sufficient gas at all for export to the EU. So says physicist Bengt Söderbergh who, in his Ph.D. thesis, has evaluated future levels of Norwegian and Russian gas exports. The thesis will be defended on 19 February at Uppsala University. According to the prognoses from the International Energy Agency (IEA) natural gas production within the EU will decline from the level in 2006 of 216 billion cubic meters per year (Gm3/y) to 90 Gm3/y by 2030. During the same period demand is expected to increase strongly. Because of this, import requirements for gas will increase by up to 90% during this period. Russia and Norway are the largest suppliers of gas to the EU. Their share of the EU's gas imports during 2006 was 62%. The aim of Bengt Söderbergh's thesis work was to evaluate the potential future levels of Norwegian and Russian natural gas exports to the EU. The scenarios for Norwegian and Russian gas production were generated by modeling of production from individual fields. It is the collective production from the largest fields, the so-called "giant fields", that has been predicted. The EU's energy security is, to a considerable degree, dependent on production from a relatively small number of fields in Norway and Russia. In Norway, nearly all gas production comes from 18 larger gasfields, of which 9 can be defined as giant fields. In Russia there are 36 giant fields that are responsible, in principle, for all Russian gas production. The results of the research show that the potential for increasing Norway's exports of gas to the EU is limited. In all the scenarios that were studied, Norwegian gas production will be in decline before 2030. In 2030, Norwegian gas exports to the EU can be as much as 20% lower than today's level. A study of the potential production from the Russian giant oil fields shows that export of Russian gas to the EU can grow, at a maximum, by only 45% by 2030. In absolute terms, this is equivalent to approximately 70 Gm3/y. Furthermore, there are a number of factors that can cause the actual export capacity to be significantly lower. "The single most important factor that will determine whether Russian gas exports to the EU will be able to grow above today's level is whether or not the gasfields on the Jamal peninsula are brought into production from 2012 and onwards. Many of the Russian fields that have yet to bex brought into production are in eastern Siberia and on Sachalin in the Russian far east. Excess production from these regions will, in all likelihood, be exported to the Asian markets, primarily China", says Bengt Söderbergh. With the results and assumptions presented in the thesis it is not possible for the EU to increase its imports by 90% over 2006 levels. For energy security in the EU it is not just imports by pipeline that are a vital question. Currently there is a lively discussion within the EU around the geopolitical consequences of dependence on imports of Russian gas via pipeline. "Whether there is sufficient gas for export to the EU at all in the future is a question that deserves our attention and should be thoroughly investigated and analysed. The results presented in this thesis show that it is equally justifiable to discuss the issues around a future decrease of total gas deliveries to the EU", says Bengt Söderbergh. For more information contact Bengt Söderbergh, tel: (+ 46 70) 425 05 64, email: bengt.soderbergh@fysast.uu.se Read more about the thesis at the University's website. I dag är det en stor dag för min doktorand Bengt Söderbergh, men också en stor dag för vår forskningsgrupp. Fyra års forskning skall granskas och värderas. Opponent är Dr Roger Bentley från Reading University i Storbritannien. Dr Bentley är en världsledande expert inom området. Igår skickade Uppsala universitet ut följande pressmeddelande: Den ryska gasen kommer inte täcka EU:s efterfrågan Idag finns en livlig debatt i EU om de politiska konsekvenserna av beroendet av rysk gas. En fråga som borde lyftas fram är huruvida det i framtiden kommer att finnas tillräckligt med gas överhuvudtaget för export till EU. Det menar fysikern Bengt Söderbergh som i sin avhandling utvärderat framtida nivåer för norsk och rysk gasexport. Avhandlingen försvaras den 19 februari vid Uppsala universitet. Enligt prognoser från International Energy Agency (IEA) kommer naturgasproduktionen inom EU att minska från 2006 års nivå på 216 miljarder kubikmeter naturgas per år (Gm3/år) till 90 Gm3/år 2030. Under samma tidsperiod förväntas efterfrågan på gas att öka kraftigt. Till följd därav kommer importbehovet av gas att öka med upp till 90 procent under denna tidsperiod. Ryssland och Norge är de största leverantörerna av gas till EU. Deras andel av EU:s gasimport under 2006 var 62 procent. Syftet med Bengt Söderberghs avhandling är att utvärdera de potentiella framtida nivåerna för norsk och rysk naturgasexport till EU. Scenarierna för den norska och ryska gasproduktionen har skapats genom modellering av produktionen för enskilda fält. Det är den sammanlagda produktionen från de största fälten, de så kallade gigantfälten, som har blivit prognostiserad. EU:s energisäkerhet är till betydande del avhängig produktionen från ett relativt litet antal fält i Norge och Ryssland. I Norge kommer nästan all gasproduktion från 18 större gasfält, av vilka 9 kan definieras som gigantfält. I Ryssland är det 36 gigantfält som svarar för i princip all rysk gasproduktion. Resultaten visar att potentialen för en ökning av norsk gasexport till EU är begränsad. I alla de scenarier som har studerats är norsk gasproduktion på nedgång före år 2030. Norsk gasexport till EU via pipeline kan år 2030 till och med vara 20 procent lägre än dagens nivå. En studie av den potentiella produktionen från ryska gigantfält ger att exporten av rysk gas till EU maximalt kan öka med 45 procent till år 2030. I absoluta siffror motsvarar det ungefär 70 Gm3/år. Dessutom finns det ett flertal faktorer som kan göra den verkliga exportkapaciteten betydligt lägre. - Den enskilt viktigaste faktorn för att rysk gasexport till EU ska kunna öka från dagens nivå är att gasfälten på den arktiska Jamalhalvön kommer i produktion från år 2012 och framåt. Många av de ryska fält som ännu inte har tagits i produktion finns i östra Sibirien samt på Sachalin i ryska fjärran östern. Överskottsproduktionen från dessa regioner kommer med all sannolikhet att exporteras till de asiatiska marknaderna, och då främst Kina, säger Bengt Söderbergh. Med de resultat och antaganden som presenterats i avhandlingen är det inte möjligt för EU att öka sin import med 90 procent från 2006 års nivå. För energisäkerheten inom EU är det inte endast beroendet av pipeline-import som är en vital fråga. Idag finns det en livlig diskussion inom EU angående de geopolitiska konsekvenserna av importberoendet via pipeline av rysk gas. - Huruvida det i framtiden finns tillräckligt med gas överhuvudtaget för export till EU är en fråga som förtjänar uppmärksamhet och noggrant måste utredas och analyseras. De resultat som presenterats i denna avhandling visar att det är lika berättigat att diskutera problematiken kring en framtida minskning av totala gasleveranser till EU, säger Bengt Söderbergh. För mer information kontakta Bengt Söderbergh, tel: 070-425 05 64, e-post: bengt.soderbergh@fysast.uu.se Läs mer om avhandlingen på universitetets hemsida.

OilWatch

Statement of Climate Justice Now! on the outcomes of COP15

for sign-on by 5 January 2010 Organisations and individuals are invited to endorse the statement visit www.climate-justice-now.org (http://www.climate-justice-now.org) Call for “system change not climate change” unites global movement Corrupt Copenhagen ‘accord’ exposes gulf between peoples demands and elite interests The highly anticipated UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen ended with a fraudulent agreement, engineered by the United States and dropped into the conference at the last moment. The "agreement" was not adopted. Instead, it was "noted" in an absurd parliamentary invention designed to accommodate the United States and permit Ban Ki-moon to utter the ridiculous pronouncement "We have a deal."

La historia de la falsas soluciones climáticas

La Historia del Mercado del Carbono http://storyofcapandtrade.org (http://storyofcapandtrade.org/) es una mirada rápida, bien fundamenta, ademas de entretenida, a la principal solución climática que está siendo discutida en Copenhage y en el Capitol Hill. La conductora Annie Leonard presenta a la gente que está en el centro de este esquema –comerciantes de energía y financieros de Wall Street-. Ahí se examinan “los demonios en los detalles” de la actual propuesta de comercio de carbono: permisos gratuitos para grandes contaminadores, falsas compensaciones y distracciones de lo que realmente es requerido para enfrentar la crisis climática. Si tu has escuchado sobre el comercio de carbono pero no estás seguro de cómo funciona (o a quién beneficia), este documental-filme es para tí. Este documental esta hecho al estilo de La historia de las cosas.

Southeast Asian Leaders - Go for Solution Not Delusion!

A Joint Statement, Copenhagen, Denmark, December 14, 2009Copenhagen - 14 December 2009: We, members of Oilwatch Southeast Asiai and Indonesian Civil Society Forum for Climate Justice (CSF) declare our common position and demands on the current climate negotiation in COP 15 UNFCCC Copenhagen. We have witnessed the lack of leadership among industrial countries to significantly cut carbon emission let alone show their responsibility to support developing countries to tackle the impacts of climate change.

Plazoo

China crude oil imports exceed 50% of total consumption, hits energy security alert level

peakoil.com -> chinadaily.com.cn : China's oil imports will continue to see solid growth this year, with more than half of the country's total oil consumption coming from abroad, industry insiders said. It is inevitable for the country - the world's second largest oil consumer - to see a ...

Vastentijd: afkicken van je olieverslaving

De vastentijd is vorige week van start gegaan; een mooie aanleiding om eens te vasten op je energieverbruik. Tegenwoordig is vasten allang niet meer beperkt tot het matigen van je eten. Ook consuminderen en 40 dagen zonder smsjes vallen onder het begrip vasten, dus waarom dan niet ook het afkicken van ...

Russia overtakes Saudi Arabia, tops global oil production

peakoil.com -> officialwire.com : Russia is pumping more oil than ever before, counteracting OPEC production cut efforts to influence the crude price. Russia in September produced 10 million barrels of oil per day (mbpd), a new record for the country that recently surpassed Saudi Arabia ...

New efficient nanotech materials may boost enhanced geothermal power systems

peakoil.com -> seattlepi.com : New nanotech materials could provide the efficiency boost needed to make geothermal power a more practical energy source if research at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory proves out. Geothermal energy fell out of favor in the early 1980's when few places ...

Michael Ruppert Peak Oil Interview

peakoil.com -> newtopiamagazine.net Interview snippet : Michael Ruppert : ... you have the wrong perspective on China altogether. Globalization is dead, d-e-a-d. It is based upon shipping raw materials and finished goods all over the planet. Hence we have 10,000 mile Caesar salads; tin and ...

Peak Moment TV

Greeting Lowered Expectations with Gratitude

As life becomes harder and more threatening, it also becomes richer, because the fewer expectations we have, the more good things of life become unexpected gifts that we accept with gratitude. Etty Hillesum, An Interrupted Life This is one of the daily  offerings I subscribe to from gratefulness.org, an email service introduced to me by Reta Lawler. Last fall I took Reta’s two-weekend workshop on “Coming Full Circle,” exploring the spiritual transformations possible within the dying process. A deeply moving experience for me, and shared with a richly heartful circle of people: facing our own death, befriending the dying process, permitting ourselves to feel the grief and loss already touched in our lives, writing a letter to ourselves from a loved one who has already passed on. I’ve long been interested in death and dying (actually, the question of “what happens after we die” at age twelve ignited my lifetime spiritual quest). It is a time to personally become more accepting of loss. It certainly will be a major theme gong forward. Robyn’s heart challenges this past year brought into view the possibility of her passage, and then of course my own. We find more people in our own generation becoming, like ourselves, more limited physically. People in both our parents’ generation and our own are passing on. And the personal losses are amplified by larger losses. The limits to growth are looming, as expressed in the financial collapse, the loss of 90% of our forests and large ocean fish, much of our topsoil, the stability of climate, so many wild beings and their habitats. So I balance my awareness of loss with moments of gratitude: watching the seasons a bit more each day, hearing hundreds of sandhill cranes honking in their V’s returning northward, getting visited by two wild turkey toms, the visit of close friends to celebrate my birthday. And these daily quotations invite me to pause, to reflect as well on my biggest gratitude: to be alive in this wondrous everchanging world, and to know it. (Artwork: “Earth Hands” painted by Janaia ca 1983)

Storing Bulk Food -- for Neighborhood Sharing

As a matter of community food security, what if on every street, in every neighborhood, people had a cache of dried foods stored? Not just for their family, but to share with their neighbors if the trucks stopped rolling. Such sharing brings more security and community than defending with guns. That’s the vision of our longtime friend Loraine Webb, right here in our hometown of Nevada City in the Sierra foothills. With her Neighborhood Readiness Project, she’s making it happen with two major steps. She has arranged with locally-owned markets to provide discount prices for quantity bulk foods. And she helped assemble the equipment to pack foods in nitrogen for greater longevity. We taped a show with Loraine and equipment assembler/fabricator Jim Wray. Loraine covered her vision, and the practicalities of buying, packing, storing with more information on the website NeighborRP.org. People are encouraged to buy whatever they want to have on hand, like grains, nuts, legumes, seeds. Jim demonstrated each step of bagging food in plastic bags in which nitrogen replaces oxygen. It includes a holder for the plastic roll; a heat sealer; a small vacuum; a nitrogen tank. His simple setup is replicable by any community. We taped the show at the recently-opened APPLE Center for Sustainable Living in historic downtown Nevada City. It’s an educational and resource hub, a project of Alliance for a Post-Petroleum Local Economy, APPLE of Nevada County, which was founded in 2005 as a response to concerns about the impacts of Peak Oil. The APPLE Center for Sustainable Living is looking into making this equipment available to the public on an on-going basis to meet the continued long-term food storage needs of our community. Naturally, after taping the show, we bagged up 50 pounds of winter wheat and 25 pounds each of red lentils and red quinoa. Our neighbors will know they can come here to party if the food trucks stop rolling! Now we need to spread the word to every neighborhood across the county and the country.

Turning Wood to Gas to Electricity

While in Berkeley recently, we scoped out a future Peak Moment show with the innovative folks at All Power Labs. They produce (and, with their online forum of local tinkerers, are continuing to improve) a low-cost, open source design, “wood gasifiers experimentation kit” that uses biomass like wood chips to produce a gas which runs a generator to produce electricity. We got a quick tour from designer Jim Mason. Brilliant design and simple manufacturing, with the right spirit: share and empower others. It enables distributed power generation, like at our place to charge the batteries in our solar power system in winter, or on farms in northern India. Their units are manufactured from simple stock products, can be shipped worldwide by UPS. Using design templates, they can be manufactured in rural and third-world countries. At this point it’s not quite an off-the-shelf appliance one installs like a washing machine, but a tinkerer will have no problems. A perfect example of of intermediate technology by and for the people (a la E.F. Shumacher, author of Small is Beautiful, which influenced my thinking about sustainability when I read it in the early 1970s). Thanks to viewer Grant Miller, developer of the Village on Sewanee Creek for this lead.

Chris Martenson, creator of the “Crash Course” on the 3 Big E’s

I’ve wanted to tape a conversation with Chris Martenson since I viewed his Crash Course last spring. Chris opens the Crash Course by saying the next twenty years will be totally unlike the last twenty: we’ll face “the greatest economic and physical challenge ever seen by our country, if not humanity.” In this three hour internet video (and DVD) presentation, he demystifies and weaves together the relationships between money, resources, energy and the environment -- starting with the mind-boggling power of exponential growth (be it debt or human population). Chris has a gift for making complex stuff understandable and pointing to its impacts on all of us. We met Chris in Berkeley a day before his talk at the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco (here’s the transcript). Ours was an engaging, fast-paced conversation. Chris started with the three-word analysis for our economic problems: Too Much Debt. And away we went from there -- the implications if we continue the way we’re going, and ways to prepare ourselves. Chris walks his talk. He left his career in the corporate world, sold his home, moved his family to a more sustainable community, and dedicated himself to awakening people about the effects of the crash course we’re all in. Chris is both a realist and yet optimistic about our future, saying he believes we have the time, resources and know-how needed to meet the challenges ahead. He believes that “if we manage the transition elegantly we can actually improve things.” I think that’s a pretty big “if” given the lack of political will, the corporate mainstream media’s blackout on these topics, and the comfort of denial by many who are aware of the problems. But I agree that on the other side of transition, life could be better: more connected to one another and the earth, less pollution, more free time, meaningful work. Many of the folks we meet through Peak Moment TV are already well on their way to that future. Off-camera Chris told us of the small group of men in his community who are preparing and supporting one another to prepare for the times ahead. I hope we can tape their story when we travel East. Chris is a quietly warm, personable man. He wants a bright future for his children and the planet. I’m impressed by his heartful commitment to finding the best ways to communicate our situation in ways that engage people to act purposefully rather than take refuge in denial. I’m really happy we’re bringing him to Peak Moment viewers.

Richard Heinberg: What Nobody Talked About

Richard Heinberg is a big-picture thinker who I find trustworthy and credible. That’s why we’ve produced several Conversations and  presentation DVDs with him. In his latest Museletter he paints a planetary big picture following the Climate Conference in Copenhagen. These excerpts don’t cover his important views on the climate accords, but What Nobody Talked About. I urge you to read the full essay: “The Meaning of Copenhagen.”  His appeal to work locally speaks to our hearts about what we’re doing with Peak Moment TV.  “Climate change is just one of several enormous interrelated dilemmas that will sink civilization unless all are somehow addressed. These include at least five long-range problems: •    topsoil loss (25 billion tons per year), •    worsening fresh water scarcity, •    the death of the oceans (currently forecast for around 2050 based on current trends), •    overpopulation and continued population growth, and •    the accelerating, catastrophic loss of biodiversity. As events are unfolding now, these problems, together with climate change, will combine over the next few years or decades to trigger a food crisis of a scale and intensity that will dwarf to insignificance any famine in human history. To make matters even more grim, there are two near-term dilemmas that may make climate change and these other problems much harder to address: peak oil and economic collapse.” . . . “Because petroleum has been the driver of most economic expansion during the past few decades and there is no ready substitute for it, peak oil basically means the end of economic growth as we have known it. And without economic growth, our entire financial system comes apart. Indeed, that’s exactly what we’ve been seeing over the past 18 months in the failure of trillions of dollars’ worth of bets on future economic expansion. (For a discussion of the role of peak oil in the financial crisis, see ‘Temporary Recession or the End of Growth?’.” . . . “To summarize: three factors--the need for resilience, the lack of effective policy at national and global levels, and the tendency of the best responses to emerge regionally and at a small scale--argue for dealing with the crushing crises of the new century locally, even though there is still undeniable need for larger-scale, global solutions. Does this mean we should give up even trying to work at the national and global levels? Each person will have to make up her or his own mind on that one. To my thinking, Copenhagen is something of a last straw. I have no interest in trying to discourage anyone from undertaking national or global activism. Indeed, there is a danger in taking attention away from national and international affairs: policy could get hijacked not just by parties even less competent than those currently in command, but by ones that are just plain evil.” “Nevertheless, this writer is finally convinced that, with whatever energies for positive change may be available to us, we are likely to accomplish the most by working locally and on a small scale, while sharing information about successes and failures as widely as possible.” “A final note: As 2010 begins we are about to enter the second decade of the 21st century. Historians often remark that the character of a new century doesn’t make itself apparent until its second decade (think World War I). Perhaps peak oil, the global financial crash, and the failure of Copenhagen are the signal events that will propel us into the Century of Decline. If these events are indeed indicative, it will be a century of economic contraction rather than growth; a century less about warnings of environmental constraints and consequences than about the fulfillment of past warnings; and a century of local action rather than grand global schemes.” “I suspect that things are going to be noticeably different from now on. ” This is the most somber message I’ve read from Richard in the past five years. He seems to have largely given up on national and international policy-makers, given the bitter lack of results at Copenhagen, even with an American president whose campaign promised much more. The work we do in our communities may be far more important than we can imagine.

EROI Institute

Transition Culture

Chris Martenson Speaks at the House of Commons

While Chris Martenson was in the UK recently, Peter Lipman and myself did an interview with him, which was fascinating and wonderful, but the memory chip it was on just got corrupted before I could download it and it is lost.  Gah.  As a meagre way of overcoming the profound sense of trauma I am [...]

A March Round-up of What's Happening out in the World of Transition

We've got so many wonderfully diverse and inspiring activities to show you this month…ideas for getting people involved and having fun! And they're here for the sharing… In the UK, TT Luton is organising a series of Grow Your Own events to relocalise food production and consumption, with discussions and a [...]

‘Two Knights in the Castle’: a Totnes jewel….

One of Totnes’s best kept secrets is cartoonist Simon French (who, trivia fans, is the son of the head of Sixth Form from when I was at school).  Every week his column ‘Two Knights in the Castle’, based around two knights sitting on the walls of Totnes Castle, grows more surreal and ploughs its own [...]

The Story of Transition Tales

The Story of Transition Tales by Simon Robinson (MSc student at Schumacher College). This is the story of Transition Tales, a small group within Transition Town Totnes. One of the aims of this project is to raise awareness within Primary and Secondary School children of the transition solution of community led response to [...]

A Day at the Dorset Schools Green Summit

Last Friday I travelled to Dorset on a beautiful clear day which turned from a hard frost to glorious sunshine over the time I was journeying. I was going to Bryanston School which was hosting the Dorset Schools Green Summit, drawing together kids from 40 schools across the county. There were various [...]

Postcarbon Cities

Getting Out From Behind the Wheel

The New York Times' "Green Inc." blog explores reactions to a previous article on the Vauban car-free development in Freiburg, Germany. Post Carbon Cities author Daniel Lerch is quoted in this article.

Small, Green and Good: The role of neglected cities in a sustainable future

Smaller cities have a distinctive and vital role to play in the work of the new century: they will be critical in the move to local agriculture and the development of renewable energy industries. Their underused or vacant industrial space and surrounding tracts of farmland make them ideal sites for sustainable land-use policies, or "smart growth." (This article quotes Post Carbon Cities author Daniel Lerch.)

Post Carbon Cities ending daily news posts

As of 10 January 2009 we are no longer collecting news articles on the Post Carbon Cities website. When we started this service two years ago, news and information on city responses to energy and climate uncertainty was hard to come by. Climate change and fossil fuel depletion have since become widely recognized concerns among local decision-makers and planners, so the time has come to shift our efforts elsewhere. Post Carbon Institute continues to do research on how local governments can best respond to and prepare for energy and climate uncertainty. Our database of local government actions will remain on the site and continue to be updated, as will our accompanying resource database of relevant resolutions and reports. If you'd like to keep following the news we find interesting, you can visit or subscribe to our feed on the bookmark-sharing site del.icio.us. Our News Archives will remain online for a few more months. Daniel Lerch, author of Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty, will continue blogging and posting articles on the Post Carbon Institute website. We hope our work at Post Carbon Institute continues to be useful to you. Please send your questions, concerns and suggestions to us using the contact form.

Sydney directs its development upward

Sydney's plans for future development are in the direction of dense, transit-accessible neighborhoods instead of traditional sprawling suburbs. This development pattern is expected to save the city hundreds of millions of dollars in infrastructure, transport, health and greenhouse gases.

Transit: Long-scorned, key to metros' future?

The MTA's new report, "Sustainability and the MTA," outlines a transit program for the New York metro region that could well be applied to other metro regions.

Community Solution

False Hope or Hardship? Comments on Pope and McKibben Essays

February 4, 2009 By Pat Murphy Executive Director, Community Solutions Carl Pope, head of the Sierra Club, in a January 22, 2009 article entitled "Moving the U.S. off Carbon with Less Pain, More Gain" takes issue with Bill McKibben's November 5, 2008 article entitled "President Obama's Big Climate Challenge." (Both published in Yale Environment 360, a publication of the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies). McKibben identifies the scale and risk of the challenge noting it will be unpopular and could damage Obama's political future. Pope begins his critique by acknowledging that he shares McKibben's conviction that we need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80 to 90% by mid-century. But Pope argues that the right investment in technology is all that is needed to manage this reduction. The essence of his position is that a well-designed package of market reforms — which does not require austerity — will lead to a prosperous, low-carbon future. He writes, "The assumption that the costs of climate recovery will be prohibitively high simply does not stand up to scrutiny." I believe that it is Pope's positions that do not pass scrutiny and that it matters a great deal whether Pope is correct. Pope himself says there's a fundamental difference between a mind-set that concludes sacrifice is needed and a mind-set that sees only an economically attractive transition. He labels this as the difference between "sacrifice" and "reform." Of course, "sacrifice" sounds disconcerting, even scary, while "reform" sounds comforting and moderate. Pope has thus slanted his argument against what he calls sacrifice. By implication, Pope's position is that no significant lifestyle changes will be required from us. Pope's main arguments begin with a reference to a McKinsey & Company report, which says reducing U.S. emissions by 2030 could be achieved with a negative cost, since the need for reductions represents investment opportunities that would increase the productivity of the overall U.S. economy. Pope discusses the case of California, pointing out that in a 35-year period the state's residents maintained constant per capita energy consumption while the rest of the nation increased 50%. Unfortunately for Pope's thesis, this period of California's history is not one of reduction in energy use. Remember that Pope conceded we need a national reduction of around 90% in greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve that reduction, Californians per capita will still need to make reductions on the order of 50 to 60% by 2050 (while the rest of us may need to reach a full 90%). Is Pope suggesting that Californians can make 50 to 60% cuts in their energy use without sacrifice? Pope next presents a picture of today's creaky and anachronistic energy system. He says, "Right now, we generate electricity in power plants designed -- and in some cases built -- in the Taft era (hydro), the Coolidge era (coal), or the Kennedy era (nuclear). We ship electricity in transmission grids equipped with electromechanical switches whose fundamental design goes back 80 years. We burn gasoline in internal combustion engines that haven't changed much since Henry Ford, and those engines are in SUVs built on 40-year old assembly lines. And 50 percent of the fuel we use to heat and cool our buildings radiates directly into the sky because many of those buildings have never been modernized for energy performance." Pope's portrait is, at best, highly misleading. He does not propose replacing the Taft-era dams with new ones. (And why would he? I suspect their generators have been replaced or rewired many times.) Aging coal plants are not necessarily inefficient. It's true that coal plants were once less than 20% efficient and now are near 35% (including the latest ones) but there is little room left for improvement in the technology of turning water into steam. Electromechanical switches are not high energy consumers and replacing them with electronic ones will save little fuel. Contrary to Pope's assertion, the internal combustion engine has in fact improved by about 1.5% per year ever since Henry Ford's time. (The best-explored alternative, the fuel cell engine, has never made it out of prototype phase.) In short, Pope's evidence does not support his implied conclusion that there are significant reductions in fossil fuel use to be gained by modernizing the nation's electricity generation and auto assembly processes. Pope moves on to endorse a complaint we often hear from business interests, namely that rapid improvement will come to energy markets if we only eliminate barriers to innovation. But what barriers does he have in mind? It isn't barriers to innovation that explain the snail-like process toward carbon capture, or the recent cancellation of Future Gen in particular -- it's the sheer technical challenge of storing billions of tons of CO2 underground for thousands of years. IGCC power plants on a world-wide basis have not proven themselves reliable and efficient. Improvements in wind and solar technology have come from massive amounts of government subsidies, including major contributions from the government's own research labs like NREL. Both wind and solar are now growing at 50% per year (still with subsidies) and there has been massive public and private investments in both technologies -- but prices remain high, and the sum total of their contribution to the nation's electricity supply remains under 2%. Pope seems to imagine that shifts in U.S. government policy can mandate rapid technical breakthroughs. But the evidence shows that governments in other nations have subsidized and invested for years without earth-shattering results. Wind power still requires a big propeller and a generator. Fortunately, Pope does accept that a rapid national transition to a low-carbon economy will not be without some pain and expense. He acknowledges that some parties will not be as better off as others. He admits that there will be a significant price tag to accelerate the transition. But he aims to convince us that this price tag will come from making those who emit carbon pay for their pollution and the costs of climate disruption. Somehow, in his view, taxing the emitters will both accelerate the transition from fossil fuels and make the overall global economy fairer. But he ignores the basic fact that the emitters of carbon are us! It's not the Ford or General Motors plants that are the problem, it's the trucks and SUVs that we Americans have chosen to drive and the big houses we have chosen to inhabit. Does Pope believe that we will call a significant new tax on personal carbon emissions a "reform" rather than a "sacrifice"? Pope says he agrees with McKibben when the latter says, "Doing what actually needs to be done . . . would involve -- directly or indirectly -- raising the cost of continuing to live as we do right now." But then he focuses on the wastefulness of people who drive Hummers, or air condition rooms that have fires blazing in the fireplace. (This is a miniscule part of the population) He acknowledges how much "energy waste happens because ordinary people live in leaky buildings with outdated appliances" but doesn't recognize the sacrifice implied when he also concedes that such people "cannot easily or affordably upgrade." He expresses sympathy for small business people buying a Ford Econoline with an old design that gets 15 mpg, but then wonders why they don't drive modern hybrid panel trucks that get 30 mpg. (He criticizes Detroit for not offering such a vehicle; but I doubt any global manufacturer offers one.) Pope seems to conclude it is Detroit's fault for not offering better vehicles, while completely ignoring the choice of tens of millions of Americans to drive SUVs when more efficient cars are available. This familiar environmentalist refrain -- blame the producer but not the consumer -- serves to obscure the financial hit (another sacrifice, perhaps?) that millions of owners of low-mileage vehicles are now bound to take. Pope claims to share McKibben's despair over U.S. materialism but insists that austerity for the American people will not be required. He hypothesizes two schools of thought on this issue. One school suggests modest carbon reduction goals to mitigate economic pain or the give-away of carbon permits to businesses. The other school compensates those who use carbon sinks. He notes in this case that Peabody Coal does not own the Amazon, nor Exxon-Mobil the Maldive Islands, but the corporations use the Amazon and Indian Ocean to absorb their emissions at huge cost to others. Who are these "others"? I assume Pope means me and all the other citizens -- citizens, that is, who use electricity from Peabody Coal and drive vehicles fueled with Exxon oil. Once more, in Pope's version of the story, the responsibilities of citizens are not called into question -- oil companies are the sole evil-doers. Pope goes on to compare his views on revenues from carbon permits with those of McKibben, and finds the latter's lacking. Pope wants to use the revenue from carbon permits to aggressively pursue better technologies. He argues for investing in energy efficiency rather than new power plants. He believes that serious energy market reform and regulation of the producer can rapidly reduce the demand for fossil fuels of the consumer by putting a price on carbon emissions. Pope then calculates that a carbon price of around $30 per ton can be funded by a gasoline tax of approximately 30 cents per gallon. Revenues would go to the U.S. Treasury, and Congress would allocate them first to low-income consumers to mitigate the increased costs of gasoline and electricity, and second to investments in climate change solutions with a focus on energy efficiency and renewable energy. Finally, he wants building codes to reflect the American Institute of Architects' goals of achieving carbon-neutral buildings by 2030 (new construction only), ignoring the 100s of millions of existing inefficient buildings. Pope proposes incentives including upping the price of carbon generated to send a more powerful signal to investors to back low-carbon alternatives if progress is slow. Other incentives would return some carbon taxes to the citizens to allow them to buy more efficient products. About $60 billion to $180 billion a year would go to the government to meet the various costs of transitioning to a low-carbon economy. Pope acknowledges that he does not know how fast we can improve the energy productivity and lower the carbon/energy ratio of our economy. One might suspect that he also doesn't know how much it would cost. He argues for redirecting benefits from the polluting and uncompetitive technologies of the past to cleaner, higher performance, new energy options. Finally he says the level of sacrifice we face will fall in direct proportion to how effectively we use carbon revenues to motivate and deliver the new energy options. However, he provides no analysis or estimates of time and costs to achieve reductions -- seemingly just hoping the technology is there somewhere. What Pope does not see is that by taking the positions discussed above, he has not refuted McKibben's call for sacrifice. Americans are perfectly free to purchase new energy-saving products and technologies right now, but would have to sacrifice some other purchase to do so. There are triple-paned argon-filled windows on the market, for example, which would reduce home heating costs. But they are expensive enough that many would call buying them a "sacrifice." Gas-saving cars using advanced technology have been available now for a decade. But hybrid sales are still less than 2% of the market. High-mileage Honda Fits and Toyota Yarises are available for those who can't afford a hybrid -- granted these models require sacrifices of size and comfort compared to SUVs. Americans can buy a host of energy efficient products today — assuming they are willing to give up comfort, convenience, and cash. Their cars might be a bit more crowded and might not be as safe. Americans can buy more energy-efficient houses -- if they are willing to put more of the construction cost into a better building envelope, and sacrifice larger rooms. Utility bills can be lowered by settling for smaller appliances or turning off the extras in the garage. Compact fluorescent bulbs can be installed immediately, though few Americans have actually done even this. Americans have consistently rejected energy-saving technologies for the sake of style, one-upmanship, comfort and convenience. In my view, Bill McKibben said something important and accurate when he pointed out that if Americans are to achieve the ecologically necessary reductions in carbon dioxide emissions, they will need to sacrifice many things -- and not just those which are considered to be luxuries. Carl Pope, by contrast, suggests that we will not need to give up anything. Technology and innovation, spurred by simple changes in government policy, will provide us a 60 mpg 4,000 pound SUV and a 3,000 square foot McMansion that will use less energy than an electric bike and a modest apartment. Mr. Pope's paper came out at roughly the same time as the January/February issue of Sierra magazine. The cover of that magazine included a figure painting a cartoon house green. (Yes, the term "green-wash" came to mind.) On page 12 of the magazine, the columnist "Mr. Green" responded to a woman in Dayton, Ohio inquiring about the cost-effectiveness of solar panels on her home. Mr. Green responds that installing a solar energy system to generate power for the average household costs roughly $80,000 after rebates and tax credits. Will this woman be able to add panels without sacrifice? I think not -- Americans have no such deep pockets to make these changes. A second article in the magazine entitled "Emerald Cities" suggests in an upbeat manner that major changes are happening in urban areas and refers to LEED building standards, product of the U.S. Green Building Council which has certified only two thousand of the nation's 5 million commercial buildings. And LEED buildings at best reduce energy use by only 25%. He does not seem to know that the so-called "green" LEED standards and Energy Star appliance ratings have saved only a few percent of the energy consumed in buildings — after pushing their brands for over a decade. And what about the 100,000,000 existing homes? How much will they cost to retrofit and can Americans do this while maintaining their current life style? I think not. Bill McKibben's essay, by contrast with Pope's critique, is grounded in a realistic sense of the difficulties we face. It will be long and hard to gain significant efficiency for a new infrastructure when so called "green" buildings and cars offer on average no more than a 15% improvement in efficiency. Making the existing infrastructure energy efficient involves change of an almost unimaginable scale. This will not be achieved without massive sacrifice from Americans, voluntary or involuntary. The idea that investment in technology is all that is needed is naïve and dangerous. The crisis is huge and Winston Churchill's comments come to mind as he readied England for a long war: "I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears, and sweat. We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind." There was a war on then -- and there is no less a war on now as we battle the U.S. materialism over which Pope says he shares McKibben's despair. Pole calls for a new environmentalism. And McKibben and millions of others, including myself, share this sentiment. But a new environmentalism based on the market economy and the now discredited thesis that greed is good is essentially no environmentalism at all. Environmentalists who claim there will be no need for sacrifice, and reject Churchill's call, are part of the problem, not the solution.

The Risks of Plan B

By Rob Content Program Manager, Community Solutions The details are still under intense discussion in Democratic Party power centers like Chicago and New York. But there is good reason to expect that within the coming weeks and months the Obama administration will announce a broad set of policy initiatives, likely including a heavy dose of executive orders. These policies will be designed first and foremost to address the deepening economic collapse by reassuring bankers, autoworkers, and road crews across the United States that they will still have work-sites to go to. Many of the jobs the government will try to save will involve energy and transportation, such as the construction and maintenance of today's low-mileage car models, and the repair of roads and bridges on which fleets of commercial trucks deliver consumer goods to retail shelves. Efforts such as these can be seen as attempts to extend business as usual, or "Plan A." Plan A, to which the Bush-Cheney administration closely hewed, consists of encouraging the fossil fuel industry to extend its traditional dominance of the nation's energy supply operations. This includes mining and drilling, refining and transporting, and, more generally, defining and shaping public understanding of where electricity, transport and heating fuels, and fertilizers and pesticides/herbicides all come from. Plan A may have suffered a bit of a dirty face the last eight years at the hands of the Iraq War, expanded public concern over global warming, and spikes in prices at the pump and in utility bills. Nevertheless, it remains hugely profitable, deeply entrenched in the nation's infrastructure, and responsible for supplying the lion's share of the energy on which the consumer/commuter's daily lifestyle utterly depends. But the Obama administration's policies on energy and the environment are also likely to include some key elements that differ significantly from those of the departing Bush administration. As such, they will deserve to be recognized as the opening stage of a distinct "Plan B." Current indications are that we will see pages borrowed from Jimmy Carter's conservation playbook -- surely a good thing, and one to be welcomed by most in the peak oil and climate change community. Also likely to win general endorsement would be an effort to publicize and extend the "greener cities" approach spearheaded by Richard M. Daley in Chicago. And many among us will likewise be pleased to see a more prominent place at the table for the wind and solar industries. Unlike Plan A, Plan B will emphasize waste reduction, the development of alternative energy sources (especially renewable ones), and investment in higher efficiency technological innovations. We should not underestimate the space still available for Plan B to be fully explored, and then deeply embraced, by American consumers. Acceptance of the hybrid car has been steady but also slow; nearly a decade passed before the first million vehicles were on the roads. By and large, Americans still "want" gas-guzzlers -- even if many breadwinners can no longer find the credit to purchase them or always afford to fill their gas tanks. Our home insulation efforts lag behind our generally low awareness of their affordable benefits. Only a tiny fraction of Americans purchase carbon-offsets for their airplane trips or electricity consumption. The experience of long-distance travel by air or car, for business or for pleasure, remains a fixture of "the good life," one to which many are eager to return just as soon as the government delivers its solutions to our current problems. For these reasons (and many more), a shift in our national discussion of energy issues in which Plan B finds its voice alongside Plan A should probably be acknowledged as a profound -- even perhaps a revolutionary -- change. And there's the rub. For many in the Peak Oil community -- and certainly for us at Community Solutions -- the success of Plan B is a long shot. Any administration, however well-advised and civic-minded, that commits itself and our remaining resources to Plan B is gambling. The success of Plan B depends upon a series of technological breakthroughs which in turn will depend upon the availability of massive financial resources to sustain technological research over at least several decades; even more massive resources would then be required to implement the results. Committing so much to such an uncertain approach indicates to us a limited understanding of how dire our energy predicament has already become. Those of us who see the brightest prospects for a secure and sustainable culture in widespread voluntary curtailment of energy consumption -- what we call "Plan C" -- therefore harbor a set of serious reservations about Plan B. We begin with mixed feelings at best about fresh infusions of research funds for carbon capture and sequestration, so-called "advanced" bio-fuels, and carbon nuclear fusion. We are concerned that political speeches and policy goals contain so few acknowledgements that these unproven technologies may in fact turn out to be unprovable. In addition, we will find it hard to swallow endorsements by the new Administration of such pale green approaches as LEED standard building construction, intensive new public subway or trolley developments, and "green" consumerism. (Our Executive Director Pat Murphy has also now developed a highly critical evaluation of the pluggable hybrid car -- which, as he argues, should more credibly be called "the coal car" since its batteries would be recharged with electricity generated mostly by coal-burning power plants.) At Community Solutions, we therefore advocate instead a set of much deeper green approaches. (We have discussed labeling them "red" to signal our sense of urgency.) We support Passive House building construction standards -- particularly as they may be used to retrofit existing homes, a Smart Jitney approach to mass ride-sharing using the existing vehicle fleet, and a significant curtailment of the consumer economy in favor of a simpler, healthier, non-affluent style of life. What the elements of Plan C have in common -- and so what distinguishes them from the bulk of Plan B approaches -- is that they require no technological breakthroughs, can be implemented starting immediately, and would be far less time and resource-intensive to complete. No doubt others involved in Peak Oil discussions would change a point here or there in their own assessment of Plan C's advantages over Plan B. Strenuous disagreement over certain points would expected and respected as well. But my aim here is to draw attention to a larger dynamic -- and the potential consequences of failing to understand that dynamic in advance. The dynamic is this: An energy transition from Bush's Plan A to Obama's Plan B is likely to be felt as a major and decisive shift in U.S. national consciousness, as well as in policy detail. This shift of plans may be as wrenching and controversial a change in national character as has been achieved since the gradual awakenings of the civil rights era. It should be no surprise that a shift of this magnitude would contain some risk of failure, and the possibility that Plan B might fail therefore merits open and serious discussion. We should be talking about whether Plan B is really a risk worth taking -- and  even if so, whether some investment should simultaneously be made in the low-risk, high-reward Plan C. As a contribution to this discussion, we suggest a challenge to policy planners in the new administration: Invite the public to articulate its greatest concerns about how and why Plan B might fail. We believe there will be many concerns along these lines. Our own top three are the following: • The scale of financial investment in the electrical grid, as well as the power plant infrastructure, that would be required to meet national energy needs through wind and solar generation (and the fossil fuel supply required to back them up during periods of intermittency). • The time-scale to replace 100%, or even 50%, of the electricity supplied by today's conventional coal-burning plants with electricity generated from alternative energy sources, either nuclear or renewable. • The additional demand on the national electricity supply if 20 million Americans, or even 10 million, purchase cars that are recharged by plugging in to the grid (and so at best achieve carbon dioxide emission reductions no better than those of today's non-pluggable hybrids). As the Inauguration of Barack Obama approaches, we find ourselves waiting, like many of our fellow citizens, to see what a charismatic, talented, and credentialed new generation of leaders will offer us. And we find ourselves concerned that they will come up short. Any version of Plan B based upon the core elements outlined above will be in our estimation too little, too late. The new President's program on energy and the environment will also be, on deeper analysis, his approach to the declining availability of fossil fuels and to global climate change. As such, it will represent our nation's best chance to address these fundamental challenges at their roots. Should this opportunity be missed, we will all experience the consequences of further delay in making the deep changes that are required -- the kind of realistic, practical changes that characterize Plan C.

Promoting the Passive House -- A Report on the 3rd Annual North American Passive House Conference

December 10, 2008 By Pat Murphy Executive Director, Community Solutions The passive house could play a major role in cutting energy consumption and offers the best way to radically alter our building practices. I have been involved with the organization promoting the concept in America -- the Passive House Institute US -- for two years. I attended its 2nd annual conference in Urbana, Illinois last year, and this spring I agreed to take part in the founding meeting of the Passive House Alliance, a group of about 20 people building and teaching about passive houses. I was also pleased to be asked to make a presentation at the 3rd annual conference held last month in Duluth, Minnesota. I have also begun to implement passive house principles in my own buildings and around my hometown. Last year I retrofitted a 1,000 square foot house in Yellow Springs using passive house techniques -- it now has a tenant with extremely low heating bills. I also had the pleasure of introducing architect Katrin Klingenberg, the organizer of the annual U.S. Passive House Conferences and co-director of the Passive House Institute US, to an organization in Yellow Springs who is now using her as a consultant for a multi-family building to be constructed next year. While 2008 saw the third conference in the U.S., this year marked the 12th European Passive House conference, held each year in Germany. Over a 1,000 people attended the 12th European conference in Germany, compared to about 150 who attended the US conference in Duluth. It is only recently that this important movement has been brought to the U.S., largely through the efforts of Katrin and her partner, Mike Kernagis. Together, Katrin and Mike co-direct the Passive House Institute US, as well as ECO-Lab , a non-profit organization that designs energy-efficient buildings for low to middle-income families. I have visited three of these homes and they are delightful, affordable, and environmentally healthy. To be called a "passive house," a building must meet the passive house performance standards which are set by the Passive House Institute in Germany. The basic standard is that a building must consume no more than 15 kilowatt-hours per square meter in heating energy per year (equivalent to 4746 BTU per square foot per year). This is achieved by constructing a building envelope, (floors, walls, ceilings, and a roof) that is extremely well insulated and air tight. This means R40 in the walls and R60 in the roof and floor. The building must not leak more air than 0.6 times the house volume per hour at 50 pascals of pressure. The result is a building that uses 90% less heating and air conditioning energy than a typical building according to the Passive House Institute US's website, "A Passive House is a very well-insulated, virtually air-tight building that is primarily heated by passive solar gain and by internal gains from people, electrical equipment, etc. Energy losses are minimized. Any remaining heat demand is provided by an extremely small source. Avoidance of heat gain through shading and window orientation also helps to limit any cooling load, which is similarly minimized. An energy recovery ventilator provides a constant, balanced fresh air supply. The result is an impressive system that not only saves up to 90% of space heating costs, but also provides a uniquely terrific indoor air quality." Last month's conference opened with a presentation by architect Katrin Klingenberg. Born in East Germany, she came to the U.S. several years ago and settled in Urbana, Illinois. Unknown to her at the time, the University of Illinois had been one of the leading institutions focusing on low-energy-consumption building in the 1970s and 1980s, during the first U.S. energy crisis. This happy coincidence placed Katrin's new low energy building movement in a historically hospitable location and the juxtaposition has benefited both the Passive House Institute US and the University. In her talk Katrin gave a history of the passive house, including its remarkable performance characteristics. Katrin noted that saving energy may no longer be a matter of choice; it may be necessary for survival and world peace. She notes that if we start building only passive new houses today, and we retrofit all homes fully to the passive house standard, then we will be able, with renewable energy sources, to stabilize our climate by 2030. A big cost advantage of the passive house comes from eliminating the furnace and using the energy recovery ventilation system as a back-up furnace and air exchanger. We not only can get to near zero energy use this way, but to near zero emissions. In addition, Katrin said that we can't think only about the energy used to operate a house; we must also consider the energy embedded in it, and about the emissions its operation causes. The experiences of passive house builders in Germany show that all this can be done, Katrin said. She noted that the passive house is not a purely European conception -- in fact, it walked in its baby shoes here in the U.S. with the work of people like William Shurcliff, author of many books in the 70s and 80s on super-insulated houses and solar energy. Katrin envisioned a time when the way we run our building construction industry is going to be completely changed. Finally, she emphasized that the benefits of passive house building go beyond low-energy use and carbon dioxide emissions. It's also about comfort, well-being, and air quality. Katrin likens living in a passive house to living outside. I followed Katrin with a presentation on Plan C, which is both the focus of our organization Community Solutions and the title of my recent book, Plan C: Community Survival Strategies for Peak Oil and Climate Change. I noted how I had been affected by a presentation at the Affordable Comfort, Inc. Home Performance Conference in April 2007 where Dr. Brendt Steinmueller from Germany gave a plenary speech introducing the German Passive House to the U.S. I also had the opportunity to attend a special meeting set up by Linda Wigington of Affordable Comfort, Inc. titled "Moving Existing Homes Toward Carbon Neutrality," which kicked off an ongoing retrofitting white paper. I showed pictures of our own deep retrofit using the passive house approach and equipment and advocated retrofitting the full stock of 100,000,000 existing American residences to the passive house standard. The next speaker was Dr. Stephan Tanner who entitled his talk "The Green Bridge." Stephan says that we can either continue increasing our overall energy demand but replace 85 percent of the fossil fuel supply with other energy sources (the active keep burning approach), or we can improve efficiency by 85 percent and thereby reduce our need for fuels (the passive save fuels approach). We need a green bridge, he said, to carry us from the active to the passive approach. Stephan then noted that the technology for reducing energy use by 85 percent is already available at no additional cost, and asked why we aren't choosing this. His own answer is that we view the world incorrectly. In particular, we see only the world's industrial age, and must shift our view if we are to solve the problem of energy efficiency. The mindset we already have won't get us where we need to go, according to Stephan. Holistic optimization is the key, he asserted, if we are to shed the blinding assumptions of the industrial age and lead a new renaissance. The passive house is a manifestation of a different approach because through it we can see the world differently, and therefore make different choices. Stephan also noted that because of today's collapsing real estate market, many people may be stuck with their existing homes and so see the wisdom of making energy improvements. He observed that many of us have yet to overcome the "buy cheap, sell high" mentality when it comes to buildings. Stephen brought widespread laughter from the audience when he ended his talk by saying, "If clients are serious about greatly reducing their energy consumption, I'm happy to work with them. If they want a plaque, I send them to LEED." In the afternoon session Mike McCulley, now an associate professor at the University of Illinois School of Architecture, offered a historical perspective. He showed a variety of older houses, including his own, which he had designed and built to use little energy. He described details of his experience building super-insulated houses during the nation's 1970s energy crisis, including his contribution to the design of an important early experiment in low energy building, the so-called "Illinois low-cal house." Mike discussed the evolution of the passive solar house concept during that period, including the discovery that devoting 10 percent of a wall to triple-glazed windows resulted in optimal energy efficiency. Automated thermal shutters added even higher savings. Mike noted that such learning ran counter to the conventional thought that on the south side of a house using passive solar design, the more glass the better. Mike described almost being lynched at passive solar conferences in the 1970s for refuting this belief. In America, we tend to think that if a little is good, then a lot is better, when actually moderation is best in many cases. A "more is better" approach to passive solar design often results in overheating and the fading of interior furniture, rather than increased energy savings. Mike was careful to point out some of the limits of the super-insulated houses in that earlier period. The need for reliable ventilation strategies was evident in the 1970s, but equipment able to meet the need was not available. Early heat exchangers required a great deal of energy to operate and ductwork located in unheated spaces wasted energy. Mike summed up his historical perspective by saying that work on super-insulated houses in the 70s had made great strides, which have been built upon and refined in more recent work on the passive house. He noted that different cultures at different times have taken the lead in developing knowledge and improving technology. For example top work was done in Sweden for a time, and today the leadership role is being taken in Germany. Since the passive house is now generating interest worldwide, it is possible that other nations will now contribute major jumps in innovation. American efforts of the 1970s were not in vain and we should be grateful for the work that was done by early pioneers such as Mike. The next speaker, Manfred Brausem, is a German architect and developer who has been building to the passive house (known as Passivhaus in Germany) standards for well over a decade. He built the first passive house development in 1998. He is currently at work on projects worldwide including a passive house pilot project in Chile. Manfred's presentation, titled "What's in the Box?" was more like Santa Claus delivering presents than a technical presentation. The audience of builders and architects felt like kids in a candy shop. Manfred literally reached into a large aluminum box he'd brought along, and pulled out examples of the best and newest technologies that are being used in passive house building. His box contained items both familiar and strange. In many cases he presented us with things we had never seen before. Especially impressive were the fascinating devices and materials now available to construct the intricate passive house ventilation systems that replace conventional heating and air conditioning systems, such as the bulky ductwork that often runs through unconditioned attics or crawl spaces, wasting much energy in the process. Manfred's talk was enough to make any student of the passive house approach begin planning to attend future conferences in Germany. That country is several years ahead of the U.S. and moving forward at an astounding rate -- in large part because the German government's commitment to the Kyoto protocol has created a business environment in which firms are rewarded for helping citizens cut their per capita energy use. Mike LeBeau and Rachel Wagner talked about their experiences and processes in building high performance homes. Mike's firm, Conservation Technologies, has been specializing in high performance and low energy building solutions for cold and very cold climates. He first heard of passive houses many years ago, and attended one of the early conferences in Europe. Rachel Wagner is the co-owner of Wagner Zaun Architects in Duluth, a firm that specializes in sustainable design. Since 1996 she has specialized in designing energy efficient residences for cold climates. Rachel and Mike's joint presentation about how they design and implement projects was highly impressive, offering us excellent preparation for field trips two days later to visit both a house they completed last year and their project currently under construction. Seeing the theory embodied in practice was very educational. The mechanical systems designed by Mike were eye-opening, and Rachel's architectural design was beautiful as well as functional from an energy standpoint. Linda Wigington opened the second day of the conference with a talk on "Deep Reductions in Existing Homes -- Beyond Business as Usual." Linda is a founder of Affordable Comfort, Inc., an organization promoting building performance, and helps put on its annual conference. She has been a consultant for residential energy programs throughout the country. In 2002 she received the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy's (ACEEE) "Champion of Energy Efficiency" award. Linda's presentation focused on retrofitting existing homes. I had seen a version of this talk at the July conference of ACEEE where Linda challenged the attendees to go further than the conventional goal of reducing home energy use by 10 to 30 percent. There was a mixed response at her ACEEE presentation, but this was not the case in Duluth. At the Passive House conference she was speaking to the converted –to attendees all committed to very deep energy savings. Linda described her Thousand Home Challenge, an effort to achieve deep retrofits for 1,000 homes around the nation as quickly as possible. Linda's marriage of the relatively new passive house movement with the more established weatherization movement makes her a very key player in the energy reduction effort. Linda has spoken at several Community Solutions conferences and has achieved an impressive low energy life style. Marc Rosenbaum is a Licensed Professional Engineer in mechanical engineering with bachelor and graduate degrees from MIT, and special expertise in heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) He is the principle of Energysmiths, an organization founded in 1979, to show that sustainable communities can only be based on renewable resources. Marc has focused on integrating renewable energy systems, day-lighting, high performance envelope design, health-sustaining mechanical systems, food production and storage, ecological waste systems, efficient electrical and water systems, and benign, resource-efficient materials selection into his projects. He described an impressive recent super-insulation project on an existing house. He shared his view that, "It's not what's sustainable that matters, but what's survivable." He hopes that he is wrong about the seriousness of the problems facing us and that a Plan B approach based on renewable energy will work, but he highly doubts it. Marc envisions people living in smaller spaces, and farming in the suburbs. Marc showed a delightful series of cartoons describing the future of our current housing stock: some will be bulldozed, some will be shared, some will be used only in the summer, and in others people will combine households. And a certain number, he trusts, will have deep energy retrofits that provide comfort while using as little energy as possible. Father-and-son team Ty and Ben Newell's presentation was entitled "Design and Operation of a Conditioning Energy Recovery Ventilator (CERV) for Passive Houses." Ben is the President of Newell Instruments and Ty is a retired faculty member in mechanical engineering at the University of Illinois. They are currently attempting to design an integrated unit that will provide whole-house heating, cooling and humidity control for passive houses. Their prototype system is about the size of a window air conditioner. The engineering details of the project were described. They emphasized that integrating the different air treatment machines (heat, cooling, moisture control) allows small units to perform all three functions because a passive house itself is so efficient that conventional units are oversized, expensive and wasteful. This kind of breakthrough is critical. I could not help but think of the legions of engineers working at GE and other giant corporations laboring away to wring out another few percent of energy savings from devices built for big energy wasteful homes. Mark Hoberecht and Ed Shank presented "Challenges and Benefits of Using Straw Bale Construction to Meet Passive House Standards. " Mark has degrees in Engineering, Science and Sustainable Systems and has made a career in natural building techniques. Ed is a mechanical engineer with extensive experience in designing mechanical systems for LEED buildings. They provided an analysis of straw bale buildings and how they compare to other passive structures. There are several straw bale buildings in my town and I am familiar with the details of their construction. This presentation carried what I know a step further, demonstrating new and innovative ways to use straw rather than simply stacking the bales with a post and beam structure. It is interesting to me to see how straw bale technology, at least in my area, has shown developments parallel to those of the passive house approach to super-insulation. Ludwig Rongen was the second speaker who had travelled from Germany. His talk was on "Quality in Passive House Planning and Construction -- Assuring Home Owner Comfort." He emphasized that the passive house is not a high-tech house but rather a low-tech house. He noted that construction managers must pay special attention to the workmanship of a continuous airtight cover and make sure there are no thermal bridges. Less is more when it comes to penetrations in the passive house. He noted the importance of qualified components, like double-sided scotch tape. Ludwig described the Caritas House Network, which is the first passive house senior housing project in Europe and slated for completion in April 2009. Ludwig says that the increased cost to build a passive house in Germany is about five to seven more percent for a single family house that is 100 square meters (about 1076 square feet) but that there is no additional cost for a larger home or a multi-family building. He asserted that the passive house is now really the cheapest type of house to build when life-cycle considerations are included as well as building costs. As Europeans tend to understand better than Americans, life cycle costs include the lifetime cost of energy to heat and cool the house. From a financial perspective, Ludwig concluded, it makes no sense not to build a passive house. Chris Benedict and Henry Gifford have been busy retrofitting large multi-family buildings in New York City. They are focused on how to build a passive house type of building without increasing the cost, a key factor for persuading consumers, bankers, and others to consider the approach. Chris noted that in the public and political realm, people are now thinking about renewable energy sources. She wondered what the best word would be to describe people building low energy buildings -- "Reducibles"? "Reductibles?" She described being upset with seeing buildings called "green" just because their designs included a lot of glass. Chris and Henry said that they are competing with more than 40 non-profits who are doing energy efficiency audits in New York City (or at least say they are), but who don't really measure anything. I was amazed to learn from them about the challenges of dealing with energy use and ways to reduce it in large apartment buildings and delighted to hear about their innovative solutions. Henry, on his web site Henrygifford.com, has an article arguing that many LEED-certified buildings are actually using more energy than conventional buildings. I am sympathetic with his critique. There is a great deal of pure hype about green building these days, and the small improvements being touted by some of the leading organizations are not really making a dent in our energy/CO2 problem. A great deal of technical information and a variety of theoretical perspectives on energy efficient building were presented at the 3rd annual Passive House -- US Conference. Some were complex, focusing on mechanical systems and new products (such as those presented by Manfred and by Marc). It was heartening to get a deeper sense of the integrity and promise of this organization and the insights that inspired it. In general I continue to be solidly impressed with the passive house models and encouraged by getting to know more of the practiced builders and architects who appreciate its merits. It seemed that in the U.S. hardly anyone has quite achieved the full standard yet, but the approach has been successfully adopted by many builders and designers who understand that practice makes perfect. At the end of the conference I talked with Linda Wigington about the relationship of the passive house model to her Thousand Home Challenge. She is less concerned with meeting the exact passive house specifications than with encouraging creativity and inspiring more experiments. The biggest problem with the passive house criteria today, she said, is that it doesn't account for different locations or house sizes. (Larger houses should really use less energy per square foot, not the same or more.) Fortunately, Ludwig reports that the Passive House Institute in Germany had received a grant to develop specifications for five climate zones, which will probably cover the various zones found here in the U.S. New specifications may also include the Passive House standards recommendations to build smaller homes. This was an exciting conference both because of the talented and experienced presenters and because of the committed and growing audience. Everyone here was focused on implementing solutions -- not just on measuring the problem. It was a far cry from conferences where presenters do nothing more than talk about billion dollar government and corporate investments in fanciful solutions. The passive house movement is composed of people who are doers, and they should be commended for their work.

Plan C Bailout Strategy -- Dealing with Cars

December 2, 2008 by Pat Murphy Executive Director, Community Solutions As we move toward government socialism for major corporations and industries, new opportunities arise, as these corporations seem to be at a loss for any innovative ideas. This is not surprising since they have screwed up so badly in recent years and the same people are still in charge. For some time, corporations have held immense power to set the priorities for nations with politicians supporting their efforts since corporations provide campaign financing. Now the shoe is on the other foot. Car and finance CEOs are coming to Washington, hat in hand, begging for bailouts. The elected representatives of the people suddenly have the right to govern -- for a while. And this gives them a chance to generate some new perspectives and innovative solutions. One can see this in the so-called bailout for the American car companies. Detroit is asking for tens of billions of dollars to make the transition to more fuel-efficient cars, along the lines of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 passed in December of that year. The new CAFÉ standards require that automakers increase fleet wide gas mileage to 35 mpg by 2020, including “light trucks” (SUVs). This is well below current existing standards in the rest of the world. With these companies implying they may not be around in six months, it seems silly to be talking about providing government money for such relatively minor goals 12 years from now. It takes time to develop engineering teams to make good quality small cars. If Honda and Toyota would stop development for five years, then maybe Detroit would be able to catch up. U.S. companies will make a few bad models and learn from them, the way most things are done. But what is the point? In terms of fuel-efficient vehicles, the rest of the world is far ahead of the US and the thought that we can easily catch up is arguable -- we haven't so far. This is true for regular cars, diesel vehicles, hybrid cars and even the long delayed fuel cell car. General Motors is advertising its Volt electric car while acknowledging that there are no batteries available yet to make it feasible. Batteries for cars are still the province of the Japanese, particularly Panasonic, which will provide the batteries for a PHEV that Toyota has announced will ship in 2010. It's hard to visualize GM begging the government for money to build a technology that can beat Toyota. (Recall that GM made a decision in the past to forego EV and hybrid cars for the doomed fuel cell car.) Toyota is also adding more energy efficient vehicles beyond its highly successful Prius, including a natural gas Camry hybrid. It is also resurrecting four RAV4-EV models to be used in Portland Oregon. In addition to the PHEV, Toyota will also market an all-electric commuter car in the early 2010s. http://earth2tech.com/2008/09/25/toyota-to-debut-natural-gas-car-launch-rav4-ev-project/ Detroit senior executives do not inspire much confidence as innovative leaders. Rick Wagoner, CEO of General Motors, in an interview with Motor Trend magazine in 2006, said his most regretted decision was axing the EV1 electric-car program and not putting the right resources into hybrids. Ford's CEO Alan Mulally was a Boeing executive for 40 years before switching to cars just a little over two years ago. During his tenure Ford's stock price has declined 75%. Robert Nardelli, after a long career at GE and a 6 year stint at Home Depot, took over the presidency of Cerberus (who bought Chrysler in August 2007). His experience in retail at Home Depot may or may not have prepared him to be head of an automobile company. It seems strange that the American automobile industry has been unable to develop sufficient leadership depth to deal with the challenges. The nation needs fuel-efficient cars but we don't need engineering departments and managers who are not able to build them. It just may not be possible psychologically for American car companies to make the shift away from the SUV. One solution is to buy the designs or manufacturing rights from Honda and Toyota and begin manufacturing high quality Japanese cars in volume in this country with American workers. As a happy owner of one of the first hybrid cars made in this county, the Honda Insight (with a Prius as a second car), it’s clear to me that very reliable high-mileage designs have been available for about a decade. This would keep the vast majority of the American manufacturers’ work force employed along with dealers and other service organizations. U.S. engineers can then take some time to study these cars, make a few errors -- and then develop the next generation of vehicles. Simply put, let's invest a few billion dollars into manufacturing already well-designed cars here. Japan will probably be delighted to provide the designs for a fee -- especially since their horded dollars will be worthless if America as a nation goes out of business. We are in an emergency situation now and car companies should be required to operate as if this is the case. One way to hunker down is to stop building new models every year. A lesson we might adopt from the airplane industry is that there is no more need for model years. When a new airplane design becomes available every five years or so, the aerospace companies then build it. Even today, Detroit does not design and build a new engine or new transmission each year for every model. Most of a new "model" consists of cosmetic body changes -- unnecessary except for styling. If we replace 20-mpg SUVs with 45-mpg Toyota Priuses and Honda Insights we will use far less material and labor. We will therefore need fewer production plants. Twice the number of cars would come out of the factories using half the workers and selling at half the price of the big behemoths we would stop making. What would we do then with the excess capacity of workers and production plants? I suggest they should begin building buses. (GM used to build buses but sold that business a long time ago). Better mileage cars are not a complete answer to our long-range energy problem in spite of the hope for PHEVs (a.k.a. the coal car). Mass transit is needed and that can be provided most rapidly by buses. Currently U.S. cars and light trucks (SUVs) use 60% of transportation fuel -- buses use less than 1% (.7%). Medium and heavy trucks use 18.7% of the fuel. There are 222 million cars and light trucks (SUVs) and only 83,000 buses in the U.S. (Transportation Energy Data Book 2008. Table 2-6 and Table 2.12.). One Greyhound bus takes an average of 34 cars off the road, and achieves 184 passenger miles per gallon of fuel. (http://www.greyhound.com/home/en/About/FactsAndFigures.aspx) How quickly could we do this? GM began building the CCKW, the first version of the so called "deuce and a half" military truck in 1941. The company produced 43,000 CCKWs in 1941, and ramped up to 111,000 in 1942 and 131,000 in 1943. Could all the extra capacity plants in the U.S. deliver 100,000 buses per year after ramping up? Does this mean we could take 3.4 million SUVs off the road each year? Now that's progress! We can also lower the speed limit immediately. On October 28, 1942, a War Speed Limit of 35 mph was set. In the first energy crisis of the 1970s the nation adopted a 55 mph speed limit which had the added benefits of significantly reducing deaths from automobile accidents. The fact that we have not already slowed down in response to the current crisis is a reflection of our "fast is best" cultural outlook since that time. We refuse to give up speed -- even though doing so would benefit our children enormously. But we will learn. These approaches may all seem rather prosaic. Energy-aware commentators periodically call for something more dramatic -- like a new Manhattan Project to save the nation. But isn't it more than a bit ironic to hear a call for us to repeat something that represents the worst in human beings -- the development of atomic weapons (which we might recall are still set to be fired when the computers decide conditions are right). We might also recall that WWII was essentially over when the bombs were dropped to show their scientific feasibility and I guess to punish the Japanese. The war was really won with CCKW trucks, airplanes, victory gardens and other social mechanisms that required effort and sacrifice from a willing citizenry. Throwing a few billion dollars to the National Labs and asking them to repeat the military innovations of the 1940s would deprive the mass of today's citizens of the chance to contribute their own efforts and show their willingness to bear some responsibility for our common future. Some Peak Oil proponents such as Matt Simmons and James Kunstler have called for a rebuilding of the national railroad network. This would take decades -- if it is even possible. I am sure they will think of buses as unimaginative. Light rail and bullet trains have all the excitement of high technology. Thoughts of racing between Paris and London on the Eurostar evoke the thrills of speed and cultural exploration. But an extensive investment in buses would not require that we build any new parallel transport rail-based network (presumably running alongside our existing roads). The magnitude of the effort to re-build a national rail system has not yet even been described. People seem to think there are some rusty tracks just waiting to be dusted off, which is not the case. Table 1: Railroad Line Miles and Track Miles Year Line miles Track miles 1929 229,530 381,417 1947 214,486 355,227 1960 207,334 340,779 1970 196,479 319,092 1980 164,822 270,074 1990 119,758 200,074 2000 99,250 168,535 Source: "Railroad Facts." Washington, DC: Association of American Railroads, 2004. The number of railroad line miles and track miles has been decreasing steadily and dramatically since the 1930s, as shown in Table 1, while car traffic has increased enormously. By 1920, car vehicles traveled approximately 45 billion miles on roads annually. Vehicle miles of travel increased more than 66-fold during the intervening 85 years to approximately three trillion vehicle miles in 2004. Road mileage also grew during those 85 years to 3.99 million miles in 2004. If mileage driven has expanded 66 times since 1920 and there are about four million miles of roads, how would we size a rail effort? If we had continued to build railroads from 1929 on, rather than moving to roads, how many miles would we have built? Would it have grown by a factor of 10 to 20 million miles? Since we increased miles traveled by 66 times, maybe a factor of 10 is too low. But in any case, laying a new network of tracks on top of the now-existing road system will result in a huge number of crossings. At present there are about 2.4 crossings per railroad line mile. Will we need 20 million new crossings? How many of them will be hugely expensive viaduct projects (bridges over rail tracks)? There seems to be a horrible fear in the American psyche of any change that can be experienced as "going backwards," a fear of what it will mean to reject the "progress" we have made by developing Hummers, jet airplanes, nitrogen fertilizers, McMansions, credit cards, credit swaps and derivatives. The thought of going back down the ladder of so-called progress from cars to buses to bikes to walking fills us with despair. So we cling to faith in innovations -- such as light rail, pluggable hybrids and government bailouts -- that are already best understood as fading dreams, misguided steps toward an increasingly barren future. More optimistic people, people who never really thought that all this stuff was the core of life, have a different view. They see the coming change as an opportunity for creativity. Why not just bail out Detroit with a government bus program? Maybe growing food in the backyard with neighbors could be a source of joy. Wearing sweaters doesn't seem all that great a sacrifice. Buses might be a way to meet interesting people. Could dealing with climate change, Peak Oil and bad debts actually be fun? Curitiba, Brazil has implemented a Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) system. The buses run frequently and reliably, and the stations are convenient, well-designed, comfortable and attractive. Curitiba has one of the most heavily used, yet low-cost, transit systems in the world. The above ground system offers many of the features of a subway system. Vehicle movements are unimpeded by traffic signals and congestion. Fare collection is done prior to boarding. Quick passenger loading and unloading is featured and the systems are above ground and visible. It would be easy to implement such a system in an American city that has had some bus transit experience and this kind of system can eliminate a lot of the problems with American road mass transit. It’s interesting to see the rest of the world dealing with the energy/CO2 problems of today using existing systems. Maybe we should try it!

The Market Has Spoken -- Go Plan C!

November 25, 2008 By Pat Murphy Executive Director, Community Solutions Our book Plan C -- Community Survival Strategies for Peak Oil and Climate Change hit the book stores in July of 2008. In that month the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the barometer of what is most meaningful in modern U.S. culture, was around 11,000, down about 3,000 points from its high of slightly above 14,000 in October, 2007. Since July of 2008 the DJIA has dropped another 3,000 points to around 8,000. Comparisons with the pattern of the DJIA in the late 1920s abound. Arguments suggesting we cannot be in a depression for various reasons are constantly being proposed -- and countered by new negative events. We are told that in the Great Depression government failed to provide bailout loans, something which world governments are now doing with abandonment. But these are no more effective in stopping the decline than the opposite actions of governments of the 1920s. At the core of Plan C is the action of curtailment -- a word I selected to make a distinction from mere conservation. The definition of curtailment includes both the act of curtailing, which implies voluntary actions, as well as the state of being curtailed, which can be construed to be involuntary. To curtail means to cut back, to shorten, to abbreviate, to retrench, to reduce. These words now need little detailed definition because people are experiencing them daily (albeit some more than others). Some are having their work hours shortened. Many are retrenching in every way possible. In our office we are cutting back on our use of natural gas for heating, wearing heavier clothing, and sometimes putting on gloves with the fingers cut off to keep our hands warm while typing. Home thermostat levels are being lowered, and extra blankets laid out in the living room to be used when the sun goes down. Trips to speak at conferences are now being reconsidered and driving has been reduced. Curtailment is upon us and it is uncomfortable to everyone and painful to many -- particularly those that are being laid off. We may have been physically more comfortable a year ago. But at that time a deep fear was growing in our souls that the human race might not make it. James Hansen recently called for us all to cut back our CO2 emissions to 350 parts per million (ppm), down from the current 387 ppm – and way down from the official estimates that we could (probably!) survive at 450 ppm. The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its November 2008 report expressed the seriousness of the situation in newly bleak terms, noting that "Preventing catastrophic and irreversible damage to the global climate ultimately requires a major decarbonization of the world energy sources." There are many other sobering statements in this report, including projections of existing oil fields depletion rates in the range of 4-6 percent annually. In support of this, recent reports from intelligence and defense agencies darkly acknowledge the high probability of future resource wars. In terms of CO2 generation we have a significant new source of hope. Curtailment is happening! And at a rate that may meet the reductions recommended by the climate scientists, namely about four percent per year. That's not a lot--at least for the first year. But with overall vehicle miles being reduced this year, and our domestic car companies heading for bankruptcy because they have no really good fuel efficient vehicles, we are seeing a turnaround in driving habits. With layoffs and shorter working hours we can guess that many thermostats are being set back by at least four percent as well. Utility companies report drops in electricity consumption at rates that are more than four percent annually. Maybe some people are even beginning to cut back their food intake--a positive step since we consume 30 to 40 percent more calories than is healthy, and most of us are overweight. Did all of America read Plan C in the last few months? Book sales numbers suggest not. And we have had no invitation from Oprah to appear on her TV show. So did Americans somehow intuit for themselves the curtailment recommendations of Plan C? Or did the finance gods simply decide to punish us for buying derivatives and credit swaps--violating some obscure commandment dealing with fiscal responsibility? Has something happened in the culture that woke up old ancient survival memories buried in our DNA? Are we experiencing a disquieting common dream in which the muses whisper "Hard times are coming?" I have my view--which is simply that Americans are beginning to wake up to evidence and their own experience. They are starting to see that greed is not good. They are beginning to question the cultural story that material consumption is our reason to live and what makes us great (meaning superior). They are losing confidence in the American view of the good life. They are starting to recall spiritual roots that warn against the pursuit of Mammon (the ancient Christian false god of riches and avarice). They are remembering Matthew 19:24--"And again I say to you, it is easier for a camel to pass through the eye of a needle, than for a rich man to enter into the kingdom of God" and Matthew 6:26--"Look at the birds of the air; they neither sow nor reap nor gather into barns, and yet your heavenly Father feeds them. Are you not of more value than they?" What is the stock market collapse essentially? I see it as a loss of confidence in the American system. Americans are now realizing that oil companies like Exxon have been funding anti-climate change lobbyists for decades. They are seeing that American car companies continued to make gas guzzlers in the US while making efficient cars abroad. And they have experienced a most awful shock upon discovering that the venal and manipulative management that prevailed in those kinds of industries was also in control of the finance industry, which meant that their life savings have been subjected to foolish risks. Americans are now beginning to understand that supposedly staid Wall Street bankers in fact more closely resembled Las Vegas casinos. The big-money players knew that the house would take its percentage and support them in casting the dice again and again. Citizens of Las Vegas know that there may be criminal elements behind the casinos; they assume their interests are being watched over by law officials subject to manageable levels of graft and bribery. But citizens of America did not have that protection. To have discovered that the quasi- criminal elements behind the banks had as little regard for honest citizens as do Mafia dons, and that government officials and Congresspersons were part of the financial manipulation, has been a blow. Oil companies and car companies were only too easy to hate. But banks and financial institutions were supposedly to be pillars of trustworthiness. And now we are observing those very same officials who invented the financial instruments which defrauded us (Henry Paulson, for example) demanding that Congress pass bank bailouts of a magnitude beyond belief. We have watched CEOs take excessive pay for years, backed up with golden parachutes. Now we've learned from David Korten (in his essay in the winter issue of Yes magazine) that in 2007, the 50 highest-paid private investment fund managers averaged $588 million each in compensation, 19,000 times as much as the average worker's pay. Let's consider some basic questions, questions that as citizens we should be prepared to answer. Why, for example, do stock markets seem to go up and down constantly? Certainly fundamental business conditions don't change that rapidly. Review the stock markets of 40 years ago and you will find their daily swings were much less than today's. This has a lot to do with confidence and the view of the market's possibilities. One barometer that measures the confidence is the Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of stocks. Over a long period of time, this ratio increases and decreases depending a lot on the mood of the country. Figure 1 illustrates this ratio, and the "irrational exuberance" that has existed in the first decade of the 21st century is apparent in it. When people buy into the story that they can "get something for nothing," the P/E ratio rises. And when that bubble pops, P/E ratios decline regardless of the popular delusion (pushed until recently by securities sales people) that sophisticated financial schemes have taken the risk out of the market. http://www.generationaldynamics.com/ww2010/g070818c.gif But the "investment party" (for which a more accurate term might be the "speculation binge") is now over -- whether it be in internet stocks, rapidly increasing housing prices, gold, or oil stocks. A lot of paper profits for companies, for stock holders, and for home owners have disappeared. Friends with 401 K programs from respectable corporations and educational institutions tell me they now plan to add years to their work life because their retirement funds (based on the stock market) have lost so much value. No one I know believes that things will return to the way they were. But sadness at this loss of the "good life" is tempered a bit because we know that if things do return to the way they were, oil consumption and CO2 generation will once more threaten the lives of all beings on the planet. It's easy to blame the CEOs and board members of our institutions, for as leaders they have indeed failed the people. But we were all complicit. Automobile unions supported the building of SUVs since it increased their wages and retirement benefits. The huge population of workers who entered financial services was smart enough to recognize a financial bubble. But like most people, they hoped to get their stake and get out before collapse occurred. We continued to elect politicians who promoted growth prosperity as the end all and be all. We were not forced to take out home equity loans and remodel our kitchens and take vacations with money borrowed from an uncertain future. To quote the famous Pogo Possum, a character in a political satire comic strip by Walt Kelly popular during the first energy crisis, "We have met the enemy and he is us." We selected a path that our grandparents knew would lead to perdition. So we are now "in the state of being curtailed" and we must accept that and begin "the actions of curtailing." Books and tip sheets abound to tell us how to live more frugally. Most of us now understand better that energy is at the heart of our challenges and that we must move beyond simple and easy efforts like recycling paper and plastic to big steps in reducing our personal energy consumption. Chevron, a major oil company, is running ads in which individual Americans announce "I will leave the car at home more," "I will carpool to work," "I will use less energy," "I will replace three light bulbs with CFLs", and "I will finally get a programmable thermostat." When oil companies run curtailment advertising campaigns, can the people be far behind? What can we expect from the new Obama government? This is hard to predict but we do know that our chances are hugely better with the end of the George W. Bush era. Bush's administration will continue to practice damage control for the economy, bailing out banks and maybe car companies, but without a coherent overall plan or convincing explanations of what they are doing. For now, the bailout is being extended to whoever has political clout. Some corporations are even buying small banks so they can list themselves as financial institutions in hopes of staking a position at the cash trough. But even proponents are already questioning the Troubled Assets Act. Preliminary loans of hundreds of billions to the financial institutions have not resulted in a resurgence of loans. Even if the banks regain a level of confidence that will allow interbank lending, will consumers jump again at the opportunity to speculate in consumer and housing goods? This is highly unlikely. The early years of the Great Depression were a time of experimentation, and this period will likely be no different. We can expect little reassurance from the government for at least some months. And any effort they make will be risky. A core strategy of simply printing more electronic dollars to send either to banks or underwater mortgage holders or car companies merely patches a system that has been torpedoed and is rapidly taking on water. The necessary steps for any and all of us are to understand and deal with the reality of what is happening. Hard times are coming. We are beginning a grieving process for a way of life that is passing. Many are now still at the first stage -- denial. Watching the Dow Jones Industrial Average and (for the better off) checking our 401 K programs will make believers of us all. The second stage -- anger -- is probably predominant now, with the targets being banks, appraisers and government home-lending agencies. The third phase -- bargaining -- is probably best illustrated by the huge number of bailout scenarios. "Give us a few paltry billions and we will create a corporate miracle!" The fourth stage -- depression -- is a loaded term, since it can describe either a difficult emotional state or the long-term pain of an extended economic disaster. Hardly anyone who is paying attention is fully free from emotional depression as they see an economic depression coming. Unfortunately either kind of depression can last for many years. The fifth and final state is acceptance -- facing our losses and moving on, focusing our efforts more positively again, and setting appropriate new goals. Many people working on Peak Oil and climate change, local organic farming, and home weatherization are in this stage. They are as yet small in numbers but strong in effect. They form the beginning of a larger grassroots movement which will be vital to a successful transition. We cannot afford to wait for a miracle from Washington. One of the most important reasons that Cuba survived their economic hell (caused by the cutoff of oil exports from Russia) was that the government informed the people that it did not know what to do. Instead, the government enlisted the people in solving the problem. And in many cases the government itself learned from innovative local efforts and helped most by disseminating those efforts around the island. Could things get so bad here that we might even listen to ideas from a socialist nation? Our very recent efforts of socialization of corporations and banks may make us more open to this possibility. Curtailment has arrived -- it did not wait for an invitation. Circumstances and our own greed for goods have brought it to us. Five years of talking about peak oil and climate change combined with the huge decline of housing and stock values over the last two years (possibly precipitated by crude oil prices, as some economists claim) have brought not only America but all nations to an understanding that massive change is in the offing. The continuing failure of techno-fixes to provide any really substantial help in these years has not been overlooked by the public. As a people, we will continue to drill (Plan A) and to build windmills and solar panels (Plan B). But in our hearts we know this will not be enough. The crises have been coming too fast and the scientists have been too Pollyannaish about new technology to have kept our trust. Plan C has won by default. Unpopular and painful though it may be, it is the only game in town for long term adaptation. The current system is rotten; its financial benefits have accrued to the few who are rich, and its huge negative externalities to the multitudes of the middle class and poor. Justice calls for a change. In the meantime the market, which sums up the views of hundreds of millions of people, has spoken. It has told us (or maybe we are telling ourselves), "The party is over." Today's market reflects a reality that people are beginning to experience and understand. People are "hunkering down." They no longer trust their financial leaders. The task is damage control, not expansion. Our job is no longer to determine rationales and schemes to avoid the difficulties but rather to develop strategies and tactics for managing them. This is what the changing market now demands.

Post-Oil Cities

Sesion abierta de trabajo para diseñar el JUEGO de POST-OIL CITIES

Participa en la sesión abierta de trabajo para diseñar el JUEGO de POST-OIL CITIES! POCJoc es un juego de estrategia para concienciarnos de manera lúdica de los retos a los que se enfrentan nuestras ciudades y pueblos ante un cambio de paradigma energético. Trabajaremos en el diseño de un Juego de Mesa y de un Juego en Red. El viernes 22 de enero d'11 a 20h. estaremos trabajando en el estudio de Straddle3 en la /c Riereta, 32 1er 3era de Barcelona. Estáis todos invitados a participar y a compartir esta jornada de trabajo! EL PROGRAMA 11-14h. Dinámicas de juego: Jugaremos y analizaremos otros juegos como el Catan, el Carcassonne o el Modularq (el juego de construcción sostenible ideado por Straddle3) 14-16h. Comida 16-20h. Diseño del POCJoc: Trabajaremos en el al ideació y el diseño del juego: dinámica de juego, objetivos, reglas, diseño… Os esperamos a todos! Se ruega confirmar asistencia enviando un correo a coordinacio (arroba) hibrids.net

Taula Rodona POST-OIL CITIES_Girona

WORKSHOP POC ON-LINE

Objetivo del taller El objetivo de este taller es analizar y proponer intervenciones para independizar del petróleo tu ciudad ante los retos del Peak Oil y del Cambio Climático. Presentación Casi la totalidad de las actividades de nuestra sociedad contemporánea dependen directa o indirectamente del petróleo; una sustancia que se usa no tan sólo para generar energía - que utilizamos mayoritariamente en el transporte-, sino que también se utiliza para la producción de alimentos (fertilizantes, pesticidas…) ropa, tintes, plásticos, barnices, jabones, cremas… El petróleo ha modelado en menos de un siglo la sociedad y las ciudades tal y como las conocemos hoy en día, con todos sus adelantos y crecimiento, pero a la vez con todas sus carencias y sobre todo con las consecuencias derivadas: sobre-explotación del planeta, contaminación, cambio climático… Depender tanto de una sola materia provoca una enorme vulnerabilidad y más si esta materia es no-renovable, o sea hay una cantidad finita que en algún momento se acabará -estancándose la producción primero y después cayendo, lo que se conoce como Peak Oil (Pico del petróleo). Nuestras ciudades actuales han crecido se han diseñado y se organizan a partir de patrones de funcionamiento basados en el uso y la disponibilidad del petróleo barato pero sabemos que esto debe cambiar en los próximos años. Porqué no empezar hoy a pensar y planificar nuestras ciudades más allá del petróleo? Modalidad Curso on-line. Programa del taller El curso cuenta con 4 módulos: Módulo I - INTRODUCCIÓN AL TEMA Y ANÁLISIS DEL CONTEXTO ACTUAL Módulo II - ESCENARIOS DE FUTURO Módulo III - PROPUESTAS DE ACTUACIÓN Módulo IV - REPRESENTACIÓN GRÁFICA Y PRESENTACIÓN DE LAS PROPUESTAS FINALES Autores del curso Daniel Gomez - ASPO - www.aspo-spain.org Lluís Sabadell Artiga - www.postoilcities.org Carlos Sant’Ana - S’A Arquitectos - www.sa-arquitectos.com Ecosistema Urbano - www.ecosistemaurbano.com David Juárez - Straddle3 - www.straddle3.net Laura Cantarella - www.lauracantarella.it Bea Ramo - Star Strategies + Architecture - www.s-t-a-r.nl Fechas y duración Modalidad 1 - Del 9 al 23 de diciembre de 2009 Horas lectivas: 34 horas Duración: 14 días Modalidad 2 (Intensivo libre) - A escoger entre el 9 y el 23 de diciembre de 2009 Horas lectivas: 34 horas Duración: Mínimo 7 días Fechas: a escoger entre el 9 y el 23 de diciembre (la fecha de inicio máxima será el 17 de diciembre y la fecha de finalización máxima será el 23 de diciembre) Esto quiere decir que las unidades didácticas serán las mismas para ambos cursos pero los alumnos de la modalidad 2 podrán empezar el curso en cualquier momento (como muy tarde el 17 de diciembre) y finalizarlo en cualquier momento (siempre antes del 23 de diciembre). Trabajo final El trabajo final consistirá en un proyecto concreto que ayude a independizar tu ciudad del petróleo que puede incluir diversas escalas de actuación: objeto, arquitectura, urbanismo, individual, colectiva social… A quién va dirigido Arquitectos, urbanistas, diseñadores, ingenieros, artistas, biólogos y a cualquier persona interesada a investigar como independizar las ciudades del petróleo. Metodología de trabajo Los alumnos gozarán de un seguimiento personalizado por parte de un tutor. Habrá un tutor por cada 20 alumnos además de contar con los comentarios de los tutores adjuntos (Daniel Gomez, Carlos Sant’Ana, Ecosistema Urbano, David Juárez, Laura Cantarella y Bea Ramo). Cada alumno individualmente o en grupos de dos personas realizarán un proyecto propio. Idiomas Las unidades didácticas están editadas en castellano y catalán y las tutorías se podrán realizar independientemente en castellano, catalán o inglés. Necesidades técnicas Disponer de un ordenador con conexión de alta velocidad. Preferiblemente: altavoces o auriculares y micrófono. Cuenta en Skype (para realizar los chats y las conversaciones VOIP - Gratuitas entre usuarios Skype) Inscripciones Modalidad 1 - Antes del 9 de diciembre de 2009 Modalidad 2 (Intensiva Libre)- Antes del 17 de diciembre de 2009 Plazas limitadas. Las plazas se otorgarán por estricto orden de inscripción. Para inscribirse hay que enviar un correo electrónico con el asunto “inscripción worshop POC on-line” a coordinacio@hibrids.net con los siguientes datos: -Nombre y apellidos -Fecha de nacimiento -Estudios/Formación -Dirección -País -Idioma de preferencia para realizar el curso (Castellano, Catalán, Inglés) -Email -Cuenta skype (si dispones de ella) -Breve escrito (max. 10 líneas) sobre porqué te interesa inscribirte en este taller y cuales son tus intereses sobre este tema. -¿Cómo nos has conocido? -Si NO deseas que te incluyamos en nuestra newsletter especifícalo. -Si solicitas descuento especifica cual y adjunta el documento acreditativo escaneado. -Si solicitas beca, adjunta el escrito explicando los motivos por los cuales crees ser merecedor de la beca y la cantidad que puedes pagar. Atención!: Las inscripciones no se harán efectivas hasta que se reciba la confirmación del pago de la matrícula. Precio El precio del taller es de 100€. Becas y descuentos 85€ parados y estudiantes. Se ofrecen becas de entre un 20% y un 90% sobre el precio del curso. Si deseas solicitar una beca, antes de realizar el pago deberás enviarnos un escrito explicando los motivos por los cuales crees ser merecedor de la beca y la cantidad que puedes pagar y te confirmaremos su aceptación por mail en breve. A cambio deberás comprometerte a publicar en el blog de Post-Oil Cities entre 5 y 10 artículos (dependiendo del importe del descuento) relacionados con la temática del proyecto. Forma de Pago Mediante transferencia bancaria al número de cuenta: 2030 0042 88 3300030706 (Caixa de Girona) MUY IMPORTANTE! Indicar en el concepto el Nombre del curso + nombre y apellidos. O bien mediante Paypal: Publicación Todos los trabajos se publicarán en la página de www.postoilcities.org y una selección de los mejores se presentará en la exposición itinerante Post-Oil CIties. Los proyectos publicados en la web www.postoilcities.org estarán bajo licencia Creative Commons (Atribución - Share Alike - No Comercial) si no se especifica lo contrario por parte de los participantes.

Workshop GIRONA_Escenaris de Futur

WORKSHOP POST-OIL CITIES: Girona_Escenaris de Futur L’objectiu d’aquest taller és analitzar i proposar intervencions per a la independització del petroli de la ciutat de Girona i la seva àrea d’influència davant dels reptes del Peak Oil i del Canvi Climàtic. Es desenvoluparan entre 4 i 8 escenaris de futur per Girona on seran processades i creuades informacions locals i globals. L’objectiu és trobar una llista de 100 accions positives que donin resposta a possibles situacions futures en el context de la ciutat de Girona i la seva àrea d’influència. A càrrec de Straddle3 straddle3.net Arquitectes, (Barcelona) Lluís Sabadell Artiga www.postoilcities.org Artista i comissari, Post-Oil Cities (Girona) Programa 14-16 de Desembre Documentació prèvia. Els participants hauran de llegir i visionar la documentació prèvia que se’ls facilitarà abans de l’inici del taller. 17 de Desembre 16 a 20h. Conferències obertes al públic. 18 i 19 de Desembre 9 a 14 i de 16 a 21h. Workshop A qui va dirigit Arquitectes, urbanistes, dissenyadors, enginyers, artistes, biòlegs i a qualsevol persona interessada en investigar com independitzar les nostres ciutats del petroli. Lloc Centre Cultural La Mercè Pujada de la Mercè, 12 - 17004 Girona Inscripcions Places limitades - Inscripcions gratuïtes fins el dilluns 14 de desembre Enviar un correu a direccio@hibrids.net amb l’assumpte “Inscripció Taller POC-Girona” amb les següents dades: Nom, Cognoms, Data de naixement, Estudis/Formació, Email i Telèfon de contacte. Més informació a www.postoilcities.org o bé truqueu al t. 661 79 27 50 Workshop POST-OIL CITIES: Girona View more documents from Hibrids.

POC EXHIBITION AT GIRONA

Inauguració de l’exposició a la Sala La Cova de la Demarcació de Girona del CoAC, el dilluns 23 de novembre a les 20h. Sala La Cova - Demarcació de Girona del CoAC Pia Almoina - Plaça catedral, 8 - 17004 Girona Telf: 972412896