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El petróleo de Texas cierra con retroceso semanal de 4,8 % en 91 ... - Expansión.com

swissinfo.chEl petróleo de Texas cierra con retroceso semanal de 4,8 % en 91 ...Expansión.comEl petróleo de Texas bajó hoy el 1,16 % y cerró en 91,48 dólares el barril, con lo que acumuló un fuerte descenso semanal del 4,8 %, arrastrado por la crisis política en Grecia y el temor a un posible impacto en la demanda de crudo.El petróleo de Texas bajó a 92,56 dólares, nuevo mínimo en seis mesesDiario VascoPetróleo continúa bajando en Nueva York, a 91,48 USD por barrilUnivisiónEl petróleo prosigue su caída por la crisis de la zona euroswissinfo.chlos 307 artículos informativos »

Repsol no encuentra petróleo en su primer pozo perforado en aguas ... - Expansión.com

Noticias24Repsol no encuentra petróleo en su primer pozo perforado en aguas ...Expansión.comCuba calcula que las reservas de petróleo de que dispone en su Zona Económica Exclusiva son de 20.000 millones de barriles de crudo mientras que otras sitúan la cifra entre 5.000 y 9.000 millones. Desde hace unos cinco años, la producción petrolera de ...Repsol dice no encontró petróleo en CubaTerra Colombialos 54 artículos informativos »

Precio del petróleo venezolano cerró en 104,66 dólares por barril - Correo del Orinoco

Correo del OrinocoPrecio del petróleo venezolano cerró en 104,66 dólares por barrilCorreo del OrinocoEl precio promedio del petróleo venezolano se ubicó en 104,66 dólares el barril al cierre de esta semana, lo que representa una reducción de 2,75 dólares (2,56%), en relación con el valor obtenido siete días atrás, cuando se cotizó en 107,41 dólares ...El barril venezolano vuelve a bajar y cierra la semana en 104,66 ...Lainformacion.comPetróleo venezolano cae y se ubica en $104,66 en la semanaEl Universal (Venezuela)Bajan precios del petróleo en principales mercadosPrensa Latinalos 44 artículos informativos »

Véspera de Nada

Xoán Doldán falará mañá 25 de abril en Moaña sobre «Decrecemento e Economías en transición: Respostas necesarias á crise ecolóxica e enerxética»

Xoán Doldán estará mañá ás 17:00 h no IES A Paralaia de Moaña para falar sobre Decrecemento e Transición económica e social. Consulta o cartel en PDF para máis información.

Para que os eucaliptos vivan, a Xunta e os empresarios do papel decretan a morte da nosa agricultura

Queren mexar por nós toneladas de veleno e imos dicir que chove?! Chegounos o día 6 a noticia de que as autoridades (electas ou de facto) que nos gobernan decretaron para este mes de abril de 2012 o comezo dunha fumigación masiva e ¿obrigatoria? das plantacións de eucaliptos de Galiza cun produto que é tóxico [...]

O futuro é rural

(Artigo de Xoán R. Doldán publicado no nº1 da revista O Peteiro, do Partido da Terra.) Máis da metade da poboación mundial vive en núcleos urbanos, un 20 por cento do total en cidades que superan os 750 mil habitantes. Na Galiza case o 60 por cento da poboación vive nas áreas urbanas das nosas [...]

The Oil Crash

Energía a escala galáctica

  Queridos lectores,Del excelente blog "Do the Math!" (en inglés), escrito por el profesor de astrofísica Tom Murphy, suelo destacar un post que considero crucial: "Galactic-scale energy". De una manera clara y contundente ese post muestra que la falacia economicista del crecimiento ilimitado es simplemente imposible por la inviabilidad material de hacer crecer indefinidamente la energía que consumimos (sé perfectamente qué alegarán nuestros queridos amigos del ramo, que se puede crecer desmaterializando la economía, cosa que no ha pasado en ningún lugar del planeta Tierra ni tiene visos de suceder nunca, pero de lo cual ya hablaremos en un post posterior). Sin llegar a esas discusiones tan sofisticadas, el post de Murphy deja bien claro que resolver el problema no significa buscar nuevas fuentes de energía, sino dejar de pretender crecer a toda cosa.Mi más sincero agradecimiento a Gerard, Ignacio y El Erial han traducido el post para Vds. en un tiempo récord. Agradecerle también a Marga Vidal por adaptar las figuras. Espero que lo disfruten.Salu2,AMTEnergía a escala galácticaDesde el inicio de la Revolución Industrial, hemos visto un impresionante y sostenido crecimiento en la escala del consumo energético por parte de la civilización humana. La gráfica abajo, elaborada con los datos de la EIA (Agencia de la Información sobre la Energía), muestra que la energía usada en los Estados Unidos desde 1650 (incluyendo madera, biomasa, combustibles fósiles, hidroeléctrica, nuclear, etc.) ha seguido una trayectoria de crecimiento notablemente constante, caracterizada por un crecimiento anual del 2,9% (ver gráfico). Es importante comprender la evolución en el futuro de esta trayectoria de crecimiento energético, ya que gobiernos y organizaciones de todas partes trabajan con la suposición de que esta tendencia de crecimiento sostenido continuará igual que ahora durante siglos- y una ojeada a la figura sugiere que es una suposición perfectamente razonable (algunos matices se discuten en esta actualización).Consumo energético total en los Estados Unidos desde 1650. La escala vertical es logarítmica, por lo que una curva exponencial resultado de una tasa de crecimiento constante aparece como una línea recta. La línea roja se corresponde con una tasa de crecimiento anual del 2,9%. Datos: EIA.El crecimiento se ha convertido en un pilar tan básico de nuestra existencia que damos por sentada su continuidad. El crecimiento aporta muchísimos beneficios, como coches, televisión, transporte aéreo, iGadgets... La calidad de vida mejora, la sanidad mejora, y a pesar de la proliferación de contraseñas a recordar, la vida tiende a ser más cómoda con el tiempo. El crecimiento trae consigo una promesa de futuro que proporciona razones para invertir en desarrollo, anticipando el rendimiento de la inversión. El crecimiento es el fundamento que justifica las tasas de interés, créditos y, por tanto, la actividad financiera.Debido a que el crecimiento ha estado presente durante "innumerables" generaciones -- es decir, ha sido experimentado por cualquier persona conocida por nosotros o nuestros abuelos- el crecimiento es el argumento central de nuestra propia narrativa sobre quiénes somos y qué hacemos. Por lo tanto nos sentimos incómodos al imaginar una trayectoria diferente. Este post aporta un impactante ejemplo de la imposibilidad de un crecimiento sostenido con las tasas actuales- incluso a una escala de tiempo familiar. Por simplificación de los cálculos, bajaremos la tasa de crecimiento energético del 2,9% al 2,3% anual; de esta forma vemos un incremento de factor diez cada 100 años, es decir, el consumo de energía total se multiplica por diez cada 100 años. Ponemos el reloj a cero en el presente, con un uso global de la energía de 12 terawatts (por lo que cada habitante de este planeta de media disfruta de una parte del pastel de 2.000 W) Comenzaremos con valoraciones cuasipragmáticas, para luego dejar volar por etapas nuestra imaginación - incluso entonces veremos que chocamos con nuevos límites antes de lo que esperaríamos a priori. De antemano voy a admitir que las premisas en que se basa este estudio son enormemente deficientes. Pero de hecho al final se trata justamente de eso.Una carrera hacia la GalaxiaSiempre me ha impresionado el hecho que a la Tierra llega tanta energía solar en una hora como la que consumimos en todo un año. ¡Con cuánta esperanza nos ilumina este hecho! Pero no nos dejemos llevar... todavía.Solamente el 70% de la luz solar que incide en la Tierra entra en su balance energético -- el 30% restante rebota de inmediato en la nubes, la atmósfera y la superficie sin ser absorbida. También, al ser criaturas terrestres, podríamos asumir que la instalación de paneles solares estará retringida al suelo continental,  que ocupa el 28% de todo el globo terrestre. Finalmente, sabemos que los paneles fotovoltaicos y las plantas termosolares  tienden a operar con una eficiencia de alrededor del 15%. Vamos a suponer incluso un 20% para nuestros cálculos. El resultado final es de 7.000 TW disponibles, alrededor de 600 veces nuestro consumo actual. Muchísimo margen, ¿no?¿Cuándo chocaríamos con este límite con un crecimiento del 2,3% anual? Recordad que nos expandimos con un factor de diez cada cien años, por lo que en 200 años consumiremos 100 veces el nivel actual, y llegaríamos a los 7 000 TW en 275 años. 275 años pueden parecer muchos para la escala de tiempo de un ser humano, pero no lo es tanto para una civilización. Y pensad en el mundo que acabamos de crear: ¡Todo metro cuadrado de superficie cubierto de paneles fotovoltaicos! ¿Y dónde hacemos crecer la comida?Ahora vamos a relajar un poco los límites. Seguramente en 275 años seremos suficientemente inteligentes para exceder la eficiencia del 20% de tan importante recurso. Vamos a reírnos en la cara de los límites de la termodinámica y usaremos una eficiencia del 100% (sí, ya ha empezado la parte fantasiosa de este viaje). Esto nos quintuplica el recurso, o 70 años más. ¿Pero quién necesita los océanos? Recubrámoslos todos con paneles solares con una eficiencia del 100%. 55 años más. En 400 años, ya chocamos con el límite solar de la superficie terrestre . Esto es muy significativo, ya que la biomasa, viento y generación hidroeléctrica se derivan de la radiación del sol, y los combustibles fósiles representan una batería en la Tierra cargada a lo largo de millones de años. Solamente la energía nuclear, geotérmica y mareomotriz no provienen de la radiación solar- y los dos últimos son despreciables para el análisis, conjuntamente representan unos pocos terawatts. Pero la principal limitación del anterior análisis es el área de la superficie terrestre... Deseo concedido. Si captamos el 30% extra que ha rebotado en la atmósfera ganamos solamente 16 años, por lo que el gran esfuerzo de rodear la atmósfera con paneles solares quizá no vale la pena. ¿Pero para qué limitarnos a la Tierra, si ya estamos flotando en el espacio?Seamos ambiciosos: rodeemos el sol con paneles solares, y que sean 100% eficientes. No importa que esta estructura, de unos 4mm de grosor, que rodea el sol a la distancia de la órbita terrestre, requiera una cantidad de materiales equivalente a la masa de la tierra, y materiales especiales además. Pues haciéndolo nos permitiría continuar con el crecimiento anual del 2,3% durante 1.350 años más a partir del presente.Llegados a este punto podemos darnos cuenta de que el Sol no es la única estrella de nuestra galaxia. En la Vía Láctea hay alrededor de 300.000 millones de estrellas. Muchísima energía simplemente vertida al espacio, disponible para su uso. Recordemos que cada factor de diez son cien años más que podemos seguir en la autopista del crecimiento. 300 000 millones son once factores de diez, por lo tanto tenemos 1100 años más. Por lo que en unos 2500 años estaríamos usando la energía producida en toda una gran galaxia. Conocemos con cierta precisión lo que hacían los humanos hace 2.500 años. Creo que puedo afirmar sin titubear lo que no estaremos haciendo en 2.500 años.Demanda de energía global con un crecimiento sostenido de 2,3% en un gráfico logarítmico. En 275 y 345 años usaríamos toda la radiación solar que llega a la superficie terrestre emergida con una eficiencia del 20% y 100%, respectivamente. Si cubrimos toda la superficie de la Tierra encontraríamos el tope en 400 años, con una eficiencia del 100%.En 1350 años usaríamos toda la energía producida por el Sol. En 2450 años, consumiríamos tanta energía como la producida por los 300 000 millones de estrellas que contiene la Vía Láctea. Las notas verticales, en verde, muestran una perspectiva histórica de la situación de estas referencias en el contexto de la civilización¿Porqué simplemente la solar?Algunos lectores pueden molestarse por un enfoque centrado en la energía solar/estelar. Si soñamos a lo grande, olvidémonos de las timoratas restricciones de la energía solar y adoptemos la fusión. La abundancia del deuterio en el agua común nos permitiría disponer aquí mismo en la Tierra de una fuente energética aparentemente inagotable. No entraremos en un detallado análisis de esta posibilidad por resultar innecesario. El crecimiento despiadado mostrado arriba implica que en 1400 años contados a partir de ahora, cualquier fuente de energía que consiguiésemos tener habría de eclipsar al Sol.Permítanme resaltar ese importante punto. Independientemente de la tecnología, una tasa de crecimiento energético sostenida del 2,3% nos exigiría dentro de 1400 años producir tanta energía como el Sol. Aviso: una planta de producción así estaría más bien caliente. La termodinámica impone que si generamos en la Tierra una cantidad de energía comparable a la del Sol, la superficie de nuestro planeta - siendo más pequeña que la del astro rey - ¡debería ponerse más caliente que la del Sol!Límites termodinámicosPodemos explorar con mayor precisión los límites termodinámicos del problema. La Tierra absorbe abundante energía del Sol - en exceso, dadas nuestras actuales actividades humanas -. La Tierra se libera de su energía radiándola al espacio, principalmente en forma de ondas infrarrojas. No hay otro camino para librarse del calor. De hecho, la absorción y emisión se hallan en un balance cuasi perfecto. Si no fuera así la Tierra se calentaría o enfriaría lentamente. De hecho, hemos disminuido la capacidad de escape de tales radiaciones, llevándonos al calentamiento global. Aún así, todavía estamos desviados menos del 1% respecto al equilibrio perfecto.Como la potencia radiada aumenta como la cuarta potencia de la temperatura si la expresamos en términos absolutos (grados Kelvin), podemos calcular la temperatura de equilibrio de la superficie de la Tierra dada una carga adicional de actividad social.Temperatura de la superficie terrestre dado un crecimiento energético sostenido del 2.3%, asumiendo que empleemos otra fuente distinta del Sol para proveer nuestras necesidades y que su uso se disipa sobre la superficie del planeta. Incluso una fuente energética de ensueño como la fusión desatará condiciones inviables en unos cientos de años en caso de seguir creciendo. Reparen en que la escala vertical es logarítmica.El resultado se muestra arriba. Como ya sabemos, si nos ceñimos a la superficie de la Tierra, en 400 años agotaríamos nuestro potencial solar. A fin de continuar nuestro crecimiento energético más allá de ese punto, deberíamos abandonar la renovables -derivadas prácticamente todas ellas del sol- por la fisión y/o fusión nuclear. Pero el análisis termodinámico nos dice que de todas maneras estamos fritos. ¡Detengan esta locura!El objeto de esta disertación es señalar lo absurdo que resulta asumir que podemos incrementar nuestro uso de la energía, incluso si lo hiciésemos más modestamente que durante los últimos 350 años. Este análisis será un blanco fácil para determinadas críticas, dada lo estrecho de miras de su premisa. Disfrutaría triturándolo yo mismo. Básicamente, el crecimiento continuado de la energía sería innecesario si la población se estabilizase. Al menos se mitigaría un 2,9% del crecimiento energético que hemos venido experimentando a medida que el mundo se ha ido saturando de población. Pero no soslayemos el asunto clave: El crecimiento continuado en el uso de la energía se torna imposible en períodos de tiempo que la mente humana puede abarcar. El análisis precedente brinda una hermosa forma de demostrar este argumento. Encuentro que se trata de un argumento que fuerza a la gente a darse cuenta de los límites genuinos del crecimiento infinito.Una vez que reconozcamos que el crecimiento físico debe cesar (o invertirse) algún día, podremos darnos cuenta de que todo el crecimiento económico debe igualmente acabar. Este último punto puede que sea difícil de digerir, dada nuestra habilidad para innovar, mejorar la eficiencia, etc. Pero dejaremos este asunto para otro post. AGRADECIMIENTOS: GRACIAS A KIM GRIEST POR SUS COMENTARIOS Y POR PLANTEAR LA IDEA ORIGINAL DE QUE EN 2500 AÑOS USAREMOS TODA LA VIA LÁCTEA, Y GRACIAS A BRIAN PIERINI POR SUS ÚTILES COMENTARIOS.Tom Murphy

Radiactividad y radiación

Imagen de Naturzientziak's Blog Queridos lectores, Al hilo de una discusión en Facebook sobre el los riesgos asociados al accidente de Fukushima, Luis Cosin se ha ofrecido a escribir un post técnico acerca de la radiactividad y la radiación. Les dejo en buenas manos, las de Luis. Salu2, AMT IntroducciónLa radiactividad ha adquirido gran protagonismo en los medios de comunicación a partir de los incidentes ocurridos en Fukushima. La radiación es, sin embargo, un fenómeno natural, aunque la tecnología esta creando nuevas fuentes de radiación más intensas y peligrosas que las naturales. En este ensayo, pretendo dar una visión general del fenómeno, la forma de medirlo y sus efectos sobre la salud:Radiactividad, radiación ionizante, radiactivo ... ¿de qué estamos hablando?Orígenes: ¿De dónde procede?¿Cómo interacciona con la materia y qué efectos tiene sobre la salud?Espero que sea del interés del lector.1. Radiactividad, radiación ionizante, radiactivo ... ¿de qué estamos hablando?1.1. DescubrimientoLa radiactividad es el fenómeno físico por el cual ciertos cuerpos emiten radiación ionizante, es decir, radiación que es capaz de "barrer", absorber o expulsar los electrones de átomos y moléculas a su alrededor. Señalización típica que indica la presencia de radiación ionizanteDado que los electrones son el "cemento" que mantiene unidas las moléculas, la radiación ionizante tiene la capacidad de desestabilizar y romper dichas moléculas.Hay que distinguirla de muchos otros muchos tipos de radiación: luz, microondas, radio...etc. que no tienen esta capacidad.La radiactividad fue descubierta casualmente por Henri Becquerel en 1896, observando que las placas fotográficas que permanecían cerca de piezas del mineral Pechblenda (que contiene Uranio) se velaban aunque no les diese la luz. Henri BecquerelFuentes:http://eltecnoblogdealmu.blogspot.com.es/2010/05/que-es-la-radiacion-electromagnetica.html Tipos de radiactividadMarie Curie y su esposo investigaron este fenómeno, estudiando diversos minerales, y descubrieron que otras sustancias, como el Torio (Th) y el Radio (Ra), tenían el mismo efecto, al que denominaron genéricamente "radio-actividad" (literalmente "actividad del Radio").Marie CurieEl Radio (Ra) es un emisor extremadamente fuerte de radiación y muchos pioneros padecieron enfermedades causadas por la exposición prolongada a la misma.RadioMidiendo la energía transportada por esta radiación y sometiéndola a campos eléctricos y magnéticosy observando su comportamiento (mediante varios experimentos diseñados por Rutherford) se llegó a la conclusión que la radiactividad tenía origen en transformaciones que ocurrían en los núcleos de los átomos y consistía esencialmente en tres fenómenos diferentes asociados a transiciones o cambios nucleares (a los que se sumaría un cuarto en los años 30 del siglo pasado).Los experimentos de Rutherford consistieron en someter la radiación a campos electromagnéticos y observar el desplazamiento que producían en las partículas:Ernest RutherfordLa composición de la radiación ionizante, con el conocimiento actual de la materia, consiste en:Partículas (radiación alfa): Es un flujo de partículas compuestas por dos neutrones y dos protones (núcleos de helio, He) a velocidades próximas a la de la luz. Son poco penetrantes, debido a su gran masa y carga eléctrica (son capturadas por las nubes de electrones que rodean a la materia), pero muy ionizantes, ya que el Helio es un gas noble extremadamente estable y su núcleo, una vez desprovisto de electrones, es extremadamente electrófilo.Este tipo de radiación es emitida por la descomposición de núcleos atómicos muy pesados (número atómico A > 84, correspondiente al Polonio, Po), que tienen muchos protones y están sometidos a una tensión electrostática muy fuerte. Liberando carga eléctrica del núcleo, se transforman en átomos más ligeros y estables.El núcleo de Helio es extremadamente estable y es uno de los "ladrillos" con los que se construyen los núcleos más pesados en el interior de las estrellas (en general, los átomos con número par de protones y neutrones, es decir, que se han formado por agregación de núcleos de Helio, son más estables y abundantes en la naturaleza que los que tienen un número impar). Desintegración beta: Es un flujo de electrones (beta negativas) o positrones (beta positivas) resultante de la desintegración de las partículas elementales (neutrones o protones) de núcleos más pequeños cuando éstos se encuentran en un estado excitado o bien existe un exceso de tensión electrostática. Existen tres tipos de radiación beta: Beta-, que consiste en la emisión espontánea de electrones por parte de los núcleos (un neutrón se transforma en un protón). Beta+, en la que un protón del núcleo se desintegra y da lugar a un neutrón, a un positrón y un neutrino. Y la captura electrónica que se da en núcleos con exceso de protones, en la cual el núcleo captura un electrón de la corteza electrónica, que se unirá a un protón del núcleo para dar un neutrón. Radiación gamma: Consistente en radiación electromagnética (fotones de luz) de muy alta energía (con longitudes de onda inferiores a 10-11 m). Por ser ondas electromagnéticas de gran energía, tienen gran capacidad de penetración en la materia. Ocurre cuando el núcleo se desprende de una cantidad de energíapara pasar a otro estado energético más bajo o menos excitado. La cantidad de energía emitida por un fotón gamma es hν(donde "h" es la constante de Planck y "ν" es la frecuencia de la radiación emitida).La radiación gamma suele acompañar a las emisiones alfa y betay responde a las transiciones energéticas que no implican modificaciones en la carga del núcleo. Neutrones: La radiación de neutrones (o "haz de neutrones") y el neutrón en sí, fueron descubiertos en la década de 1930 a través de experimentos llevados a cabo por James Chadwick, Walter Bothe y Herbert Becker, y otros. La radiación de neutrones se consiguió por primera vez bombardeando Berilio (Be) con partículas alfa y observando que se producía una radiación que era absorbida por los núcleos de otros materiales, convirtiéndolos en radiactivos. La mayoría de los materiales radiactivos producidos durante la explosión de una bomba nuclear es creada de esta manera.Fuentes: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Part%C3%ADcula_alfahttp://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Part%C3%ADcula_betahttp://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rayos_gammahttp://thales.cica.es/rd/Recursos/rd99/ed99-0226-01/capitulo5a.htmlhttp://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiactividad1.3. Transiciones nucleares productoras de radiaciónEl tipo de transición nuclear al que es propenso un núcleo depende del número de protones, Z, (también llamado número atómico) y el número total de partículas, A,(electrones y neutrones, llamado número másico). Recordar que dos átomos que tengan el mismo número de protones Z, pero diferente número de partículas A, tienen las mismas propiedades químicas y por ello ocupan la misma posición en la tabla periódica (por eso se denominan isótopos (de "iso+topos" mismo lugar). Los isótopos que emiten radiación se denominan radioisótopos.Esto se intenta expresar gráficamente en lo que se conoce como tabla de núclidos:Tabla de núclidos 1.4. Periodo de semidesintegraciónLa desintegración de un núcleo o su transición entre dos niveles de energía es un fenómeno estocástico, que se da aleatoriamente con una cierta probabilidad.A mayor probabilidad, mayor número de desintegracionespor unidad de tiempo (la unidad del sistema internacional para esto es el Becquerel, Bq, correspondiente a una descomposición por segundo).El número de desintegraciones sigue una ley exponencial inversa. Es decir, el número de desintegraciones por segundo es proporcional a la cantidad de átomos presentes en cada momento. En términos macroscópicos, se habla de tiempo medio de semidesintegración, T1/2, que es el tiempo que tardará en desintegrarse la mitad de los átomos de una muestra. Los átomos estables son aquellos con largos periodos de semidesintegración (superiores a varios miles de millones de años).Por ejemplo, si un isótopo tiene un periodo de semidesintegración de 1 año:Al cabo de 1 año, quedará sólo un 50% de la cantidad inicial de dicho isótopo.Al cabo de 2 años, quedará sólo un 25% de la cantidad inicial de dicho isótopo.Al cabo de 10 años, quedará sólo un 0,1% de la cantidad inicial de dicho isótopo....etc.En el siguiente gráfico se puede apreciar el periodo se semidesintegración de los isótopos conocidos. Períodos de semidesintegración de los isótopos conocidosSon remarcables los "huecos" existentes para Z = 43 (Tecnecio, Tc) y Z entre 84 (Polonio, Po) y 89 (Actinio, Ac), donde no existen isótopos estables. Tampoco se conocen isótopos estables, con semividas superiores a unos pocos minutos, para Z mayor que 96 (Curio, Cm).Fuentes:http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Is%C3%B3topohttp://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiois%C3%B3topohttp://www.cienciaxxi.com/2009/09/la-gran-tabla-de-los-isotopos.htmlhttp://www.foronuclear.org/es/tags/desintegraci%C3%B3n-radiactivahttp://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Isotopes_and_half-life.PNG?uselang=eshttp://www.ptable.com/?lang=eshttp://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Periodo_de_semidesintegraci%C3%B3n2. Orígenes: ¿De dónde procede?Según hemos visto, la radiactividad es una radiación ionizante que procede de la desintegración o el cambio energéticodentro de núcleos atómicos inestables.Cada isótopo tiene un periodo de semidesintegración característico, que va desde picosegundos (10-12 segundos) hasta varios miles de millones de años.Además, la Tierra está "bañada" por la radiación de alta energía procedente del cosmos. Es lo que se conoce como "radiación cósmica".Y el ser humano ha generado fuentes de radiación artificial.Así, podemos clasificar las fuentes de radiación en cuatro grandes tipos:Radiación cósmicaRadioisótopos pesadosRadioisótopos ligeros o inducidosRadiación artificial2.1. Radiación cósmica Se conoce como radiación cósmica primaria a la que se origina en el espacio exterior por medio de procesos que liberan gran energía en un tiempo breve (energía residual del Big Bang, explosiones de supernova cercanas, erupciones solares...etc) y llega a nosotros.Está constituida principalmente por partículas cargadas (protones, electrones y partículas alfa) con energía muy elevada, viajando casi a la velocidad de la luz.Al pasar por nuestra atmósfera, originan toda una serie de fenómenos en cascada que tienen como consecuencia la producción de radiación gamma y otras partículas, lo que se conoce como radiación cósmica secundaria.Los pasajeros de un avión intercontinental que vuele a 10.000 m de altitud, por ejemplo, están expuestos a una dosis de radiación 50 veces más alta que la presente al nivel del mar.Fuentes: http://bibliotecadigital.ilce.edu.mx/sites/ciencia/volumen1/ciencia2/42/htm/sec_8.html 2.2. Radioisótopos pesados: las series del Uranio y el TorioOtra fuente de radiactividad natural son los isótopos radiactivos pesados (más pesados que el Hierro, Fe, de número atómico Z=26). Sabemos que se forman únicamente en eventos muy especiales que ocurren sólo de vez en cuando: las explosiones de supernova. El hecho que en nuestro planeta existan isótopos pesados indica que parte del material que lo forma proviene de una zona de la galaxia en la que se ha dado este fenómeno.La formación de nuestro planeta tuvo lugar aproximadamente hace 4.000 millones de años. Sólo algunos isótopos radiactivos tienen periodos de semidesintegración de esta magnitud. Esencialmente todos los isótopos radiactivos de los elementos pesadospresentes de forma natural en nuestro planeta son producto de la lenta descomposición del Uranio y el Torio, en lo que se denomina series de desintegración, y están presentes en los minerales de U y Th. UranioTorio Serie de desintegración del Uranio-238 (238U, vida media de 4.500 millones de años):Serie de desintegración del Torio-232 (232Th, vida media de 14.000 millones de años):Serie de desintegración del Uranio-235 (235U, vida media de 700 millones de años):Los radioisótopos pesados más abundantes en nuestro planeta son:Torio 232 >14.00 · 109 añosUranio 238 4,468 · 109 años Uranio 235 7,038 · 108 años Radio 226 1.602 años Cesio 137 30,07 años Bismuto 207 31,55 añosEstroncio 90 28,90 años Cobalto 60 5,271 años Fuentes: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uraniohttp://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toriohttp://bibliotecadigital.ilce.edu.mx/sites/ciencia/volumen1/ciencia2/42/htm/sec_8.html2.3. Radioisótopos ligeros o inducidosPor último, hay átomos ligeros radiactivos. Estos radiosótopos ligeros se producen en la Tierra por el efecto de la radiación cósmica sobre los elementos más abundantes en ella (aquellos anteriores al Hierro, Fe), por lo que se llaman radioisótopos inducidos.Entre ellos, uno de los más interesantes es el Carbono-14, (14C) que se forma en la alta atmósfera cuando la radiación cósmica interactúa con el Nitrógeno-14 atmosférico (el Nitrógeno forma el 70% de la atmósfera), primero por medio de la captura de un neutrón y después por medio de un decaimiento beta. A medida que el 14C se desintegra, transformándose en nitrógeno-14 (14N) se alcanza un estado de equilibrioentre las velocidades de producción y la de desintegración, lo que hace que la concentración de 14C en el CO2atmosférico sea constante.En cada gramo de materia viva hay 14C suficiente como para producir 16 desintegraciones por minuto. Al morir el organismo, se deja de asimilar 14C y éste va decayendo lentamente a una tasa conocida (más de 5.000 años de periodo de semidesintegración), lo que permite datar con bastante precisión la edad de un fósil.El ciclo del Carbono-14Los radioisótopos inducidos más abundantes son:Potasio-40 1,28 · 109 añosCalcio-41 1,03 · 105 años Carbono-14 5.760 añosOxígeno-15 122 segundos (se produce de forma continua)Fuentes: http://equipecarbono14.blogspot.com.es/2.4. Radioisótopos artificialesLa tecnología de los reactores nucleares ha permitido al ser humano fabricar isótopos que no están presentes de forma natural en nuestro planeta (si alguna vez existieron, el largo tiempo transcurrido desde la formación de nuestro planeta ha hecho que prácticamente desapareciesen).Así, elementos intensamente radiactivos como el Neptunio (Np, Z=93, vida media de hasta 2 millones de años), el Plutonio (Pu, Z=94, vida media entre 30.000 y 80.000 años) Tecnecio (Tc, Z=43, vida media de hasta 4 millones de años)...etc. han hecho su aparición en el medio ambiente por primera vez en millones de años.Se trata de elementos con una vida media varios órdenes de magnitud más corta que el Uranio y el Torio (hablamos de miles o millones de años, frente a miles de millones) lo que quiere decir que las descomposiciones son miles de veces más rápidas y, por tanto, son miles de veces más radiactivos (y peligrosos) que ellos. Las consecuencias de tener con nosotros estos nuevos "compañeros de viaje" son difíciles de prever, máxime cuando hablamos de unas sustancias que van a estar acompañándonos (a nosotros o a quienes nos sucedan) durante varios millones de años. Neptunio Plutonio Tecnecio Otros, como el cesio y el estroncio, son elementos que existen de forma natural, pero en los reactores nucleares se producen isótopos radiactivos (137Cs y 90Sr ) que tienen una vida media relativamente larga (entre 30 y 40 años) y son extremadamente radiactivos y peligrosos, ya que se absorben fácilmente por los seres vivos. Cesio EstroncioPor último, algunas especies de Yodo, (como el 131I)aunque tengan una vida media muy corta, son rápidamente asimilados por el organismo y se acumulan en la tiroides, donde causan daños. YodoFuentes: http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neptuniohttp://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plutoniohttp://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tecneciohttp://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cesiohttp://concurso.cnice.mec.es/cnice2005/93_iniciacion_interactiva_materia/curso/materiales/tabla_period/sr.htmhttp://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yodo3. ¿Cómo interacciona con la materia y qué efectos tiene sobre la salud?3.1. Interacción con la materiaLa materia en estado ordinario se compone de átomos y moléculas. Cada molécula es un conjunto de varios núcleos atómicos (de carga positiva) que se mantienen cohesionados por una "nube de electrones" (de carga negativa) a su alrededor. Es decir, los electrones son el "cemento" que mantiene unida a la materia.Si se altera la relación entre electrones y carga de los núcleos, puede llegar un momento en que la tensión electrostática entre los núcleos que forman una molécula sea superior a la capacidad de cementar de los electrones restantes. La molécula puede desestabilizarse y romperse.Por tanto, la radiación ionizante, que altera la carga eléctrica de la materia, tiene como uno de sus efectos secundarios la desestabilización y rotura de las moléculas que la forman.Las partículas alfa, por su gran afinidad electrónica, capturan los electrones de la materia que atraviesan, alterando su carga.Las partículas beta+ (positrones) pueden aniquilar electrones de la nube, alternado la carga eléctrica de las moléculas.Las partículas beta- (electrones) de suficiente energía pueden: Ser absorbidas por un núcleo, alterando su carga eléctrica. O bien "chocar" con otros electrones transfiriéndoles parte de su energía cinética y arrastrándolos fuera de las moléculas.La radiación gamma interacciona con los átomos de la materia con tres mecanismos distintos. Absorción fotoeléctrica: interacción en la que el fotón gamma incidente desaparece y transfiere su energía a un electrón que sale "despedido" de la molécula. Los electrones tienen la capacidad de absorber energía en forma de cuantos de energía electromagnética (un "cuanto" de energía electromagnética no es más que un fotón de luz de una cierta longitud de onda) resultando en estados "excitados" de la molécula. Si la cantidad de energía absorbida es suficientemente alta, el electrón sale "despedido" al exterior dejando a la molécula con carga positiva (efecto fotoeléctrico).El efecto fotoeléctrico se da también con otras longitudes de onda menos energéticas (rayos X y ultravioleta). Efecto Compton: colisión elástica entre un electrón ligado y un fotón incidente, con una transferencia de parte de la energía del fotón al electrón (la división de energía entre ambos depende del ángulo de dispersión). Producción de pares: el fotón desaparece y se forma un par electrón - positrón. Debido a que el positrón es una forma de antimateria, una vez que su energía cinética se haga despreciable se combinará con un electrón del material absorbente, aniquilándose y produciendo un par de fotones.Por último, los neutrones interaccionan con los núcleos de la materia mediante los siguientes efectos: Activación: interacción completamente inelástica de los neutrones con los núcleos, mediante la cual el neutrón es absorbido, produciendo un isótopo diferente (igual número Z e incremento de la masa A). Fisión: el neutrón se une a un núcleo pesado (como el 235U) excitándole de forma tal que provoca su inestabilidad y desintegración posterior en dos núcleos más ligeros y otras partículas. Es la base de los reactores nucleares de fisión. Colisión inelástica: el neutrón colisiona con el núcleo cediendo una parte de su energía, con lo que el resultado es un neutrón y un núcleo excitado que normalmente emite radiaciones gamma más tarde.Fuentes:http://www.monografias.com/trabajos41/radiaciones-ionizantes/radiaciones-ionizantes.shtmlhttp://ocw.unia.es/fisica/origen-y-control-de-las-radiaciones-en-el-medio/materiales/ud2/unidad-didactica-2http://tecnozapata.blogspot.com.es/2010/10/diferencias-entre-fusion-y-fision.html3.2. Medición del fenómeno: Unidades del SILas unidades del Sistema Internacional para medir la radiación y sus efectos sobre la salud son las siguientes:El Becquerel (Bq), que se define como la actividad de una cantidad de material radioactivo con decaimiento de un núcleo por segundo. Tradicionalmente, se ha usado también el Curio, que corresponde al número de descomposiciones por segundo del elemento Radio, y equivale a 3,7·1010 Bq, aunque resulta ser una unidad demasiado grande para las aplicaciones prácticas (el Radio es extremadamente radiactivo).El número de descomposiciones depende de la cantidad de sustancia radiactiva, por lo que suele usarse la unidad relativa Bq/Kg o Curio/Kg para medir la intensidad de la radiactividad de un material.Como hemos visto, no todas las descomposiciones nucleares corresponden al mismo fenómeno ni tienen asociadas las mismas características físicas y energéticas. Así, para tener en cuenta la intensidad energética de una radiación, se habla de Julios generados por kilo y segundo, J / Kg·s. La conversión se haría, para cada tipo de descomposición, multiplicando el número de descomposiciones por segundo (Bq) por la energía asociada a cada una de ellas.Normalmente, lo que interesa de la radiactividad es la cantidad de energía absorbida de forma acumulativa por un material expuesto. El Gray (Gy) es una unidad derivada del Sistema Internacional de Unidades que mide la dosis absorbida de radiaciones ionizantespor un determinado material. Un Gray es equivalente a la absorción de un joule de energía ionizante por un kilogramo de materialirradiado. Así, 1 Gy = 1 J / Kg.La unidad para indicar la peligrosidad de una radiación para los seres vivos es una derivada del Gray, que tiene en cuenta los efectos de cada tipo de radiación sobre el material biológico (es una especie de media ponderada de las intensidades de cada tipo de radiación alfa, beta y gamma). El Sievert (símbolo Sv) es una unidad derivada del SI que mide la dosis de radiación absorbida por la materia viva, corregida por los posibles efectos biológicos producidos. 1 Sves equivalente a un julio absorbido por kilogramo J / kg.La diferencia con el Gray (unidad de la dosis absoluta absorbida) es que el Sievert está multiplicado por un factor que pondera para cada tipo de radiación el daño biológico que produce, mientras que el Gray mide la energía absoluta absorbida por un material.El Roentgen Equivalent Man (rem) es una unidad física usada antiguamente, corresponde a la máxima dosis anual tolerable por el organismo sin aumento apreciable del riesgo de cáncer, y la equivalencia entre ambas es 1 Sv = 100 rem. Fuentes:http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rem_%28f%C3%ADsica%293.3. Dispositivos de medidaLa medida de la radiación se lleva a cabo por medio de varios dispositivos:Contador Geiger-Muller: es el dispositivo más sencillo, y permite contar el número de partículas cargadas eléctricamente (alfa y beta) que atraviesa un cilindro en el que se establece una diferencia de potencial eléctrico muy alta (de varios cientos o miles de voltios). Cada partícula cargada que lo atraviesa provoca una descarga o "avalancha" en cascada y una cuenta en el medidor. Es decir, sus unidades de medida son Becquerels. Aplicando correcciones estadísticas por tamaño y forma del tubo y distribución de tipo de partículas se pueden establecer valores de energía y cantidad de radiación recibida.Escintilador o centelleador: es un dispositivo que provoca un destello cada vez que una partícula cargada o un fotón de alta energía lo atraviesa, por ejemplo, un cristal de sulfuro de zinc. Estos destellos pueden ser detectados por elementos fotosensibles y fotomultiplicadores y contabilizados. Fuentes:http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centelleadorhttp://nuclear.fis.ucm.es/webgrupo/labo/Lab_Detector_Centelleador.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geiger_counterhttp://bibliotecadigital.ilce.edu.mx/sites/ciencia/volumen2/ciencia3/094/htm/sec_8.htm3.4. Efectos sobre la saludLos seres vivos están formados por moléculas grandes y complejas, como las proteínas y el ADN. La radiación puede alterar estas complejas estructuras, y si afecta al ADN, provocar daños permanentes y hereditarios.Nuevo símbolo ISO para señalizar la presencia de fuentes de radiación ionizante, con una advertencia más explícita de los riesgos que comporta.Las proteínas se están generando continuamente, por lo que los daños sobre las mismas no tienen implicaciones graves (a no ser que sean masivos). Es más peligroso que los daños afecten al ADN.Una proteínaUna secuencia de ADNLa vida lleva millones de años conviviendo con la radiación de baja intensidad, por lo que ha desarrollado mecanismos para protegerse frente a pequeños daños en el ADN. La molécula de ADN es doble (es decir, hay una copia de seguridad) y toda una legión de proteínas especializadas se encarga de reparar los daños que eventualmente se produzcan.Sin embargo, hay tres situaciones en las que el daño puede ser permanente:Si el ADN dañado está en medio de un proceso de secuenciación (como ocurre, por ejemplo, en células en proceso de división o "mitosis") y la doble hélice está "desenrollada": en este caso, si se daña una porción fuera de la doble hélice, la proteína encargada de las reparaciones no va a tener una copia de seguridad.O bien el daño es tan masivo que se pierde la posibilidad de restaurar la situación original (estas situaciones suelen desencadenar la muerte programada o "apoptosis" de la célula).O bien si afecta a una célula reproductora.La ley de la radiosensibilidad (también conocida como ley de Bergonié y Tribondeau, postulada empíricamente en 1.906 y demostrada más adelante) establece que los tejidos y órganos más sensibles a las radiaciones son los menos diferenciados y los que exhiben alta actividad reproductiva (alta tasa de renovación).Como ejemplo, tenemos:Tejidos altamente radiosensibles: epiteliales (mucosa intestinal, piel, pulmones...etc), órganos reproductivos (ovarios, testículos), médula ósea, glándula tiroides.Tejidos medianamente radiosensibles: tejido conectivo.Tejidos poco radiosensibles: neuronas, hueso.Por el mismo motivo:Los embriones, bebés y niños en fase de crecimiento son más sensibles que los adultos.Las mujeres, con unos pocos centenares de células reproductoras, son mucho más sensibles que los hombres, que producen millones de células reproductoras cada día.A igual dosis, una radiación de baja intensidad y largo tiempo es mejor tolerada que una de alta intensidad y breve duración.Los daños producidos son los derivados de la destrucción de las moléculas y, principalmente, el ADN:Necrosis y degeneración de tejidos.Mutaciones que pueden ser hereditariasCáncer de diversos tipos En caso de exposición intensa, quemaduras y heridas que no curan (por destrucción del tejido que debe reparar la herida)Las radiaciones naturales (emitidas por el medio ambiente) son, en principio, inofensivas (aunque se cree que tienen una función importante en la evolución de la vida, provocando mutaciones expontaneas). El promedio de tasa de dosis equivalente medida a nivel del mar es de 0,12 microsievert por hora (1,2 microrem por hora).La dosis efectiva (suma de las dosis recibida desde el exterior del cuerpo y desde su interior) que se considera que empieza a producir efectos en el organismo de forma detectable es de 100 mSv (10 rem) en un periodo de 1 año.Hay que tener en cuenta que el Sievert y el rem son unidades de exposición acumulativa, es decir, guardan la historia de la exposición a las diferentes fuentes de radiación a lo largo de la vida del ser vivo.Por tanto, el factor que hay que tener en cuenta para evaluar el impacto en la salud es la exposición acumulada, y no tanto la puntual. Por este motivo, el personal expuesto por razones profesionales o ambientales a este tipo de radiación debe llevar consigo un dosímetro, que es un aparato que mide la exposición acumulada, y se deben tomar medidas preventivas (alejamiento, apantallamiento adicional...etc.) si se alcanzan las dosis máximas recomendables:Fuentes:http://www.biounalm.com/2011/03/que-significan-los-milisievert_16.htmlhttp://www.biounalm.com/2011/03/que-significan-los-milisievert_16.htmlhttp://amazings.es/2011/03/18/grafica-del-nivel-de-peligrosidad-de-las-radiaciones/http://www.elergonomista.com/27en06.html3.4. Radiación interna y externaA la hora de evaluar el impacto sobre la salud, es muy importante distinguir si la fuente de radiación es externa o interna.De la radiación externa, la alfa y beta es frenada por la piel y sólo penetra la radiación gamma. Pueden prevenirse los daños reduciendo del tiempo de exposición, alejándose de la fuente (la intensidad disminuye con el cuadrado de la distancia):o interponiendo pantallas, preferiblemente de materiales de alta densidad (para la radiación gamma, a modo de ejemplo, 6 mm de plomo realizan la misma labor aislante que 1 m de hormigón o 6 m de tierra).Los efectos de la radiación externa dependen de la dosis acumulada:De la interna, mucho más peligrosa, afectan los tres tipos y especialmente la radiación alfa y beta, muy energética, produce daños e inflamación locales.Radiación interna y externaLas fuentes de entrada de material radiactivo son: la ingestión, inhalación, y lapenetración por contacto a través de heridas o piel sana. La radiación interna es provocada por una serie de isótopos muy concretos, (verdaderas "bestias negras") cuyo efecto depende de su comportamiento y el lugar en que se acumulan: Yodo (131I) Presente en: agua contaminada (normalmente, tras un vertido de agua contaminada en una central o una explosión) Se adquiere a través de: agua y alimentos Presencia en el organismo: breve (unos días) Se acumula en: tiroides Causa: tiene el potencial de causar mutaciones cancerosas en la tiroidesCesio (137Cs) Presente en: agua contaminada y alimentos, donde es muy soluble, debido a que químicamente se comporta como el sodio o el potasioSe adquiere a través de: agua y alimentosPresencia en el organismo: Unos 50 días de mediaSe acumula en: músculos y zonas blandasCausa: cánceres del tejido blando, mutacionesMetales pesados (Uranio U, Torio Th, Neptunio Np, Plutonio Pu, Actinio Ac, Americio Am...etc.) Presente en: terrenos contaminados, aireSe adquiere a través de: no es común entrar en contacto con estas sustancias, toda vez que sólo existen en cantidades apreciables en instalaciones nucleares y militares: si hay vertidos, escapes o explosiones, pueden contaminar los alimentos y el aire (por tanto, una fuente posible de contaminación es respirar el polvo contaminado tras un accidente o vertido). Aunque, como metales, pueden formar sales solubles en agua, su absorción intestinal es lenta y las contaminaciones en humanos suelen provenir del polvo fino producido en explosiones y accidentes de instalaciones nuclearesPresencia en el organismo: permanenteSe acumula en: pulmones, hígado y riñónCausa: irritación crónica de los pulmones y las cavidades en las que se deposita, varios tipos de cáncerRadio (Ra), Calcio (41Ca) y Estroncio (90Sr) Presente en: agua, pastos y alimentos (especialmente productos lácteos de ganado contaminado)Se adquiere a través de: agua y alimentosPresencia en el organismo: permanenteSe acumula en: tejido óseo, donde se asimilan muy fácilmente como el calcio, por ser químicamente muy similaresCausa: leucemias, degeneración del tejido óseo (es famoso el caso del Radithor http://thales.cica.es/rd/Recursos/rd99/ed99-0504-01/radio.html ), cáncer de huesosRadon (Rn) Presente en: suelos volcánicos (graníticos), con presencia de mineral de uranioSe adquiere a través de: aire respirado y aguaPresencia en el organismo: breve, por tener un periodo de descomposición muy cortoSe acumula en: no se acumulaCausa: cáncer de pulmón y mutacionesPolonio (Po) Presente en: fertilizantes de fosfatos provenientes de zonas ricas en mineral de uranio (la mayoría, por desgracia), ya que es un subproducto de la descomposición del mismoSe adquiere a través de: humo del tabaco, verdura y vegetales contaminadosPresencia en el organismo: permanente (se asimila al azufre)Se acumula en: pulmones de fumadores, hígado y riñónCausa: cáncer, leucemia y mutacionesAdicionalmente, tenemos dos isótopos radiuactivos presentes de forma natural en los seres vivos:Potasio (40K) Presente en: de forma natural en el suelo en diversas concentraciones.Se adquiere a través de: alimentos y aguaPresencia en el organismo: un 1% del potasio del organismo (unos 0,5 g) es radiactivoSe acumula en: todo el organismoCausa: potenciales mutacionesCarbono (14C) Presente en: atmósferaSe adquiere a través de: alimentaciónPresencia en el organismo: constanteSe acumula en: todo el organismoCausa: mutaciones esporádicasReferencias:http://almadeherrero.blogspot.com.es/2011/04/efectos-de-la-radiactividad.htmlhttp://html.rincondelvago.com/radiactividad_1.htmlhttp://www.elpais.com/graficos/internacional/Sustancias/radiactivas/liberadas/Fukushima/efectos/elpgraint/20110329elpepuint_1/Ges/http://www.foronuclear.org/es/tags/is%C3%B3topos-radiactivoshttp://newton.cnice.mec.es/materiales_didacticos/radiactividad/index.htmhttp://thales.cica.es/rd/Recursos/rd99/ed99-0504-01/radiactividad.htmlhttp://www.historiasdelaciencia.com/?p=711http://es.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiaci%C3%B3n_ionizantehttp://lular.es/a/ciencia/2010/10/Que-es-la-radiacion-de-neutrones.htmlhttp://www.cnea.gov.ar/xxi/divulgacion/seresvivos/m_seresvivos_f2.htmlhttp://www.cnea.gov.ar/xxi/divulgacion/seresvivos/m_seresvivos_f2.htmlhttp://www.foronuclear.org/es/tags/is%C3%B3topos-radiactivoshttp://www.lukor.com/not-por/0808/27093157.htm

Carta al presidente del Gobierno

Excelentísimo Sr. Presidente del Gobierno de España,Le ruego que me disculpe por robarle unos minutos de su tiempo, que sé que es escaso y valioso; y en virtud de ello supongo que apreciará que vaya directamente a la cuestión y no pierda el tiempo en formulismos.Mi nombre es Antonio Turiel, y soy Científico Titular del CSIC, con destino en el Instituto de Ciencias del Mar de Barcelona. Soy físico y matemático de formación y doctor en Física Teórica con 14 años de experiencia postdoctoral. Trabajo en el Área de Recursos Naturales del CSIC y mi trabajo de investigación se centra en la explotación oceanográfica de los datos de satélite y el estudio de la turbulencia. Aparte de este trabajo de investigación, hago también una intensa tarea de formación y divulgación sobre los problemas de sostenibilidad de nuestra sociedad, y particularmente sobre los retos que supone el inevitable decrecimiento energético al que estamos ya abocados.Le escribo porque, en mi calidad de servidor público, creo que una función importante que debo cumplir es la de alertar sobre los retos que deberá afrontar la sociedad española, especialmente aquellos que supongan riesgos mayores poco abordados. Y después de unos años investigando el problema de la creciente escasez de recursos energéticos estoy convencido de que no se está abordando correctamente desde las instancias públicas, en parte por las complejidades técnicas del problema, y en parte porque la nueva situación entra en profunda contradicción con las bases de nuestro sistema económico, financiero y productivo y por tanto se hace odiosa de aceptar por parte de los expertos económicos.La situación es, al final, bastante simple. Hemos llegado a un punto en el cual no podemos aumentar mucho más la cantidad de energía disponible anualmente para las actividades humanas en este planeta. Peor aún, teniendo en cuenta que todas las materias energéticas no renovables (petróleo, gas natural, carbón y uranio) siguen una curva de explotación que siempre tiene una fase terminal de declino, que todas ellas están ya cerca de su máximo productivo -si no lo han pasado ya- y que las renovables no pueden ni de lejos ofrecer la misma cantidad de energía, estamos abocados a un descenso energético prolongado y de gran magnitud. En el caso del petróleo crudo, por fin en 2010  la propia Agencia Internacional de la Energía reconoció que superó su máximo productivo en 2006, y que actualmente la producción total de petróleo sólo puede crecer si lo hace la de petróleos sintéticos (arenas bituminosas, biocombustibles, líquidos del gas natural, petróleos de esquisto...), que son petróleos de menor poder energético, mayor coste energético de producción, menos versátiles para el refino y encima de producción limitada ya que dependen de la disponibilidad en grandes cantidades de otras materias, en particular gas y agua, cuyo flujo no siempre se puede aumentar.Estos problemas con el petróleo crean una situación de impasse histórico. El petróleo no es fácilmente sustituible por otras fuentes de energía y el coche eléctrico nunca será desplegado a gran escala. Se espera además que el gas natural llegue a su máximo hacia 2020, incluso contando con los no convencionales (el más destacado actualmente el gas de esquisto o shale gas, el cual tiene muy baja rentabilidad energética y por tanto económica). El carbón llegará a su máximo productivo en esta década, y en cuanto al uranio su cenit productivo se espera para entre 2015 y 2035, aunque estudios recientes se decantan más por la primera fecha. Añádase a eso que el potencial eólico teórico de la Tierra en su conjunto no llega ni a la catorceava parte del consumo energético global, que las placas fotovoltaicas tienen un rendimiento energético insuficiente para mantener una sociedad (como se sabe, la energía que recupera una sociedad ha de ser unas 10 veces superior a la que se invierte en su extracción, so pena de entrar en una espiral de colapso económico), que la hidráulica ya está al límite de explotación en Occidente, que las otras renovables (geotérmica, mareomotriz, undimotriz,...) tienen un potencial limitadísimo, y que en materia energética no hay milagros a la vista. El panorama que se dibuja para los próximos años es, por tanto, muy sombrío, puesto que energía es economía y faltando energía esta crisis económica no acabará nunca.No sólo los técnicos como yo están alertando del problema. Ya en 2010 la compañía aseguradora Lloyd's (la mayor del mundo) presentó un informe en la Chatham House británica alertando de una posible interrupción global del suministro de petróleo (y sus graves consecuencias) en 2013. Personalidades internacionalmente reputadas del mundo de los negocios (como el inversor Jeremy Grantham) alertan de que los problemas con el suministro de materias primas son estructurales e irresolubles. El propio Fondo Monetario Internacional ha comenzado a considerar que los problemas de suministro de petróleo no se resuelven mediante una mera regulación de oferta y demanda, sino que los factores geológicos modulan la respuesta y pueden inducir una recesión (como muestra un documento de trabajo reciente). Incluso en el Banco de España un estudio reciente sobre el problema de la energía neta llega a la conclusión de que la geología domina sobre las señales del mercado y que nos podemos estar adentrando en una época de escasez. Y por no hablar de los cientos de documentos en que se analiza el problema de la inminente escasez de petróleo por el Departamento de Energía de los EE.UU., el Servicio de Inteligencia Militar de los EE.UU. (y también el alemán) o diversos think tanks de la industria.A nivel político los movimientos son amplios fuera de nuestro país. La última Administración Bush encargó el llamado Informe Hirsch, el cual analizaba el problema del Peak Oil y advertía de sus graves e inminentes consecuencias. La presente Administración Obama tomó muy en serio el reto, como se refleja en la elección del Secretario de Energía, el Dr. Steven Chu, premio Nobel de Física y director del Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory hasta su nombramiento como Secretario de Energía; el trabajo del Dr. Chu se centraba en la seguridad energética de su país y ya en 2006 alertaba sobre la posible llegada del Peak Oil para 2010. Los movimientos en el Reino Unido son de especial amplitud, con una comisión parlamentaria especial para tratar de este problema y contactos frecuentes con la industria y los expertos. Incluso en Francia, el Primer Ministro François Fillon reconoció en la Asamblea Nacional en Abril del año pasado que la producción de petróleo ya sólo puede decrecer. En cuanto a España, el peak oil ha sido abordado en multitud de documentos públicos, desde el anterior Plan de la Energía de la Generalitat de Catalunya hasta en las deliberaciones de la Comisión Nacional de la Energía sobre la Ley de la Economía Sostenible presentada por el anterior Gobierno. Hay, literalmente, cientos de documentos donde se alerta sobre la inminencia y gravedad del problema, pero éste es un debate público pero no publicitado.Y es precisamente esta falta de publicidad la que seguramente le está haciendo más daño hoy en día al debate político y desgastando en demasía a los gobiernos. Porque el problema del descenso energético no puede ser abordado de una manera convencional. Porque la crisis energética no se manifiesta como una escasez directa de energía, sino en una progresiva falta de capacidad de acceder a la misma y una destrucción económica continuada por falta de viabilidad de los negocios. La crisis energética, que ya está instalada entre nosotros, mina la viabilidad de nuestro sistema económico y por ende de nuestra sociedad.Entiendo que sus asesores le aconsejan que tome más y más medidas de austeridad para garantizar el retorno a la senda del crecimiento, pero el problema es que el crecimiento es ya físicamente imposible, por escasez de la energía necesaria para ir a más; como mucho podemos aspirar a mantenernos y en el peor de los casos a ir decreciendo lentamente, arrastrados por el descenso energético. Resulta difícil refutar que el petróleo ha entrado en una nueva era, la del petróleo caro, la del petróleo difícil, la del petróleo incompatible con el desarrollo económico. Incluso el más entusiasta de sus asesores comprenderá que hay un grave problema estructural simplemente echándole un vistazo a la gráfica de elasticidad de la producción de petróleo (sacada, por cierto, de un artículo publicado en Nature este mismo año).Extraído de  Muuray & King, Nature 481, 433--435; 2012La realidad, Sr. Presidente, es que vivimos un momento histórico que nadie sabe de cierto cómo encarar, y que por ello mismo la actitud general delante de él es la de negarlo. Pero negarlo sólo nos hunde más y más en esta crisis económica que no puede acabar nunca. Y como por desgracia ya está comprobando a Vd., Sr. Presidente, le harán responsable de un proceso del que no tiene la culpa y contra el que no puede hacer nada con los medios convencionales, con los medios que hasta ahora se han adoptado. Pero delante de esta crisis última, la de los recursos, podemos reaccionar, podemos amortiguar sus efectos; podemos, sí, pero planteando las cosas de una manera muy diferente a como se ha hecho hasta ahora. No puedo decirle qué es lo que debe hacer; es Vd. el Presidente y yo sólo un simple servidor público. Sólo me permito sugerirle que preste una atención preferente a la cuestión de la crisis energética y que comprenda hasta qué punto es la causa última y fundamental de las dificultades que estamos viviendo y de las que viviremos. Estoy seguro de que a partir de ahí entenderá más claramente por dónde debemos seguir.Confío en Vd., Sr. Presidente. Nuestro futuro está en sus manos.Atentamente, Antonio TurielCientífico Titular del CSIC

Oil Crash Observatory

Gas de Esquisto, la perspectiva desde Rusia

Queridos lectores, A petición de varias personas de los grupos anti-fracking y por su gran interés general publico aquí la traducción al castellano del último post de Dmitry Orlov “Shale gas: The view from Russia“. Gracias a Manuel y Henk por la traducción, hecha en tiempo récord. Salu2,AMT Gas de Esquisto, la perspectiva desde Rusia La historia oficial del gas esquisto cuenta algo como esto: recientes avances tecnológicos conseguidos por compañías energéticas de los Estados Unidos han hecho posible el aprovechamiento de una abundante, pero anteriormente inaccesible, fuente de gas natural limpio y respetuoso con el medio ambiente. Esto ha permitido a los EE.UU convertirse en el líder mundial en producción de gas natural, superando a Rusia y preparándose para el fin del monopolio ruso del gas en Europa. Además, este nuevo gas de esquisto se encuentra en muchas partes del mundo y, en su momento, permitirá a la mayoría de los países del mundo independizarse de los productores de gas tradicionales. En consecuencia, la capacidad de los países con la mayor reserva de gas natural (Rusia e Irán) para controlar ese mercado se reducirá, junto con su influencia geopolítica en general. Si este fuera el caso, entonces deberíamos esperar que el Kremlin, junto con Gazprom, estuviesen temblando de miedo. Pero ¿lo están? Esto es lo que el presidente de Gazprom, Alexei Miller, dijo recientemente a Süddeutsche Zeitung: “el gas de esquisto es una campaña global de relaciones públicas bien organizada. Hay muchas de ellas: enfriamiento global, los biocombustibles…”. Señaló que la tecnología para la producción de gas de esquisto tiene ya muchas décadas de antiguedad, y sugirió que los EE.UU han vuelto a ella por desesperación. Él lo descartó como una alternativa energética para Europa. ¿Es esto tan sólo el otro lado de la propaganda, o podría ser que Miller estuviese simplemente afirmando lo que es obvio? Vamos a explorar. Voy a basar mi exploración en las fuentes rusas, por lo que todos los números estarán en unidades métricas. Si usted quiere convertirlo a medida Imperial, 1 m³ = 35 pies cúbicos, 1 km² = .38 millas cuadradas, 1 tonelada = 1,1 toneladas cortas.   La cuenca de gas de esquisto mejor desarrollada es la Barnett en Texas, responsable del 70% de todo el gas de esquisto producido hasta la fecha. Con "desarrollada" quiero decir perforada y perforada y perforada, y entonces perforada un poco más: sólo en 2006 había tantos pozos perforados en Barnett como los que están produciendo actualmente en toda Rusia. Esto es porque el pozo promedio de Barnett produce sólo alrededor de 6,35 millones de m³ de gas durante toda su vida útil total, lo que se corresponde con el rendimiento medio mensual de un pozo típico ruso que continúa produciendo durante un período de 15 a 20 años, lo que significa que el rendimiento de un pozo típico de gas de esquisto es por lo menos 200 veces más pequeño. Esta frenética actividad no puede detenerse una vez que un pozo ha sido perforado: a fin de continuar produciendo incluso esas exiguas cantidades, los pozos tienen que ser periódicamente sometidos a fracturación hidráulica, o “fracking”. Para producir cada 1000 m³ de gas, 100 kg de arena y 2 toneladas de agua, combinadas con un cóctel químico registrado, tienen que ser bombeadas en el pozo a alta presión. La mitad del agua vuelve a subir y tiene que ser procesada para eliminar los productos químicos. Los requisitos anuales de fracking para la cuenca Barnett suponen alrededor de 7,1 millones de toneladas de arena y 47,2 millones de toneladas de agua, pero las cifras reales son probablemente más bajas, ya que muchos de los pozos pasan la mayor parte del tiempo inactivos. A pesar de la desesperada actividad de perforación/fracking, esto no son más que migajas para los estándares rusos. Las reservas probadas de Rusia de gas natural suman 43,3 billones de m³, que es aproximadamente un tercio del total mundial. Al ritmo actual de consumo eso es suficiente para 72 años. La producción de gas de Rusia se ve limitada por la demanda, no por la oferta; es baja en la actualidad, simplemente porque la eurozona se encuentra en medio de una crisis económica. Mientras tanto, la producción de EE.UU. ha salido adelante, sin ninguna razón adecuadamente investigada, tirando por los suelos los precios y haciendo que gran parte de ella no sea rentable. Comparemos: el precio de Gazprom en boca de pozo va desde 3 a 50 dólares por 1000 m 3 dependiendo de la región. Compare esto con el gas de esquisto en los EE.UU. que va desde 80 hasta 320$ por 1000 m 3. A este precio, los EE.UU. no pueden darse el lujo de vender el gas de esquisto en el mercado europeo. Por otra parte, el volumen total de gas de esquisto que se producen en los EE.UU., incluso teniendo en cuenta el frenético ritmo de perforación de los últimos años, una vez limpiado, licuado, y embarcado rumbo a Europa en buques de transporte de gas licuado, no sería suficiente para llenar la reserva de la terminal de gas natural licuado de Gdansk, en Polonia, que se encuentra actualmente inactiva. Parece que Gazprom tiene poco de qué preocuparse. Los EE.UU., por el contrario, tienen mucho de qué preocuparse. Se ha hablado mucho ya sobre la contaminación de los acuíferos y otras formas de destrucción ambiental que acompañan a la producción de gas de esquisto, así que no me ocuparé de ello aquí. En lugar de eso me centraré en dos aspectos que son igual de importantes pero han recibido muy poca atención. En primer lugar, ¿qué es el gas de esquisto? Haga esta pregunta, y le contestarán: “¡No me jodas, es metano!" ¿Pero, lo es realmente? La composición del gas de esquisto es una especie de secreto de estado en los EE.UU. pero se ha filtrado información sobre el gas producido por los nueve proyectos de prueba polacos, y no es muy agradable: el gas de esquisto polaco resultó ser tan rico en nitrógeno que ni siquiera arde. Existe la tecnología para limpiar el gas que contiene, digamos, un 6% de nitrógeno, pero el gas de esquisto de Polonia está más cerca de un 50% , y, dados los altos costos de producción, los bajos rendimientos, el agotamiento rápido y la baja presión en boca de pozo, "limpiarlo" hasta lo especificado (1% de nitrógeno) probablemente resultaría en una pérdida neta de energía. Incluso si el gas de esquisto es lo suficientemente bajo en nitrógeno para arder, los problemas no terminan ahí. También puede contener sulfuro de hidrógeno, que es tóxico y corrosivo y tiene que ser eliminado antes de que el gas puede ser almacenado o se inyecte en una tubería. Probablemente contiene tolueno y otros solventes orgánicos – ingredientes del cóctel de la fracturación hidráulica- que son cancerígenos. Por último, puede ser radioactivo. Todas las arcillas son moderadamente radiactivas, y la pizarra es una tipo de arcilla que, por decirlo de algún modo, es como si hubiese sido tratada térmicamente. Mientras que la pizarra de Barnett no es particularmente radiactiva, la de Marcellus, que recientemente ha sido foco de una frenética actividad de perforación, sí lo es. Gracias al gas de esquisto de Marcellus, gas radón radioactivo es suministrado directamente a su cocina, a través de los fogones de su cocina, o en una chimenea de la planta de energía a barlovento. Esto se espera que resulte en un aumento de las tasas de cáncer de pulmón en los próximos años. En segundo lugar, ¿por qué diantre se está produciendo el gas de esquisto? Los precios del gas natural han caído por los suelos, y se encuentran actualmente alrededor de 2$ por cada mil pies cúbicos. Esto nos da unos 70$ por cada 1000m³. Si los costes de producción del gas de esquisto son de 80 a 320$ por cada 1000m³, no está claro cómo podría uno ganar algo de dinero con esto. Pero tal vez ganar dinero no sea la cuestión. ¿Qué pasa si el gas de esquisto es sólo una campaña de relaciones públicas (con terribles efectos ambientales secundarios)? Volviendo a lo que Alexei Miller dijo, ¿y si el único objeto de todo esto fue aumentar la capitalización de la exploración de gas de esquisto y de las empresas de producción? La compañía número uno en el gas de esquisto es Chesapeake Energy, dueña de la cuenca Barnett y una "jugadora" importante en la cuenca de Marcellus. Esta compañía estuvo al borde de la bancarrota en 2009, pero luego se las arregló para volver a la senda de la rentabilidad en 2010 y 2011 a base de perforar, perforar y perforar, y luego perforar un poco más. El sesenta por ciento de sus ingresos proviene de operaciones de perforación. Y ahora hay un escándalo que involucra al (¿ex?) presidente de Chesapeake Energy: Aubrey K. McClendon, quien aparentemente se adjudicó una participación en cada pozo que su empresa perforó, que utilizaba a su vez como garantía para miles de millones en préstamos, los cuales utilizó posteriormente para apostar a que los precios del gas natural subirían (no lo han hecho). Mientras tanto, el numero de equipos de perforación de gas natural ha caido al nivel mas bajo en diez años. Teniendo en cuenta que los pozos de gas de esquisto se agotan muy rápidamente, parece que el boom del gas de esquisto se ha terminado. Pero ahora que todo esto ha terminado, ¿qué ha sido esto, exactamente? Parece haber sido algo así como la burbuja de las punto-com: empresas sin una manera concebible de obtener beneficios utilizando el auto-bombo para atraer inversiones y elevar sus valoraciones. Desde 2008, diversos tipos de manipulación del mercado basados en publicidad engañosa se han convertido en el alimento básico de la vida económica en los EE.UU., así que no estamos ante nada nuevo ni diferente. Una pregunta interesante es: ¿Qué clase de burbuja intentarán lanzar los EEUU después? Está por venir la salida a bolsa de Facebook. Facebook es una ridícula pérdida de tiempo y, como tal, parece un poco caro. ¿Vamos a tratar de hacer estallar una nueva burbuja de las puntocom? Otra ronda de hipotecas de alto riesgo no parece estar en el horno. ¿Qué puede hacer un "chico de la burbuja"? Si no hay burbujas que explotar, entonces es hora de volver sencillamente a imprimir más dinero. Así que todo este asunto del gas de esquisto no funcionó como estaba previsto, ¿verdad? Pero ¿podría haber funcionado? Si hubiera resultado ser mucho mejor en todos los sentidos, ¿podría haber hecho oscilarse la influencia geopolítica alejándola de Rusia e Irán y acercándola de vuelta a los EE.UU.? Por desgracia, no. Ya ves, no hay tal cosa como un mercado de gas natural global. Sí, hay algunos buques metaneros que navegan por ahí, pero eso es en gran medida un comercio de punto a punto. Hay un mercado cerrado norteamericano, un mercado europeo y otros mercados en la región Asia-Pacífica. Estos mercados no interactúan. El mercado norteamericano y el mercado europeo potencialmente podrían haber compartido un solo productor: Qatar. Qatar quiso hace tiempo exportar gas natural licuado a los EE.UU., pero después sin embargo decidió exportarlo a Europa, generando menores pérdidas, porque los precios europeos del gas son sustancialmente más altos. Y la razón por la que Qatar está "vertiendo" (sacando mediante "dumping") gas natural en Europa es porque tiene el gas para verter: su campo de gas del norte es campo muy “húmedo”, con un porcentaje importante de gas natural condensado. La cuota de la OPEP de Qatar es 36-37 millones de toneladas de petróleo al año, pero el gas condensado natural no es considerado como el petróleo y no está regido por las cuotas de la OPEP. La explotación de la laguna de condensación permite a Qatar exportar 65,7 millones de toneladas: un 77% por encima de cuota. El GNL (Gas Natural Licuado) es sólo la producción concomitante, y Qatar puede darse el lujo de exportar GNL a Europa en pérdidas. Esta es una anécdota jugosa, pero en realidad no mucho más que una nota al pie de página, una excepción que confirma la regla: no existe un mercado mundial de gas natural. Hay todavía hay, sin embargo, un mercado mundial de desinformación estadounidense y del bombo de las relaciones públicas, aunque esto también está cambiando. Visto desde Rusia está bastante claro de qué se trataba todo el tiempo: la propaganda estadounidense y chanchullos financieros. No hay nada que ver aquí, circulen, circulen. Kollapsnick    

Importando energía, exportando miseria

Imagen de http://www.indiacause.com Queridos lectores, Ayer durante la conversación en Burbuja Radio surgió un tema interesante. Hacia el principio del debate constatábamos que, de acuerdo con los datos que proporciona la Agencia Internacional de la Energía en su último Oil Market Report la producción de petróleo del mundo ha aumentado en el primer trimestre de este año, cerrando así un período de dos años (todo 2010 y todo 2011) en el que la producción de petróleo ha sido incapaz de cubrir toda la demanda y se ha tenido que tirar de los stocks de la industria para mantener una apariencia de normalidad, con precios muy altos, eso sí. La parte del león para cerrar este agujero viene de gran crecimiento de la producción de la OPEP (en buena medida, por el progresivo restablecimiento de la producción libia), pero también es significativo el crecimiento la producción de los EE.UU. Durante los últimos años, los EE.UU. han aumentado constantemente su producción de petróleo (precisemos, de todos los líquidos del petróleo) y ya está llegando a los 10 millones de barriles diarios, como se muestra en el gráfico que sigue a estas líneas, sacado del post “El mito de que los EE.UU. serán pronto un exportador de petróleo” de Gail Tverberg publicado en su blog Our Finite World (en inglés). Imagen de http://ourfiniteworld.com Parece, por tanto, que efectivamente los EE.UU. han conseguido revertir una tendencia de décadas y están remontando el vuelo desde su peak oil, acaecido en 1970. En realidad, la tendencia en la producción de petróleo crudo de los EE.UU. no se ha revertido significativamente: lo que realmente está pasando es que la producción de otros líquidos del petróleo está aumentando mucho: biocombustibles, petróleo de esquisto (shale oil), líquidos del gas natural… Petróleos todos ellos sintéticos, fabricados con un enorme insumo de energía y otras materias (generalmente agua y gas natural), con un poder energético inferior al del petróleo crudo -típicamente tienen un 70% de la energía del petróleo por volumen, con lo que la contabilidad actual, en millones de barriles de petróleo, es muy confusa- y con TREs muy bajas, oscilando -según el tipo de líquido del petróleo y el autor que lo calcula- entre 1,5 y 5. Incluso, si se mira con detalle el pequeño aumento de la producción de petróleo crudo, éste proviene sobre todo, como comenta Gail Tverberg, de la producción de tight oil, petróleo atrapado en rocas poco permeables como los esquistos. Este petróleo tiene propiedades similares al petróleo crudo (al contrario que los petróleos de esquisto, shale oil, que son en realidad hidrocarburos poco cocinados y que después tienen que ser procesados para obtener un sucedáneo de petróleo por síntesis con gas natural), y si ahora se ha podido comenzar a explotar es por el desarrollo de las explotaciones de shale oil, que extraen el petróleo por fractura hidráulica de las láminas de esquisto. El uso de una técnica tan compleja y agresiva para extraer un recurso marginal hace que la TRE del tight oil sea también muy baja, inferior a 5 en todo caso.Tenemos, pues, que los EE.UU. están aumentando significativamente su producción, pero lo está haciendo con petróleos de baja TRE. Como sabemos, existe un valor mínimo o umbral de la TRE media de las fuentes energéticas de una sociedad estructurada, que algunos autores sitúan alrededor de 10. Por tanto, se podría decir que el actual aumento productivo de los EE.UU. es un mero espejismo y si se puede mantener es porque el petróleo crudo que ellos producen y el que importan tienen mejor TRE y así la TRE media estadounidense es bastante superior. Sin embargo, ya vimos que la rentabilidad económica es subsidiaria de la rentabilidad energética expresada por la TRE (salvo si hay subvenciones que desvirtúen los precios, como bien señalaba Juan Carlos Barba ayer), así que tal aumento de producción de petróleo de baja TRE para autoconsumo debería ser nocivo para la economía de los EE.UU., al estar reduciéndose su rentabilidad energética y por tanto así la económica. No es el caso en absoluto: la economía de los EE.UU., a pesar de no estar saneada, está manteniéndose en una buena forma en estos primeros coletazos de la nueva recesión. ¿Cómo se explica tal paradoja?Se explica porque la economía de los EE.UU. no es un sistema aislado, sino que tiene una fuerte interrelación con el resto de las economías mundiales; más aún, los EE.UU. tienen la divisa fuerte, el dólar, que es aceptada en todas las transacciones internacionales. Así pues, lo que está sucediendo es que los EE.UU. están comprando en el extranjero los materiales que requieren para su explotación local (los tubos de acero para los pozos de fractura hidráulica, los fertilizantes para cultivar sus campos, el petróleo crudo que importan…). Pagan todos esos materiales con dólares, la imprenta de los cuales controlan (ya saben que EE.UU. se ha sometido a dos rondas de alivio quantitivo -quantitative easing – lo que en román paladino quiere decir imprimir billetes a mansalva para pagar sus deudas).  Gracias a la conversión del coste energético en coste monetario y la depreciación energética real de la moneda los EE.UU. son capaces de explotar un recurso local de baja calidad con un buen retorno económico. Sin embargo, en términos energéticos las cuentas no salen. EE.UU. está importando energía embebida en esos materiales que le están vendiendo otros países endosándoles un pasivo de baja calidad (JC Barba dixit), los dólares, es decir, en un intercambio asimétrico en el cual la energía representada por su moneda no equivale a la energía embebida de los materiales importados. En suma, este tipo de transacción supone una succión energética de los EE.UU. sobre los recursos energéticos del resto del mundo. Los EE.UU. pueden explotar esos pobres recursos locales porque el resto del mundo se lo financia energéticamente.Si se mira a escala global, este comportamiento de los EE.UU. está llevando a una disminución anticipada de la energía neta, más rápida de lo que en principio cabía esperar. La solución no convencional de los EE.UU. es buena para ese país, pero nociva en términos globales. El desvío de recursos para la explotación de las fuentes locales estadounidenses de baja calidad está lógicamente haciendo que esa energía no se destine a la explotación de otras fuentes de mejor retorno, y eso hace disminuir la disponibilidad energética del resto de los países. La situación se parece a la de una melée de personas en medio del mar, y en la que una se encarama a las otras para poder respirar él mejor mientras el resto se ahogan. Los líderes políticos europeos que miran con envidia el nuevo paradigma energético americano se equivocan completamente en su análisis si creen que pueden exportar tal modelo a Europa. Y es que al mundo ya le cuesta mantener la sangría energética de los recursos no convencionales estadounidenses, y difícilmente podría mantener otro jugador del mismo juego. En realidad el euro no es ya tan fuerte como el dólar, y en realidad nosotros estamos en la parte de abajo de la melée, quizá justo debajo del pie americano pero con la nariz ya a ras del agua. En realidad deberíamos entender que la estrategia americana nos precipita más velozmente hacia la escasez energética.¿Cuánto tiempo más durará esto? Tanto tiempo como el dólar siga siendo una divisa aceptada internacionalmente. Poco a poco los países exportadores se darán cuenta de que el poder de compra de los dólares dentro y fuera de los EE.UU. no es el mismo, de que el dólar le sale demasiado barato a los EE.UU. Quizá intenten usar sus dólares para comprar activos masivamente en el país norteamericano, o quizá diversifiquen su cesta de divisas o, simplemente, dejen de aceptar los dólares. En ese momento sobrevendrá un cambio de paradigma, la verdadera revolución que marcará el fin de la presente era. Quizá se postergue cinco años, quizá diez. Quizá los EE.UU., gracias a esta estrategia, consiga sacar pecho y respirar holgadamente durante estos años extra mientras precipita al resto del mundo por una pendiente más acelerada de declive de energía neta. Mientras los demás nos ahogamos, vaya. Salu2,AMT

Cenital, de Emilio Bueso

Cenital (Editorial Salto de Página) es la tercera novela de Emilio Bueso, un ingeniero metido a escritor de novelas de terror. Hasta donde yo sé, es la primera novela escrita originalmente en español que trata sobre las consecuencias de la llegada del cenit del petróleo.La acción transcurre en el año 2014, en una España completamente colapsada. Del texto se deduce que no todo el mundo ha seguido exactamente la misma suerte aunque vaya camino de ello (en línea con la teoría de los canarios en la mina que enunciaba Darío Ruarte hace un par de posts), y que en ese sentido las cosas en España han ido mal, muy mal. En el país sobreviven unos pocos asentamientos organizados, eco-aldeas, en medio de un mar de barbarie, canibalismo y destrucción. Cenital es el nombre de una de esas eco-aldeas, fruto de el empeño de un hombre visionario, Destral, ex-ingeniero electrónico y químico, posiblemente una especie de sublimación post-colapso del propio autor.Literariamente este libro no es precisamente el cenit de la literatura española, como seguramente no lo pretende. El lenguaje es sencillo pero efectista, y es de agradecer que no utilice expresiones recargadas para describir un desastre de la magnitud del que está hablando, sino que al contrario sea bastante discreto con los detalles más escabrosos – aunque algunos destellos de los mismos harán estremecerse al lector. Desastre que, en realidad, no se describe nunca en detalle: sólo tenemos retazos de él de las biografías de los miembros del asentamiento. Y he aquí una de las originalidades narrativas de la novela: los capítulos tienen una estructura alterna, uno ambientado en el momento de la acción presente (2014) y otro haciendo la breve semblanza biográfica de cada miembro del asentamiento. Esa estructura permite dar coherencia narrativa a la tragedia que se describe sin parecer la clásica descripción e inventario del desastre, y hace la lectura bastante más amena y la tensión por los acontecimientos presentes más soportable.La trama tiene ciertos elementos poco verosímiles, pero bastante menos que cualquier novela de ciencia-ficción o de anticipación y son admisibles en pro de una narración más fluida. De hecho, el gran problema con Cenital es que la desgracia que describe es bastante creíble; quizá un poco acelerada y precipitada, pero no inverosímil. En cuanto a la historia propiamente, resulta lo suficientemente interesante como para enganchar al lector.Cenital es una novela dura, con cierta carga de arenga (en los primeros capítulos se intercalan las reflexiones que el protagonista del libro había volcado en su blog, denunciando la estupidez e insostenibilidad de nuestro sistema económico) que le será complemente prescindible al lector concienciado y completamente incomprensible al lector casual, que lo tomará como una exageración del guión, en vez de una denuncia de hechos reales. No es un libro para regalarle a tu madre o a tu novia. Quien la lea y no conozca la temática del pico del petróleo no la considerará verosímil, y deprimirá a quien la conozca. Digamos que Cenital no es buen texto introductorio al problema, aunque podría valer como texto avanzado.Nota de descargo: Hace un par de meses alguien de la editorial me contactó por si me apetecía hacer una crítica literaria del libro. Yo ya les dije que de literatura no entiendo mucho, que lo mío son las literas duras, pero insistieron. He leído el libro y he hecho esta crítica sin que medie ningún tipo de remuneración, ni económica ni de ningún otro tipo. Me imagino que autor y editorial ganarán un buen dinero con el libro, en función de la tirada, así que esto no es una obra de caridad o altruista.  Pedro Prieto ha publicado hace unos días su propia crítica sobre el libro en Crisis Energética.

Canarias ante la crisis

Canarias incrementó un 2.000% el consumo de electricidad en los últimos 40 años

El proyecto “La memoria encendida”, de la empresa ENDESA-UNELCO en Canarias, está recopilando miles de documentos sobre la historia de la electricidad en Canarias (aquí, enlace de www.canariasahora.es sobre la citada exposición). En este interesante artículo del diario El Día se recopilan algunos datos de la historia de la electricidad en Canarias, destacando el incremento sorprendente anual del consumo eléctrico en el archipiélago (un 8% anual durante las últimas décadas), que ha llevado al archipiélago a ser una sociedad totalmente electrificada en pocas décadas, como ha ocurrido en buena parte del Mundo hoy desarrollado. Recopilación de imágenes de la Historia de la electricidad en Canarias, en Canarias Ahora.

La adquisición de combustible se acerca al 30% de los costes totales de las compañías aéreas

 ”La sensibilidad del negocio de la aviación al precio del combustible y su variación es realmente muy importante“, como afirma el estudioso Robaltón en su página web especializada. El factor del combustible ha pasado a suponer casi un tercio de los costes totales de una compañía aérea, partiendo de un porcentaje de alrededor del 10-15% de los costes, en un plazo de cinco años. Numerosos sectores empresariales se hacen eco de los efectos de este incremento sobre las compañías aéreas y del efecto de subida del precio de las tarifas, aunque consideran que la industria se adaptará a esta nueva estructura de costes. Según el director general de la IATA, “El combustible contabiliza el 27% de los costos operativos, y un aumento sostenido del precio del crudo podría aguarnos la fiesta“. En la memoria, el ajuste de compañías aéreas de la crisis financiera y energética de los años 2008 y 2009.

El precio de la gasolina

El precio del petróleo, la referencia obvia del precio de la gasolina, amen de la consabida imposición fiscal en cada país (en España es, pese a lo que se pudiera pensar, prácticamente la más baja de toda la Unión Europea) ha mantenido, durante los últimos meses, un ritmo de continua escalada que está acercando al crudo al record numérico del año 2008. Los diversos expertos han puesto sobre la mesa los elementos que están condicionando este incremento: el cambio dólar - euro, la incertidumbre en Medio Oriente, el sostenido crecimiento de los países emergentes y su demanda; la expectativa de recuperación económica que hace esperar un mayor consumo; el efecto Fukushima; la insuficiente inversión en exploración e investigación petrolera en las pasadas décadas; el anuncio de Rusia de reducir sus exportaciones de petróleo; la sospecha de que la capacidad excedente de Arabia Saudí se puede desvanecer con un repunte de la economía global; la deriva de fondos especulativos hacia las materias primas, que ha provocado inclusive la determinación del presidente Obama de perseguir a los manipuladores de precios; y un largo etcétera. Simplificando, podemos decir que  todos los factores mencionados tienen tras sí como principal pivote el elemental juego de la oferta y la demanda, que se saben ajustadas desde hace unos años en el mercado petrolero. La oferta de petróleo global se ha ampliado casi exclusivamente del que proviene de aguas profundas y de las “arenas bituminosas” del Canadá; también se ha incrementado la producción de agrocombustibles. Toda esta nueva oferta alumbra los mercados a precios muy superiores que los del petróleo fácil del Medio Oriente. Por otro lado, la demanda mantiene su pugna con la incipiente, aunque muy desigual recuperación económica global, y las aún sorprendentes cifras del gigante asiático, que aún hoy crece con dos dígitos anuales en consumo de combustible.   El economista jefe de la Agencia Internacional de la Energía, Fatih Birol, ha calificado el momento actual de “zona de peligro” para la economía mundial. Diversos economistas han dibujado un panorama que vincula claramente un petróleo alcista con otra crisis económica, conocida la relación entre el incremento del precio del crudo, la inflación generalizada y la subida de tipos de interés, que frenaría las expectativas de mejora económica en muchas zonas del mundo desarrollado, más devoradoras de recursos energéticos. Se cuestionan estos estudiosos de la energía si no estaríamos ante un periodo de crisis cíclicas en las que la destrucción de la demanda y posterior crisis que provocaría un petróleo caro traería consigo un abaratamiento de éste hasta que un ulterior episodio de recuperación - como el que se vive en muchos países - provoque nuevos repuntes de precio del crudo, crisis económica, y así sucesivamente. La lógica de este planteamiento se encuentra en que el fin del petróleo barato largamente anunciado no ha sido reemplazado, por ahora, por un recurso energético de similares prestaciones a precio económico. Cómo será la transición energética y a qué coste está aún por ver.   Sí que parece imprescindible por lo tanto, y no sólo por motivos  macro y microeconómicos sino también climáticos, de salud pública, de precaución, etc., ir reduciendo el consumo compulsivo de gasolina, lo que incluirá importantes cambios en nuestros hábitos de consumo. No se tratará tanto de extrañarnos por ver un precio cada vez más espectacular del combustible sino de dar pasos decisivos para deshacernos del derroche que supone nuestro consumo energético actual, y dedicar mayores esfuerzos a reducir nuestra vulnerabilidad y dependencia extrema del petróleo, haciendo un acopio de “buenas prácticas” ya implantadas que deben formar parte de nuestra agenda para la transición energética, un  incierto periodo de cambios que parece haber empezado ya.

(Varias fuentes)

El declive de la civilización del petróleo - La Nueva España - Diario Independiente de Asturias

The Oil Drum | Has the Global Economy Become Less Vulnerable to Oil Price Shocks?

Historically, 4% of world GDP appeared to be a dangerous threshold. Whenever the world oil spending rose above 4% of world GDP for a sustained period of time, global economy had suffered from major instabilities.

El FMI alerta de que en el futuro habrá problemas en el suministro de petróleo · ELPAÍS.com

Cenit-del-petroleo.com

Chris Martenson habla en Madrid

La semana pasada Chris Martenson (autor del Crash Course sobre el petroleo) habló en Madrid en una conferencia sobre plata, oro y metales (patrocinado por la Asociación Española de metales preciosos). El título de la charla es “Unfixable”, ó “imposible de arreglar”. Para ver subtítulos dar al botón CC, y elegir “traducir subtítulos” [...]

Cada vez más informes …

El informe de la “Oxford University” sugiere que las reservas de petróleo mundiales se han exagerado un 33%: [LINK, INGLÉS] El “United Kingdom Energy Research Center” indica que hay una alta probabilidad de que el petróleo barato alcance su zenit antes del 2020: [LINK, INGLÉS] El ejército de los EEUU sugiere que el cénit del petróleo [...]

Repsol y la era pospetróleo

El país publicaba hace unos días el artículo: Repsol se prepara para la era pospetróleo La escasez de crudo y el coche eléctrico obligan a las petroleras a reinventarse [...] según explicó hace poco su presidente, Antonio Brufau, suponen “convertir Repsol, de una compañía de crudo y gas, en un grupo de energía para el transporte”. El de [...]

Visiones de otro tiempo

Observatorio petrolero sur

Zonas de Sacrificio. Nuevo libro del Observatorio Petrolero Sur

Palabras preliminares Cuando este libro abandone la imprenta y comience a circular en actividades, espacios de debate, o, simplemente, de mano en mano, el Observatorio Petrolero Sur (OPSur) habrá cumplido sus primeros tres años de existencia. Para nosotros, el aniversario contará con una franca ambivalencia. Por un lado, marcará la consolidación del trabajo y la organización que iniciáramos a mediados de 2008, luego de un recorrido por diversas localidades y parajes de las provincias de Neuquén y Río Negro, difundiendo dos proyectos que sentaron las bases para la creación de este espacio: el documental Patagonia petrolera, la frontera movediza y el cuadernillo Patagonia petrolera, el desierto permanente -que incluimos en la segunda parte de este libro. Por el otro, el crecimiento de OPSur se vio forzado por el inédito proceso de expansión de la frontera hidrocarburífera a escala nacional, que empezamos a observar durante el viaje a Norpatagonia, y, en particular, a partir del proyecto de exploración de hidrocarburos en la cuenca del Ñirihuau. Aquí está la paradoja del aniversario. La necesidad de documentar y dar difusión a los diversos perjuicios y conflictos socioambientales que acarrea la instalación y el desarrollo de la industria -sobre todo en aquellas regiones que cuentan con escasos o nulos antecedentes en la materia, y en las que las explotaciones de petróleo y gas deberán convivir con otras producciones locales y matrices civilizatorias alternativas-, nos conminó a analizar la situación de otras regiones, como las provincias de Chaco y Entre Ríos, y, con mayor profundidad, las zonas orientales de Jujuy y Salta. Durante los meses de agosto y septiembre de 2010 visitamos esa porción de NOA, conocimos a su gente, sus comunidades, organizaciones; comprendimos otras dimensiones del territorio que ya es intervenido por esta industria extractiva o está a punto de serlo. Vivimos sus necesidades y pesares, también sus luchas y anhelos. En definitiva, sus proyectos para construir un futuro diferente. Leer más>>

Tenemos nueva página!

A partir de 2012 toda la información actualizada sobre la industria hidrocarburífera y sus impactos la encontrás en www.opsur.org.ar

Un buen puntapié para iniciar el debate / Fractura Expuesta

Un buen puntapié para iniciar el debate Posición del OPSur ante el proyecto de ley de Soberanía Hidrocarburífera La tan esperada medida de avance efectivo del Estado sobre el petróleo y el gas es hoy en día una realidad. No se ven mayores inconvenientes a una aprobación directa en el Congreso Nacional. La recuperación en el control y gestión del petróleo y el gas por parte del Estado nacional ha sido bandera y objetivo político de numerosas organizaciones, de las cuales somos parte. Sin embargo, no creemos que la medida apunte a la raíz de la situación y pueda ser tomada como punto de inflexión en la superación del marco regulatorio neoliberal, por lo menos hasta este momento. A su vez, el debate público --donde primó un punto de vista económico en desmedro de abordajes ambientales y sociales- se ha centrado únicamente en el por qué y el cómo. El para qué de la medida, según el proyecto de ley, apunta a alcanzar el autoabastecimiento energético y el equilibrio de la balanza comercial. Sin embargo no se llega a dilucidar el día después con mayor profundidad, los únicos indicios son el explícito interés sobre los cuestionados yacimientos no convencionales. La formación Vaca Muerta -que se ubica principalmente en territorio de la provincia de Neuquén- es la que más intereses despierta -aunque también existen otras cuencas en el país-; el escenario futuro, podría ser de profundo riesgo ambiental y social para gran parte del país, como lo demuestra la experiencia internacional. Leer más>> Fractura expuesta: yacimientos no convencionales en Argentina Editorial / Marzo 2012 ¿Novedad o el horror potenciado? La voracidad energética del capitalismo continúa haciendo de las suyas. Diversos gobiernos y empresas están dando un fuerte impulso al desarrollo de los denominados yacimientos no convencionales -arenas bituminosas, petróleo y gas de pizarra o esquisto (shale gas y shale oil) y gas de arenas profundas/ compactas (tight gas)- a pesar de que requiere una ocupación más extensa e intensa del territorio, la utilización de grandes cantidades de agua y químicos de alta toxicidad, y que las tecnologías empleadas para su extracción redoblan el impacto generado por las explotaciones tradicionales. La "revolución energética" que los no convencionales iniciaron en Estados Unidos a principios de milenio ha sido exportada al resto del mundo por las autoridades de la potencia del Norte a partir de la Iniciativa Global de Gas de Esquisto (Global Shale Gas Iniciative). De la noche a la mañana, Argentina se convirtió en la tercera reserva mundial de shale gas detrás de EE.UU. y China, generando un verdadero frenesí en las provincias con mayores dotaciones del recurso. En las cuencas tradicionales y hasta en ¡Entre Ríos! ha comenzado una carrera similar a la que se vive en otras regiones de América, Europa, Asia, África y Oceanía. Leer más>> Próximas actividades de OPSur 21/04 | Bs As. Video debate: “La peor alternativa. Promoción de yacimientos no convencionales en Argentina”

Ni nuclear ni otras

Peaknik (Twitter)

Peaknik: RT @LionelBadal: @Ed_Crooks @kmac @derek_brower Colin Campbell says that IMF recently sent an analyst to discuss #PeakOil with him, inte ...

Peaknik: RT @LionelBadal: @Ed_Crooks @kmac @derek_brower Colin Campbell says that IMF recently sent an analyst to discuss #PeakOil with him, inte ...

ASPO International

IMF working paper on peak oil

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has released a working paper entitled "The Future of Oil: Geology versus Technology". Abstract: We discuss and reconcile two diametrically opposed views concerning the future of world oil production and prices. The geological view expects that physical constraints will dominate the future evolution of oil output and prices. It is supported by the fact that world oil production has plateaued since 2005 despite historically high prices, and that spare capacity has been near historic lows. The technological view of oil expects that higher oil prices must eventually have a decisive effect on oil output, by encouraging technological solutions. It is supported by the fact that high prices have, since 2003, led to upward revisions in production forecasts based on a purely geological view. We present a nonlinear econometric model of the world oil market that encompasses both views. The model performs far better than existing empirical models in forecasting oil prices and oil output out of sample. Its point forecast is for a near doubling of the real price of oil over the coming decade. read more

Peak oil is real and will stunt any economic recovery

Rex Weyler, executive member of the Vancouver Peak Oil campaign group, has written a viewpoint on peak oil for Public Service Europe. During the last century, society squandered 500 million years of captured sunlight on drag races, traffic jams, private jets and overheated office buildings - warns campaign group. Oil company cheerleaders proclaiming huge supplies of oil are dead wrong. Peak oil is as real as rain, and it is here now. Not 2050. Not 2020. Now. Oil production has been flat since 2005. This is not by choice. The producers cannot increase production because new fields cannot keep pace with declining production from old fields. The plateau is the top of the global depletion curve. Furthermore, this end of energy growth only accounts for volume. Energy quality and net-energy are falling like stones as environmental devastation increases. Every producing oil field on earth is in decline, unless it is brand new, and peak discoveries are well behind us. Meanwhile, the aggregate decline rate appears to be about 5 per cent per year. read more

Peak oil, price fluctuations and globalization

Chen and Hsu have published a recent study about oil price volatility and its impact on global trade. A large annual panel data set covering 84 countries has been examined and the evidence shows that trade will be lower when oil prices fluctuate significantly. This supports the ideas presented earlier by Rubin in the book "Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization" that peak oil may in fact reverse globalization. Abstract: This paper examines whether higher oil price volatility causes a reversal in globalization. Using a large annual panel data set covering 84 countries all over the world from 1984 to 2008, we investigate the impacts of oil price fluctuations on international trade, namely exports and imports. We present strong and robust evidence that international trade flows will be lower when oil prices fluctuate significantly. We therefore conclude that oil price volatility hurts globalization. Available from: ScienceDirect

Oil Depletion Protocol

Museletter #240: Top 11 FAQs

MuseLetter #240 / May 2012 by Richard Heinberg Download printable PDF version here (PDF, 119 KB) This month’s newsletter comes in 2 parts. The first part is what I hope you will find a useful and timely FAQ on current issues. It is the culmination of my experience from Q&A sessions during recent lecture tours. [...]

Museletter #239: Talking Happiness

MuseLetter #239 / April 2012 by Richard Heinberg Download printable PDF version here (PDF, 112 KB) This month’s Museletter comprises 3 short essays. The first is my impressions from the recent UN “High Level Meeting on Wellbeing and Happiness; in the second I respond to an essay on the fracking industry by Randy Udall; the [...]

#238: Coal, Pipeline Politics, and $5 Gas

MuseLetter #238 / March 2012 by Richard Heinberg Download printable PDF version here (PDF, 123 KB) This month’s Museletter comprises three short pieces on the topic of energy. First is an update on China’s devastating coal consumption; the following two concentrate on the current headline energy issues in the US – Keystone XL, and gas [...]

The Oil Drum

Drumbeat: May 18, 2012

David Strahan - Dump the pump: could peak oil be voluntary? People have fretted about when the world's oil will start to run out ever since M. King Hubbert came up with the idea of "peak oil" back in the 1950s. The American geologist, who worked for Shell, pointed out that we are destined to reach a moment when oil production stops rising and goes into terminal decline. With it, the era of cheap oil that fuelled the post-war economic boom would end. The idea still provokes great debate, and many forecasters are predicting that global production will peak by the end of this decade as supplies dwindle. Now there is a different view. A small number of analysts forecast that oil production will start to fall by 2020 -- not because we are running out, but because we just won't need it. They argue that the world will wean itself off oil voluntarily, through major advances in vehicle technology. Peak oil will not be a supply-side phenomenon brought about by shrinking reserves, but by motorists buying electric cars and conventional cars with highly efficient engines. If they are right, this shift will start the long-term transition from oil to electricity as the main transport fuel, reduce economies' vulnerability to spikes in the oil price, and cap greenhouse emissions from crude oil. Oil hits 2012 low under $107 on euro zone turmoil LONDON (Reuters) - Oil prices slipped below $107 a barrel on Friday and hit a 2012 low as investors fought shy of riskier, growth-oriented assets on fears that Greece would leave the euro, and after a downgrade of 16 Spanish banks by Moody's added to the contagion gloom. ..."The driving factor is still what is going on in Europe with the downgrades of the Spanish banks and very negative sentiment towards risk investments," said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. "It's not surprising to see further falls in Brent today." Oil May Fall as Seaway Insufficient to Ease Glut, Survey Shows Oil may decline next week on concern that the reversal of the Seaway Pipeline will not be enough to alleviate a record supply glut in the central U.S., a Bloomberg survey showed. Nineteen of 34 analysts, or 56 percent, forecast oil will drop through May 25. Nine respondents, or 26 percent, predicted prices will rise and six estimated they will be little changed. Last week, 48 percent of surveyed analysts expected a decrease. Unlike the East, gas prices stay stubbornly high out West LOS ANGELES -- Declining prices for crude oil have brought relief at the gas pump for much of the nation, but not for drivers on the West Coast, where retail gasoline prices have been rising this month. "We are seeing a tale of two coasts," says Michael Green, spokesman for AAA, which monitors pump prices. "On the West Coast, gas prices are rising steadily, while on the East Coast they are steadily decreasing." Oil markets vulnerable to more than 1 mil b/d loss of Iran's oil: IEA Oil market fundamentals could become much tighter in the second half of 2012 if EU and US sanctions keep more than 1 million b/d of Iranian oil exports off the market and non-OPEC output disruptions take a turn for the worse, the head of the International Energy Agency's Oil Industry and Markets Division said Friday. Obama may tap Strategic Petroleum Reserve NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Despite the recent fall in oil prices, analysts say President Obama may tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve as sanctions on Iran take hold. While oil prices have fallen from over $110 a barrel to near $90 in recent weeks, tougher sanctions on Iran begin to take effect at the end of June. That could mean up to 1 million barrels a day could soon be taken off the table, resulting in a possible spike in oil prices. IMF tells Kuwait to cut spending or risk running out of oil money Kuwait faces the risk of running out of oil revenues by 2017 if it continues its spending policy, the IMF has warned. The wake-up call from the fund comes as public finances deteriorate from rising public sector wages, pension costs and rapid population growth. The Biggest Threat to High Oil Prices The biggest threat to oil prices isn't excess supply, uneven demand or slowing global growth. It's the rise of the U.S. dollar -- or more precisely, the fall of the euro. UK gas at two-month low as Norway imports treble LONDON (Reuters) - British short-term gas prices fell to a two-month low on Friday after a high increase in imports via Norway's Langeled pipeline flooded the market with gas and balanced out supply losses resulting from maintenance work elsewhere. Gas for within-day delivery fell nearly 3 pence, around five percent day on day, to 55.50 pence per therm as the market was oversupplied by more than 20 million cubic metres per day (mcm/d). Excelerate Energy plans natural gas export vessel for Gulf Coast Excelerate Energy announced Tuesday that it will develop the nation's first floating liquefaction facility at Port Lavaca on the Texas Gulf Coast, to export U.S. natural gas. Enterprise And Enbridge Announce Completion Of Seaway Pipeline Reversal Houston, TX and Calgary, AB (Marketwire) - Enterprise Products Partners L.P. and Enbridge Inc. today announced that modifications to the Seaway crude oil pipeline allowing it to transport crude oil from Cushing, Oklahoma to the U.S. Gulf Coast have been completed. The pipeline is in the process of being commissioned, and the first flows of crude oil into the line are expected to begin this weekend. The reversal of the 500-mile, 30-inch diameter pipeline, which had been in northbound service since 1995, provides North American producers with the infrastructure needed to access more than 4 million barrels per day ("BPD") of Gulf Coast refinery demand. Gazprom Is Still Calculating Discount for Bulgaria - Russian Media Bulgaria managed to negotiate special terms for the supply of Russian gas regardless of its abrupt withdrawal from the Burgas-Alexandroupolis oil pipeline and the Belene NPP energy projects, Russian media outlets note. Gazprom Hopes to Build Second Baltic Sea Pipeline With the planned Nabucco natural gas pipeline in southern Europe hitting snag after snag, Russian natural gas giant Gazprom is considering the construction of a second Baltic Sea pipeline to go with the just-finished Nord Stream. With unconventional natural gas from the US flooding the market, however, the strategy is not without risk. ANALYSIS: Russia sets European oil export, benchmark grand plan Paris (Platts)- Russia's investment in new oil transportation infrastructure is part of a grand plan that owes much more to long-term profit maximization than it does to short-term economics. This is evident from state oil pipeline company Transneft investing billions of dollars in significantly more oil export capacity than it expects to see growth in crude oil output. Bulgaria, Gazprom hope to ink deal to cut price of Russian gas Bulgaria and Russian gas giant Gazprom are preparing to sign an agreement to cut the price of Russian gas, with Sofia seeking a 11.1% discount, according to market sources Friday. China's Ningbo Shuhua opens largest crude oil terminal in Asia: Sinopec Ningbo Shihua Crude Oil Terminal Co Ltd has opened a crude oil shipping terminal on Daxie Island in east China's Zhejiang province -- Asia's largest -- joint venture partner Sinopec said in a statement on its website Thursday. China to exclude foreign firms in shale gas tender (Reuters) - China will exclude foreign firms from bidding in its second tender for shale gas blocks, despite a need for overseas technology to help exploit massive reserves of gas trapped within shale rock formations in the world's top energy user. Mitt Romney vows immediate approval of Keystone XL on first day in White House WASHINGTON - Mitt Romney is vowing to approve TransCanada's Keystone XL pipeline on his first day on the job if elected U.S. president in November. Enbridge Pipeline That Ruptured Will Be Enlarged To Carry More Oil, Company Says TRAVERSE CITY, Mich. (AP) -- Enbridge Inc. will enlarge a pipeline that ruptured nearly two years ago in southwestern Michigan so it can carry more oil from deposits in western Canada and North Dakota, a company official said Thursday. Shell's Majnoon deal highlights Iraq oil target verdict (Reuters) - Shell is pressing ahead with talks over final development of Iraq's Majnoon oilfield, a senior executive told Reuters, and a lower, more realistic oil production target is a core part of discussions. Majnoon is one of four southern super giant fields that are vital to Iraq's ambition to at least double its oil output and put it firmly back among the world's top producers. But crunch time is approaching. Iranian protesters denounce Saudi-Bahrain union plan (Reuters) - Thousands of Iranians rallied on Friday against plans for union between Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, state television showed, and an influential cleric denounced the idea as an "ill-fated plot" that will never be tolerated by Muslims. Tension between Iran and U.S.-allied Gulf Arab states has run high in recent months with Arab leaders accusing Tehran of fomenting Shi'ite Muslim unrest in Bahrain - a charge that Shi'ite Iran and the protesters deny. Japan trade minister: considering options on Iran oil payments (Reuters) - Japan's Trade Minister Yukio Edano said on Friday the government is examining options for paying for oil imports from Iran after a U.S. court ordered a freezing of Iranian assets held by Japanese banks. Energy-deficient India turns to UAE for oil supply Under pressure from the US to cut its oil imports from Iran, India has decided to set up a high-level joint task force on investment which will also look into securing more oil supplies from UAE that has assured it of "increased" energy exports. India looking at Saudi, Iraq to diversify its oil sourcing WASHINGTON: India is looking at Saudi Arabia and Iraq to diversify its global oil purchase while making efforts to reduce its dependence on Iranian oil, a top Obama Administration official has told US lawmakers. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia Robert Blake told lawmakers at a Congressional hearing on South Asia that India is working to cut down the import from Iran not because of the American influence but because of commercial considerations as well. East Timor Ends First Decade Fighting Oil Curse The Southeast Asian nation of East Timor celebrates 10 years of independence tomorrow night facing a challenge that has eluded emerging economies across the world: How to stop oil wealth wrecking your economy. After a decade of contract delays, deadlocked oilfield negotiations with Woodside Petroleum Ltd. and a political crisis that almost precipitated civil war, East Timor has moved from the poorest country in Asia, dependent entirely on international aid, to one with a $10 billion resources fund and almost entirely dependent on oil. The U.S. Has A Lot Of Shale Oil, So What? Quite a few conservative commentators are making waves about a Government Accountability Office statement (PDF) which says that 1.5 trillion barrels of shale oil in Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming may be recoverable. Their reactions are all along the same lines: this shale-oil reserve could "by itself supply domestic oil consumption for more than 200 years", and "will Obama, in a possible second term, block the development of the resources that can assure America's economic supremacy for generations?" Typically simplistic. If only it were that easy. Technology can unlock new fields, curb fears of peak oil Technology advancements in the energy sector can boost oil and gas production, improve safety and curb fears that fossil fuels are rapidly running out, a Chevron official said today. During the opening session of a Houston energy conference this morning, Jay Pryor, Chevron's vice president for business development, touted a number of technology advancements that have improved the efficiency and safety of fossil fuel production, including enhanced oil recovery, 3D seismic imaging, horizontal wells, and hydraulic fracturing. "Because of technology, we are producing in places once just dreamed of," Pryor said, at the 10th annual KPMG Global Energy Conference. "In lifting those reserves, we've raised doubts about the eminence of peak oil." Scraping the bottom of the barrel Several articles in the international media in recent months have claimed that worries about peak oil -- the peak and decline in yearly world oil production -- are unfounded because vast new reserves of unconventional oil are coming on stream. But a closer look at these new sources of oil casts doubt on this assertion. Data from the US Energy Information Administration show that conventional crude oil production -- oil from wells accessed using typical drilling techniques -- has been essen- tially flat at around 74-million barrels per day (mbpd) since 2005. Looking at the history of con- ventional crude oil discoveries, this is not surprising -- they peaked in the mid-1960s and have been on a declining trend ever since. The Energy Revolution on Our Doorstep A major plank in my golden age scenario for the 2020's is the collapse of the cost of energy. This won't occur because of a single big discovery, but from a 1,000 small ones that aggregate together to create a leveraged effect. The upshot is that we may be free of OPEC in 3-5 years, and completely energy independent not long after that. The impact on financial markets and global standards of living will be huge. Author's no-growth prediction runs out of gas EDMONTOIN - Jeff Rubin says we've entered a new era. The world just doesn't know it yet. In his new book, The End of Growth, the former chief economist at CIBC World Markets says high energy prices are here to stay. Not for a month, a quarter or a year, but forever. The result? Economic growth has hit a brick wall, and the good ol' days will never return, he warns. Legislation Is Proposed to Extend Helium Sales Deadline In 1996, Congress passed a law to privatize the Amarillo helium by requiring the federal government to sell nearly all of its reserves. But the law expires at the end of 2014, years before the sell-off will be complete. Last week a Senate committee heard testimony about the bipartisan Helium Stewardship Act, which would extend the time period for the sales. Walter Nelson, an official with Air Products and Chemicals, a Pennsylvania-based helium refiner, warned that without such a move, chaos would ensue, with significant disruptions to industries like semiconductors and fiber optics. "Imagine the impact on global markets if 30 percent of the world's oil reserves were off limits," he testified. Shell Kulluk Air Permit Contested By Environmental Groups ANCHORAGE, Alaska (AP) -- Environmental and Alaska Native groups on Wednesday appealed an air permit granted by the Environmental Protection Agency to a Shell Oil drilling ship that could be used this summer in the Arctic Ocean off Alaska's northern shore. The groups claim the Kulluk and support vessels will put harmful pollutants into the skies, adding problems to a region already beset by climate warming, and that the EPA granted the permit without consideration of all national environmental laws and regulations. How much impact did the North Sea gas leak have on the environment? While the Elgin North Sea natural gas leak that was plugged on Wednesday was a massive financial blow for its operator Total, it appears the incident had little impact on the environment in terms of global warming and local marine life. Vt. becomes 1st state to ban hydraulic fracturing MONTPELIER, Vt. -- Vermont Gov. Peter Shumlin on Wednesday signed into law the nation's first ban on a hotly debated natural gas drilling technique that involves blasting chemical-laced water deep into the ground. The Democrat, surrounded at a Statehouse ceremony by environmentalists and Twinfield Union School students who pushed for the ban, said the law may help Vermont set an example for other states. The ban may be largely symbolic, though, because there is believed to be little to no natural gas or oil beneath the surface in Vermont. Siena Poll: New Yorkers are evenly split on fracking issue LOUDONVILLE - A new poll shows that New Yorkers are evenly split on the fracking issue. That's according to the latest Siena Poll. North Korea Seen Restarting Work on Nuclear Reactor The reactor, for possible completion by 2014-2015, would be able to supply needed electricity as well as fissile material for a nuclear weapon, the report says. It quoted a former deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Olli Heinonen, as saying that once the reactor is operational, it would be capable of producing enough plutonium to add "a little more than one bomb per year" to North Korea's nuclear weapons stockpile. Global generation capacity for nuclear power has grown to over 346 gigawatts since 1955 Nuclear generating capacity additions began in the 1950s and now top 346 gigawatts worldwide (click on animation above to assess trends). The first nuclear reactor to produce electricity was a very small experimental reactor in the United States in 1951. Currently, 30 countries have nuclear power programs. From the early 1970s to the early 1990s, nuclear power steadily grew around the world with brief periods of relatively slow growth following the accidents at Three Mile Island (North America, 1979) and Chernobyl (Former Soviet Union, 1986), as the nuclear industry absorbed the lessons learned from both accidents. Since then, nuclear power capacity has remained relatively stable throughout most of the world, with the exception of rapidly developing countries in Asia. An upcoming Today in Energy article will address post-Fukushima impacts on Japan's nuclear capacity. Denmark aims low with green energy policy SAMSO, Denmark (Reuters) - Over a beer or two, Danes like to tell a story that goes like this: One night the energy ministers of the countries around the North Sea got together to divide up its oil and gas wealth. The Danish minister got very drunk, but the Norwegian managed to stay sober. As a result, Norway carved out a jagged shape that included Ekofisk, which has proved to be a major field, and Denmark was left with the dregs. Regarded as a model of how to spend oil and gas wealth wisely, Norway has stashed away surplus revenues from exports while hydropower caters for the bulk of its domestic electricity needs. But Denmark has also found its own path to energy pragmatism, supplementing its relatively few oil rigs with wind turbines and a deep commitment to energy saving. Is There a Clean Energy Standard in Our Future? Americans want it, but how much will it cost? Just because Congress is unlikely to pass a carbon tax or a cap-and-trade bill anytime soon does not mean the United States can't work on lowering its greenhouse gas emissions. It turns out there's more than one way for America to skin that carbon cat. Ford C-Max hybrid to start at $25,995 The C-Max is a five-passenger crossover that looks like a small minivan but with conventional doors. Here are the top 10 'bikeable' cities. Did yours make the list? A score of 90 to 100 means the city is a "Biker's Paradise"; scoring 70 to 89 means the area is "Very Bikeable," while 50 to 69 means the city is merely "Bikeable." Any lower than that, and the city is deemed only "Somewhat Bikeable." A trio of public health professors at the University of British Columbia helped develop Bike Score. Healthy food no more costly than junk food, government finds Contrary to popular belief, many healthy foods are no more expensive than junk food, according to a large new government analysis. In fact, carrots, onions, pinto beans, lettuce, mashed potatoes, bananas and orange juice are all less expensive per portion than soft drinks, ice cream, chocolate candy, French fries, sweet rolls and deep-fat fried chicken patties, the report says. Will 3D printers make food sustainable? Before the end of the year, if Professor Mark Post of Maastricht University gets his way, the world's first test-tube burger will be flame-grilled by Heston Blumenthal at The Fat Duck in Bray and served to a celebrity guest. Meals at this restaurant don't come cheap, but this one will be the climax of a €250,000 research project -- and a milestone in Post's quest to find new ways of feeding the world, without destroying the planet. His petri-dish patty will be made from a mixture of fat and cow muscle grown from stem cells in a culture of foetal calf serum (that's blood plasma without the clotting agents) -- a technology trialled in February. It may sound less appetising than a Big Mac -- but it could bring huge environmental benefits. Producing beef this way results in a 96% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to rearing animals, and uses 45% of the energy, 1% of the land and 4% of the water associated with conventional beef production. U.S. Solar Tariffs on Chinese Cells May Boost Prices The U.S. yesterday imposed tariffs of as much as 250 percent on Chinese-made solar cells to aid domestic manufacturers beset by foreign competition, though critics said the decision may end up raising prices and hurting the U.S. renewable energy industry. The U.S. Commerce Department ruled that Chinese manufacturers sold cells in the U.S. at prices below the cost of production and announced preliminary antidumping duties ranging from 31 percent to 250 percent, depending on the manufacturer. China criticized the action, saying the U.S. is hurting itself and cooperation between the world's two largest economies. Solar sector looks to Saudi plan Huge investments in solar energy by emerging nations such as Saudi Arabia could spell the end of a crisis of overcapacity in the panel-making industry, according to one of the biggest producers of solar panels. Hawaii first state to ban plastic bags at checkout By now, it's hardly news when a city bans plastic bags at checkout counters -- but an entire state? That's happened in Hawaii, where Honolulu County has joined the state's three other counties to give Hawaii a first-in-the-nation title. "Passing the bans did take an effort -- change always does -- but people seemed to understand the need for such an effort," Robert Harris, director of the Sierra Club's Hawaii chapter, told msnbc.com of the two-year campaign across the islands. Brazil's Leader Faces Defining Decision on Bill Relaxing Protection of Forests RIO DE JANEIRO -- President Dilma Rousseff is facing one of the defining moments of her presidency as pressure builds on her to veto a bill that would open vast protected areas of forests to ranching and farming, potentially reversing Brazil's major gains in slowing Amazon deforestation. District Energy Systems can reduce carbon, save money - but only if well-regulated Centralized heating systems known as District Energy (DE) Systems generate heat at a central plant and then pipe it underground, providing heat and hot water for a cluster of buildings or even an entire community. DE has exceptional potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and contribute to a lower carbon economy. But unless they're properly designed and regulated, DE systems risk high costs and overestimated greenhouse gas reductions. Billboard Wars, Chapter 2 (or Is It 3?) Pfizer is not the only corporation Forecast the Facts had hoped to plaster across the freeway. It also planned to call out Microsoft and Comcast for donations to Heartland. "Our goal was to highlight Pfizer and other corporations' support of the Heartland Institute," Mr. Johnson said. "The question to ask is whether these corporations are based on a foundation of science or on a foundation of profit." Canada pledges oil and gas pollution rules by 2013 at climate conference Facing questions about its upcoming withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol and "gaps" in its existing policies, Canada told international climate change talks in Germany Thursday that it planned to crack down on oil and gas pollution through draft regulations by next year. Critical time as Qatar hosts talks The naming of Qatar's former oil minister to the presidency of this year's climate change talks reflects the conflicting priorities of Gulf states. Parts of Japan see record-high CO2 levels The average monthly concentration of carbon dioxide has topped 400 parts per million in Ofunato, Iwate Prefecture, the first time this level has been reached in Japan, raising alarm about greenhouse gases that can cause global warming. Temperatures rise across the ditch The last 60 years have been the hottest in Australasia for a millennium, most likely thanks to human-caused climate change, a new report says. Scientists from the University of Melbourne used 27 natural climate records, including tree rings, corals and ice cores to create the first large-scale temperature reconstruction for the region over the past 1000 years. Summer forecast sparks concern over fires, water shortages As the nation swelters through its warmest year on record, a new forecast for a broiling summer is raising concern about wildfires and water shortages, especially across parts of the western and southern USA. UK climate policy can curb energy price shocks-report LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's climate policies can help shield the economy from oil and gas price shocks triggered by external factors such as the Arab Spring, an analysis commissioned by the government showed on Friday. Q. and A.: How to Save Bangladesh? Bangladesh is a prime example of a vulnerable developing nation that faces formidable challenges in all these areas, and it will be directly affected by the decisions that are made -- or not made -- at the conference. Firm commitments have often been elusive on the international level. We asked Thomas Rath, the country program manager for the United Nations International Fund for Agricultural Development project in Bangladesh, about the development obstacles the country faces, some of which are linked to climate change and environmental degradation.

Updating World Deepwater Oil & Gas Discovery

This a guest post by Jean Laherrère, a long-time guest contributor to TheOilDrum. Defining deepwater oil as the offshore resource found in water depths over 500 m, the data available as of October of 2010 was pointing to an ultimate around 150 Gb. This is the result of an extrapolation made last year: Figure 1: world deepwater (>500 m) creaming curve 1971-Oct 2010 The previous ultimate estimate in 2008 was 100 Gb, missing the third cycle in subsalt plays. Figure 2: world deepwater (>500 m) creaming curve 1971-2007 The cumulative discovery versus time with the data up to October of 2010 implied that most discoveries would be made before 2025. Figure 3: world deepwater (>500 m) cumulative discovery versus time 1971-2009 Applying the Hubbert linearisation method to oil discovery confirmed an ulitmate of about 150 Gb. Figure 4: world deepwater (>500 m) oil discovery Hubbert linearisation The average oil field size has been around 100 Mb the last 20 years and a little less for gas in Mboe. At the same time there is a sharp change in the number of fields since 1995: it was less than 10 before that date and has been over 50 since! Figure 5: world deepwater (>500 m) annual oil & gas size The plot of cumulative discovery versus field elevation shows that the break for water depth is more about 200 m rather than 500 m. Figure 6: cumulative 2P discovery versus field elevation per continent (mid 2009) An update of this forecast was made with the data available up to October of 2011, this time with deepwater defined as the resource lying under 200 m of water or more. The IHS claims that deepwater is for depths over 400 m, but the database indicates that in the terrain deepwater is for over 200 m deep. In the US Gulf of Mexico the deepwater royalty relief act of 1995 refers to depths over 200 m (656 ft), but the MMS (now BOEMRE) reports depths from 1000 ft onwards. There is little consensus on the definition of deepwater, just as for ultra deep. The annual crude less extra heavy oil discovery is shown here since 1900, with both definitions of deepwater (>200 m and >500 m). Figure 7: world annual crude less extra-heavy oil discovery and deepwater (>200 & 500 m) The same data, now plotted as cumulative discovery. Figure 8: world cumulative crude less extra-heavy oil discovery and deepwater The creaming curve for world deepwater oil, this time defined as over 200 m deep, is here extrapolated with two cycles towards 200 Gb, meaning about 50 Gb for the water column interval 200-500 m. There is enough uncertainty to allow a third cycle, with a possible increase in the ultimate, but another new subsalt play is needed! Figure 9: world deepwater (>200 m) creaming curve 1969-Oct 2011 Combining oil and gas yields a simpler creaming curve, except for the last 200 fields. Figure 10: world deepwater (>200 m) oil plus gas creaming curve 1969-Oct 2011 The cumulative discovery versus time plot displays a sharp increase in the last 15 years, cause by the subsalt plays. Figure 11: world deepwater (>200 m) cumulative discovery The plot for oil discovery per continent shows that Latin America has the sharpest increase, due to Brasil. In the past there were jumps in the North Sea with Gullfalks, Troll and Snore in 1978, and in the Caspian with Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli in 1985. Figure 12: world deepwater (>200 m) cumulative oil discovery per continent The plot for gas discoveries per continent shows the large jump in 1988 with Shtokman, and the recent increase in Asia since 2000. Figure 13: world deepwater (>200 m) cumulative natural gas discovery per continent The creaming curve for oil per continent shows that Brasil with the subsalt discoveries has the largest increase and that North America still has some potential, though the average size here is quite less than in Brasil. Figure 14: world deepwater (>200 m) oil creaming curve per continent 1969-Oct 2011 The creaming curve for gas shows that the best result is for the CIS (Former Soviet Union) with the Barentz and Caspian 9 discoveries. In second comes Asia and the least efficient is North America. The Middle East with 20 Tcf, mainly from Israel, is at a good start. Figure 15: world deepwater (>200 m) gas creaming curve per continent 1969-Oct 2011 The average field size is about 100 Mb for oil and 400 Gcf for gas. Figure 16: world deepwater (>200 m) oil & gas average field size Conclusion Subsalt discoveries are now well taken into account in the deepwater oil ultimate and have increased it by around 50 Gb since 2008. It is a significant increase, but very small compared to the uncertainty of past world oil discovery, with the 300 Gb of speculative resources (confirmed by Sadad Al-Huseini) in OPEC reserves and with the 150 Gb correction from ABC1 reserves (used in scout databases) to 2P reserves. For more than ten years I corrected the ABC1 reserves data for the FSU by 30% to reduce them to 2P. This is based on the comparison of ABC1 field data with ultimates obtained from oil decline profiles in some Russian fields. Now Gazprom publishes in their annual report both the ABC1 and 2P reserves, the latter from audits, showing that this 30% correction is correct for oil and gas (ratio 2P/ABC1 = 70 %); nevertheless this figure seems higher for condensate. Figure 17: Gazprom reserves ratio 2P/ABC1 2003-2010 from annual reports Furthermore, I have some doubt on the reliability of some deepwater oil reserves figures. My paper entitled "Deepwater GOM reserves versus production" (part I, part II and part III) shows that the oil estimate of deepwater fields reserves seem optimistic for the Gulf of Mexico, and in particular, Thunder Horse. The Brasilian subsalt reservoirs are complex and there is little historical production, with only a pilot project online since October of 2010 in Tupi, now called Lula (with 14 wells already drilled) with 6 Gb of 2P reserves. The BG Group, which holds a 25% stake at Lula, has reported on the first production test with a FPSO, three producing wells and one gas injector. While it was expected to reach maximum production at 100 000 b/d, it actually peaked at 70 000 b/d in December of 2011, and has registered a decline of 5 000 b/d in the following two months. Figure 18: Lula first production: Oct 2010-Jan 2012 from BP Group In its 2012 annual report, the BG Group forecasts gross production capacity in this play to reach 2.3 Mboe/d in 2017, with a total of 13 FPSO in the Lula, Cernambi (formerly Iracema) and Guara fields. Deepwater oil production will help reduce the decline in world oil production from aging fields. The IEA claims that four Saudi Arabias need to be discovered by 2030 to replace the present decline in production (about 5 %/a). The deepwater ultimate is likely to represent less than half of Saudi Arabia's oil ultimate. It is not enough!

TheOilDrum.com Archive 2005-2011

During the past seven years, TheOilDrum.com has hosted analysis and discussion surrounding the possibility and implications of a near term peak in global oil production and importance of energy to society in general. Out of the ~8,500 articles posted here (all searchable by keyword in upper left), the list below comprises what each author considered some of their most relevant content. The list is in alphabetical order, by last name of Oil Drum contributor. Click on the author's name to go to their list of selected articles. At the end of each section, a link is given to the complete list of all articles by that author. List of Authors Gail the Actuary Ugo Bardi Art Berman Jason Bradford Joules Burn François Cellier David Clarke Samuel Foucher Nicole Foss Big Gav Prof. Goose Nate Hagens Phil Hart Rembrandt Koppelaar Rune Likvern Euan Mearns David Murphy Heading Out Jérôme à Paris Engineer-Poet Robert Rapier Luis de Sousa Stuart Staniford Jeff Vail Chris Vernon List of Articles Gail the Actuary Oil Limits, Recession, and Bumping Up Against the Growth Ceiling. Write up of an introductory presentation, explaining our how limited oil supply is causing recession and lower economic growth. Are We Reaching Limits to Growth? Looks at our current financial and other problems, in relationship to Limits to Growth (from the 1972 book by that name). IEO 2011: A Misleadingly Optimistic Energy Forecast by the EIA Explains why the latest official forecast of the US Energy Information Administration appears optimistic. Kidding Ourselves About Middle East/North Africa Oil Production. Why claims about future high oil production from Middle East/North Africa are likely overstated. The Link Between Peak Oil and Peak Debt - Part 1 Why limited oil supply is likely to be associated with declining debt availability. What's Behind Egypt's Problems? Explains the connection between declining oil exports and Egypt's "Arab Spring." Is It Really Possible to Decouple Energy Growth from GDP Growth? Explores why growth in energy efficiency seems to have stopped after 2000. Also see Thoughts on Why Energy Use and CO2 Emissions are Rising as Fast as GDP The US Electric Grid: Will it be Our Undoing? -- Revisited Why the US electrical transmission system has so many challenges, and the many obstacles to improving it. Social Security and Medicare Funding Issues: Even Worse when One Considers Resource Constraint Why Social Security and Medicare funding issues are even worse, when Peak Oil is considered. What Can We Learn from Gift Economies? Campfire post relating to a system where individuals gain status not by what they have, but by what they give away. There is plenty of oil but . . . There is a huge amount of oil that theoretically can be extracted, but the question is whether the cost will be cheap enough for us to be able to afford to extract it. If the oil is too expensive to extract, the shortage of oil seems to cause a recession, similar to what we are having now. Scientific American's Path to Sustainability: Let's Think about the Details Scientific American presents "A Path to Sustainable Energy by 2030" in its November 2010 issue. I explain why it wouldn't work. Some Cautionary Thoughts about Wind Offers ten reasons why wind is not as an attractive an option as many think it is. Delusions of Finance: Where We are Headed Explanation of why my financial forecasts at the beginning of 2008 turned out to be correct. Peak Oil and the Financial Markets: A Forecast for 2008 A financial forecast for 2008 that in retrospect has proven accurate. Our World Is Finite: Is This a Problem? Post written before I became an Oil Drum staff member that lays out may of the major issues that I continue to write about. Read more posts by Gail the Actuary. (Real name, Gail Tverberg) Back to the top Ugo Bardi "Peak Civilization": The Fall of the Roman Empire A post attempting to apply system dynamics to the fall of the Roman Empire which - as far as I know - has not been done, so far. Cassandra's curse: how "The Limits to Growth" was demonized With its scenarios of civilization collapse, the book shocked the world perhaps more than Cassandra had shocked her fellow Trojan citizens when she had predicted the fall of their city to the Achaeans. Just as Cassandra was not believed, so it was for the "Limits to Growth" which, today, is still widely seen as a thoroughly flawed study, wrong all along. The Universal Mining Machine Why can't we build a universal mining machine here, on Earth, and stop worrying about running out of mineral resources? Mind-sized Hubbert What is it, exactly, that causes production peaks for oil and for other non renewable resources? The dark side of coal - some historical insights on energy and the economy In this post, I start to tell the story of coal in Italy and how the fortunes of the country went in parallel with those of coal well until mid 20th century. The church, the peak, and my old watch A post about leaving something that lasts a long time and that doesn't need precious resources that can't be replaced. The post-peak car A fantastic account of how a 1970s Fiat 500 has been retrofitted with batteries and an electric motor to create the Post Peak Car. How to Drive your Elephant - Dealing with Complex Problems How elephant driving may be seen as as a metaphor for controlling complex systems. Peak Minerals A post taken from a report co-authored with Marco Pagani which examines the world production of 57 minerals reported in the database of the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and makes the case for the peak and decline of many of these minerals in the near future. Peak Caviar "Peak Caviar" is another confirmation of how common the "Hubbert" behavior is. It doesn't matter if a resource is theoretically renewable, as sturgeons and whales are. If sturgeons or whales are killed much faster than they can reproduce, then they behave as a non renewable resource; just as crude oil. Read more posts by Ugo Bardi Back to the top Arthur E. Berman Arthur Berman talks about Shale Gas McMoRan Davy Jones Gas Discovery Co-written with Joshua H. Rosenfeld, this post looks at a significant discovery in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico by the McMoRan Exploration Company that may contain 2-6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas reserves. Shale Gas--Abundance or Mirage? Why The Marcellus Shale Will Disappoint Expectations Shale gas plays in the United States are commercial failures and shareholders in public exploration and production (E&P) companies are the losers. This conclusion falls out of a detailed evaluation of shale-dominated company financial statements and individual well decline curve analyses. BP Macondo Blowout - Static Top Kill vs. Bottom Kill: Weighing the Risks A post co-written with William Semple. Is the Drilling Moratorium Long Enough? No, Not Really The key issues around the drilling moratorium as I see them. What caused the Deepwater Horizon disaster? The blowout and oil spill on the Deepwater Horizon in the Gulf of Mexico was caused by a flawed well plan that did not include enough cement between the 7-inch production casing and the 9 7/8-inch protection casing. The presumed blowout preventer (BOP) failure is an important but secondary issue. ExxonMobil's Acquisition of XTO Energy: The Fallacy of the Manufacturing Model in Shale Plays Most analysts believe that the ExxonMobil acquisition of XTO Energy (XTO) represents a dramatic shift in strategy by the premier exploration and production (E&P) company, and a validation of shale plays. It is neither. The move represents a considered and deliberate choice that acknowledges diminished opportunities for the oil giant to add and replace reserves. Read more posts by Arthur Berman Back to the top Jason Bradford The Thermodynamics of Local Foods I wrote this in response to a slew of media attention that argued against local foods. However, based on thermodynamics, only a predominantly local food system will be sustainable in the long run. Ecological Economics and the Food System This is a summary of energy use in the U.S. food system placed in the context of ecological economics. Our current food system is structured inappropriately for long-term viability, and the kinds of shifts required to make it more enduring are discussed. Save it for the Combine Few people understand how critical certain technologies are to their survival and way of life. The combine allows one person to harvest the food for hundreds, saving enormous labor while using liquid fuels. I argue that any rationing of liquid fuels or use of biofuels be prioritized for the combine. The Food System and Public Policy Many in the U.S. like to think we live in a free market economy. But when it comes to development of the food system public policy explains much of what we see. The Food System and Resilience Resilience is a concept from ecology that can be applied to any complex system. When the current food system is examined using a resilience framework it is found to be very fragile. The essay concludes by outlining the possible emergence of more resilient food systems given new economic and energetic realities. Energy Descent and Agricultural Population This article includes a graph that combines data on energy use and percent rural population, showing that more energy in a society lowers the proportion engaged in farming. Given the shape of this relationship, can we make some educated speculations about shifting labor demographics in highly industrialized nations during energy descent? Scenario 2020: The Future of Food in Mendocino County I believe there's the possibility of a near-term collapse of complex societies given a financial shock, perhaps precipitated or exacerbated by political and energy crises. This photo essay conveys this potential from an imagined future, with an emphasis on the food system. I have an interest in economics, in the broad sense, of how and why people and societies chose to invest and consume, and what this means for resources and the environment. The following three essays share a common theme: resources are only constrained in a world with exponentially growing demand for more stuff. Reducing demand is more important than increasing supply, and ultimately we have no choice. However, conscientious curtailment comes up against both engrained pyscho-social reward systems, which are largely explored in the first two essays, and the structure of our financial system, which is touched upon in the third. Finding Healthy Addictions Dopamine Returned on Energy Invested (DREI)? Advice to Pres. Obama( #6): Beware the Hungry Ghosts Read more posts by Jason Bradford Back to the top Joules Burn Khurais Me A River An early look at the development of the Khurais oilfield in Saudi Arabia using satellite imagery, reviewing past efforts to produce from the field. Ghawar Numerology: Drilling in Uthmaniyah An animated history of the drilling sequence in one part of the Ghawar oil field in Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia's Ghawar Isn't Sinking (but has apparently moved) A critical look at satellite imagery analysis which reached some faulty conclusions regarding the behavior of the Ghawar field upon depletion. Abqaiq and Eat It Too A look at recent developments in the giant Abqaiq field in Saudi Arabia using satellite imagery combined with published reports. Local Scientist Splits Water, Saves World, Gets On TV A skeptical look at recent claims of a breakthrough in water electrolysis to produce hydrogen. Five Easy Leases: Ghawar's Discovery Wells An in-depth look at the first wells drilled in the five operational areas for the Ghawar field, including their current status. Who Killed the Electric Gas Tank? A look at claims of a breakthrough in ultracapacitors for energy storage in electric vehicles. Saudi Aramco Loses Count, Drills Too Many Wells In Ghawar An satellite imagery analysis of Saudi drilling activity in the southern-most part of the Ghawar field, showing that more has been going on than publicly revealed. Lessons Left Unlearnt From 2003 Gulf of Mexico Near-Spill A look in the US Materials Management Service datafiles revealing a number of accidents and near misses which preceded the massive BP spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Crude Confessions: Massive Saudi Oil Spill in 1993? A look at how Saudi oil is transported out of the country in the context of claims of a secret oil spill. Read more posts by Joules Burn Back to the top François Cellier Ecological Footprint, Energy Consumption, and the Looming Collapse This article explores dynamic relations governing population growth, resource depletion, and world economics by means of a few simple modeling and simulation exercises. Is the 2000 Watt Society Sustainable in Switzerland? In this presentation, we discuss whether the 2000 Watt Society is at all sustainable, and if so, what it will take to keep energy supply at that level after the end of ample and cheap fossil fuels. The Slavery of Oil A review of a proposed methodology that would allow me to quantify the price level of crude oil at which our economies will stall. Read more posts by François Cellier Back to the top David Clarke The Failure of Networked Systems: The Repercussions of Systematic Risk Revisited Cascading collapse and why the corporate drive towards increasing efficiencies could be driving our interacting networked systems towards this mode of collapse. The Networking of Resource Production: Do the Networks Give us Warnings when They are About to Fail? The flaw in the techno-cornucopian dream: Modeling why and how a networked resource-extraction system fails. Read more posts by David Clarke Back to the top Samuel Foucher Analysis of Decline Rates This post offers a kind of reverse engineering of what numbers could be behind the long and detailed IEA decline analysis in their last report (2008 IEA WEO). A tentative decline structure for the post-peak Super-Giant and Giants oilfields is offered as well as a possible scenario for future production. Peak Demand or Peak Consumption? A Look at OECD Oil Demand In this post I show that the key driver behind the oil price increase since 2002 has been excess demand combined with unresponsive supply. Peak Oil Update - July 2009: Production Forecasts and EIA Oil Production Numbers An update on the latest production numbers from the EIA along with graphs/charts of different oil production forecasts. Estimating the World Production Decline Rates from the Megaproject Forecasts Having a good estimate of the decline rate of the resource base (most estimates are ranging between 2 and 6%/year) is fundamental for the precision of supply forecasts derived from megaproject database. Saudi Arabia: An Attempt to Link Oil Discoveries, Proven Reserves and Production Data This article is an attempt to apply the Hybrid Shock Model (HSM) on Saudi Arabia's oil production. In a nutshell, the HSM is trying to model the observed production profile from the discovery curve by simulating the different phases involved in the development of oilfields (initial discovery, planning, build, maturity). Why We (Really) May Have Entered an Oil Production Plateau We know that some countries (around 56) have seen their production peaked (also called type III depletion). The remaining group consists of 17 countries that have the potential to grow or maintain their current production (the type II group). I propose to apply the HL technique only on the total production from the the type III group and try to assess the future production decline coming from that group. An Update on Mexico's Oil Production--The Rapid Collapse of Cantarell by the Numbers Last year, I expressed my concerns about the eventual impact of a rapid collapse of Cantarell on Mexico's oil production. The last production numbers from PEMEX seems to confirm the rapid decline of Cantarell as well as the inability of the Mexican to rapidly bring new production online. The Loglet Analysis Most peakoilers on this site have been introduced to the logistic curve through the famous prediction of King Hubbert on the Lower-48 production. Fewer maybe knows that curve fitting techniques have been extensively applied by people that we may qualify as cornucopians. Ironically, the logistic curve is also used as a prediction tool for market share and technology substitution. A Different Way to Perform the Hubbert Linearization A quick post about a different manipulation of the logistic differential equation. By using the first derivative, we get a new way to perform the Hubbert linearization. Some results are given on Norway and the US oil production. Norway and the Parabolic Fractal Law Norway can be considered as the poster child of the Hubbert curve modeling approach with a production profile that is remarkably close to the logistic curve. Read more posts by Samuel Foucher Back to the top Nicole Foss Entropy and Empire This article is a discussion of the rise and fall of empire (in thermodynamic terms) and the process of imperial succession. The Resurgence of Risk Resurgence of Risk is a description of the developing credit crunch from its inception - an explanation of how we arrived at this financial crisis and where we are headed. Smart Metering and Smarter Metering Electricity metering is a significant means of addressing excess demand, but the high-tech metering solutions being proposed miss many opportunities because they pay no attention to psychological drivers. A MacKenzie Valley Pipedream? This piece assesses the prospects for the construction of a MacKenzie Valley pipeline through the Canadian north. Anaerobic Digestion in Ontario - A Regulatory Obstacle Course Renewable energy technologies wishing to connect to the grid face significant regulatory obstacles that add so much to project costs that project viability is threatened. Read more posts by Nicole Foss Back to the top Big Gav Concentrating On The Important Things - Solar Thermal Power While we spend a lot of time talking about traditional energy sources based on depleting resources that are extracted from the ground, I think its important to remember that the fastest growing sources of energy are solar and wind, and that these will never run out. Tapping The Source: The Power Of The Oceans A post examining the use of artificial islands to collect wind, wave, ocean current and solar power in the tropics, along with a more unusual energy source - harnessing the difference in water temperatures between the warm surface and the cold depths using a technique called OTEC (Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion). Geothermal Energy: Geothermia Crossposted from my blog Peak Energy as the subject of geothermal power has cropped up in the comments a few times lately. Floating Offshore Wind Power An update on a post I did last year on the potential for floating offshore wind power, which looked at a number of different prototypes at various stages of development. The Limits To Scenario Planning A review of some common misconceptions about the Limits to Growth book. Iraq's Oil: The Greatest Prize Of All In this post I'll outline why I believe that Iraq probably has the world's largest oil reserves - or, as Daniel Yergin once said of the middle east, it is "the greatest single prize in all history". Natural Gas In Australia - How Long Will It Last? In this post I have a look at how much gas Australia has and how long it will last under a variety of scenarios. Coal Seam Gas In Australia In this post I look at recent events in the gas industry and what they mean for Australian gas production in future. The Hydrogen Economy and Peak Platinum A comprehensive review of the issues involved in the "hydrogen economy". Hubbert: King Of The Technocrats In this post I explore the Technocracy movement and Hubbert's role in it. Locabucks: Are local currencies a way to escape the liquidity trap? I look at the concept of local currencies (or "locabucks" as I'm now dubbing them), an idea which has its roots in the Great Depression as a mechanism for escaping the liquidity trap - and thus might be relevant again in the not-too distant future if present trends continue. Terra Preta: Biochar and the MEGO Effect In this post I have a look at modern day techniques to produce terra preta (often called biochar or agrichar) which have the potential to increase soil fertility, generate energy and sequester carbon all at the same time. Buckminster Fuller's Critical Path A review of Buckminster Fuller's last work, Critical Path. Is It Time For a 4 Day Working Week? In this post I look at various proposals to reduce the amount of time we spend at work, as a way of addressing energy, environmental and other issues facing us. Peak Oil And The Tea Party Movement In this post I have a look at the boost this (peak oil) is likely to give to populist politics and some of the possibilities for addressing this. Read more posts by Big Gav Back to the top Prof. Goose A Pretty Stunning Graph of World Cement Production (and China is Certainly Using It) This post updates Stuart's post about this two years ago (and yes, it's still a graph that will blow you away!) with two more years of USGS cement data, 2006 and 2007. From the Editor's Desk: Peak Oil, Heretical Thought, Complexity, and the Future of The Oil Drum Lately, I have been thinking a lot about the direction of The Oil Drum. Much of my thinking on this set of ideas has been brought about by some soul-searching, trying to understand the problems we face as a community, and then figuring out how to "positively push the future." Peak Oil, Persuasion, and the World Meme What insights can we claim from psychology to get those we care about, and even those we don't, to dig deeper to get to an understanding of the pillars of the problems we face, instead of trying to buy aluminum siding for a house slowly falling in on itself? Will Canada Fuel Fortress America? Will Canada complacently allow the US to pillage her resources as energy supplies become more scarce? Why the US Political System Is Unable to React to Peak Oil: Institutions I thought I would bring some pieces of the political puzzle together into a post on why I believe the US, at least at the federal level, will be overly slow to react to the problems of peak oil in both the short and long term. Was That Really Five Years? A summary and some thoughts about the fifth year of the Oil Drum's existence. The Oil Drum Celebrates Its First Year Today Read more posts by Prof. Goose (Real name, Kyle Saunders) Back to the top Nate Hagens The Psychological and Evolutionary Roots of Resource Consumption A (longish) exploration of how our evolved neural wetware predisposes us to compete for status and also allows us to be hijacked by novelty items/activities, many of which use alot of energy. A Net Energy Parable: Why is ERoEI Important? A story about how energy return on investment impacts an imaginary society of Sasquatches - highlighting the importance of biohpysical metrics for a civilization. Peak Oil: A View from Planet Talos An alien perspective on the resource depletion/human nature intersection. Living for the Moment While Devaluing the Future An examination of why we have evolved mechanisms to steeply favor the present over the future and why this is relevant to questions of resource depletion and environmental problems. Peak Oil - Whom to Believe CERAiously-Part 1 Highlights of the main differences between the energy cornucopians and those predicting a near term peak in oil production. Peak Oil - Why Smart Folks Disagree Part 2 More detail on the above post on supply side differences between energy optimists and realists. Peak Oil - Believe it or Not - Part 3 An overview of human cognitive biases that contribute to disagreement on resource depletion/climate change. Can We Be Happy Using Less Energy? Uhh Yes! An look at decreasing returns to more consumtion. Old Sunlight vs Ancient Sunlight - An Analysis of Home Heating and Wood Measuring the scale of US standing forest relative to US fossil fuel use for heat. ".......Dammit - We Wasted a Day of Sunlight" Peak Oil, IHS Data and The Broken Clock Peak Oil and Reflexivity and Peak Oil Soros theory of reflexivity, in light of oil depletion. Hedge Funds, Hurricanes and Energy Markets An overview of volatility and the small size of energy markets relative to financial capital. The 2008 IEA WEO Review (#1 in a Series) The first in a series examining the claims of the IEA annual energy report. Advice to Obama (#2) Yes We Can But Will We? A letter to the new President, outlining biophysical (supply) and evolutionary (demand) type thinking. Campfire What Do We Tell Our Children A letter I wrote to an 8 year old boy who asked about oil running out. I Don't Know A short piece looking at why we are so confident, even when we know very little. I Dream of GINI - Wealth Inequality During Resource Depletion Peak Oil, Peak Credit and Investments - So What the Hell Does One Do? An initial pass at rewriting the Capital Asset Pricing Model assumptions Whither The Oil Drum? An introspection on the purpose of sites like this, when the meme of peak oil has been generally accepted. Enter the Elephant A look at why facts matter very little in changing peoples behavior. 2010: The Year for Making ContactNew Years resolutions for myself, in light of current conditions. Dear Candidate-What Will You Do if Growth is Over? Read more posts by Nate Hagens Back to the top Phil Hart Meet Trev: A two-seater renewable energy vehicle I believe there is instead a bright future for a spectrum of 'micro' electric vehicles, from battery powered bicycles up to compact size cars, including this new concept car named Trev (Two-seater Renewable Energy Vehicle). International Energy Agency calls 'Peak' on OECD Oil Demand In World Energy Outlook 2009, the International Energy Agency seems to have dropped a bombshell that has been quietly (and politely) ignored. The Economics of Volatile Oil Prices Considering the fundamental nature of oil supply and demand provides a coherent explanation not just for the rapid rise in oil prices, but also the dramatic fall. The 2008 IEA WEO - Oil Reserves and Resources Despite significant changes, the 2008 IEA report still relies on inflated estimates of reserves from OPEC countries, overplays the contribution of reserves growth due to technology and predicts the reversal of a decades long trend of declining oil discoveries. Oil, House Prices, Credit? Three parts of the same story The long forgotten 'oil crisis' of just a few months ago has been replaced by a full blown 'credit crisis' - related events that represent the unravelling of half a century of unsustainable trends in oil consumption and debt. High-Tech Hitchhiking Could a hitchhiking scheme for the iPhone era work in practice and change attitudes to hitching a ride? How Technology Increases Oil Production How can you double something and still have ten times less than you started with? The answer to this question will help us reassess claims that advances in oil field technology will postpone the peak in global oil production. Oil Reserves: Where Ghawar goes, the rest of OPEC follows In May 2007, the work of Stuart Staniford and Euan Mearns culminated in a new and unprecedented assessment of oil reserves in Ghawar, the world's largest oil field. This article combines their assessment with additional information sources, to produce a revised estimate of reserves in Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC countries. Read more posts by Phil Hart Back to the top Rembrandt Koppelaar Carbon Capture and Storage: Economic Costs Revisited The effects on coal power plant economics of CO2 emissions capture. Carbon Capture and Storage: Energy Costs Revisited The effects on coal power plant economics of CO2 emissions capture. A primer on reserve growth part 1 What is reserve growth and why it is so difficult to measure? A primer on reserve growth part 2 A summary of various reserve growth studies. A primer on reserve growth part 3 A discussion on the reserve growth figures in the USGS World Petroleum Assessment 2000. Are Reserves of the Largest US Coal Field Overstated by 50%? A summary of the USGS 2009 reserve assessment of the largest U.S. coal field, Gilette in Wyoming. Read more posts by Rembrandt Koppelaar Back to the top Rune Likvern Europe and Natural Gas - Are Tough Choices Ahead? In this post, I present some graphs showing European historical natural gas consumption and supply, along with my estimates of future consumption and supply. Trends in World Oil Supply/Consumption and Net Exports/Imports In this post I briefly present the results from my analysis of absolute and relative trends in world oil (all liquids) supply, consumption, net exports and net imports between 1980 and 2009. Has OECD oil consumption peaked? I examine similarities and differences in oil consumption patterns of OECD and Non-OECD countries and offer my view as to what the future may hold. IEA WEO 2008 - NGLs to the Rescue? In this post, I will document that there is good reason to believe that the IEA WEO 2008 projections in the reference scenario overshoots the likely world production of NGLs by as much as 35 - 50 % by 2030. Has Fossil Fuel Consumption Within EU Peaked? As this post will show the likelihood that the EU's fossil fuel consumption has peaked, back in 1979, is now very real. It will also compare the degree of net fossil fuel self-sufficiency between the EU and the USA as of 2007. Why UK Natural Gas Prices Will Move North of 100p/Therm This Winter This post presents the development of the energy mix for the UK, and how the UK in less than a decade went from being a substantial energy exporter to a substantial net energy importer. Read more posts by Rune Likvern Back to the top Euan Mearns Lies, Damned Lies and Government Oil Production Forecasts? Back in 2005 the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) forecast 2.84 mbpd oil production in Norway during 2009. I pointed out their forecast was rather optimistic. 2.3 mbpd was what actually came to pass. The NPD were 23% too high. The architecture of UK offshore oil production in relation to future production models This post, written in November 2006 provided a forecast for UK oil production employing bottom up and top down methodology. My forecast for UK oil production in 2009 was 1.53 mbpd. 1.45 mbpd was what actually came to pass. I was 6% too high. Flesh on the bones of Mexican oil production With Cantarell in free fall, this post tried to take a more holistic view of Mexican oil production, pointing out that nitrogen once destined for Cantarell would now be diverted and injected into neighboring Ku-Maloob-Zaap complex. Saudi production laid bare This post was written to counter Stuart Staniford who claimed "Oil production peaked in Saudi Arabia in 2005. Recent sharp declines in production are involuntary and Saudi Arabia has switched from swing producer to supply constrained producer." GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 1 - background and methodology) GHAWAR: an estimate of remaining oil reserves and production decline (Part 2 - results) Ghawar reserves update and revisions (1) Estimates of the remaining reserves and future production in Ghawar, the worlds largest oil field, based on data gleaned from the internet by a host of eager bloggers. Crisis, what energy crisis? An overview of the best posts from the 12 months preceding July 2007. UK Energy Security A look at possible impacts of UK oil and gas production decline together with a range of appropriate energy policy responses. Saudi Arabia - production forecasts and reserves estimates An oil production forecast for Saudi Arabia using both bottom up and top down (Hubbert linearisation) techniques. Peak was forecast to be 2011. The European Gas Market A comprehensive look at where Europe gets its natural gas from (34 charts and maps) including forecasts that incorporate peak Norwegian gas production and decline of the supergiant gas field at Groningen in Holland. Daddy, will the lights be on at Christmas? A follow up to the European Gas market incorporating a forecast for Norwegian gas production produced by Rune Likvern. Why oil costs over $120 per barrel An examination of some of the fundamental causes of the run in oil prices that took place in 2008. Why oil costs over $130 per barrel: the decline of North Sea Oil An overview of North Sea oil production decline and its role in the oil price run of 2008. A State of Emergency An examination of the plunge in UK oil and gas production and its impact on the UK economy ahead of the 2008 crash. The Global Energy Crisis and its Role in the Pending Collapse of the Global Economy The slides I presented at a talk to the Royal Society of Chemists in Aberdeen, November 2008. The energy efficiency of energy procurement systems An overview of the energy return on a number of energy procurement systems together with a look at contradictory policies being pursued by OECD governments. The energy efficiency of cars A simple look at the energy efficiency of various vehicle propulsion systems including all electric, internal combustion, fuel cells and bio fuel. The financial return on energy invested An experimental examination of links between energy production, consumption, prices and GDP. The Chinese Coal Monster An examination of the phenomenal growth in Chinese coal production and consumption. How long can this go on? Read more posts by Euan Mearns Back to the top David Murphy EROI, Insidious Feedbacks, and the End of Economic Growth In this post I attempt to answer the following question: Is a return to long term economic growth possible? The True Value of Energy is the Net Energy "The true value of energy to society is the net energy, which is that after the energy costs of getting and concentrating that energy are subtracted." - H.T. Odum (1973) Energy Transitions and the Next Paradigmatic Image of the World The most important question is "what is the next paradigmatic image of the world?" The Net Hubbert Curve, what does it mean? Cutler Cleveland of Boston University has reported that the EROI of oil and gas extraction in the U.S. has decreased from 100:1 in the 1930's to 30:1 in the 1970's to roughly 11:1 as of 2000. What does this mean? Further Evidence of the Influence of Energy on the US economy Gail, Jeff Rubin, and now James Hamilton of the University of California -- San Diego have produced literature correlating either this financial collapse or recessions more generally with peak oil and oil prices. The take-away message of their work is that oil prices played a fundamental role in causing the current recession and many previous recessions. The Energy Return on Investment Threshold Due to the asymptotic nature of the curve at high EROIs, extraction/conversion processes with EROIs below 8 result in vastly different flows of net energy than those with higher EROIs. Read more posts by David Murphy Back to the top Heading Out Heading Out has written a long series of articles under the title of Tech Talks, running on Sundays. These recently deal with oil and gas resource availability in various parts of the world. Earlier, the articles dealt with techniques for extraction of oil and gas. After the Deepwater Horizon blow out, he wrote a series of articles dealing with the approaches to sealing the well. Link to a listing of posts by Heading Out. (Real name, Dave Summers) Back to the top Jérôme à Paris Ukraine vs Russia: Tales of pipelines and dependence I wrote the text below in late December 2005, i.e. just before the Russian-Ukrainian gas conflict, which had been simmering for a few weeks, blew open into the consciousness of the West. New Iraqi oil law: some facts on PSAs A post refuting some assertions about the new Iraqi oil law, which will allow foreign companies to invest in the oil sector via PSAs (production sharing agreements). A review of the underlying fundamentals of nuclear energy A review of the pros and cons of the nuclear industry. How To Get A Pipeline Built A primer on why and how pipelines get built - which essentially means how they get financed. Countdown to $200 oil meets Anglo Disease Oil has played a fascinating side role in my Anglo Disease series, allowing the debt bubble to go on for much longer than expected. But now, instead, it is accelerating the crash. Let me take you through the whole cycle. Fierce pride - yes it works! (or, first ever bank-financed offshore wind farm inaugurated!) A post about the windfarm which I helped finance two years ago which is now up and running. Countdown to $200 oil: $140 oil and speculation There are A LOT of good reasons why oil prices are going up. Let me show you just a few. The cost of wind, the price of wind, the value of wind In this post I try to clear some of the confusion that surrounds the economics of wind power, as this is an issue that is often used by the opponents of wind to dismiss it. Read more posts by Jérôme à Paris Back to the top Engineer-Poet Sustainability, Energy Independence and Agricultural Policy. If we are going to use biofuels, we need to re-think everything involved with them; the results may not look like anything we've ever seen. One engineer's advice for energy policy. An open letter to Obama on the path the country should take. H2CAR: Another blind alley We can make enough biofuel to replace oil, but at a price we cannot pay; this is NOT a solution. The Cogeneration Stopgap Generating electricity along with heat can stretch fuel supplies and bridge to the future. Energetics of cultivation: draft animals vs. combustion engines and the Haber process Tractors are more efficient than horses, and we don't have to breed or train them. Analysis of the Hon. John Dingell's carbon-tax proposal Talking back to a Washington insider who kept Detroit in the gas-guzzler business, who I voted against when my city became part of his district, yet who is making some sense. EPA economy ratings vs. the GM Volt: A square peg in a round hole Ruminations on why MPG loses its relevance in a world of watt-hours per mile. Photovoltaics: From Waste to Energy-maker How the dumps of phosphate mining can yield the material to power much of the world. Weathering the storm: making it through a natural-gas crisis. Lifestyle changes which may slash fuel demand by changing habits. Read more posts by Engineer-Poet Back to the top Robert Rapier We Won't Stop Global Warming I lay out the case that there isn't really much we will do to stop the accumulation of CO2 in the atmosphere. Does the Hubbert Linearization Ever Work? Debunking the use of the Hubbert Linearization as a tool for the prediction of peak oil. Peak Oil Interview: Misconceptions, Replacing Oil, and False Solutions An interview I did at that 2010 Global Footprint Network conference that discusses peak oil. What If Gas Cost $100 a Gallon? A thought experiment to see what people might really do in cases of extreme gasoline constraints. A Critical Examination of Matt Simmons' Claims on the Deepwater Spill Debunking hyperbolic comments related to the deepwater spill. The Switch to Winter Gasoline and a Primer on Gasoline Blends Every year in late summer, you will start hearing references in the media about the conversion to winter gasoline. So what does this mean, and why does it make gasoline less expensive? The Price of Energy Just looking at the cost per BTU of many different energy sources. Sparking some interesting discussion. The Case for Higher Gas Taxes (and Lower Income Taxes) I make my case for why it would make sense to shift taxes from income to consumption of fossil fuels. Ethanol Blend E85 Case Study: Iowa Examines the question of why Iowa should use their own ethanol instead of exporting it. The Next Five Years: Peak Lite and the Current Oil Picture Seeking to explain why I think peak oil consequences would start to happen before peak oil. Refining 201: The Assay Essay Explaining what products are produced from crude oil, and how that relates to the assay of the crude. Why Not Nuclear Power? Exploring the case for expanded nuclear power. The Future is Solar Why I think solar power has to play a more important role in the future. Cellulosic Ethanol vs. Biomass Gasification Just explaining the difference in the two technologies that have seen the borderlines between them blurred. German Military Study Warns of Potential Energy Crisis A translation of major points from the Bundeswehr report. Read more posts by Robert Rapier Back to the top Luis de Sousa World Oil Exports: A Comprehensive Projection This article is a first simplistic (but comprehensive) assessment of World Oil Exports, here defined as the total amount of liquid hydrocarbons that are surpluses in producing countries. World Oil Exports [00] Introduction A 2008 update on the original 2006 assessment. World Oil Exports [01] Angola The next post in the series focussing specifically on Angola's oil reserves. World Oil Exports [02] Libya Same as above except Libya this time. A New Energy Policy for Europe Wednesday the European Commission released a series of Communications proposing a new revolutionary Energy Policy attempting to address EU's energy challenges for the XXI century. This is a set of first comments to such proposals. Dialoguing with Dr. Peter Jackson of CERA: Is the Future of Oil Resources Secure? Some reflections follow regarding Dr. Jackson's arguments and understanding of the Hubbert's Peak. From sweet on the table to fuel in the tank: the millenary history of Sugar Cane A dive into the fascinating history of a plant that shaped the World. Marchetti's Curves This is a brief account of the Energy Substitution Model developed by Cesare Marchetti in the 1970s at IIASA. A few more thoughts on Saudi and HL There has been some discussion about how to apply the Hubbert Linearization (HL) to Saudi historical production in recent weeks at TOD. Trying not to fall into redundancy, let me have some loose thoughts on these models. Olduvai revisited 2008 This work tries to assess how the decline of Conventional Fossil Fuels may unfold and how can Mankind avoid the Road that may take us back to the Olduvai Gorge. IEA WEO 2008 - Fossil Fuel Ultimates and CO2 Emissions Scenarios An assessment of the WEO climate change statistics, co-authored with Euan Mearns. Energy Policy: SER-2 This log entry is the first of a series that will try to build a critical but constructive review of this crucial element of future Energy Policy in Europe. SER-2 [02] Memo on the Security and Solidarity Action Plan In the second installment of this series analysing the Second Strategic Energy Review (SER-2) by the European Commission, the focus is on to the Memo entitled "EU Energy Security and Solidarity Action Plan". SER-2 [03] Communication of the Security and Solidarity Action Plan This post tries to highlight important aspects that aren't referenced in the Memo and presents the implementation steps proposed by the Commission to put the Plan into practice. Planning for Europe's Energy Future: My Submission to the Commission's 2010 Consultation on Energy This document is a response to the Energy Consultation launched by the European Commission in the first half of 2010. This consultation is part of a process that shall take the Commission to a new Energy Policy Programme a few years from now. Interview with Jean Laherrère Some comments on the general Fossil Fuels depletion picture and our future beyond them. Read more posts by Luis de Sousa Back to the top Stuart Staniford 4%, 11%, Who the Hell Cares? A very early piece pointing out that the post-peak decline rate is really the critical variable in assessing the seriousness of peak oil - much more important than the date or height of peak, or the degree of warning of peak. This piece still seems pretty good to me. Hubbert Theory says Peak is Slow Squeeze. The first piece I wrote looking at the evidence that the post peak decline rate will probably be slow, rather than rapid. The Auto Efficiency Wedge A piece looking at the fact that at slow decline rates, it's reasonably forseeable that peak oil can be handled by ongoing efficiency improvements (not painlessly, but without complete disaster) Depletion Levels in Ghawar A major forensic analysis of the state of oil depletion in the Ghawar field of Saudi Arabia, suggesting that Saudi official oil reserve figures are over-optimistic. US Peak Oil Adaptation: Prognosis in a Credit Crunch Rather prescient piece from 2007 discussing the possibility that the credit crunch could collapse oil prices and slow adaptation to peak oil. This turned out to be pretty much what happened. Fermenting the Food Supply An argument against continued growth in biofuel consumption as an alternative to oil, on the grounds that the implications for food prices are likely to be very problematic. The Fallacy of Reversibility This piece argued that there is no evidence for the idea that peak oil will lead to a revival of local non-industrial agriculture. The reverse seems more likely - that industrial agriculture is being and will be strengthened by high oil prices. Powering Civilization to 2050 The first of three posts laying out a scenario for how we could get to a fairly close to carbon neutral civilization by 2050, without major collapse or disaster (if I was in charge in of the world). This post looked at energy, and argued that extrapolating the learning curve of solar power, it was possible to see energy becoming cheap again by 2050, based primarily on solar. Four Billion Cars in 2050? Second of the "2050" series: Guesstimates on how many cars there might be by 2050, and how they might be powered. Food to 2050 The third in the "2050" series: Whether there are likely to be limitations on feeding the world's population to 2050 in a cautiously optimistic scenario. Read more posts by Stuart Staniford Back to the top Jeff Vail Theory of Geopolitical Disruptions to Oil Supply Discusses several non-geological feedback loops that may have a dramatic impact on the course of resource depletion. Mexico, A Nation-State Dissolves Addresses the geopolitical instability in Mexico as a potential bellwether for the Nation-State structure generally, and its potential impact on oil production and exports. The Problem of Growth How the fundamental structure of our civilization demands perpetual growth and is therefore inherently unsustainable, as well as potential structural solutions. Oil Demand Destruction and Brittle Systems Argues that demand destruction tends to make remaining demand less elastic, and therefore makes systems more brittle and vulnerable to future supply shocks. Predator-Prey Dynamics in Oil Prices Argues that oil demand, supply, and prices can be modeled similar to predator-prey systems in nature. A series of posts on the potential for suburbia post-peak. A Resilient Suburbia? 1: Sunk Cost & Credit Markets A Resilient Suburbia? 2: Cost of Commuting A Resilient Suburbia? 3: Weighing the Potential for Self-Sufficiency A Resilient Suburbia 4: Accounting for the Value of Decentralization The Renewables Gap Discussion of the challenges of a societal transition to renewable sources of energy, and especially the "gap" between the beginning of massive investment and the beginning of significant levels of renewable energy generation. Read more posts by Jeff Vail Back to the top Chris Vernon Will Wartime Mobilisation Address Peak Oil? A look at Lester Brown's call for wartime mobilisation. Nuclear Britain Reviews the history and future of civilian nuclear power in Britain. Climate Change -- an alternative approach Rather than attempting to reduce emissions be reducing demand, can the same be achieved by limiting fossil fuel production? Jonathon Porritt: Peak Oil and Climate Change Prominent environmentalist brings together these two issues. Goodbye Helium, Goodbye Brainscans Non-Renewable resource scarcity, the case of Helium. Read more posts by Chris Vernon Back to the top Some Notable Guest Posts Cutler Cleveland - Energy Transitions Past and Future Herman Daly: Towards a Steady State Economy Herman Daly on the Credit Crisis, Financial Assets, and Real Wealth Jay Hanson: America 2.0 Walter Youngquist: Unique Times -- and the Future Christopher Smith: Aviation and Oil Depletion Nick Rouse: Will Nuclear Fusion Fill the Gap Left by Peak Oil? Dave Pollard: It's Our Turn to Eat: How Politics Works and Why Activism is So Important Lester R. Brown: The Oil Intensity of Food Alan Drake: Multiple Birds -- One Silver BB: A synergistic set of solutions to multiple issues focused on Electrified Railroads Debbie Cook: How Will Local Governments Respond to Large Increases in Energy Bills? Aaron Newton: The Four Day Work Week: Sixteen Reasons Why This Might Be an Idea Whose Time Has Come Glenn Morton: Holding Daniel Yergin and CERA Accountable Michael Vickerman: A federal energy policy: can it happen here? Brad Lancaster - Eight Principles of Successful Rainwater Harvesting Dave Rutledge: The Coal Question and Climate Change Jeffrey J. Brown: The ELP Plan: Economize; Localize & Produce Jean Laherrère: Arctic Oil and Gas Ultimates Jean Laherrère: Hydrates updated Jean Laherrère: Forecasts on Saudi Arabia liquids production Jean Laherrère: Update on US GOM from MMS, EIA and Scout Data Sterling Smith: Energy Vision 2050 Douglas B. Reynolds: Peak oil and the Fall of the Soviet Union: Lessons on the 20th Anniversary of the Collapse Back to the top This list isn't exhaustive nor final but what the authors sent in (and we are still missing a few authors).

Energy Bulletin (peak)

Oil - May 18

-Dump the pump: could peak oil be voluntary? -Shell's Majnoon deal highlights Iraq oil target verdict -Insight - Peak, pause or plummet? Shale oil costs at crossroads read more

ODAC Newsletter - May 18

The prospect of weaker oil demand in the face of the Euro crisis was balanced this week by warnings from the IEA and Saudi Arabia. Sadad al-Husseini, the former head of Exploration and Production at Saudi Aramco, wrote that "$100 for Brent is quite a correction and it will be a challenge to sustain such a low price beyond the short term"... read more

Peak oil notes - May 17

A midweekly roundup of peak oil news, including: -Developments this week read more

Google News

Stagecoach: Green Peak Oil Stock Expanding in North America - Forbes

Stagecoach: Green Peak Oil Stock Expanding in North AmericaForbesIn our new peak oil world of $4 gas and, more and more people are opting for bus travel. The young like it: My girlfriend's daughter travels by bus almost exclusively, even though she owns a car. None of the problems above are likely to get any better.and more »

Peak oil debate is over, and U.S. energy independence will be obtained by 2020. - Examiner.com

Peak oil debate is over, and U.S. energy independence will be obtained by 2020.Examiner.comAmazingly, a growing chorus of analysts are arguing that the peak oil debate is over and the US will soon achieve energy independence. I agree. It is over, and the US will soon achieve energy independence. However, the implications of this are negative ...

Forget Peak Oil, Time To Worry About Peak Oil Labor - The Market Oracle

Forget Peak Oil, Time To Worry About Peak Oil LaborThe Market OracleIn a recent working paper, researchers at the the IMF (International Monetary Fund) attempt to reconcile the Peak Oil debate that whether resource constraints will dictate the future of oil output and prices, or advance in technology motivated by high ...and more »

Oilism

Engineering jobs in oil and gas  

Environmentally Correct Oil Spill Cleanup Solution with Hay & Straw

A perspective on oil and gas  

PeakOil.com

Scraping the bottom of the barrel

Several articles in the international media in recent months have claimed that worries about peak oil -- the peak and decline in yearly world oil production -- are unfounded because vast new reserves of unconventional oil are coming on stream. But a closer look at these new sources of oil casts doubt on this assertion. Data from the US Energy Information Administration show that conventional crude oil production -- oil from wells accessed using typical drilling techniques -- has been essen- tially flat at around 74-million barrels per day (mbpd) since 2005. Looking at the history of con- ventional crude oil discoveries, this is not surprising -- they peaked in the mid-1960s and have been on a declining trend ever since. Since 2005, all liquid fuels production -- which includes natural gas liquids, biofuels, gas-to-liquids and unconventional oil -- has been growing much more slowly than in previous decades -- at less than 1% a year -- while demand in the developing world has burgeoned. The trillion-dollar question is: For how much longer can growth in these unconventional sources of oil offset the declining production from existing conventional fields, estimated by the International Energy Agency to be depleting at about 6.5% each year? There are three types of unconventional oil resources, namely heavy oil, oil sands and oil shale. Heavy oil, which is mostly located in Venezuela's Orinoco belt, is denser and more viscous than conventional oil and requires special extraction and refining techniques. Oil or tar sands -- the bulk of which is located in Canada's Alberta province -- consist of sandstone impregnated with heavy oil. Oil shale, found predominantly in the western US, is oil trapped in shale rock. Technically, recoverable resource estimates for unconventional oil vary widely but are generally very large -- possibly several times the roughly one- trillion barrels of oil consumed globally to date. But, economically, recoverable reserves are substantially smaller than total geological resources. The methods involved in extracting oil from unconventional sources are quite different from those used to extract conventional oil. In the case of shale oil, extraction involves similar hydraulic fracturing processes used to extract natural gas from shale. Oil sands production is a massive surface mining opera- tion, followed by extensive use of natural gas to produce synthetic oil. The hugely capital-intensive nature of these production processes means that marginal production costs -- typically estimated at between $80/bl and $100/bl -- are much higher than those of conventional oil. As the world shifts increasingly from conventional to unconventional oil sources, the floor under market oil prices will continue to rise. The higher production costs reflect the most crucial energy variable of all: the energy return on investment (EROI) ratio, which measures the energy delivered by a process relative to the energy required to find, extract and process the energy resource. Experts estimate the EROI for oil shale and oil sands at about 4:1 at best, compared with a global average for conventional oil of about 18:1 today, and nearly 100:1 in the 1930s. A further downside to unconventional oil is that its environmental impacts are significantly worse than those of regular oil. The freshwater demands are much greater and the carbon dioxide emissions can be up to twice as high for each barrel of oil. Fracking and oil sands production also pollute freshwater sources. These environmental costs are largely externalised, that is, the public pays for it indirectly. Returning to peak oil -- the key issue is the flow rate, that is, how much oil can be brought to market in a given year. There are economic and physical constraints on how much oil can be extracted from low-EROI, high-cost unconventional oil reserves, arising from the highly capital-intensive nature of this business. Several peer-reviewed articles in academic journals have shown that the depletion of older, conventional-oil fields will soon outpace the gains from new unconventional oil sources. Chris Skrebowski, consultant editor of the UK-based Petroleum Review and director of Peak Oil Con- sulting, maintains a large database of current and forthcoming oil pro- jects. His latest forecast is that global spare oil capacity will be exhausted by 2015. After that, we are looking at a long downhill slide for total world liquid fuel production. So, while there will be plenty of investment in unconventional oil sources, it will not materially change the peak oil phenomenon -- at best, it will delay the date of the global peak of all liquids by a few years. And the switch to unconventional oil is setting a triple-digit floor to international oil prices, thereby putting brakes on global economic growth. The bottom line is that the peak oil challenge has not gone away. If we do not intentionally wean our civilisation off oil quickly, we face increasingly severe economic shocks as well as intensifying climate destabilisation and environmental degradation as we burn dirtier fuels. Engineering News

Forget Peak Oil, Time To Worry About Peak Oil Labor

In a recent working paper, researchers at the the IMF (International Monetary Fund) attempt to reconcile the Peak Oil debate that whether resource constraints will dictate the future of oil output and prices, or advance in technology motivated by high oil price would eventually provide a solution to more production, as well as higher oil prices.   An economic model was developed incorporating both views, and identified two biggest factors contributing to the recent run-up in oil prices: Relative price insensitivity on the supply side – We have to point out that this IMF observation is partly due to oil production increase/decrease typically significantly lags the oil price movement. “Shocks to excess demand for goods and to demand for oil” due to the recent phenomenal growth from countries like China and India. The paper also gives out this dire warning: “….our prediction of small further increases in world oil production comes at the expense of anear doubling, permanently, of real oil prices over the coming decade. This is uncharted territory for the world economy….” In general, various forecasts by different agencies seem to agree that world oil production will likely continue to have small increases with producers venturing out to exploit the more difficult and challenging formation.   However, what most forecasts as well as the IMF paper did not discuss is the scarce human capital that’s already seriously plaguing the oil industry, which could have serious implication in the future oil production and technology development.   With the aging and retirement of the boomer generations that began their careers in the late 1970s (see chart below), the oil industry is suffering an acute shortage of experienced skilled professionals.   Chart Source: Schlumberger presentation, March 1, 2012   This will only add to the cost of an oil barrel and become very disruptive (see graph below) as oil projects are getting more complex, more difficult and expensive to execute. Chart Source: Schlumberger presentation, March 1, 2012   A separate study by the Petroleum Human Resources Council estimates about 39,000 workers will be needed in Canada along to replace those who are expected to retire before 2020 just to maintain the status quo.  The industry could need as many as 130,000 new hires by the end of the decade with more bullish oil and gas prices.   Already at least one analyst firm is scaling back its drilling activity forecast for 2012, in part because there aren’t enough workers who can drill big, complicated wells.  For now, NES Global Talent sees a depletion of skilled workers in oil and gas fields in the United States, Great Britain and Australia, three of the busiest oil and gas regions, will become a major problem.   Schlumberger, the largest oilfield services company in the world, sees significant negative effect from peak oil labor manifesting by 2015, a short three years from now, with increasing inexperienced oil professionals, and that the talent problem will only get worse.   For now, most forecasts expect crude prices would remain high in 2012, mostly due to the Iran tension.  Meanwhile, OPEC just revised its 2012 world oil demand outlook slightly upwards citing a stable US economy and the shutdown of nuclear plants in Japan.  So if the IMF prediction comes true, it seems the peak oil labor could be just enough to tip the scale for doubling in oil price scenario a lot sooner than year 2022.   The future will not be easy.  ZeroHedge

Australia Seen a Decade Away From Large-Scale Shale Production

Australian shale explorers may be a decade away from producing oil and gas on a large scale because of obstacles ranging from a lack of drilling equipment to higher labor and infrastructure costs, Wood Mackenzie Ltd. said. "The only factor that could change that significantly is if there's a liquids-rich play that really drove the need to rapidly bring in the rigs," Andrew McManus, the Sydney-based vice president of Australasia energy consulting at Wood Mackenzie, said in an interview. "Then you can see the value proposition and would want to fast-track that." Projects focusing on higher-priced oil and liquids may earn better returns and reach production faster, according to Wood Mackenzie and ConocoPhillips. (COP) In the U.S., the largest producer of the fuel, a supply glut has caused gas prices to slump and forced companies including BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) and Royal Dutch Shell Plc to focus on extracting petroleum liquids. "If you have liquids the economics are much, much better right now than a pure gas play that will take longer from an infrastructure standpoint," Todd Creeger, president of ConocoPhillips's Australian unit, said in a May 15 interview. Energy companies will need to invest billions of dollars on projects to extract oil and gas trapped in Australian shale formations following about $600 million of commitments from companies including Conoco, Mitsubishi Corp. (8058) and Hess Corp. (HES), McManus from Wood Mackenzie said. Santos Ltd. (STO), Beach Energy Ltd. (BPT) and Buru Energy Ltd. (BRU) are among explorers holding pieces of an estimated 400 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale-gas resources in Australia, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Australian Basins The Cooper Basin straddling the borders of South Australia and Queensland states, the Georgina Basin in the country's north and the Canning Basin in the west are shale regions with liquids potential, according to Wood Mackenzie. ConocoPhillips, the third-largest U.S. oil company, is interested in further shale investments in Australia following a partnership last year with Perth-based New Standard Energy Ltd. (NSE), according to Creeger. In the Canning, "we know there are liquids in the system, which is one thing we think will be key to the pace at which Australia develops shale," Creeger said in Adelaide. Oil in New York increased 9 percent from a year earlier to average $103.03 a barrel in the first quarter. Natural gas plunged 40 percent in the quarter compared with a year earlier to average $2.503 per million British thermal units. Crude oil fell 0.3 percent to $92.56 a barrel yesterday, while natural gas declined 0.9 percent to $2.594 per million Btu. Rigs, Pipelines Australian shale explorers face a number of challenges, including the lack of rigs, the remote location of their projects and insufficient pipeline networks, McManus said. Hydraulic fracturing, in which water, sand and chemicals are pumped into the ground to break apart shale rock and release fossil fuels, has made the U.S. the largest natural-gas producer. The drilling technique, known as fracking, has drawn criticism from regulators and landowners concerned about water contamination and has been banned in France and Bulgaria. The Obama administration earlier this month issued a proposed rule requiring disclosure of the chemicals used in the process when fracturing for oil and gas occurs on public lands. Bloomberg

Aleklett Energy Mix

Försäljning av Peeking at Peak Oil

Under några veckor har Amazon felaktigt försökt att sälja en paperback version av vår bok Peeking at Peak Oil men nu är felet tillrättat. Nu finns det bara en möjlighet men man anger felaktigt att boken skall komma ut den 30 juni då det i verkligheten är den 30 maj då ASPO-konferensen i Wien börjar (läs om boken på Amazon). De som förbeställt den felaktigt saluförda boken har nu fått meddelande om att man kan förbeställa den riktiga boken. Varje bok som säljs skall tillhöra en viss kategori av böcker. Vad det gäller Peekning at Peak Oil så har den följande indelningen: Geologi (Geology) som är en underavdelning till geovetenskap (Earth Sciences), som i sin tur är en underavdelning av professionell vetenskap (Professional Sciences). Varje timma gör Amazon en uppdatering av den aktuella försäljningen av nyligen utkomna och böcker som just skall komma ut. Ni förstår säkert att jag följer den listan med stort intresse. Då detta skrivs är det följande placeringar: Geology #1 (take a look how it is just now) Earth Sciences # 8 (take a look how it is just now) Professional Science # 54 (take a look how it is just now) Det känns fantastiskt att se dessa försäljningsplaceringar två veckor innan boken kommer ut.

Translating 'Peeking at Peak Oil'

On "ON LINE opinion", Australia's e-journal of social and political debate, Michael Lardelli has written an essay about his involvement in my book "Peeking at Peak Oil". Thank you Michael for your enthusiasm and help. In the acknowledgement to the book you can read: Work on this book began in November 2010 when Michael Lardelli, Olle Qvennerstedt and I got together in Australia at what we called "Camp Peak Oil Adelaide". The fact that Michael had been a postdoctoral scientist in Sweden for six years and had learnt Swedish meant that I could write in my mother tongue and so concentrate on the book's contents. As a scientist he was able to elegantly interpret my descriptions of our research into English. I would never have signed the contract with the publisher, Springer, if I had not had Michael with me. When I say thank you there is a great deal more behind the words than gratitude. (About Michael Lardelli´s research) Translating 'Peeking at Peak Oil' Michael Lardelli The leader of the world’s foremost Peak Oil research group is Kjell Aleklett, Professor of Physics at the University of Uppsala in Sweden. He has just published a book on Peak Oil that summarises a decade of scientific research. Kjell’s book is truly remarkable but not only as an unparalleled analysis of the reality and implications of Peak Oil. The book is also a unique example of how art can be used to assist the understanding of science. For these reasons I believe Kjell’s book will soon be recognised both as the definitive work on Peak Oil and also as a unique scientific text. I simply do not see how it can be surpassed -- unless there is another person who is willing to devote a decade of their life to building up a research enterprise that has now published over 30 peer-reviewed scientific papers on Peak Oil and related issues. Of course, there is no other person than Kjell. Somehow my name has wound up on the cover of Kjell’s book and that deserves an explanation. When Kjell lectures to his university students or at oil and energy conferences or is interviewed by the media he speaks English. If you search for his name on YouTube you will find numerous examples. So why would Kjell need a “translator”. It’s a longish story…. On 18 May 2007 the world’s leading “clearing house” website for peak oil and related news -- Energy Bulletin – published an article by Kjell titled, “Global warming exaggerated, insufficient oil, natural gas and coal”. I was absolutely fascinated by the idea that the world’s accessible fossil fuel resources might be insufficient to allow for the dramatic global warming scenarios that many sincere and rigorous climate change researchers were warning us could happen. I wanted to see this information more widely understood in Australia and the Australian-based website, Online Opinion, seemed a suitable place to start. (it is frequented by a number of politicians, political advisors and journalists.) However, the quality of the English in the article was less than ideal and I did not want that to act as an excuse for sceptical readers to dismiss its content. The Energy Bulletin article was actually a translation by Kjell of a more detailed article published in Sweden’s leading broadsheet newspaper, Dagens Nyheter. Now it just so happens that I had previously lived for six years in Sweden and had learned the language -- or at least enough of it to understand a broadsheet newspaper. More importantly, I am a scientist and I know how scientists think. In scientific writing accuracy and clarity are paramount. A scientific text should not be open to multiple possible interpretations. English may be the common language of science but it is also a slippery beast whose words are rife with double meanings and innuendo. It is not trivial for a non-native speaker of English to compose a precise and powerful scientific argument in this language. This is particularly so when the audience mostly has no scientific training. Explanations must be stated simply but without sacrificing accuracy. So I emailed Kjell and asked him whether I could post a new translation of the article on the Online Opinion website. He agreed and after he had approved my translation it was posted on Online Opinion on 5 June. It became one of their most accessed articles ever. As far back as the second half of 2007 Kjell was thinking about writing a book so he next tested my abilities with translation of a possible chapter. At that I time I don’t believe he was contemplating a reworking of his scientific papers to make them accessible to a wider, non-scientist public. He was thinking more of descriptions of his experiences travelling the world to spread awareness of Peak Oil to politicians, corporate leaders and the like. That book never eventuated (although much of what it might have been can now be found in Peeking at Peak Oil). Instead, Kjell’s energies were diverted into writing a blog -- Aleklett’s Energy Mix -- and shortly after he began he asked if I wished to translate it. Once again a better quality of English makes the contents of Kjell’s blog less easily dismissed by sceptics. I have now been translating Kjell’s blog for almost 5 years. This is done at night, after work when my young children are finally asleep and there is time to think. The reward I receive for this is the work itself -- second languages are definitely “use it or lose it” affairs. Having put a lot of work into learning Swedish I would rather not lose it even though I now live on the other side of the world from Sweden. Translating Kjell’s blog also gives me insight into events at the very frontline of the struggle between the scientists who warn of peak oil and the government and corporate elites who most definitely do not want to talk about it. (If a politician admits that Peak Oil is an issue then they will be expected to do something about it -- but there are no easy or popular “solutions”.) Nevertheless, I sometimes wonder how many words I have written by now and how many books Kjell’s collected English blogs might fill. Scientific research takes time. It can take years to find funding, then recruit students and then to do the research work before one can publish. When I began translating for Kjell in 2007 he had published only two peer-reviewed articles in scientific journals on Peak Oil issues. However, by late 2010 (when work on Peeking at Peak Oil began) this had surged to 19 articles and the total currently stands at 31 with several more “accepted” but not yet in print. In mid-2010 Kjell told me he was thinking of a new book project that would summarise the published work of his research group. He told me he had recruited his friend of many years Olle Qvennerstedt to provide illustrations for the book and that he had in mind something rather special -- a book that would be a true fusion of science and art. He would come to Australia for three months in late 2010 to tour and to begin working on the book. While somewhat nervous at the amount of work involved I agreed to the task and Kjell and Olle spent November at “Camp Peak Oil Adelaide” putting together the first chapters of Peeking a Peak Oil. Originally it was planned to complete the work by March 2011 but that was certainly a much too optimistic future production scenario! Peeking at Peak Oil production would take at least a year longer. Throughout 2011 Kjell sent me chapters to translate but he did not work on them in the order you will find them in the book. It was only when the publisher’s typesetter sent us “proofs” of the book to check for errors in April this year that I read all the chapters in their final order for the first time. I was struck by two things. First, the book had an internal coherence I had not appreciated previously. Second, the book is over 350 pages long and I was surprised at how much I had translated over the previous 18 months! The task had not seemed so overwhelming when broken down into small parts. Translation is not a word-for-word affair. If it was then any computer could do it. So when Kjell wrote his draft chapters in Swedish he gave me a fair amount of leeway in translating them into English. Sometimes I reorganised the flow of ideas a little if I thought it added to clarity. But Kjell always had the final say and it is completely his book. The reason I am not cited as the translator on the front cover of Peeking at Peak Oil is the publisher, Springer. Since there was no pre-existing Swedish book from which Peeking at Peak Oil was translated the publisher thought that “translated by” was inappropriate. But when you pick up this book do not think for one moment that “Kjell Aleklett with Michael Lardelli” means I have made any theoretical contribution to it. It is Kjell’s (and Olle’s) baby. Incidentally, there is now a Swedish version of the book and I am pleased to say it is a translation from my English text. A Spanish translation is also being prepared. When Kjell and Olle packed up Camp Peak Oil Adelaide and prepared to return to Sweden they held a party. Since it was a very Swedish party speeches were in order. I had two things to say. To Kjell it was how I thought (and still think) that his research is immensely important for our future and it is a privilege to be able to help him get the message out. To Olle I expressed my admiration for his artwork and how it adds so much to the book. The one word that best describes Olles illustrations is “friendly”. Peak Oil can be a very confronting topic for many people but Olle’s drawings are a little like the words “Don’t Panic” on the cover of The Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy. They are reassuring and make Peeking at Peak Oil so much more attractive to read. Peak Oil will affect every one of us and so everyone must find their own way to contribute to a “solution”. Doing what I can to help Kjell’s message be heard is my small part in this effort. Peeking at Peak Oil shows us the limits of our future reality -- what can happen and what will not. It is then up to each and every one of us to do something about it in whatever way we can. In Peeking at Peak Oil, Kjell pays tribute to his deceased colleagues, energy investment banker Matt Simmons and former vice-president of the National Iranian Oil Company Dr Ali Samsam Bakhtiari. Like Kjell, their intention always was to help society prepare for the challenges ahead. As Ali Samsam Bakhtiari stated (without the help of a translator) when he visited Australia in 2004, “There are 1,001 solutions already but you have to think about it. You have to study it and see what solutions you can come up, and there is no panacea you know. …. There is small little things in my opinion you can do and when you add these all up, it amounts to quite a lot, but you have also to get ready to live with less oil.”

Peak Oil on Catalyst -- Interview with Kjell Aleklett

In November 2010 we opened "Camp Peak Oil Adelaide" and Michael Lardelli, Olle Qvennerstedt and I gathered there to begin to write the book "Peeking at Peak Oil". Catalyst is Australia's most popular science program on TV and they visited Adelaide to film a segment and to interview me. The interview is now available on YouTube and you can watch it if you wish. (Link to YouTube) Below is the Peak Oil segment on Catalyst in which you can also see our "Camp Peak Oil Adelaide". (Swedish) I november 2010 öppnade vi "Camp Peak Oil Adelaide" och där sammanstrålade Michael Lardelli, Olle Qvennerstedt och jag för att börja skriva boken "Peeking at Peak Oil". Catalyst är Australiens populäraste vetenskapsprogram på TV och man kom till Adelaide för att filma och göra en intervju med mig. Om man vill går det nu att se denna intervju på YouTube. Här är Peak Oil på Catalyst och här kan ni också se vårt “Camp Peak Oil Adelaide”.

OilWatch

Statement of Climate Justice Now! on the outcomes of COP15

for sign-on by 5 January 2010 Organisations and individuals are invited to endorse the statement visit www.climate-justice-now.org (http://www.climate-justice-now.org) Call for “system change not climate change” unites global movement Corrupt Copenhagen ‘accord’ exposes gulf between peoples demands and elite interests The highly anticipated UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen ended with a fraudulent agreement, engineered by the United States and dropped into the conference at the last moment. The "agreement" was not adopted. Instead, it was "noted" in an absurd parliamentary invention designed to accommodate the United States and permit Ban Ki-moon to utter the ridiculous pronouncement "We have a deal."

La historia de la falsas soluciones climáticas

La Historia del Mercado del Carbono http://storyofcapandtrade.org (http://storyofcapandtrade.org/) es una mirada rápida, bien fundamenta, ademas de entretenida, a la principal solución climática que está siendo discutida en Copenhage y en el Capitol Hill. La conductora Annie Leonard presenta a la gente que está en el centro de este esquema –comerciantes de energía y financieros de Wall Street-. Ahí se examinan “los demonios en los detalles” de la actual propuesta de comercio de carbono: permisos gratuitos para grandes contaminadores, falsas compensaciones y distracciones de lo que realmente es requerido para enfrentar la crisis climática. Si tu has escuchado sobre el comercio de carbono pero no estás seguro de cómo funciona (o a quién beneficia), este documental-filme es para tí. Este documental esta hecho al estilo de La historia de las cosas.

Southeast Asian Leaders - Go for Solution Not Delusion!

A Joint Statement, Copenhagen, Denmark, December 14, 2009Copenhagen - 14 December 2009: We, members of Oilwatch Southeast Asiai and Indonesian Civil Society Forum for Climate Justice (CSF) declare our common position and demands on the current climate negotiation in COP 15 UNFCCC Copenhagen. We have witnessed the lack of leadership among industrial countries to significantly cut carbon emission let alone show their responsibility to support developing countries to tackle the impacts of climate change.

Final Energy Crisis

Plazoo

Peak Moment TV

Joel Salatin: Sustainable Farming - Animals Required

April 16, 2012. We taped a great conversation in Chico with Joel Salatin, whose Polyface Farm in Virginia actually builds soil, while raising beef, chickens, turkeys for sale. In 2006 we taped Joel’s a full day of presentations (Holy Cows, Hog Heaven). We were totally inspired by his philosophy, his respect for the animals, his innovative farming practice around what nature does. After our taping today, we joined a huge crowd for Joel’s evening performance from his latest book, Folks This Ain’t Normal: A Farmer’s Advice for Happier Hens, Healthier People and a Better World, where he aims his considerable wit and down-home honesty in a scathing critique of the industrial food system. My extensive notes are below. Thanks to Chris Kerston of Chaffin Family Orchards, our tour guide  in “Innovation Bears Fruit for Family Farm” (episode 162), for fitting us into Joel’s tight schedule.Watch or hear our conversation, “The Straight Poop on Sustainable Farming” (episode 211).  (more…)

Local Soup for a Snowy Day - Living Wild

  I put together a quick egg and lemon soup while Robyn photographed snow falling, dusting the evergreen branches. I thought about how local the ingredients were:   Local: eggs, lemon and cilantro, goat meat (Grass Valley and Oroville). Not local: coconut oil, salt and chicken broth (all west coast of North America, though). In future I’ll make local broth from bones stashed in the freezer — from northern California chicken, beef and goat.   That led me to think of local and indigenous food. The Maidu/Nisenan peoples who once lived in this meadow probably migrated downslope to the Central Valley each winter, packing dried acorns and salmon and venison for the trip. I imagine (but haven’t researched) that in the Valley they’d fish in the Delta, and trap or hunt the sky-darkening flocks of migratory waterfowl and local elk — now mostly gone because civilized humans changed the landscape for agriculture, like building levees which prevent the great flooding of the Valley where the waterfowl wintered over.   The indigenous people used many plants for food, medicine and raw materials. A friend just gave me Living Wild: Gardening, Cooking and Healing with Native Plants of the Sierra Nevada by local authors Alicia Funk of the Living Wild Project and landscape architect Karin Kaufman. This beautifully-designed book shines with loving care and attention to detail. It’s lavishly illustrated with photographs identifying each plant: how to grow it, how it’s used. There are tips on collecting and preserving foods (now I know how to get the wickedly sharp spines off of gooseberries), plus a range of recipes using wild edibles along with familiar ingredients.   The indigenous apothecary is here, too. This contemporary and practical resource preserves native wisdom and entices us to reconnect with the natural beauty and bounty of this unique place on the planet.   So perhaps in fall I’ll make “chocolate marzipan with oak nuts” using freshly-ground acorns. Some ingredients local, some not, just like today’s snowy day soup.

Civilization and the Wild

After two months in “civilization”, our return to Lone Bobcat Woods was welcomed by a delicious snowstorm and cold temperatures which kept the ground white for most of a week, here where snow usually melts off the following day. We gave thanks for fossil fuel as the portable propane tanks kept our “little house” cozy, and thanks for several sunny days generating electricity from the solar panels and stored in the “house” batteries.   We spent the two months parked in Janaia’s mom’s driveway in Tracy, California in the San Joaquin valley east of the Bay Area. We easily biked to shopping and errands several times a week. We enjoyed generous family time, including watching Donaldson family home movies from the 1950s of our water-skiing family. We gleaned pomegranates and grapefruits, while eyeing well-laden lemon, orange and persimmon trees planted by early twentieth-century homeowners in the older section of town.   After a pretty stressful fall, we relaxed into luxuries and amenities not available at the edge of the wild…unlimited electricity and internet. We discovered internet radio stations full of beautiful interesting music, and treated ourselves to a small battery-operated Bose speaker whose sound depth and clarity astound us. We relished quite a few internet movies.   And with that unlimited electricity, we dug into editing the most complex show we’ve produced, Sail Power Reborn - Transporting Local Goods by Boat, episode 208. It stretched our process and our time (about 100 hours between us). We’re proud of the results, but it confirmed our preference for the lighter-production bi-weekly conversations. They let us highlight so many more leading-edge people and projects.     But the suburbs were so, well, domesticated — like the semi-feral cats lined up for the five pm feeding by the “cat woman” next door. We were assaulted by the sounds of suburbia: garbage trucks at 5 am, suburban assault vehicles (SUVs) roaring down the street at all hours, sirens, the blast of mowers and leaf-blowers (may they be forever banned!).   And we missed the wild. After catching our breath in the “comforts and elegancies” of which civilization offers so many, we were drawn back to Lone Bobcat Woods. Syncopated Raven greeted us in his/her castanet-like click language, and a pond full of frogs heralded February. Now we’ll return to our regular Peak Moment TV production schedule, and finish homestead projects before turning towards the next Peak Moment tour in summer.

Twitter

Self Reliance News: Scraping the bottom of the barrel: Several articles in the international media in r... http://t.co/FH2pk1MU #peakoil

Self Reliance News: Scraping the bottom of the barrel: Several articles in the international media in r... http://t.co/FH2pk1MU #peakoil

Petróleo no convencional: Jeremy Wakeford: Rebañando el fondo del barril. http://t.co/KfI2nDMo @EngNewsZA #PeakOil #EROI #ShaleOil #Fracking

Petróleo no convencional: Jeremy Wakeford: Rebañando el fondo del barril. http://t.co/KfI2nDMo @EngNewsZA #PeakOil #EROI #ShaleOil #Fracking

El #ShaleOil no es la solución. http://t.co/oVhhs9kR Contra el triunfalismo de la supremacía energética en USA @IVNetwork #PeakOil #fracking

El #ShaleOil no es la solución. http://t.co/oVhhs9kR Contra el triunfalismo de la supremacía energética en USA @IVNetwork #PeakOil #fracking

PowerSwitch

UK government warned of, and dismissed, peak oil warning in 2007

The UK government was warned by its own civil servants two years ago that there could be significant negative economic consequences to the UK posed by near-term peak oil energy shortages.Ministers were told it was impossible to know exactly when production might fail to meet supply but when it did there could be global consequences, including civil unrest .Yet ministers consistently played down the threat with the contemporaneous Wicks review into energy security (PDF) effectively dismissing peak oil as alarmist and irrelevant.Read more

UK DECC acknowledges risk of peak oil

Department of Energy and Climate Change consultation acknowledges real risk of significant long-term rises in oil pricesRead more (http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2077627/decc-accepts-warning-rising-peak-oil-risks)or read the DECC report in pptx format (http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/portal/index.php?option=com_content task=edit id=2980 Itemid=1 Returnid=1)

Government to develop Oil Shock Response Plan

Energy and Climate Change Secretary Chris Huhne yesterday agreed to develop an 'Oil Shock Response Plan', following a meeting with the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (http://peakoiltaskforce.net/) (ITPOES).Click here for more (http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2072738/exclusive-government-develop-oil-shock-response-plan?WT.rss_f= WT.rss_a=Exclusive%3A+Government+to+develop+Oil+Shock+Response+Plan)

Peakoil News

We have already entered peak oil,' IEA source reportedly claims

http://rawstory.com/2009/11/we-entered-peak-oil-iea-source-reportedly-claims/By Stephen C. Webster Two International Energy Agency whistleblowers have come forward with startling claims about the world's supply of crude oil, according to a report published Tuesday."We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone," an unnamed former IEA official told British newspaper The Guardian. "I think that the situation is really bad."A second whistleblower reportedly claimed that the IEA's current figures are inflated due to pressure from the United States and a pervasive fear that the announcement of falling oil output in the future could cause markets to respond with panic.The claims come on the same day the IEA plans to publish its annual "World Energy Outlook" report for 2009. "Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further," one of the IEA sources reportedly told the paper. "And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources."The agency reported in its 2008 World Energy Outlook that a field-by-field analysis of production trends revealed "that decline rates are likely to rise significantly in the long term, from an average of 6.7% today to 8.6% in 2030."The whistleblowers see things differently."The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," one of the sources claimed. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this."In a 2008 interview with Fatih Birol, chief economist at the IEA, Guardian environment writer George Monbiot reported that the IEA had expected peak oil output to be reached in a decade or two. "In terms of non-Opec [countries outside the big oil producers' cartel]," Birol reportedly said, "we are expecting that in three, four years' time the production of conventional oil will come to a plateau, and start to decline. In terms of the global picture, assuming that Opec will invest in a timely manner, global conventional oil can still continue, but we still expect that it will come around 2020 to a plateau as well, which is, of course, not good news from a global-oil-supply point of view."The 2008 World Energy Outlook suggested peak oil would be reached in 2030.The prediction that peak oil production was approaching in 2020 was enough to "scare the pants off" Monbiot, considering the predicted implications of a global energy crunch in just over a decade. However, if the allegations by The Guardian's whistleblowers are indeed true and peak oil has been reached, dark days loom for the global economy. According to The Wall Street Journal, the agency is not expected to announce the arrival at such a dramatic conclusion. Instead, the 2009 report due out Tuesday will predict slower growth in demand for oil, the Journal reported.Reuters added: "While the Paris-based IEA has repeatedly warned that a lack of investment could lead to a strain on supply, it maintains that there is enough oil in the ground."

The End Of Fossil Fuel

forbes.com By Chris Nelder, 07.24.09, 03:00 PM EDT Prepare for a radically different lifestyle as global crude oil production peaks and begins to decline. You will never see cheap gasoline again. You will probably never see cheap energy again. Oil, natural gas and coal are set to peak and go into decline within the next decade, and no technology can change that. Peaking is a simple concept. We generally exploit natural resources in a bell-shaped curve, with the rate of extraction increasing over time until we reach a peak and then gradually slowing down until we stop using them. Peak oil is not about "running out of oil"; it's about reaching the peak rate of oil production. It's not the size of the tank that matters, but the size of the tap. Read more about how soaring energy prices will transform our lives in our special report on $20 a Gallon. The peak is usually reached when resources become too difficult to extract, or too expensive, or they are replaced by something cheaper, better or more plentiful. Unfortunately, we have no substitutes for oil that are cheaper or better. According to the best available data, we are now at the peak rate of oil production. After over a century of continual growth, global conventional crude oil production topped out in 2005 at just over 74 million barrels per day (mbpd) and has remained at that level ever since. Read All Comments rtsUtil.addRtsBox('rateStoryP2',{source_type:"story",source_id:"2009/07/24/peak-oil-production-business-energy-nelder.html"}); The additional "oil" that brings the oft-cited world total to 84 mbpd today (down from 87 mbpd last year; according to U.S. government data) isn't conventional crude, but, rather, unconventional hydrocarbons, including natural gas liquids, "extra heavy" oil, synthetic oil made from Canadian tar sands, refinery gains, liquids produced from the conversion of coal and natural gas, and biofuels. Oil production is expected to go into terminal decline around 2012. The principal reason is that the largest and most productive fields are becoming depleted while new discoveries have been progressively smaller and of lesser quality. Discovery of new oil peaked over 40 years ago and has been declining ever since despite furious drilling and unprecedentedly high prices. When it begins to decline, rate of crude production is projected to fall at 5%, or over four mbpd, per year--roughly equivalent to losing the entire production of Latin America or Europe every year. The decline rate will likely accelerate to over 10% per year by 2030. The Paris-based International Energy Agency estimates that the world would need to add the equivalent of six new Saudi Arabias by 2030 in order to meet declining production and growing demand. Obviously, there aren't another six Saudi Arabias waiting to be discovered, and unconventional liquid fuels simply cannot fill such a yawning gap. Natural gas is likewise expected to peak some time around 2010-2020, and coal around 2020-2030. Oil, natural gas and coal together provide 86% of the world's primary energy. By the end of this century, nearly all of the economically recoverable fossil fuels will be gone. From now until then, what remains will be rationed by price. There will be shortages. Renewable energy--solar, wind, geothermal--currently makes up less than 2% of the world's primary energy supply, and although growing very rapidly, it is not on course to fill the fossil fuel gap, either. As fossil fuels peak and then decline, the world's economies will be forced for the first time to live within a shrinking, not expanding, energy budget. They will adapt to this new reality by repeating the cycle we saw over the last 18 months: commodity price spikes, leading to economic destruction, leading to supply destruction, leading back to price spikes. Only in recessionary periods, like now, will there be excess supply. How this will affect the global economy, and our lifestyles, cannot be overstated. Former chief economist for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce World Markets, Jeff Rubin, and oil investment banker Matthew Simmons have concluded that it means no less than the end of globalization. Americans, who constitute 4% of the world population but consume 25% of its energy, will have radically different lifestyles. Production of everything will have to be re-localized. Instead of our food traveling an average 1,500 miles before it reaches us, it will have to come from nearby and use organic methods instead of requiring 10 calories of fossil fuel inputs for every calorie of food we eat. Rather than shipping ore to China and shipping it back to the U.S. as steel, we'll need to revive our domestic steel industry. "Bedroom communities" will die and ideally be reborn as fully functional independent communities. It means the end of long commutes. The coming energy shortage is the most serious crisis the world has ever faced, but it could have a very positive outcome. In theory, the Earth's wind, solar, geothermal and marine resources could each provide more than the total energy the world consumes every day, if we had the ability to harvest them. As fossil fuel prices rise, the price of renewably generated electricity will continue to fall. If we are wise and lucky, we will rapidly improve the efficiency of our built environment, deploy renewable capacity and convert to an all-electric infrastructure that runs on it. Fortunately, political momentum is now leaning strongly in this direction. If we move fast to re-localize production and proceed with the renewable revolution, we could end the 21st century with a largely carbon-free economy, putting an end to climate change and averting resource wars. We would have healthier food and a safer, more resilient and equitable world. Chris Nelder is the author of Profit from the Peak--The End of Oil and the Greatest Investment Event of the Century and the coauthor of Investing in Renewable Energy. He blogs on GetRealList.

'$20 Per Gallon' by Christopher Steiner

Los Angeles TimesChristopher Steiner looks ahead and projects, $2 at a time, how rising gasoline prices will transform civilization.By Matthew DeBordAmazon.com - $20 Per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the BetterDuring the summer of 2008, Americans found out just how much was too much to pay for gas. On July 11, a barrel of oil hit $147.27, which translated into $4.11 for a gallon of regular gas at the pump -- the highest price ever reached in the U.S. And that was just the average. In some places, the price got close to $5 a gallon. It was the Summer of Pain.Many people who'd never heard of "peak oil," or who'd been trading in one SUV for another, or who'd scoffed at the idea that Americans would ever drive less, suddenly learned that when the price of a finite commodity spikes, even cherished habits change. And it's not just about driving: Our entire American way of life, in fact much of the global economy, has been built over decades on cheap oil: Seafood and plastic toys from China can flow freely around the world. The price of bread and milk stays low. Airlines can engage in price wars.But when the price of oil rises dramatically, inflation can kick in, scarcity can become the order of the day, freeways empty, General Motors and Chrysler slide into bankruptcy, and the American way of life grinds to a halt. Of course, after the price of oil crested in 2008, it quickly collapsed, leading some observers to speculate that the Summer of Pain was a blip on the radar.But for the first six months of this year, the price was steadily rising. Though it has stabilized and even fallen in recent weeks, it may begin a slow, undulant march until gas literally costs too much for anyone.This is the altered state of petroleum consciousness that Christopher Steiner, a trained engineer and writer for Forbes, envisions. And it's happening quickly, he points out. "As the middle class continues to explode in China, India, and scores of other spots circling the earth, hundreds of millions of additional cars will hit the roads," he writes. Many of those cars will be like the $2,200 Tata Nano, a "people's car" created for Indian consumers who've been riding bicycles and motor scooters for generations. "People want what Americans have had for decades: easy cars and an easy life. These people will get what they want, but in the process they will catalyze a global economic reformation on a scale never seen. . . . " Even the tattered remnants of the Detroit Big Three want a piece of this market: As General Motors left bankruptcy at home, it was selling more cars than ever in China.Steiner has adopted a nicely readable structure for the book. Starting at $4 a gallon, each chapter tracks what will happen when gas hits a particular price, escalating by $2 until he gets to $20. He visits an airplane graveyard in order to explain how $8-a-gallon gas will crush the airline industry. At $14, he checks out an abandoned Wal-Mart "ghost box" and imagines a grim end to the car-dominated exurb. "Stores will return to the downtowns of yore as small towns' populations . . . return to the small-town infrastructures that their grandparents and great-grandparents built."By $18 a gallon, high-speed railroads serve our travel needs, and by $20 a gallon, we just can't do oil anymore. And like a lot of people who've studied our post-oil energy options, he comes down on the side of nuclear. Eventually, he's replaced transatlantic flights with leisurely ocean passages akin to the grand liners of yesteryear. Except these new Queen Marys will run on nuclear reactors. Personal cars will be a thing of the past. Citizens of the future will wonder why we ever thought we needed them.By now, you may have noticed a great bifurcation here, typical of newbies to the study of spiking oil prices. We Americans will find our existence irrevocably altered to the point where we are forced to inhabit a downmarket green fantasy, harvesting power from wind and ocean currents, breaking our addiction to automobiles and generally living with less. Meanwhile, the developing world will have become the new first world, with a middle class with disposable income that Americans lack filling China, India and other rapidly growing countries with roads, cars and petroleum products. At least until all the oil runs out and they, too, must convert to lives of noble deprivation.Some of Steiner's speculations will happen. In particular, rising global energy demand could have a disastrous impact on food cultivation, which at the industrial scale needed to feed a populous planet requires fertilizers synthesized from natural gas. Nuclear power will be an obvious alternative-energy choice when gas settles into double-digit per gallon prices.Personal mobility could be another story, however, and here Steiner gets into tricky territory when he latches onto start-up electric car companies and gee-whiz mobility providers. In fact, good old internal-combustion engines running on gas may be with us for much longer than he thinks. Even $10 per gallon gas would be acceptable if efficient gas and hybrid engines can achieve significantly higher mileage, which is technologically feasible. Widespread electrification of transportation will come, but we could have to wait until the middle of the century, or even longer. The romance of the personal automobile won't fade so fast in the U.S., especially if it increases its hold elsewhere.There's also a glaring omission in "$20 Per Gallon" that should be addressed. Much of the ground that Steiner covers, with a certain boyish, gearhead utopianism, was traversed in much more apocalyptic fashion by James Howard Kunstler in his 2005 book, "The Long Emergency." Kunstler's arguments, which are actually more ecological than economic, are well known and widely debated. So it seems remarkable that Steiner, who comes to many of the same conclusions, fails to acknowledge a book that's been around for four years and actually anticipated the 2008 gas mini-crisis. "$20 Per Gallon" also reads at times as if it were hurriedly written. Still, Steiner has served up a terrific speculative primer on a future of much pricier energy and all that it may entail.DeBord writes the Shifting Gears blog for Slate's the Big Money and has written widely on the automobile industry and the future of mobility.

Early Warning

April Monthly Oil Supply

I'm a bit slow off the mark this month but both the IEA and OPEC have released April numbers for total liquid fuel supply, while the EIA is up to January.  The most recent changes are above (not zero-scaled to better show changes).  The IEA is now up to 91.  The pattern we've seen in 2012 of supply rather flat is still holding, however it's notable that the most recent OPEC monthly oil report revised the level of all three months Jan-Mar up by around a half a million barrels/day (so the seeming 2012 mini-plateau is now at a higher level than it was).  There is still a spread of almost two million barrels/day between the three sources indicating the overall levels of uncertainty in global supply are quite high at the moment, so maybe none of this should be taken as more than suggestive until more data comes in.Including the Brent price trend on the right axis and going back to 2002, the data looks as follows:

Feeling my Inner Kunstler

I'm currently in Surfer's Paradise on the Gold Coast of Australia in order to give a talk for work.  If you are in a bad mood when you frame the photo, the place looks like the above.  Or like this if you try to make it look good (say be capturing the sunrise from your hotel):I absolutely detest this kind of place - there's nothing that destroys the spirit of a once beautiful place quite as effectively as a bunch of 20-100 story concrete and glass hotel towers.  I went for a walk early this morning, and by the time I came back, I was seething.I was trying to figure out why places like this make me so mad.  I don't mind major cities nearly as much as this kind of beach+concrete-jungle resort.  I don't like to live in cities - being that far removed from nature feels oppressive to my soul.  But on a visit I can appreciate their liveliness and intensity and grand scale.  I think maybe it has something to do with the fact that big cities have been there a long time and the original spirit of that place has been completely replaced with the ambience of the city itself.  Whereas, at a resort, there is still a little bit left of whatever natural beauty it was that made people come here in the first place, and that makes it so much worse.  The crassness and insensitivity of the people that developed all these towers is made achingly painful by the fact that there is still clean sand and soft breezes and strange tropical sounding birds whistling in the trees between all the unspeakable ugliness that the humans have brought to the landscape.And maybe it also has to do with the fact that it's clear that thousands on thousands of people must choose to come here and stay in all these concrete towers with their own money - to a place I experience as a kind of spiritual torture and never would come to if I wasn't being well paid to do it - and then I feel very isolated from my own kind.How does anyone expect to feel a sense of the universe's mystery in a building that looks like that?There are days when I can't wait for the robots and algorithms to complete their take over - how can they screw the planet up any worse than we do?

EU Commission Forecasts Pain Almost Over

The European Commission just came out with a spring 2012 forecast for the EU economy.  You can see the main point above in the chart for GDP and forecast.  The good news is that Q2 will be the last quarter of contraction: recovery will begin forthwith next quarter.Or not:The forecast mild recovery is predicated on a return of confidence, and thus on the assumption that the challenges faced by the euro area, notably the still on-going sovereign-debt crisis and the fragile state of the EU banking system, will be successfully and sustainably overcome.That's a pretty big assumption...In particular the main mechanism identified to initiate recovery is that a falling Euro will help European competitiveness and drive greater demand for European exports.Overall, domestic demand is unlikely to support GDP growth in 2012, as the process of deleveraging continues across the sectors of the economy. Banks need to further strengthen their balance sheets and tight credit conditions are expected to weigh on consumption and investment. Private investment is currently still contracting and is expected to be a drag on GDP in 2012. and On balance, net exports of goods and services are expected to support economic growth over the forecast horizon. The consolidated current-account balance is predicted to gradually improve over the forecast horizon in the euro area and the EU. True as far as it goes, but seems mainly likely to help the strong (Germany, Netherlands) rather than the weak (Spain, Italy, Greece).  There's only so much olive oil you can buy...And as long as the weak are going to the wall, the whole area will continue to be riven by uncertainty about the future viability of the entire project, while will inhibit investment and consumption alike.

Associated Content

Bicycling in a Post-peak Oil World

This article discusses the pros and cons of bicycles as a post peak oil means of transportation.Contributor: Randy MoserPublished: Aug 29, 2011

Peak Oil

An explanation of Peak Oil from a former Oil Industry Executive.Contributor: D NelsonPublished: Jul 16, 2010

Aviation After Peak Oil: is There a Future?

Aviation is consuming jet fuel in record quantities. We are very near peak oil. The impending conflict is truly sobering. Does aviation have a realistic plan? Can biofuels rescue the industry from total collapse?Contributor: Dave JacksonPublished: May 27, 2010

GetREALlist

The energy transition juggernaut

For SmartPlanet this week, I reviewed eight recent public opinion polls from around the world, along with a handful of recent news reports and several research papers on solar costs, and found that fossil fuel industry money is no longer able to stop the energy transition juggernaut. The age of renewables has arrived. Read it here: The energy transition juggernaut

Fuel to Byrne

For SmartPlanet this week, I dug into the details of U.S. oil supply in an attempt to figure out how much if it is actually usable as vehicle fuel, and discount the energy content of natural gas liquids and biofuels so they can be accurately compared to oil. I conclude that on this basis, U.S. “oil” production is being routinely overstated by about one-third. Read it here: Fuel to Byrne

Interview with Financial Sense April 19, 2012

I appeared on the Financial Sense with Jim Puplava program today, to discuss the influence of spare capacity and speculators on oil prices; recent reports from the IEA and EIA; the shifting of global oil demand from West to East; and the role of unconventional fuels. You can download the show (26 mins) here: RealPlayer | WinAmp | Windows Media | MP3 Related articles that came up in the discussion: Scoring the rhetoric on Obama's energy policies Oil demand shift: Asia takes over A model of oil prices The cost of new oil supply

The Telegraph: Oil and Gas

Shareholder Spring: investor revolts at Tullow Oil and 888

A trio of companies including oil explorer Tullow Oil have become the latest victims of the Shareholder Spring.

Total finally plugs Elgin gas well in North Sea

North Sea platform had been leaking gas for more than seven weeks.

Repsol takes first step to legal action over Argentina's seizure of YPF

Spanish company says it intends to seek compensation at World Bank.

Mobjectivist

The Oil ConunDRUM

I synthesized the last several years of blog content and placed it into The Oil ConunDRUM. This document turned into a treatise of topics relating to the role of disorder and entropy in the applied sciences. Volume 1 is mainly on the analysis of the decline in global oil production, while Volume 2 uses often related analysis in studying renewable sources of energy and how entropy plays a role in our environment and everyday life. TOC essentially draws a line in the sand and a virtual stake in the ground. Everything I have written about and all the original analyses I have worked out on the blog has not fundamentally changed as I aggregated the information. As far as I can tell, no one else has picked up on the direction that I have taken, and nothing has come out of the research literature that comes close to unifying the set of topics as well as this does.A couple of commenters have said I should publish the research work through peer-reviewed channels. That won't happen because the project covers too much territory and compiling a massive tome such as this represented the best option I could think of. I invite all with an interest in the natural world to take a whack at digesting it.This is a list of the novel areas of research, listed in what I consider a ranked order of originality:The Oil Shock Model.A data flow model of oil extraction and production which allows for perturbations.The Dispersive Discovery Model.A probabilistic model of resource discovery which accounts for technological advancement and a finite search volume.The Reservoir Size Dispersive Aggregation Model.A first-principles model that explains and describes the size distribution of oil reservoirs and fields around the world.Solving the Reserve Growth "enigma".An application of dispersive discovery on a localized level which models the hyperbolic reserve growth characteristics observed.Shocklets.A kernel approach to characterizing production from individual fields.Reserve Growth, Creaming Curve, and Size Distribution Linearization.An obvious linearization of this family of curves, related to HL but more useful since it stems from first principles.The Hubbert Peak Logistic Curve explained.The Logistic curve is trivially explained by dispersive discovery with exponential technology advancement.Laplace Transform Analysis of Dispersive Discovery.Dispersion curves are solved by looking up the Laplace transform of the spatial uncertainty profile.The Maximum Entropy Principle and the Entropic Dispersion Framework. The generalized math framework applied to many models of disorder, natural or man-made. Explains the origin of the entroplet.Gompertz Decline Model.Exponentially increasing extraction rates lead to steep production decline.Anomalous Behavior in Dispersive Transport explained.Photovoltaic (PV) material made from disordered and amorphous semiconductor material shows poor photoresponse characteristics. Solution to simple entropic dispersion relations or the more general Fokker-Planck leads to good agreement with the data over orders of magnitude in current and response times.Framework for understanding Breakthrough Curves and Solute Transport in Porous Materials.The same disordered Fokker-Planck construction explains the dispersive transport of solute in groundwater or liquids flowing in porous materials.The Dynamics of Atmospheric CO2 buildup and extrapolation.Used the oil shock model to convolve a fat-tailed CO2 residence time impulse response function with a fossil-fuel stimulus. This shows the long latency of CO2 buildup very straightforwardly.Terrain Slope Distribution Analysis.Explanation and derivation of the topographic slope distribution across the USA. This uses mean energy and maximum entropy principle.Reliability Analysis and understanding the "bathtub curve".Using a dispersion in failure rates to generate the characteristic bathtub curves of failure occurrences in parts and components.Wind Energy Analysis.Universality of wind energy probability distribution by applying maximum entropy to the mean energy observed. Data from Canada and Germany.Dispersion Analysis of Human Transportation Statistics.Alternate take on the empirical distribution of travel times between geographical points. This uses a maximum entropy approximation to the mean speed and mean distance across all the data points.The Overshoot Point (TOP) and the Oil Production Plateau.How increases in extraction rate can maintain production levels.Analysis of Relative Species Abundance.Dispersive evolution of species according to Maximum Entropy Principle leads to characteristic distribution of species abundance.Lake Size Distribution.Analogous to explaining reservoir size distribution, uses similar arguments to derive the distribution of freshwater lake sizes. This provides a good feel for how often super-giant reservoirs and Great Lakes occur (by comparison)Labor Productivity Learning Curve Model.A simple relative productivity model based on uncertainty of a diminishing return learning curve gradient over a large labor pool (in this case Japan).Project Scheduling and Bottlenecking.Explanation of how uncertainty in meeting project deadlines or task durations caused by a spread of productivity rates leads to probabilistic schedule slips with fat-tails. Answers why projects don't complete on time.The Stochastic Model of Popcorn Popping.The novel explanation of why popcorn popping follows the same bell-shaped curve of the Hubbert Peak in oil production.The Quandary of Infinite Reserves due to Fat-Tail Statistics.Demonstrated that even infinite reserves can lead to limited resource production in the face of maximum extraction constraints.Oil Recovery Factor Model.A model of oil recovery which takes into account reservoir size.Network Transit Time Statistics.Dispersion in TCP/IP transport rates leads to the measured fat-tails in round-trip time statistics on loaded networks.Language Evolution Model.Model for relative language adoption which depends on critical mass of acceptance.Web Link Growth Model.Model for relative popularity of web sites which follows a diminishing return learning curve model.Scientific Citation Growth Model.Same model used for explaining scientific citation indexing growth.Particle and Crystal Growth Statistics.Detailed model of ice crystal size distribution in high-altitude cirrus clouds.Rainfall Amount Dispersion.Explanation of rainfall variation based on dispersion in rate of cloud build-up along with dispersion in critical size.Earthquake Magnitude Distribution.Distribution of earthquake magnitudes based on dispersion of energy buildup and critical threshold.Income Disparity Distribution.Relative income distribution which includes inflection point to to compounding interest growth on investments.Insurance Payout Analysis, and Hyperbolic Discounting.Fat-tail analysis of risk and estimation.Thermal Entropic Dispersion Analysis.Solving the Fokker-Planck equation or Fourier's Law for thermal diffusion in a disordered environment. A subtle effect.GPS Acquisition Time Analysis.Engineering analysis of GPS cold-start acquisition times.You can refer back to details in the blog, but The Oil ConunDRUM cleans everything up. It features quality mathematical markup, references to scholarly work, a full subject index, hypertext table of contents, several hundred figures with captions, footnotes and sidebars with editorial commentary, embedded historical documents, source code appendices, and tables of nomenclature and glossary.EDIT (1/21/11): Here is a critique from TOD. I can only assume the commenter doesn't understand the concept of convolution or doesn't realize that such a useful technique exists:Your methods are fundamentally flawed you cannot aggregate across producing basins like you do. Its simply wrong.To add multiple producing basins together you must adjust the time variable such that all of them start production at the same time or if they have peaked all the peaks are aligned.The time that a basin was discovered and put into production is an irrelevant random variable and has no influence on the ultimate URR.If you don't correctly normalize the time variable across basins your work is simply garbage. There is no coupling between basins and no reason to average them based on real time. Its junk math. No simple function exists in real time to describe the aggregate production profile.The US simply happened to have its larger basins developed about the same time in real time. Hubbert's original analysis worked simply because the error in the normalized time and real time was small.One of the mysteries of science and mathematics is the role of entropy. The mathematician Gian-Carlo Rota from MIT had this to say just a few years ago:The take on this is that as Rota says about the Maximum Entropy Principle "Among all mathematical recipes, this is to the best of my knowledge the one that has found the most striking applications in engineering practice", yet it retains this sense of mystery in that no one can really prove it -- entropy just IS and by its existence, you have to deal with it the best you can.EDIT (1/31/11): In the book, the last prediction of global crude production I made was a while ago. Here is an update:The chart above is the best guess model from 2007 using the combined Dispersive Discovery+Oil Shock Model for crude. Apart from a conversion from barrels/year to barrels/day, this is the same model as I used in a 2007 TOD post and documented in The Oil ConunDRUM. The recent data from EIA is shown as the green dots back to 1980. I always find it interesting to take the 10,000 foot view. What may look like a plateau up close, may actually be part of the curve at a distance.EDIT (2/22/2011): An additional USA Shock Model not included in the book. I included Alaska in this model.Discovery data transcribed from this figure; the discoveries seem to end in 1985, so I extended the data with a dispersive discovery model. I added in Alaska North Slope at 22 billion barrels in 1968 and a small 300 million barrel starter discovery in 1858..The blue line in the Dispersive Discovery Model is this equation, which is essentially a scaled version of the world model:DD(t)=(1-exp(-URR/(B*((t-t')^6))))*B*((t-t')^6), URR=240,000 million barrels, B=2E-7, t'=1835.I did not include any perturbation shocks to keep it simple. Apart from the data, the following is the entirety of the Ruby code; the discovery.txt file is yearly discovery data, which is from the first graph. The second graph shows reserve.out and production.out. cat discovery.txt | ruby exp.rb 0.07 | ruby exp.rb 0.07 | ruby exp.rb 0.07 > reserve.outcat reserve.out | ruby exp.rb 0.08 >production.out$ cat exp.rbdef exp(a, b)rate = blength = a.lengthtemp = 0.0for i in 0..length dooutput = (a[i].to_f + temp) * ratetemp = (a[i].to_f + temp) * (1.0 - rate)puts outputendendexp(STDIN.readlines, ARGV[0].to_f)

Terrain Slopes

Entropy makes its mark everywhere. Take the case of modeling topography. How can we model and thus characterize disorder in the earth's terrain? Can we actually understand the extreme variability we see?If we consider that immense forces cause upheaval in the crust then we can reason that the energy can also vary all over the map, so to speak. The process that transfers potential energy into kinetic energy to first order has to contain elements of randomness. To the huge internal forces within the earth, generating relief textures equates to a kind of brownian motion in relative terms -- over geological time, the terrain amounts to nothing more than inconsequential particles to the earth's powerful internal engine.In a related sense the process also resembles the pressure distribution in the earth's atmosphere, a classic application of maximum entropy that we can re-apply in the case of modeling terrain slope distributions.Premise. We take the terrain slope S as our random variable (defined as rise/run). The higher the slope, the more energetic the terrain. Applying Maximum Entropy to a section of terrain, we can approximate the local variations as a MaxEnt conditional probability density function:p(S|E) = (1/cE) * exp(-S/cE)where E is the local mean energy and c is a constant of proportionality. But we also assume that the mean E varies over a larger area that we are interested in, as in the superstatistical sense of applying a prior distribution.p(E) = k*exp(-k*E)where k is another MaxEnt measure of our uncertainty in the energy spread over a larger area.The final probability is an integral over the marginal distribution consisting of the conditional multiplied by the prior:p(S) = integral p(S|E) *p(E) dE from E=0 to infinityThis integrates as a BesselK function of the zero order, K0, available on any spreadsheet program (see here for a similar derivation in an unrelated field).p(S) = 2/S0 * K0(2*sqrt(S/S0))The average value of the terrain slope for this distribution is simply the value S0.Now we can try it on a large set of data. I downloaded all the DEM data for the 1 degree quadrangles (aka blocks/tiles) in the USA from the USGS web site. http://dds.cr.usgs.gov/pub/data/DEM/250/This consists of post data at approximately 92 meter intervals (i.e. a fixed value of run) at 1:250,000 scale for the entire USA. I concentrated on the lower 48 and some spillover into Canada. I used curl to iteratively download each of the nearly 1000 quadrangle files on the server.I then wrote a program to read the data from individual DEM files and calculate the slopes between adjacent posts and came up with an average slope (rise/run) of 0.039, approximately a 4% grade or 2.2 degrees pitch. I take the absolute values of all slopes so that the average is not zero.The cumulative plot of terrain slopes for all 5 billion calculated slope points appears on the following chart (Figure 1). I also added the cumulative probability distribution of the BesselK model with the calculated average slope as the single adjustable parameter.Figure 1: CDF of USA DEM data and the BesselK model with a small variation in S0 (+/-4% about the average 0.037 rise/run) demonstrating sensitivity to the fit.This kind of agreement does not just happen because of coincidence. It occurs because random forces contribute to maximizing the entropy of the topography. Enough variability exists for the terrain to reach an ergodic limit in filling the energy-constrained state space.As supporting evidence, it turns out that we can generate a distribution that maps well to the prior by estimating the average slope from the conditional PDF of each of the 922 quadrangle blocks and then plotting this aggregate data set as another histogram (see Figure 2).Figure 2: Generation of the prior distribution by taking the average slope of each of the nearly 1000 quadrangles . The best fit generates a value of S0 (1/27=0.037) close to that used in Figure 1.Practically speaking, we see the variability in slopes expressed at the two different levels. The entire USA at the integrated (BesselK model) level and the aggregated regions at the localized (exponential prior) level. These remain consistent as they agree on the single adjustable parameter S0 .The modeled distribution has many practical uses for analysis, including transportation studies and planning. Obviously, vehicles traveling up slopes use a significant amount of energy and you might like to have a model to base an analysis on without having to rely on the data by itself. (As a caveat, I did not include any of the spatial correlations that must also exist and might prove useful as well)Perusing the recent research, I couldn't find anyone that had previously discovered this simple model. Not that they haven't tried, coming up with a good slope distribution model seems to amount to a mini Holy Grail among geophysicists. I went as far as dropping $10 to downloading the first paper, which turned out to be a bust.Probabilistic description of topographic slope and aspect.G. Vico and A. Porporato, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 114, F01011, doi:10.1029/2008JF001038, 2009http://www.agu.org/journals/jf/jf0901/2008JF001038/2008JF001038.pdfNonlinear Processes in Geophysics Multifractal earth topography.J.-S. Gagnon, S. Lovejoy, and D. Schertzer, Nonlin. Processes Geophys., 13, 541--570, 2006http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/docs/00/33/10/93/PDF/npg-13-541-2006.pdfPROPAGATION OF DEM UNCERTAINTY: AN INTERVAL ARITHMETIC APPROACH.G Gonçalves, XXII International Cartographic Conference, 2005http://www.cartesia.org/geodoc/icc2005/pdf/oral/TEMA7/Session%202/GIL%20GON%C7ALVES.pdfSAR interferometry and statistical topography.Guarnieri, A.M. IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Dec 2002http://home.dei.polimi.it/monti/papers/montiguarnieri02.pdfIf someone wants to generate Monte Carlo statistics for the BesselK model without having to do the probability inversion, the algorithm turns out surprisingly simple. Draw two independent random samples from a uniform [0.0 .. 1.0] interval, apply the natural log to each, multiply them together, and then multiply by the S0 scaling constant. That will give the following cumulative if done 5 billion times, which is the same size as my USA DEM data sample.Figure 3: Generation of the BesselK model via Monte Carlo.The only statistical noise is at the 1e-9 level, same as in the DEM data.Examples of some random-walk realizations drawing from a two-level model follow. The flatter regions occur more often reflecting the regional data.

Understanding Recovery Factors

A recent TOD post on reserve growth by Rembrandt Kopelaar motivated this analysis.The recovery factor indicates how much oil that one can recover from the original estimate. This has important implications for the the ultimately recovery resources, and increases in recovery rate has implications for reserve growth.First of all, we should acknowledge that we still have uncertainty as to the amount of original oil in place, so that the recovery factor has two factors of uncertainty.The cumulative distribution of reservoir recovery factor typically looks like the following S-shaped curve. The fastest upslope indicates the region closest to the average recovery factor.Figure 1: Recovery Factor cumulative distribution function (from)To understand the spread in the recovery factors, one has to first realize that all reservoirs have different characteristics. Some are more difficult to extract from and others have easier recovery factors. One of the principle first-order effects has to do with the size of the reservoir: bigger reservoirs typically have better recovery factors and as one reservoir engineer mentioned on TOD "Reserve growth tends to happen in bigger fields because thats where you get the most bang for your buck"So if we make the simple assumption that cumulative recovery factors (RF) have Maximum Entropy uncertainty or dispersion for a given Size:P(RF) = 1-exp (-k*RF/Size)this makes sense as the recovery factor will extend for larger fields.Add to the mix that reservoir Sizes go approximately as (see here):Pr(Size)= 1/(1+Median/Size)Then a simple reduction in these sets of equations (with the key insight that RF ranges between 0 and 1, i.e. between 0 and 100%) gives usP(RF) = 1 - exp(-k*RF*RF/(1-RF)/Median)the ratio Median/k indicates the fractional average recovery factor relative to the median field size.A set of curves for various k/Median values below:Figure 2: Recovery Factor distribution functions assuming maximum entropyRembrandt provided some recovery factor curves originally supplied by Laherrere, and I fit these to the Median/k fractions below.Figure 3: Recovery factor curves from Rembrandt's TOD post,alongside the recovery factor model described here.Laherrere also provided curves for natural gas, where recovery factors turn out much higher.Figure 4: Recovery Factor distribution functions for natural gas.Note that the recovery factor is much higher than for oil.(Note: I had to fix the typo in the graph x-axis naming)It looks like this derivation has strong universality underlying it. This remains a very simple and parsimonious model as it has only one sliding parameter. The parameter Median/k works in a scale-free fashion because both numerator and denominator have dimensions of size. This means that one can't muck with it that much -- as recovery factors increase, the underlying uncertainty will remain and the curves in Figure 2 will simply slide to the right over time while adjusting their shape. This will essentially describe the future reserve growth we can expect; the uncertainty in the underlying recovery factors will remain and thus we should see the limitations in the smearing of the cumulative distributions. To reverse the entropic dispersion of nature and thus to overcome the recovery factor inefficiency, we will certainly have to expend extra energy.

PeakOil Task Force

Government to work with business on plans to tackle peak oil threat

Business leaders today welcomed a commitment by the Government to work with the private sector on contingency plans to protect the UK and its economy from the growing risk of rising oil prices. It follows a meeting between Chris Huhne, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change, and representatives from the UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES). During the meeting, the Secretary of State agreed that the Department for Energy and Climate Change and ITPOES should work more closely together on peak-oil threat assessment and contingency planning. The collaboration should begin with a joint examination of concerns that global oil supply will begin to fall behind global demand within as little as five years -- far earlier than previous widely-held assumptions. While full details are to be agreed,  Mr Huhne has indicated this would be the first step in the development of a national Peak Oil contingency plan. DECC has already begun to explore the likely damaging economic impact of rising oil prices, as reported in The Times. Following the discussions with Mr Huhne, business leaders are also to seek engagement with the Treasury to  raise their concerns over the economic consequences for UK businesses which are likely to result from the threat of energy security. ITPOES Chairman John Miles said: “We had a very constructive meeting with Chris Huhne, and this is a positive step forward in the dialogue between business and Government. It is important that we work together to assess the short-term threat which confronts the national economy and the business climate in which we have to operate." "We must define the risks and develop sensible contingency plans. This means thinking critically about what we should be doing now if we knew that the oil price would soar over the next five years. Many of the possible courses of action could also help to accelerate our response to the parallel threat of climate change. We look forward to building on this commitment from Government to work together on developing practical plans to mitigate these risks.” ITPOES member companies are Arup, Buro Happold, Solarcentury, SSE, Stagecoach Group and Virgin Group. For the past three years, ITPOES has argued for proactive and rapid mobilisation against both the oil and climate-change threats through a coalition of government, business and consumers. ITPOES released reports in 2008 and 2010 on the impact of peak oil on the UK economy, highlighting the complex factors above and below ground which will increasingly tighten the flexibility in the oil market over the next few years, and as early as 2015. ITPOES also produced a briefing note in November 2010 highlighting the risks to global oil supply from increasing exposure to deepwater oil production.

Industry taskforce welcomes Carbon Plan

The UK Industry Taskforce on Peak Oil and Energy Security (ITPOES) welcomed the Government's new Carbon Plan as a “positive first step”. However, the group said political instability in the Middle East, rising fuel prices and increasing uncertainty over oil reserves had heightened the urgency for action. ITPOES said the private sector was crucial to ensuring the practical delivery of any strategy. It urged Ministers to adopt a closer and more collaborative working partnership with industry and use the forthcoming Budget to give a clear commitment to accelerate a range of low carbon initiatives, including the “Green Deal”, Green Investment Bank and protection of feed-in tariffs for renewable energy. In a joint statement, ITPOES members Arup, Buro Happold, Kingfisher, Solarcentury, SSE, Stagecoach Group and Virgin Group said: “For the past three years, we have been warning of the very energy security risks that have been brought into sharp focus by events in the Middle East. We have stressed the need for co-operative contingency planning and proactive risk-abatement and we remain extremely keen to work with the UK government. “Recognition by the Coalition administration that we have a serious problem and moves to ensure a more joined up approach across government are a positive first step. “However, the negative impact of our dependency on oil threatens to be far worse than the oil shocks of previous decades and the actions needed to tackle it are wider than just government. “Business has a crucial role to play if we are to wean the UK off oil. We must work together to deliver a radical solution to the challenge of peak oil, and we hope this will be reflected in the forthcoming Budget with accelerated support for domestic and commercial low-carbon initiatives, including a low-carbon transportation strategy to reduce our oil dependency.” ITPOES released reports in 2008 and 2010 on the impact of peak oil on the UK economy, highlighting the complex factors above and below ground which will increasingly tighten the flexibility in the oil market over the next few years, and as early as 2015. ITPOES also produced a briefing note in November 2010 highlighting the risks to global oil supply from increasing exposure to deepwater oil production. These reports are all available on this website. For further information, contact Ben Richardson, Arup: ben.richardson@arup.com

Oil fuels UK producer prices rise

A BBC news online article looks at oil prices and a rise in the price of goods. “The prices of goods leaving UK factories rose at their fastest rate for 13 months in January, fuelled by a jump in the cost of oil, figures show.” Read the full article.

Peak Energy

Transition Culture

A letter from Cascis, Portugal

[Here's a great story from Portugal.  My thanks to Isabel and Luis for sending it in]. Hello everyone. We are Isabel and Luis, from Cascais, in Portugal. We have lived here (in Cascais) for the last 15 years, with the blue sea and fabulous sand beaches nearby, on one way and amazing mountain sides on the other, sensing the earth and the sea … … watching beautiful sunrises and sunsets (more sunsets now than sunrises, since our recent embraced work tends to keep us awake till late hours)…   … and live with the constant presence of our history,… … feel the life in the community and taking part in it,…  … and watching how climate change is taking its toll with some hot waves in the Summer (2003 was indeed the worst, but some others have already followed) and the sea leaving some of the beaches without much of the sand in the Winter (like in 2010). Well, as we were saying,… we were thinking how sustainable our lives should be to keep being as good as they have been until then, and so that our two children (with six and three years old) could keep on growing with at least the same chances of having a good and safe future as we did back in the time when we were growing up. By April of 2010 we knew that our municipality was starting a community garden program and we applied ourselves to it. On July 2011, we were called up to start the program formation on organic farming and we haven’t stopped gardening our vegetables since then. In fact we have quite a group there, with some good friendships developing and lots of celebrations to bless our crops. Meanwhile, about that same time, I (Isabel) came in contact with the Portuguese permaculture and transition groups over the Internet… and I found a new world that looked like it was just there waiting to be found!… For years I had been searching for such kind of knowledge and practical information and… there it was!… On September 17th and 18th took place the Transition Initiative Course in Sintra, but although an attractive theme, it was still just an idea for me. On November of 2011 I took notice of a meeting of the local (Cascais) Transition Initiative and I knew I had to come. Until then I had never left what I thought was my comfort zone. And then… I found Transition. After that meeting, Transition grew on me. On early January of 2012, this time with Luis and the kids coming along, we went to another group meeting, where the core group assumed the disintegration of the existing Initiative. Later on that month, after some thoughtful consideration, we (Luis and I) looked at each other and… as Rob says “if there is no Transition Initiative in your town, start your own” and so… We did! From late January we started “Cascais em Transição” group on Facebook, we picked up the existing blog (from the previous group), and on early February we went to the Lisbon Initiatives Meeting and were invited to be on the National HUG (HUB) Meeting, the day after. It was so good meeting all of those whom became our Transition companions and they gave us such levels of inspiration and strength to go on with our new mission in Cascais!… We returned home with our hearts full of joy and motivation to carry on our work. In the beginning of March we saw our Initiative group grow to six members and on March 23th and 24th we, Luis and I, did the Initiative Training Course in Linda-a-Velha. In early April we, on behalf of the 'Cascais em Transição' Initiative, presented a proposal to the Cascais Municipality Budget 2012, a program started in 2011 by the Local Government to motivate local residents to have a more active citizenship, to participate in the local decisions and have a saying on how the local funds are spent. This year we presented a proposal and it was approved after being initially voted in the first presenting session!… Here is Luis presenting the proposal (and you can see the satisfaction on his face, once we knew it had been approved).    What we are trying to do with this proposal is to pass a vote on a decision to convert a local urban park and to create renewable energy infrastructures on the existing buildings and others like community gardens and community composting area, community wood ovens, cycling school, and a place or building where we can start some sensibilization and capacitation activities.       Now the proposal will be technically evaluated by the municipality budget department and after that it will be voted through the internet by the resident constituents. We shall know the final results in October.  By that time we also concluded we needed a Logo and we needed it fast if we wanted to have an image that presented ourselves to the outside as a Transition group. And this is what we came out with: Still, on 17th of March 2012 we were invited by the organization of ‘MUSA CASCAIS' Festival to join them on a tree plantation campaign to neutralize the carbon footprint of the Festival.  It was quite a group of people gathered in this cause.  Here is Miguel and Sofia planting their first cork oak trees with mum and dad.  And here is our Mayor, Carlos Carreiras, carrying the oak trees up the hill. He turned to be quite a dedicated man. On that day he said that he wanted to plant one tree for each newborn child in Cascais while he was in office. Since that number had already been exceeded (65.000), he set a new goal: to plant one tree for each resident. We are 268.000. On the May 5th we invited all of Transition Initiatives of the Lisbon Area to join us in celebration for the national (and simultaneous) exhibition of the 'In Transition 2.0' film. It took place in the Cascais Cultural Center and it was followed by a picnic in the park where we all gathered afterwards and talked about it, exchanging experiences, expectations and points of view about what we had seen.  It had a good audience, with lots of friends from other Transition Initiatives, and not only from Lisbon, which left us grateful for their presence and for the outcome. Now, about our most recent adventure on behalf of our Transition Initiative … After planting some trees to help to neutralize the carbon footprint of the 'MUSA Cascais' Festival', and since 'MUSA Cascais' is and has been from 2006 onwards strongly advocating in favor of sustainability, and of an active response to global warming and climate change -- its tag is "Preocupas-te?" or "Do You Care?" -- this year, we decided to propose to the organization of this Festival to land us a place or a stand in the grounds of the event, where we could promote Transition and demonstrate its practices. When we met, instead of discussing the conditions or accepting our request, they proposed to us to go a "little" bit further in our ambitions and asked us to speak to our national HUG to know if, as a growing civic movement, we would be interested in turning 'MUSA Cascais' into a wide and transversal Transition Festival. In such short notice, this year, with the help of the other portuguese local Initiatives we will all be able to raise a stand representative of the Portuguese Transition, capable of a good deal of promotion and demonstration of our Transition standards in this Music Festival.  Next year, with time, preparation and due efforts, we hope we will be able to share with the world our first Transition Festival.  This is the current lineup of this year MUSA Cascais' Festival and it is not closed yet. What can we say…  That good chances only unveil to those who stand with open heart and mind to what life can accept of them. A big HUG from Portugal Isabel and Luis Gonçalves

The transcript of my TEDxExeter talk

I posted the video of this a couple of weeks ago, but I am deeply grateful to Vanessa Kroll who has transcribed it, in case such a thing would be of interest/use to anyone.  Here it is: “Hello.  I want to tell you a story which pulls together a lot of what we've heard already and looks at what that might look like in the context of one place. And it's a story which I think can change the world. It's a story which already is changing the world. It's the story of my town, Totnes, in Devon.  A town of about 8,500 people, midway between Exeter and Plymouth.   But before I can tell you the story what I really want to tell you about Totnes, I have to get another one out of the way first.  Totnes was once referred to as the "Capital of New Age Chic", that's 'chic' not 'sheep'. The idea of a "Capital of New Age Sheep" is too horrible to imagine. The Western Morning News, the local paper, in an article which I'll be coming back to later, once referred to the average resident of Totnes as a "sandal wearing, crystal gazing soap carver subsisting entirely on brown rice and organic parsnips". And Matt Harvey, our local poet, says that when you've lived there too long your body starts to secrete a hormone called ‘Totnesterone’, where your masculine and feminine come into perfect balance with each other. But I think it's really important that we move beyond the stereotypes of the town into another story that is happening there, which I think is really, really important. Totnes has a much higher than the national average number of families depending on part time work rather than full time work, has 50% more families living below £20,000 a year than the national average, very high house prices, and has seen most of its industry, most of its employment shut down over the last 15-20 years. The bacon factory, the milk factory, the art college, to a point where local businessman and historian Walter King talks about whether what we're seeing is "the long, slow death of Totnes as a living working town, gathering pace". And it's that story, that context that I really want to talk about. My role in this, I suppose started in 2005 when a friend and myself started showing some films about peak oil, about the idea that we are reaching the end of an age of cheap energy and all that that has made possible. We're entering a time of increasingly volatile energy prices and that what we need to do with focus, determination, optimism and a sense of possibility is design the way that we're going to get away from that. Same in terms of addressing climate change.  (Points to slide) It's the very first talk that I gave in the town and it's a story that has really started to build from that point because ultimately there is no cavalry coming to the rescue of places like Totnes, of most places where you live. The current economic situation, these kind of issues around peak oil and climate change, what we really need to do, I would argue, is to harness, engage the collective genius of the people around us and focus on these challenges, seeing them as an enormous opportunity to be more brilliant than we've ever been, to do something which is really, really historic.  What I want to do is show you a very short little animation from the film that we've just released which is called 'In Transition 2.0' which hopefully captures rather creatively how transition approaches making change happen on the ground. [Audio from video clip] "You can think of the economy of the place that you live as being like a big bucket and into that bucket go pensions, wages, grants and so on, but at the moment things like supermarkets, paying our electricity bills, internet shopping are all drilling holes into that bucket that means that our accumulated wealth and its potential are just draining away. And everywhere that there's a leak in that bucket is a potential local livelihood, potential local business or a training opportunity for young people. So things like supporting community energy companies, supporting local food where it's available and boosting that where it is and using local currency are all very skilful ways of plugging the leaks in that bucket." So from quite early on of doing Transition Town Totnes as it started to be known, we had a big event called 'The Unleashing' which was our launch event and from very early on, very quickly projects started going, people were excited, they were inspired, they wanted to see thing happen where they were. There were projects like the nut tree planting scheme where we wanted to plant productive trees throughout the town. There are now 250 planted, looked after by people who are close to them. A lot of local businesses paid to have them planted. And we had our first harvest of almonds from a park in town last autumn. The Totnes Pound, the local currency scheme, specifically designed not to fit out through those holes in the bucket because if we take them anywhere else they're not worth anything. You can't use local currency, you can't put it in offshore banking accounts, they're not very useful in the Cayman Islands!  A Local Food Directory so people can identify and support local food businesses. A co-housing group looking to build affordable co-housing for people as part of the local development. Awareness raising things like Open Eco-Homes, Open Edible Gardens where people can go and visit other people's places where they're already doing that stuff and learn from it. The Garden Share scheme where people who have a garden that they're too elderly or too busy to use, are matched with people who want to grow food and don't have anywhere to grow it. And that's been going really really well. In 2009, when this had been going for about 3 years, we did a survey and we found that 75% of people in the town had heard of what we were doing, 62 % of people agreed with it, thought it was a good idea, and about 30-33% had had some kind of engagement with it at some point. But stories started to reach us of how it was being picked up in other places. And my favourite was the daughter of a woman who is very active in the local churches went on holiday to Canada, a canoeing holiday. She was out in the middle of one of the great lakes, canoeing along, middle of nowhere, sees another canoe thinks "I'll be sociable", I'd better go over and say hello, paddles over, gets chatting "Where are you from?"  "Totnes". "Oh, Transition Town Totnes?"  And it's amazing how that story has rippled out. But very quickly we needed to put some foundations under this, this was something that was starting to grow very very quickly and it had a lot of interest, both within the place and from outside people coming along and saying "What do you do?", "How does that work?". So Transition Town Totnes was set up as an organisation to offer project support, it's a 'do-ocracy'. The people who make the decisions are the people who are doing stuff. It employs one and a half posts at the moment, and has brought in, I reckon, about one million pounds to the town over the last five years, and has rapidly become one of the pillars locally of local culture I think. When we started doing Transition I was always imagined it was an environmental thing.  More and more I see it as being a cultural thing, really more and more I see it as being a cultural thing.  How do you change the story of the place where you are? And within that there's a whole process of 'we can start lots of different projects' but what does it look like if we start to see them all together?  If we can create a vision, if we can create a story that the people in the place can start to resonate with, it starts to make sense. And we've done 2 things that have been really sort of strategic pieces around design. One of them was the Energy Descent Action Plan which you can find online, which involved many hundreds of people in trying to envision what the place could be like if we take peak oil, climate change, our economic situation as a huge opportunity to be brilliant. And the other one is called the Economic Blueprint that we're doing at the moment which is actually now the local council's Economic Blueprint. What's exciting with that is that for the first time that I'm aware of it's starting to map the potential of the local economy. What passes through it and how could we start to cycle that more locally if we can start to plug some of the leaks?  So what are the initial findings for example?  Every year the area spends £30 million on food.  £20 million of that goes out through just 2 supermarkets. If we could start to shift just 10% of that spent to local food, we've brought £2 million into our local economy. We haven't had to get government grants in, we haven't had to invite big companies in, we've got £2 million in our economy for creating skills, trainings, new livelihoods and new enterprises. That feels like, to me, like a really big, really important idea of our time. And one of the projects we did a couple of years ago which I think is really really interesting, this is after starting an organisation focussed on community responses to peak oil and climate change, is this thing called 'Transition Streets'. Transition Streets is based on the idea that maybe change sticks better if you get together with your neighbours and it works on a street by street level.  So you get out on your street, you knock on the doors, you get between 6 and 10 people/households together and you agree to meet 7 times in each other's houses. You look at water one week, energy another week, food another week and you make pledges at the end of each session about what you're going to do. And on average each household that gets involved cuts their carbon by about 1.3 tonnes and saves themselves about £600.  500 households have done this now. That becomes a very significant reduction towards the town's emissions. But when I meet people in the street who've done it, they don't say: "Oh, it's great Rob, we did Transition Streets, we saved 1.3 tonnes of carbon, we're feeling really pleased with ourselves. So great, we really feel we're doing our bit." What they say is: "it's great, I now know Sandra over the road, Dave over the road, you know we're doing this thing, I didn't know him, he's such an interesting guy, he does this and he knows all of this and he's shown me how to do that." And all that social side of it is what comes to the fore. When we asked people in a report at the end that pulled together all the learnings from it "why did you get involved in Transition Streets?", the key answer was "because I wanted to know my neighbours better." And when we asked them "What were the key benefits you feel that you got out of being involved in that?" and we turned it into one of those clever Word Cloud things,  'Community', 'neighbours', 'getting to know'.  'Climate change' doesn't even register, 'peak', a tiny little word in the bottom corner, which for me is really really fascinating, that maybe in terms of making change happen, there is a different way of doing it which is about something which is kind of infectious and sort of viral and fun and contagious in that way. I'm using lots of disease analogies and I'm not trying to but they seem to be coming to my mind quickly! And what we're really focussing on now increasingly is about how do we make a new economy a reality in the town? If the cavalry aren't coming, how do we do that? What does it look like if we start to put that in place? So things are now happening like the Totnes Renewable Energy Society, which now has 500 members and is about to put in for planning for 2 wind turbines on the edge of the town. Transition Tours, which is about turning the many people who come to Totnes to find out about TTT, put on a really good experience for them in such a way that means we don't kind of drown in it. Transition Homes which is a development looking to build 20 affordable houses but using predominantly local materials, because in the same way when we talk about food, localising food brings more money cycling into our economy, exactly the same thing works for building materials. We're seeing businesses starting to emerge through the kind of culture that's been created of saying "we need new enterprises for this, who's up for that?".  We recently held a thing called the 'Local Entrepreneur Forum', where we brought together people with business ideas in the town, about 40 people who had great ideas for different enterprises with local potential investors and mentors to really try and kick start what this new economy could look like. We have a micro brewery project which is in the offing, The Kitchen Table which is really about catering but trying to catalyze lots of other things around local food as well. It's looking for businesses which have a number of criteria, that they're about: promoting local resilience that they're low carbon that they are not just purely for personal profit that they are working within natural limits promoting localisation, and that they're about bringing assets into the local community. I'm really glad I remembered all 6 of those, because lots of people talked about their anxiety dreams in advance. My anxiety dream before TED was that DeLaSoul came round to my house to stay for the night, the 80's rap trio, and I couldn't find enough bedding for them. And so the fact that I've remembered all those things is great, I've broken through that barrier, that's fantastic! And when I was preparing this talk I asked various people "What were their highlights of being around this process for the last 5 or 6 years?" One person said it was the event at the end of Transition Streets where we showed a film called 'Start something together' which you can find on YouTube, which documents that process.  All the people from all the different Transition Streets came together to the Civic Hall and had a big kind of celebration. She said that she was almost moved to tears by the energy that that had created. Another friend of mine who organised a hustings event in the run up to the election where we invited all the local candidates rather than just having them sit there answer questions, we talked about this, about the kind of economy we wanted to create for the place, and then asked them "how are you going to support that, how are you going to help that into being?" My personal highlight was this headline from the Western Morning News, the lead editorial no less, which contained this sentence: "In an interesting twist to the climate change debate, communities and individuals once seen as quaintly idiosyncratic for their way out views, have now become mainstream and may yet provide some of the answers to the biggest questions we all face". One day a German guy came, about 2 years ago, into the office of TTT. He said: "I have come all the way from Germany to see the famous Transition Town Totnes and you still have cars!" Well, you might like to temper your expectations a little bit you know!  But it's really interesting reflect over the last 5 years about how this has spread. And the best kind of analogy that I can come up with is like mycorrhiza, an incredibly fine fungus, one of the main things which gives forests their resilience, it gives soil their resilience. If I had an inch cube of mycorrhiza-rich soil here it would contain 10 miles of mycorrhiza. And what it does, it's like a neural network between all the different parts of it that enable it to spread excess nutrients around, communicate risk, communicate disease or threats to it and so on, it's an extraordinary thing. In a sense Transition is a bit like inoculating a community with something like that in that it runs and so our German friend who came he was looking for all the fruits, but a lot of what it does, it runs under the surface, it fruits where you expect, but it also fruits where you don't expect. Research that we did showed that for example when Transition Streets had only just started, it hadn't had any publicity or anything, we did a focus group completely on the other side of town and a woman talked about the first place where we had a pilot going on and said "it's great over there, it's like the war, they're like a village, they have street parties and everything." That sense had started to percolate through.   One local councillor I talked to said: "the best thing TTT has done is bring people together." If it had just been something that happened in Totnes, that wouldn't really have been that much use, but actually what happened is something has germinated there, has spread and spread and spread. There are now Transition initiatives in 34 countries, thousands of initiatives places all of this in their own context, whether it be Brazil or Barcelona, Bologna or Brixton, and using it to create their own banks, their own energy companies, their own food systems and so on. It's an exhilarating thing to see and observe the spread of. It's a story which is able to bring 300 people from the town out about 2 weeks ago down onto the former derelict industrial site in the town for a big photograph to launch a campaign about bringing this site, which used to employ 163 people back into community ownership. To develop it as a catalyst for a Transition economy for the town, what we call the Atmos project. It's a story which is really about communities seeing community resilience as where their economic future lies. And Jay Tompt who works with us, wrote a beautiful blog about it which contained this sentence I wanted to read to you: "There is plenty to keep and our children busy for a long time to come, the important thing is that we've begun, we know that we're the ones we've been waiting for, so we're just doing it, we don't need the cavalry, we're already here”. So this has really been a process about ordinary people and a process that has dirt under its fingernails and has seen the opportunity this time around, it's a really really exhilarating thing to be part of.  I just want to finish with one of my favourite quotes which is from my children's favourite story book which is 'Comet in Moominland', written in 1946 by Tove Jansson. I think captures what the essence of Transition more than any academic paper on the subject I ever heard or I've ever written about it. "It was a funny little path winding here and there, dashing off in different directions, sometimes even tying a knot in itself from sheer joy. You don't get tired of a path like that and I'm not sure that it doesn't get you home quicker in the end." Thank you very much.

The Festival of Transition has begun!

Here is some updated information on the Festival of Transition: The nationwide 'Festival of Transition', coordinated by nef (the new economics foundation) and the Transition Network, has begun, running until 20th June, the first day of the 20th UN Earth Summit in Rio.   Instead of flying to Brazil, the Festival gives people the opportunity to do something positive about climate change and the economic crisis in their own communities. The Festival is a unique mixture of walks, talks and a DIY day of action on 20th June.  It combines a series of organised events at festivals, museums and institutions around the country with an open invitation to schools, workplaces and community groups to stage their own 'real-life experiments' in living differently on 20th June.  Full details of Festival events can be found at http://www.festivaloftransition.net. The 'What if?' events include: 19th/20th May (this weekend!) at the Bristol Festival of Ideas: 'What if… we left the oil in the ground?' with author James Marriot and 'What if…  we could create money as well as the banks?' with nef and the newly launched Bristol Pound 30th May at the Hay Festival: 'What if… we turned back the climate clock?' with poet Lemn Sissay and Greenpeace chief executive John Sauven and 'What if… cities produced our food?' in association with the Soil Association 6th June at the Royal  College of Art: 'What if… creatives redesigned economics?' with nef and Occupy Design 13th June at the Museum of East Anglian Life: 'What if.. the sea keeps rising?' 14th June at Manchester Museum: 'What if… Manchester was as sustainable as Havana?'  The 'Transition Walks' include: 22nd May: 'In the shadow of the City: A walk through the history of the Corporation',  with author Nick Robins 23rd May: 'On London’s Oil Road: A journey to the heart of the energy economy', in association with Platform London Community groups and Transition initiatives have already started pledging to stage 24-hour experiments in living differently on 20th June via the Festival website.  Does your Transition initiative have any plans to do anything? Andrew Simms from the new economics foundation said: "This summer thousands of people will fly to Brazil to wait and watch as politicians struggle to mark the 20th anniversary of the Rio Earth Summit, hoping for action to meet the scale of the climate crisis. International political action is vital, but we've moved beyond leaving it all to big, global conferences. People are impatient and want to take action themselves. The Festival of Transition is an opportunity to question, taste, and experiment with living better within life-preserving environmental limits. We believe that once people take a first step, they'll want to keep on walking."

Transition Voice

Transition stories: What is community?

One of the things that brought my wife Hannah and I together as a couple is a shared vision of community and sustainable living, and a desire to work for social justice and community power. But, as Hannah’s mother likes to ask, “what is community?” Good question! In 2010, we bought a home in the Egleston Square part of Boston after living in the area for about a year.  With so many of our friends so mobile and moving off to California every few years, with family spread out across the US (for me) and the UK (for Hannah), with different cultures, languages, religions and histories all jumbled together in an urban neighborhood like Egleston Square, sitting at the cross section of Jamaica Plain and Roxbury neighborhoods of Boston -- we also wondered, “What exactly is community?” Well, we decided to find out by acting, so that Spring we went door to door to ask our neighbors about the vacant lot at 195 Boylston Street – what was its history and what did people want to see happen there? We heard that thirty years ago it had a house on it that had burned down and was vacant ever since. At one point neighborhood kids used to play baseball in the lot. Later it had been a memorial site for a shooting victim, and, ironically but not symbolically, a place were people had buried unwanted trash. When we proposed cleaning it up and making it a useable space for neighbors, everyone we spoke with was delighted. Some even joined in to help. Changes Over the next two years a growing group of volunteers organized work days to clean up the lot, plant wild flowers, apple trees, raspberries, blueberries, red currants, and build raised beds for greens. Stonybrook Fine Arts donated a birdbath, complete with water slide and small chairs for sunbathing sparrows. ACE, on Centre Street, donated gloves, shovels, yard waste bags, and other tools. City Feed donated coffee and fruit. And dozens of neighbors donated time, plants, ice cream, cold beers, rain barrels, composters, tools, a “peace pole”, and expertise in permaculture, soil remediation, fruit tree planting, carpentry, community organizing, painting, sculpture, Spanish translation, fundraising, strategic planning, and more. Power to the people After each workday, with the chaos of ten or twenty folks buzzing about, I always felt energized and grateful for what we accomplished together. I feel pride in my adopted neighborhood and connected to new friends. I especially feel joy at watching our garden grow. In the winter a core group of us keeps the fire burning, planning the next season over weekend brunches filled with laughter and good humor. Thus was born the Egleston Community Orchard, an ongoing experiment in planting the seeds of community and growing fruit. This May, we marched from the Egleston Peace Garden to join in the Wake Up The Earth parade, and we were at the festival handing out wildflower packets, making new friends, and sharing inspiration and ideas with others. Good things are happening in our neighborhood, and neighborhoods like it. Maybe there’s something to this Great Turning thing. –Orion Kriegman, Transition Voice

From Italy, with love

The carrot and stick come in many different shapes and sizes. We're chasing the low-fi one. Photo: WoodleyWonderWorks via Flickr. My wife and I have decided to chase a different carrot. We’ve left behind our teaching careers, pared down our belongings, strapped what’s needed to our backs and are in search of new skills. We’re passionate about learning to grow food, secure water, and build natural structures. If we’re lucky we’ll find a community interested in the same things Many people in our lives think we’re being a bit extreme.They say things like, How will you live without insurance or an income? How long are you going to do this? Do you have a pension or a savings? What about your bills? These are legitimate questions and concerns. But none of them should stop us or anyone else from evolving in new directions. Yes, I’m writing about evolving. It’s precisely the reason for our change of direction. After all, many of us live in a culture where Billy Joel claims, “We didn’t start the fire,” REM warns that, “It’s the end of the world as we know it,” and Matchbox Twenty wants to see ,”How far we’ve come.” Well, how far have we come in a culture that believes infinite growth on a finite planet somehow adds up? On the road again After almost one year on the road it’s obvious our transition isn’t going to be a walk in the park. To be fair, my wife is thriving in our new life. She, of course, is fearless. I, on the other hand, have some issues. Nature (which I’m clearly part of) scares the crap out of me at times. I have no doubt nature will bat last as Guy McPherson so aptly states. All naturehas to do is flinch and I jump out of my Merrell boots. I’m learning more about myself and the culture that supports my existence and that’s really whole the point of our decision. If someone had told me that I would’ve learned how to milk goats, catch a chicken, build a food dehydrator, make compost, install underground sprinklers, build straw bale and cob structures, put a roof on a greenhouse, and make cordage out of a various plants (and in my wife’s case a sheep’s intestine) in my first year I would have laughed in their face. But I learned much more about the importance of community and what it takes to live off grid. This first year has been nothing less than spectacular. Sharing a home with professors, naturalists, artists, musicians, and even a former Goldman Sachs employee (turned homesteader) has enriched our lives beyond measure. You can see some of this in our video journaling, here. We currently work in Italy on the property of a restored 15th century garrison turned homestead. It’s a bountiful vantage point that allows us tosit back and smile at our old life. Don’t get us wrong; we loved our old living arrangement, but it was no longer enough. We still live a life of privilege with little resistance. With great privilege comes great responsibility Our choice to try and become less dependent upon this culture is an act of privilege as well. Yes, we gave up our cars but we still drive occasionally and we still fly in airplanes. One could say we’re trying to move towards the exit of this culture even though we’re still entrenched in it. Our baby steps seem enormous to most of our friends and family. Chasing a different carrot is our attempt to take responsibility for our personal actions and transition out of an industrial culture that feels entitled to every square inch of the planet. We’re fairly certain this journey will take the rest of our lives. Until next time…and we’ll see you on the road. –Mike and Karen Sliwa, Transition Voice

Sustainability and Subsistence? Review of The Good Life

One person's hard working version of the good life might be another person's worst nightmare. How to bridge the gap? Photo: ZeroOne via Flickr. We each seek what, for us, is "the good life." Because that’s so personal, "the good life" is almost undefinable. In The Good Life: How to Create a Sustainable and Fulfilling Lifestyle author Sherry Ackerman describes her “good life”, and, while she gave me practical ideas to make my life better, she didn't make a believer out of me. Farming in Vermont Ackerman’s story is compelling. After earning a Ph.D. in philosophy, she moved to the mountains of Vermont to a farm, determined to live in a sustainable manner. She married a local, had two children, taught at a nearby college, and attained the sustainable lifestyle she sought. The first place where I begged to differ was comparing sustainable living then (1970s) to subsistence farming in the Great Depression. Ackerman had income from teaching college, from boarding horses, and from teaching dressage -- very different from the Great Depression. That lifestyle was subsistence because that was the only option. Ackerman's description of Vermont farm life is idyllic but isn't honest about the tremendous physical toll. There’s satisfaction in growing something yourself and feeding your family that way, in giving back to the planet instead of taking from it. But some of Ackerman's practices take you back to a time most don't want to experience. For example, if "the good life" means squatting over a bucket on your back porch so you can use your own urine to keep scavenging animals from your garden, I have to say, for me, that's not the good life. However, this is the life she thrives in. But the lifestyle is rigid: You either go all in or not. I wonder if this extreme (and she fully admits her choices are extreme from what the rest of us consider the norm) lifestyle can fit everyone. It is individualistic and insular, and my concern is a mini-balkanization of local communities. A dozen things you can do The best parts of her book are addenda to each chapter titled, "A Dozen Things You Can Do." The lists relate to the chapter topic and are practical and definitely doable. If the whole book had been "how-to" applications of these lists, I would have enjoyed the entirety of it. A simpler life or else? The Good Life: How to Create a Sustainable and Fulfilling Lifestyle, by Sherry L. Ackerman, Hermitage House, 2010, 209 pp., $18.95. Philosophically, Ackerman makes a strong, positive case for a paradigm shift in how we live our lives, but she doesn't explain what happens with those who don't or won't shift paradigms. In her simpler, more sustainable life, what happens to those who don't want to live merely by subsistence? What would happen if a majority followed Ackerman's example? Do we drag the remaining minority into that simpler life? Ackerman doesn't address this. She doesn't go as far as "my way or the highway," but she doesn't account for dissenters to her lifestyle. Consistency Ackerman's consistency is admirable. When she became vegan, she realized she couldn't grow specific vegetables in Vermont. She moved to California and continued her sustainable lifestyle there. The Good Life is, overall, a good read and provides deep insight into why someone chooses a sustainable lifestyle. If that's your inclination, it will tell you how to go about it. It may even convince you to adopt it. If that's not your inclination, but you want to be a more responsible citizen of Planet Earth, it will show you how to be that, as well. –Phyllis Anne “Maggie” Duncan, Transition Voice

Postcarbon Cities

Getting Out From Behind the Wheel

The New York Times' "Green Inc." blog explores reactions to a previous article on the Vauban car-free development in Freiburg, Germany. Post Carbon Cities author Daniel Lerch is quoted in this article.

Small, Green and Good: The role of neglected cities in a sustainable future

Smaller cities have a distinctive and vital role to play in the work of the new century: they will be critical in the move to local agriculture and the development of renewable energy industries. Their underused or vacant industrial space and surrounding tracts of farmland make them ideal sites for sustainable land-use policies, or "smart growth." (This article quotes Post Carbon Cities author Daniel Lerch.)

Post Carbon Cities ending daily news posts

As of 10 January 2009 we are no longer collecting news articles on the Post Carbon Cities website. When we started this service two years ago, news and information on city responses to energy and climate uncertainty was hard to come by. Climate change and fossil fuel depletion have since become widely recognized concerns among local decision-makers and planners, so the time has come to shift our efforts elsewhere. Post Carbon Institute continues to do research on how local governments can best respond to and prepare for energy and climate uncertainty. Our database of local government actions will remain on the site and continue to be updated, as will our accompanying resource database of relevant resolutions and reports. If you'd like to keep following the news we find interesting, you can visit or subscribe to our feed on the bookmark-sharing site del.icio.us. Our News Archives will remain online for a few more months. Daniel Lerch, author of Post Carbon Cities: Planning for Energy and Climate Uncertainty, will continue blogging and posting articles on the Post Carbon Institute website. We hope our work at Post Carbon Institute continues to be useful to you. Please send your questions, concerns and suggestions to us using the contact form.

Community Solution

NEW Plug-in Scam Website

Visit www.pluginscam.org Due to the growing concern about the prevalence of misinformation about energy -- and especially information relative to plug-in electric vehicles, Pat created a website, PlugInScam.org, where he writes regular blog postings and white papers addressing vehicle electrification. Car companies, government agencies, and our President are involved in covering up the actual fuel economy (MPG) and associated carbon dioxide emissions of such vehicles.  PlugInScam.org is devoted to exposing the "false solution" of plug-in cars, both battery electric vehicles (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV). Its objective is to inform people about the MPG misrepresentation for BEVs and PHEVs done to provide false hope for the "clean" electrification of personal transportation. The main purpose of this website is to expose government misrepresentation of the miles per gallon (MPG) ratings of plug-in cars. Pat believes conventional gasoline hybrids combined with real time ride sharing, represents the best approach for the nation to significantly reduce its use of gasoline. He and his wife own a Toyota Prius and a Honda Insight.

Who Will Kill the Electric Car this Time? Part 4

Pat Murphy       May 2, 2011 Summarizing EV/PHEV performance --  1996 to 2011 Attempting to evaluate car mileage performance from past and present EPA labels is not the same as actually testing them. The Leaf and Volt have only been available for a few months and extensive performance testing has not been done. Hopefully the EPA performance values are reasonably accurate. Table 4-1 combines the data from the previous parts of this analysis (table 2-2 to 2-4) a past and present approximation of 37 mpg for a range of EVs, very close to the Leaf average of 36 mpg. Table 4-1 Combined New and Older EV Cars This is a much lower appraisal of actual PHEV and EV mileage performance than the estimates of the EPA and car manufacturers. As a general rule one could reduce any mileage numbers shown on an EPA label for electric cars by roughly 2/3 to be more accurate. Comparing different fuels using different modes of energy generation (power plant generators versus internal combustion engines) is tricky. However, it is not unsolvable unless one has an interest in distorting the information. Unfortunately government and auto makers are marketing, not measuring. It is notable that the first EV car, the GM EV1, seems to have better mileage than the latest model, the Nissan Leaf. And the Leaf does not have significantly higher performance that the RAV 4 EV. The mileage performance of the new generation of electric cars is not outstanding. Note that the PHEV Volt and BEV Leaf are very close in terms of fuel economy. Comparing the BEV/PHEV to the HEV Figure 3-1 of the previous section of this analysis pointed out that the concept of an ever improving mileage for PHEVs as the battery storage increased was misleading. The change from an HEV, which is a gasoline car, to a PHEV which is an electric car, does not result in an automotive improvement in mpg. I have previously noted that the original 41 mpg Prius delivered to the U.S. in 2002 had a major negative impact on the CARB ZEVs once hybrid cars were included in CARB's portfolio of low emissions cars under the designation of Partial Zero Emissions Vehicles (PZEVs). It is important to understand how a more contemporary HEV will compare to the later electric cars? We are fortunate that the new BEV (Leaf) and the new PHEV (Volt) can be compared directly to a new HEV, the 2011 Prius. Table 4-2 shows the mileage comparisons of the newer cars. Table 4-2: Comparison of adjusted mileage numbers for Volt, Leaf, Prius The electric vehicles accurate mpg corrections for the energy cost of generating electricity have been derived in earlier parts of this analysis. The Prius mpg is taken from the EPA label. This number is surprising to those who have accepted the EPA and car companies way of calculating Mile per Gallon Equivalence. But the approach used here are more in line with the laws of thermodynamics. Adding the Prius makes a difficult job of comparing architectures even harder. One way to make a normalized comparison is to measure the CO2 that is generated from the various options. Both electric cars and gasoline cars generate CO2 as fuel is burned -- either gasoline in the car itself or coal and natural gas at a remote power plant. Such a comparison is possible now with the latest car models. The CO2 Method of Comparison -- EV/PHEV vs. Prius CO2 measures are the most important metrics for cars and their influence on the climate. It is not an artificially calculated "miles per gallon equivalence (MPGe)". Nor is it a question of how much money is saved. Gasoline is a small part of the average person's budget and should be viewed as secondary compared to the fate of the atmosphere. The computation of CO2 from the options is not difficult. The EPA web site entitled Green Power Equivalency Calculator Methodologies[1] states: "The national average carbon dioxide output rate for generated electricity in 2005 was 1,329 lbs CO2 per megawatt-hour (EPA 2009), which translates to 1,422 lbs CO2 per megawatt-hour for delivered electricity (assuming 7 percent in transmission and distribution losses)." This is equal to 1.422 lbs of CO2 per kilowatt hour. Three miles per kWh is a reasonable approximation for the electrical cars analyzed as shown in Table 4-1. Dividing the 1.422 lbs. of CO2 per kilowatt hour by 3 gives about .47 lbs of CO2 per mile. Compare this to a 50 mpg 2011 Prius. Burning a gallon of gasoline generates 19.4 pounds of CO2. [2] A 50 mpg Prius will generate 19.4/50 or .39 lbs of CO2 per mile. It appears that the Prius generates less CO2 per mile driven than the electric models. However there is an advantage for the Prius in that the approximately 17% of energy used to refine and deliver the gasoline is not included.[3] This was pointed out in part 2 in the derivation of the data in table 2-3. To adjust for this, the .39 lbs. of CO2 per mile must be divided by .83 (100% -- 17%) giving a new number of .47 lbs. of CO2 per mile for the Prius, very close to that of the electric cars. Applying the same normalizing principle, the mileage of the Prius after considering the embodied energy of gasoline is 41.5 (50 mpg times .83). This is close to the mpg equivalent of the average of old and new EVs. From this cursory analysis, the Volt, Prius and Leaf show similar performance in terms of mileage per energy expended as well as for CO2. In February 2011 the prestigious American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) gave a rating to the top 13 cars. [4] The Leaf was 2nd with a "green" score of 54, the Prius was 4th with a score of 52 and the Volt was 13th with a score of 48. Wisely the ACEEE did not put a mpg number on the Leaf but listed miles per kWh (mpkWh) -- 3.15 mpkWh for city and 2.72 mpkWh for highway, with an average of 2.93 mpkWh, very close to my number of 3.02 derived in column 5 of table 4-1. The CO2 Utility and Future Mix Argument Figure 4-1 is from a European study that shows CO2 emissions are a function of power plant generating fuel mix.[5] The top horizontal line represents emissions for a new gasoline car. The lower horizontal line represents emissions from a new diesel car. (There is no line for a new hybrid car).  The numbers are displayed in grams of CO2 per kilometer rather than the pounds of CO2 per mile as discussed previously. Thus the charts use is limited to showing EV emissions compared to non hybrid cars in different countries. The differing levels of CO2 generated in the different countries are a reflection of their fuel mix and power plant efficiency. China, with the fastest growth in car usage, has high emissions because of its heavy use of coal. India is not shown on the chart but is another coal dependent country that is experience rapid car population growth. This illustrates the importance of understanding that electric car success is very limited by the existing infrastructure of power plants as well as available fuels. Figure 4-1: CO2 from EVs by Nation Might the CO2 output of an electric car change if more renewables were available? Yes, to some extent, but consider the estimates for electricity from future renewables. The following projection (figure 4-2) shows the energy history and projections for electricity from different fuels. Recall that cars last on average about 14 years so the initial Volts will have been scrapped while renewable energy's part of the mix will have only increased 4% – from 10% to 14%. [6] Figure 4-2: Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release Overview Sources of Electricity Mileage performance for new cars typically increases about 1.5% per year.[7] But the number of cars being added to the world car fleet, particularly in the third world, is increasing much faster than the miles per gallon performance. It is doubtful if the CO2 decrease from EVs and PHEVs will even be measurable. Figure 4-3 illustrates this concept of an increasing car population compared to increasing mileage performance. Figure 4-3: Comparison of fleet growth and gasoline use It is not easy to understand the implications of figure 4-3 because it is counterintuitive to our normal mode of thinking. This situation of increasing energy consumption with energy efficiency improvements (illustrated in figure 4) was described by economist William Jevons in 1865. The proposition, called the Jevons paradox or the Jevons effect, says the technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used tends to increase, rather than decrease, the rate of consumption. Contrary to common intuition technological improvements will not always reduce fuel consumption. Therefore as cars get more efficient with better gas mileage, more people in the third world will replace their bicycle or moped with a small car. The Solar Electricity Option -- Capital Costs It could be argued that the electricity for Volt or Leaf will be supplied by solar panels. If a Leaf gets 3 miles per kWh and is driven 15,000 miles per year, then the annual electricity usage would be 4,500 kWh per year. In Ohio, a 1 kW PV system delivers about 1,300 kWh/year. A 4 kW system would be necessary to support an electric car. Assuming an installation cost of $10,000/Kw, the cost to supply a 4 kW system would be about $40,000 which should be added to the initial capital costs of the car. Of course gasoline savings would offset this. At 9 cents per mile, the gasoline savings per year would be about $1,350. Who will Kill the Electric Car This Time? This analysis is a continuation of earlier analysis of the Plug In Hybrid (PHEV) and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) first discussed in New Solutions #9, June 2006.[8] It was developed further in my books Plan C (published in 2008) and Spinning Our Wheels (published in 2010). Little has changed in five years in terms of how mileage is computed for electric vehicles. In reviewing that 2006 paper, I was reminded of how many well known national leaders -- including U.S. Senators -- were quoting mileage numbers such as 500 mpg for PHEVs. Today the Volt label -- the first commercial PHEV -- shows 60 mpg, well below those claims and well below the 100 + mpg claimed by CalCars for its modified Prius. It is also well below President Obama's 150 mpg goal. Furthermore the Volt 60 mpg number is too high – the actual number as derived in the parts of this blog will likely be in the range of 35-40 mpg. The hyperbole associated with the PHEV was (and is) excessive. There does not seem to be a major improvement in miles per kWh for the Leaf, the current representative of BEVs. Nor is there a major improvement in the Volt when operating solely as a BEV running off its grid charged batteries. The older RAV4 EV is still performance competitive with the newest BEVs. The major changes in the latest EVs are increases in battery storage capacity and increases in range rather than an improvement in miles per kWh. When fairly evaluated the cars get about the same miles per gallon equivalent of fuel (considering generation and transmissions energy costs) and generate about the same amount of CO2 as that of the newest 2011 Prius. This is not surprising when one considers their size, weight and rolling resistance which are similar. The performance is still very questionable. And it's hard to trust the manufacturers. Consumers Report suggests that the mileage is about 2 miles per kWh for the Volt and 3 miles per kWh for the Leaf.[9] Using site energy versus source energy this means an equivalent of about of 24 -- 28 mpg. Consumer reports noted in their tests: "While in electric mode, the dash display shows 250 mpg, which is a little misleading because in that mode the car isn’t using any gasoline. It’s like reporting a kid’s perfect grade-point average on the first day of school." [10] So the answer to the question of Who Will Kill the Electric Vehicle This Time? is the same answer to the question posed in the 2006 documentary film entitled Who Killed the Electric Car? The original Prius, as a partial ZEV (PZEV), undermined the case for the CARB ZEV program which lead to CARB changes and finally the so-called "killing" of the electric car. It is still the hybrid car, best exemplified by the 2011 Prius (50 mpg versus 41 mpg for the 2002 Prius and 46 mpg for the 2004 model) that will challenge the new generation of BEVs as well as the PHEVs. Other high mileage conventional hybrids have been recently announced including a hybrid version of the Toyota Yaris car that utilizes the Toyota Hybrid Synergy Drive (HSD) technology from the Prius in the B-segment (subcompact) cars. This marks Toyota's first downsizing of its HSD technology. The popular Honda Fit (Jazz in Europe) is now available in a hybrid version in the subcompact market in Europe.[11] [12] A new movie by the director Chris Paine of Who Killed the Electric Car? fame, entitled Revenge of the Electric Car is near release and extols the virtues of the products previously discussed such as the Leaf and the Tesla.[13] The film may be an example of premature triumphalism. The success for EV options (battery or pluggable hybrid) is not certain. The misrepresentations of both kinds of designs generated great enthusiasm but claimed miles per gallon (mpg) have never been verified. It would be helpful of the mileage claims that might appear in this film had been carefully considered to deal with the misrepresentation issues discussed here. In a recent WSJ article[14] Toyota again repeated its commitment to the hybrid car, noting that the company built 3 million hybrids from 1997 through 2010. In April 2011, Toyota sold its one millionth Prius in the United States. Two million Prius' have been sold world wide.[15] A larger model of the Prius will be shipped in 2011 and a smaller one in 2012. Hopefully the small model will be in the 55-60 mpg range. Toyota created a new standard of auto efficiency in 1997 with gasoline hybrid technology (HEV) that is now marketed in some form by just about every automobile manufacturer. Toyota also has committed to major improvements in its next generation of gasoline engines for hybrids.[16] Toyota is not against improvising. It has already announced a PHEV Prius but one with technology that is much less risky that the approach that taken by GM[17]. Before the GM Volt was even shipped, Toyota had placed 600 prototype PHEV Prius' around the world. It has been tested more than the Volt, is built on the existing Prius platform and has much more modest performance goals. It provides 13 kWh of battery storage rather than the 35 kWh of the Volt. The maximum speed will be 62 mpg. But most important it will have the high Prius gas mileage when operating in conventional mode.[18] To some extent, GM has taken a "bet your company approach" with the unique Volt while Toyota is being much more conservative and taking smaller steps building on proven designs. It may distress many should conventional hybrids continue to outperform electric cars. But the important news is that such cars are already at high performance levels. They are also proven with many different models and high numbers of such cars on the highway. We might hope for 60-70 mpg cars in the next ten years which will help us to deeply cut our CO2 emissions. The government and U.S. car manufacturers might better focus their attention on smaller cars, lower speed limits and mass transportation rather than a hi tech risky endeavor to electrify transportation. [1] http://www.epa.gov/greenpower/pubs/calcmeth.htm [2] http://www.epa.gov/oms/climate/420f05001.htm [3] [3] Fuel Economy Numbers for Electric Vehicles, Prepared by: MIT Electric Vehicle Team, March 2008 http://mit.edu/evt/summary_mpgge.pdf [4] Latest Technologies Place But Don’t Win In This Year’s Greenest Vehicles List  February 16, 2011  http://www.aceee.org/press/2011/02/latest-technologies-place-dont-win-years-greenest-vehicl [5] http://www.greencarcongress.com/2011/03/ecometrica-20110328.html Technical Paper – Your new electric car emits 75 gCO2/km (at the power station) by Gary David, ecometrica, March 2011 http://d3u3pjcknor73l.cloudfront.net/assets/media/pdf/electric_car_emits_75_gCO2_per_km.pdf [6] Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release Overview http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/pdf/0383er%282011%29.pdf [7] John German Testimony to Congress <http://energy.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?FuseAction=Hearings.Testimony&Hearing_ID=287981fa-c472-4862-857d-3913d416297e&Witness_ID=e2050b74-5cff-4f6f-9832-fec00f3ab26c> [8] Salting the Earth by Pat Murphy, Jun2 2006 http://www.communitysolution.org/pdfs/NS9.pdf [9] Electric Cars, Consumer Reports April 2011 page 15 [10] http://blogs.consumerreports.org/cars/2011/01/just-in-2011-chevrolet-volt-living-with-our-test-car.html [11] Toyota's Yaris hybrid concept anticipates B-segment hybrid strategy with first downsizing of HSD; Prius + March 2, 2011 http://www.greencarcongress.com/2011/03/yarishsd-20110302.html [12] http://www.earthtechling.com/2011/03/geneva-auto-show-honda-jazz-hybrid/ [13] "Chris Paine Returns with 'Revenge of the Electric Car'" by Jim Motavalli , New York Times, December 15, 2010, http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/12/15/chris-paine-returns-with-revenge-of-the-electric-car/ [14] WSJ article March 10, 2011 Toyota Hones Focus, Top Ranks [15] http://www.energyboom.com/transportation/toyota-sells-one-millionth-prius-united-states [16] Toyota targeting thermal efficiency of more than 45% for next-generation gasoline engines for hybrids, Green Car Congress, April 11, 2011 http://www.greencarcongress.com/2011/04/nakata-20110411.html#more [17] 2012 Toyota Prius Plug-in Hybrid – Editors’ take By: Wayne Cunningham Published on: 02/11/2011 http://reviews.cnet.com/coupe-hatchback/2012-toyota-prius-plug/4505-10867_7-34497768.html [18] The 2011 Guide to Automotive Enhancements by Toyota, WSJ April 27, 2011

Who Will Kill the Electric Car this Time? Part 3 The Pluggable Hybrid PHEV

Pat Murphy             April 29, 2011 Extending the BEV Concept Part 1 summarized the early history of the CARB Zero Emissions Program, the development of Zero Emissions Vehicles (ZEVs) and their miles per gallon ratings. Part 2 discussed the latest reincarnation of BEVs, the Nissan Leaf, first shipped in December 2010. The miles per kWh of the Leaf are in the same range as those of the CARB cars of the late 1990s. Miles per gallons overstatements were described and analyzed. The Pluggable (or Plugged In) Hybrid (PHEV) The GM EV1, delivered in late 1996, was the first Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) available for mass purchase/lease. In the following year, 1997, the first hybrid, the Prius, was delivered. The concepts of electric cars, hybrid cars and PHEVs are not new. The Plug In Hybrid concept was first demonstrated by Victor Wouk in 1974 when he combined a Buick Skylark body with a Mazda Wankel engine and lead acid batteries.[1] The project was funded by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and achieved its performance objectives; however, the EPA declined to provide additional funding. In 1976 Congress passed the Electric and Hybrid Vehicle Act for research purposes with much of the funding allocated to the U.S. national labs.[2] About two decades after Wouk's prototype, Professor Andrew Frank of the University of California at Davis (UC -- Davis) began converting conventional vehicles into PHEVs. Frank, who is said to have "re-invented" the modern Plug-In Hybrid, modified nine vehicles (six passenger sedans, SUVs, sport cars, and a GM EV1), to demonstrate the PHEV concept.[3] His program was supported by government agencies as well as by U.S. automobile companies. A modified GM EV1 prototype, which included PHEV features, was built around 1998.[4] Electric Power Research Institute The Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), a research and lobbying arm for the electric power industry, is a major advocate for the PHEV concept. EPRI has supported and funded Dr. Frank’s work. In 2000 EPRI sponsored the broad-based Hybrid Electric Vehicle Alliance (HEVA), to promote PHEVs. Alliance members included major automakers, Department of Energy (DOE) national labs, utilities, and the University of California at Davis (UC-Davis). In 2001 the Department of Energy (DOE) created the National Center of Hybrid Excellence at UC Davis, with Dr. Frank as Director. Figure 3-1 is based on an EPRI graphic that illustrates that organization's view of the relationships of conventional cars to hybrids to pluggable hybrids. It shows about a hybrid provides a 30% fuel savings over a conventional car. An example would be the 2010 Honda Civic hybrid, that gets 41 mpg, compared to a 2010 Honda Civic non-hybrid that gets 29 mpg. Figure 3--1: Gasoline Use Projections-Conventional, Hybrid and PHEVs[5] In this figure, the PHEV20 and PHEV60 show an improvement for the hybrid. But the PHEV columns do not show the electricity generating fossil fuels that substitute electricity for the gasoline. Thus the fuel savings of a PHEV20 and PHEV60 compared to a hybrid are misleading. In the case of the conventional and hybrid vehicle gallons consumed represent all the energy used in driving the cars. The PHEV20 and 60 columns do not show the fossil fuels used to generate electricity. Unfortunately misleading charts like this have been used to support the popularization of a new technology paradigm. In 2002, a non profit organization called CalCars began lobbying for the so called "Pluggable or Plug-In Hybrid" [6] receiving some of its funding from electrical utilities. In 2004, CalCars modified a standard Toyota Prius, placing additional batteries in the trunk. They called this Plug-In Hybrid the "PRIUS+".[7] The added batteries could be charged from the electricity grid and the Prius could be driven operate on these batteries alone without using the gasoline engine. Using batteries, the car could go no faster than 35 mph, a fact glossed over by its supporters.[8] CalCars claimed that the mileage was greater than 100 mpg -- their slogan was "100 mpg +." [9] In May 2006 CalCars flew a plug-in Prius+ to the nation's capital from California. Together with two other organizations, Set America Free and the Plug-In Hybrid Consortium, CalCars put on a marketing blitz of the Prius 100+ mpg car, demonstrating it to Senators, Representatives, congressional staff, reporters, builders, and tourists. The mantra was "It's here now!" Four and one half years later the first commercial plug-in hybrid shipped -- the Chevrolet Volt -- with a performance level well below 100 mpg +.  CalCars and EPRI and other interested parties continue to promote the supposedly 100+ mpg vehicle even though this performance claim was never substantiated and in some cases it was refuted.[10] U.S. Government Support for the PHEV During the Clinton/Gore years the government formed and directed the Program for a New Generation of Vehicles (PNGV). One result of the eight year PNGV program were three concept diesel hybrids that obtained from 60-80 mpg. They were shown at the Detroit Auto Show in 1998.[11] In 2001, the Bush administration redirected the PNGV program away from the development of high mileage diesel hybrids to a new program, FreedomCAR, which emphasized fuel cell propulsion. In 2002, the CARB ZEV program began changing its ZEV standards. With the decline of the CARB ZEV program and the redirection of the PNGV program, Detroit and the government turned their attention (again) to the ill fated fuel cell car on which it had expended so much time and energy years before. Just as Bush changed the car propulsion direction set by Clinton so did Obama change the car propulsion direction set by Bush. While campaigning in 2008, presidential candidate Obama, in his "New Energy for America" speech given in August of 2008, set a goal to put one million 150 mpg PHEVs on the roads by 2015.[12] [13] He proposed a $7,000 tax credit for such cars that would be built in America. He also proposed that $4 billion be allocated to the development and manufacturing of the 150 mpg pluggable hybrid. In May 2009 [14] President Obama cancelled the fuel cell FreedomCar program in order to focus the nation's resources on electric cars, with an emphasis on PHEVs. On January 25, 2011 President Obama reaffirmed his commitment to the U.S. electric car industry in his State of the Union speech.[15] His latest proposal called for a $7,500 on-the-spot rebate for new electric car purchases, replacing the earlier tax credit. The 2008 goal of 1 million 150 mpg PHEVs was restated (and modified) for the U.S. to become the first nation with 1 million "advanced technology vehicles," a terminology change from PHEVs lauded in 2008. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and battery cars from other countries were added to the list of supported technologies. The Department of Energy (DOE) supports the Nissan Leaf BEV as an example of foreign non PHEV. In addition, Recovery Act investments have included $2.4 billion in U.S. funding for battery and electric drive component manufacturing, and for electric drive demonstration and infrastructure, [16] including support for Nissan Leaf U.S. manufacturing facilities. [17] For sixteen years the nation's car companies and government agencies vacillated from fuel cell to diesel hybrid to fuel cell again and now to the PHEV. Yet the PHEV concept has still not been proven to be sound. The first PHEV -- the GM Volt -- has a mileage rating of 60 mpg. This is probably exaggerated but even that optimistic number is well below the 150 mpg goal set by the president. A million "advanced technology vehicles" may be on the road by 2015 but their mileage will be much closer to 50 mpg than 150 mpg. The nation has made a massive commitment to a technology that has not been thoroughly analyzed or demonstrated. It has certainly been marketed -- particularly by the electric utilities and their research arm, EPRI. But with production cars now available for testing by a large number of people, more realistic performance numbers should be forthcoming. Hyping the Volt GM expressed regrets within a few years of cancelling the EV1 program. CEO Rick Waggoner, when asked in 2006 what his most-regretted decision was, responded that it was "axing the EV1 electric-car program and not putting the right resources into hybrids".[18] A year later GM R&D chief Larry Burns said, in reference to a prototype plug-in hybrid based on the GM EV1 his engineers had developed, “If we could turn back the hands of time, we could have had the Chevy Volt 10 years earlier.”[19] In August of 2009, GM President and CEO Fritz Henderson (who had replaced Waggoner) announced that the Volt mileage would be 230 mpg[20] initiating a  public relations campaign using a cutesy logo to market the number (Figure 3-2). The 230 mpg was quickly analyzed by different experts, who exposed its falsity.[21] GM was ridiculed and four months later Henderson was replaced. Figure 3-2: GM Exaggeration of Volt Performance The EPA did not challenge this hyperbole but made an innocuous statement invalidating the number while praising GM for its efforts saying: "EPA has not tested a Chevy Volt and therefore cannot confirm the fuel economy value claimed by GM. EPA does applaud GM’s commitment to designing and building the car of the future – an American-made car that will save families money, significantly reduce our dependence on foreign oil and create good-paying American jobs. We’re proud to see American companies and American workers leading the world in the clean energy innovations that will shape the 21st century economy." [22] Part 2 of this series analyzed the Nissan Leaf in the context of being a decade later reincarnation of the EVs of the late 1990s. The Volt is representative of a conceptual PHEV, which did not exist in the period when CARB was looking for a low emissions automotive solution. A few conventional vehicles had been modified to be PHEVs by Andrew Frank of UC-Davis one of them a GM. But there were no real tests made and Frank's efforts were interesting but by no means a proof of concept. PHEV hyperbole increased with the CalCars statement of "100 mpg +" for its modified Prius. The UC-Davis automotive center, CalCars and EPRI have been the sources for most of the claims that have generated public interest. Unfortunately, there has never an independent unbiased analysis. And in some actual cases there have been disappointments.[23] The PHEV has been marketed more than it has been engineered. Supposedly the December 2010 shipment of the GM Volt has now provided a mass produced model for the PHEV concept. A critical question is how relevant are the newer performance claims. EPA and Volt Performance Labels: The EPA finally provided mpg figures for the Volt in November, 2010, only one month before the first shipments in December 2010. [24] The Volt information from the EPA web site is shown in Figure 3-3. [25] Figure 3-3: EPA Website Volt Mileage The Volt label includes two operational modes – one as a BEV like the Leaf (Electricity Only heading) and one as a conventional gasoline car (Premium Gas Only heading). The label that is affixed to the car is shown in Figure 3-4. Unfortunately, the all electric value of 93 mpg and 36 kWh for 100 miles has less information than the EPA website since it does not show city and highway mileage separately. The combined mileage of 60 mpg is given in smaller print in the lower left hand corner of the label (heading-How This Vehicle Compares) but does not refer to combined city and highway which has been the format for cars in the past. Rather it uses a new term "combined composite" which is some unknown combination of the mileage of gasoline and electrical. The label also shows an MGPequivilence of 33.7 kWh per gallon of gasoline (2nd line from bottom), which has been discussed in previous parts of this series.  Also shown on the label is a price of $3.20 per gallon of gasoline and $.11 per kWh of electricity. This is used to calculate the fuel costs in the middle of the label ($601 and $1,302). The distance that can be traveled on a fully charged battery is shown to be 35 miles. Figure 3-4: Volt Window Label The label has a section in the lower right entitled "Examples: Charging Routines". Much of the information in this section is not explained but it can be derived. Table 3-1 includes the information from this section as well as additional information that provides the derivation of Fuel Economy MPG. Table 3--1: Extended Volt Label "Charging Routines" The first four columns of table 3-1 contain the same contents as the Examples: Charging Routines from figure 3-4. Some simplifications are: The first column of the table (Mdbfc – which stands for Miles Driven Between Full Charges) lists four unique trip miles -- 30, 45, 60 and 75 miles -- and a fifth "Never Charge" option. The second column (FE MPG – which stands for Fuel Economy MPG) shows mpg numbers well above the numbers on the rest of the label (93 mpg for electric and 37 mpg for engine). This is explained later. Column 3 (EC-kWh – which stands for Electricity Consumed in kilowatt hours) shows 10.9 kWh for 30 miles. This is computed by taking 30% of the 36 kWh per 100 miles shown in the upper left quadrant of on the label. Column 4 (EFEC which stands for Electricity + Fuel Energy Cost) shows for the 30 mile trip a cost per mile of 4 cents, calculated by multiplying 11 cents per kWh times 10.9 kWh and dividing that result by 30 miles. The other mileage numbers are greater than the 35 mile range so each mileage number assumes that the total capacity of the battery (12.9 kWh) was used. The rest of the mileage numbers in column 4 can be calculated by dividing the mileage into electricity and gas, multiplying the electricity miles by 11 cents per kilowatt hours, multiplying the gas miles by 9 cents per gasoline mile, summing the two costs and dividing the total costs by the total trip miles. Misleading and Missing Information The determination of the fuel economy mileage (column 2 -- FE MPG) is not explained on the label. Columns 5-6 are added which are used for the derivation of the EPA in calculation mileage. Their contents are: Column 5 is headed MDUG which stands for Miles Driven Under Gasoline Column 6 is headed %MG,  which is the percent of the total miles driven Column 7 is headed MPG which is the miles per gallon to be calculated. These are the calculated numbers given without explanation in column 2. Since the Volt can be driven 35 miles on the electricity in the battery, determining the "Miles Driven Under Gasoline" (column 5) is simply a matter of  subtracting 35 miles from the total miles in column 1. (Note this applies only to the rows with trip miles of 45, 60 and 75). To determine the percent of the total distance driven using gasoline (column 6 – %MG) the numbers in column 5 are divided by the corresponding number from column 1.  The final calculation, column 7, is done by dividing the number 37 (which is the mileage on the label (upper right) for gas only) by each of the numbers in column 6. Note that the results in this column are the same (with rounding) as the numbers in column 2. A Manufacturer's Explanation The reader may question the scientific rationale for this approach. The techniques were determined by marketers of the PHEV cars. An example is the Trinity car described in the book Spinning Our Wheels.[26] Figure 3-5 is from that book. Figure 3--5: AFS Trinity MPG model Recall that the algorithm process is to determine what part of a trip is driven using gasoline and dividing the miles per gallon for the gasoline part by that number. Figure 3-5 shows how the calculation is done. It gives the part driven using gasoline (Hybrid) as 20%. Dividing the 30 mpg by .2 gives the 150 mpg number. The web site for this AFS Trinity has a Frequently Asked Questions Section which includes the following question and answer[27]: Q – Why do you call this a 150mpg car if it is mostly electric? Does it really get 150 miles per gallon? A – When discussing plug-in hybrid cars, mpg figures require deeper explanation. We have calculated gasoline mileage by using average American driving patterns estimated by the U.S. Department of Transportation and simulating the EPA combined urban/highway driving cycle of the host vehicle operating only with its conventional hybrid drive train. In 2003, the U.S. Department of Transportation reported that 78% of Americans drive less than 40 miles a day. On those days, drivers of Extreme Hybrids will need no gasoline at all — even driving an SUV. Assuming that someone drives 40 miles a day, 6 days a week and 80 miles on one weekend day, total weekly distance traveled will be 320 miles. The first 280 miles are electric. The next 40 miles, on one weekend day, will use gas alone. Even if the car, while running only on gas on day 7, were to get only 20 mpg because the car were heavily laden and the driver has a "lead foot," that would still mean the driver will use just a little more than two gallons of gasoline for the week. Although this translates into 160 MPG, we use a more conservative 150 MPG to take into account that mileage will vary depending on where and how a car is driven, but we are comfortable that 150 miles per gallon of gasoline is a good number for 78% of American drivers driving the way most Americans drive The important data from the answer is that the distance traveled is 320 miles with 280 miles electricity driven and 40 miles driven using gasoline. The miles per gallon given is 20 mpg. And the calculated number given is 160 MPG (reduced to 150 MPG to be "conservative"). The formula derived above is to take the percentage of trip miles driven and divide it into the mpg. In this case the percent driven is 12.5 percent or .125 which is the result of 40 miles divided by 320 miles. Dividing the miles per gallon (20) by the percent (.125) gives 160 mpg. Readers may feel incredulous at this explanation. And wonder about the veracity of the developers.  A startup company in a garage may take this approach out of marketing desperation. But this technique is now used by the EPA and the president of the country has accepted it. Making the Volt Table Table 3- 2 is similar to the table for the RAV4 EV and Leaf provided in part 2 (table 2-3). This table shows the electric only part of the analysis. Information is from the window label upper left figure 3-4 where the 36 kWh for 100 miles is obtained. The city and highway are obtained from the website label shown in figure 3-3. Table 3-2: Volt calculations for Electric Drive Component Since the Leaf, RAV4 EV and Volt cars are in the same weight range, it is no surprise to see similar mpg. From table 2-3 (part 2) the RAV4 EV mileage is 41 mpg and the Leaf mileage is 36 mpg. The Volt combined mileage in column 7 is lower (34 mpg) which may be because it carries a gasoline engine and batteries. Using this modified view of the electrical usage of 34 mpg and combining it with the gasoline mileage from the label of 37 mpg (figure 3-4) one might assume the Volt is probably a 35 or 36 mpg car. Contrast this to the CalCars PHEV claim of "100 mpg +" and President Obama's goal of 150 mpg. The next part will show the comparison of the EV and PHEV cars to the latest Toyota Prius hybrid. [1] Victor Wouk -- The Father of the Electric Car by Sean Callery, Crabtree Publishing Company, 2009. [2] Electric and Hybrid Cars -- A History by Curtis Anderson and Judy Anderson, McFarland and Company 2005 page 67. [3] CalCars – Plug-In Hybrids: State of Play, History & Players http://www.calcars.org/history.html [4] http://electricvehiclesnews.com/History/Companies/General_Motors_EV1.htm [5] http://www.plugincenter.net/wp-content/uploads/2010/10/Electrify_Transportation_Briefing_Book.pdf [6] CalCars -- The California Cars Initiative -- 100+ MPG Hybrids http://www.calcars.org/ [7] CalCars -- 100+ MPG Hybrids http://www.calcars.org/vehicles.html [8] http://www.calcars.org/priusplus.html [9] http://www.calcars.org/calcars-news/46.html [10] Spinning Our Wheels, Page 34-35 [11] The Machine That Could -- PNGV, A government-industry Partnership by Robert M. Chapman Critical Technologies Institute, RAND, 1998 [12] http://www.barackobama.com/pdf/factsheet_energy_speech_080308.pdf [13] http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/july-dec08/obamaenergy_08-04.html [14] U.S. Drops Research Into Fuel Cells for Cars By Matthew L. Wald, May 7, 2009, New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/08/science/earth/08energy.html?_r=2 [15] http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/01/26/us-obama-speech-text-idUSTRE70P09N20110126 [15] One Million Electric Vehicles By 2015, February 2011 Status Report Department of Energy,   http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/1_million_electric_vehicles_rpt.pdf [17] Nissan breaks ground on U.S. Leaf production site May 26, 2010 http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-13746_7-20006031-48.html Read more: http://reviews.cnet.com/8301-13746_7-20006031-48.html#ixzz1EycJ5gQJ [18] http://www.grist.org/article/well-no-kidding [19] http://www.newsweek.com/2007/03/11/comin-through.html [20] Chevy Volt to get 230 mpg rating – Ultra-high mileage for GM’s electric-drive Volt could give it a marketing boost by Peter Valdes-Dapena, August 11, 2009: http://money.cnn.com/2009/08/11/autos/volt_mpg/?postversion=2009081108 [21] Nissan couldn't Leaf well enough alone by Jesse, August 15, 2009. http://www.obscurecraft.net/obscureblog/2009/08/word-problems-nissan-couldnt-l.html [22] EPA backs away from GM claim of 230 mpg for Volt by Jeremy Korzeniewski , Aug 11,  2009 http://green.autoblog.com/2009/08/11/epa-backs-away-from-gm-claim-of-230-mpg-for-volt/ [23] Spinning Our Wheels [24] EPA label for Chevy Volt: 93 MPGe EV Mode, 60 MPG Combined http://electric-vehicles-cars-bikes.blogspot.com/2010/11/epa-labels-for-chevy-volt-93-mpge-ev.html [25] Accessed April 2011. [26] Spinning Our Wheels, Page 19 [27] http://afstrinity.com/company/faq.htm#mileage

Culture Change

The Big Fix: documentary exposes BP, U.S. Gov't on Gulf disaster/Interview: the Tickells, filmmakers

One of the world's biggest environmental crimes has been more or less forgotten. This is part of our collective guilt as the world's ecosystem continues its accelerated collapse. But the new documentary film The Big Fix takes a detailed, daring look at what happened in the Gulf of Mexico with BP's Macondo offshore oil drilling rig. The story and facts that emerge are more than disturbing. The movie is soon getting its major national release in theaters and on Netflix.

Humanity's chances dimmed when many progressives love slave-jobs and cheap gasoline

With toxic consumerist habits and our propensity to overwork and condone society's violence, we qualify as the most inferior of species. At 7 billion, our huge numbers appear as some great success. But as we suffer from overpopulation and its many symptoms, we are not superior or very intelligent after all. Our kind of smarts is ultimately counterproductive and lethal -- to ourselves and fellow species. True, no species can even approach humans' ingenuity. But we can't do what most other species do (and they do it peacefully).

Population Is Popping: Why We Cover Our Ears and Eyes

As the scientific consensus jells to advise us that economic growth on a finite planet is unsustainable, and anyone can see that maximizing consumption is increasingly disastrous, we must ask ourselves what we do next. The first thing would be to focus humanity on what biology-savvy people see as the basic problem: more and more people being born who consume much more than their ancestors did. This concern is not in the corporate press or tossed around the typical local pub or bar. Why should population size be so uninteresting to the vast majority?

DeGrowth

Democracia

Baptiste Mylondo

THEMES DE RECHERCHE Revenu inconditionnel et systèmes de redistribution Sociologie du travail Économie solidaire et consommation engagée PUBLICATIONS Ouvrages : Ne pas perdre sa vie à la gagner. Pour un revenu de citoyenneté, Paris, Homnisphères, mars 2008. Des caddies et des hommes. La consommation citoyenne contre la société de consommation, Paris, La Dispute, octobre 2005. Ouvrages collectifs dirigés : La décroissance économique. Pour la soutenabilité écologique et l'équité sociale, (dir.), Bellecombe-en-Bauges, Le Croquant, octobre 2009. Pour une politique de décroissance, (dir.), Lyon, Golias, octobre 2007. Articles dans des ouvrages collectifs : « Peut-on être payé à ne rien faire ? », dans Paul Ariès (dir.), Viv(r)e la gratuité. Une issue au capitalisme vert, Lyon, Golias, mai 2009. « Travailler moins, trois fois moins ! », dans Jean-Pierre GELARD (dir.), Travailler plus, travailler moins, travailler autrement, Rennes, Presses Universitaires de Rennes, mars 2007. Articles et tribunes : « Imbécile valeur travail ! », dans Politis du 27 août 2009. « Le salaire du labeur. Souffrance au travail et consolation consumériste », sur Mouvements.info, mai 2009. « Revenu d'existence : ni pauvres ni soumis ? », dans Silence !, mars 2009. « Face à la crise, peut-on payer les gens à ne rien faire ? », dans Le Sarkophage, janvier 2009. « La chasse aux fraudeurs », dans Le Sarkophage, mai 2008. « Le revenu de citoyenneté peut-il être suffisant ? », sur Revue du Mauss Permanente, décembre 2007. « Le RMI est mort, vive le RMI ! », dans Le Sarkophage, octobre 2007. « Contrôle de productivité. La travail comme instrument de contrôle social », dans Silence !, juin 2007. « Travailler ni plus, ni moins, bien au contraire ! », dans L'Humanité du 14 avril 2007. « Revenu maximum autorisé ou revenu inconditionnel de citoyenneté », sur decroissance.info, février 2007. « Consommer moins pour travailler moins », dans L'Humanité du 28 décembre 2005. EXPERIENCE PROFESSIONNELLE 2009 : Chargé de cours d'économie à L'ITECH et l'ECAM de Lyon 2004 - 2008 : Créateur et animateur de la Société Coopérative d'Intérêt Collectif Alter-Conso, système de distribution de produits agricoles locaux en circuit court sur l'agglomération lyonnaise.

Local organizing committee

Local organizing committee (preliminary) Joan Martinez-Alier, François Schneider, Giorgos Kallis, Mario Giampietro. Amalia Cardenas, Beatriz Labajos, Christian Kerschner, Claudio Cattaneo, Christo Zografos, Cristina Madrid, Elisabeth Gsottbauer, Federico Demaria, Filka Sekulova, Giorgio Mosangini, Leah Temper, Mariana Walter, Marta Condé, Monica Vargas.

PostPeak Living

Prepared for the Peak for May 16, 2012

If you are having trouble reading this email, please go to our online version at http://www.postpeakliving.com/blog/prepared-peak-may-16-2012Don't Miss the Prepared for the Peak™ Newsletter add postpeakliving.com to your address book! Prepared for the Peak™ Newsletter Prepared for the Peak for May 16, 2012Share this with your friends: WHAT'S IN THIS ISSUEAre You A Carbavore? • Big Picture • Financial • Practical Preparation • Environmental News • Health ARE YOU A CARBAVORE?If you have been listening to the medical advice given for the last 40 years, chances are that you are a carbavore -- someone who eats predominantly carbohydrates. Various authorities tell us to eat 60% of our calories from carbohydrates. However, I've showed that carbohydrates are increasingly being fingered as the culprit for many diseases of civilization like obesity and diabetes. In the future, I'll describe what we know about carbohydrates, cancer and dementia...the link there is getter stronger all the time, too.Last week I discussed how there are two factors to eating glucose that we must track if we are interested in knowing the effects of carbohydrate consumption on the human body.The first factor is the immediate load to the body at the time of eating a carbohydrate food like refined flour or starches. The glycemic index database will tell you the blood sugar spike from various foods; the higher the number the quicker the body digests the carbohydrate and the larger the pulse of insulin that must be secreted to deal with the sugar.The second factor is how much carbohydrate goes through your system in total. If glucose enters the blood stream slowly, via the slower digestion of complex carbohydrates, you won't experience a spike in insulin -- but that doesn't mean that there is no insulin response. Also, the damage that carbohydrates do to the human body, via glycation (the process where glucose binds to the proteins we need), continues occurring -- just at a slower pace. The result still contributes to insulin resistance and faster aging.Over time, regardless of whether you are spiking your insulin or gently raising it via complex carbohydrates, the insulin receptors become dulled and it takes increasingly more insulin to do the same job. Eventually, the lifelong onslaught of sugar damages the insulin (and leptin) signalling until the body no longer can accurately regulate blood sugar levels. The result is runaway weight gain and diabetes.Some populations that eat a lot of rice can hold off insulin resistance because their heavy manual labor burns the glucose in the rice starch quickly. As recently as 1989, 65% of the Chinese population performed manual labor. Now, with manual labor down and Western eating habits more common, the Chinese are suffering from an obesity epidemic, too.Reintroducing Our Original Fuel System Dr. Rosedale, who travelled the world a decade ago describing to other doctors what the role of insulin in the body was, puts it this way: the long term health of the human body is directly proportional to the ratio of fat vs carbohydrates one burns. In other words, the less carbohydrates you eat and the more healthy fat you eat, the healthier you will be and the longer you will live. For an excellent discussion of why this is so, I highly recommend reading Insulin and Its Metabolic Effects (PDF), by Dr. Rosedale (who also happens to be an expert in human aging). You will know much more than many doctors after reading this.But doesn't practically everyone tell us that carbohydrates are necessary for life? Yes, they do, however those people are, unfortunately, overstating the case for carbohydrates quite a bit and are missing critical pieces of the puzzle.First, let's get something out of the way: there is no such thing as an "essential carbohydrate." There are essential fats and essential proteins but you will not find an essential carbohydrate. It's true that some carbohydrates contain vitamins and other trace nutrients but you will not find a carbohydrate food that is the only source of any of the 50 or so essential nutrients humans need.Second, the body has two fuel systems. The first fuel system is glucose and it is stored in the liver and directly in our muscles. There isn't that much there and it will be completely used up after a day of moderate activity. The likely reason we have it is in case of danger and we have to fight or turn our tail and run away from the danger.The second fuel, which everyone seems to have forgotten, is fat. Our body stores fat (around our middle first, where it is most easily accessed) so that it has a handy fuel storage depot.The problem is that we've demonized fats in the last few decades and most of us have grown up with ubiqtuous carbohydrates and thus have been lifelong sugar burners. A direct consequence of being a sugar burner is that we need to eat often during the day to keep our blood sugar up so that we don't feel depressed or lethargic. We eat carbohydrates, say a bowl of oatmeal, feel fine for a couple hours but then are ravenous before lunch because we've burned the sugar and our body needs another "hit."This is, simply put, crazy. Eating the 200g or more of carbohydrates per day most people eat is not how our bodies were designed to eat. It is making us fat by causing insulin and leptin resistance. It is aging us faster since glucose is like a sort of jet fuel for the body. It's even destroying our moods because it's not just kids that react poorly to this roller coaster of sugar.Certain parts of the body do require glucose and for that purpose the body has a mechanism for creating it when necessary, called gluconeogenisis. Like many other substances in the body, if you need it, the body will create it. Gluconeogenisis is a fundamental process to life that is common throughout the animal and plant kingdom.Eat Fat to Fuel Your BodyClearly, given what is happening to us, we do not need the amount of carbohydrate that we are currently eating. Many people make the mistake of thinking that just because the body preferentially burns carbohydrates, that means that we should be fueling ourselves primarily with carbohydrates. However, I think Dr. Rosedale's hypothesis is correct: since high levels of sugar are extremely dangerous, the body must get rid of it quickly before too much damage occurs. So, once again, most people people have it backwards: glucose (from carbohydrates) should be eaten sparingly. Let your body make what it needs. Eat plenty of fibrous, colorful vegetables but get your energy from fat. In a future newsletter I'll describe what we know about fat, protein and carbohydrate ratios in hunter-gather societes. That's important because they are the healthiest and thinnest populations on the planet before they become Westernized.You can convert from being a sugar-burner to being a fat burner by dramatically reducing your carbohydrate intake, under 50g per day does the job for almost everyone. Some poeple can do it eating less than 100g of carbohydrates per day. I converted about three months ago and feel great. After eating a breakfast of eggs, meat protein and butter in the morning (but no grains!), I often work right through lunch and have to remind myself to eat. That's because protein and fat satisfy us longer and, now that I'm a fat burner, my body has plenty of energy to use from my fat stores. Many people report that a host of health issues disappear, from skin blemishes to arthritis, when they stop eating so much sugar.Some people will tell you that burning fat is dangerous because of something called ketosis. Unfortunately, they are mistaking ketosis, which simply indicates the body is primarily burning fat for fuel, with ketoacidosis, which is when the body is using muscle protein for fuel because it doesn't have enough fat or sugar to burn.Trust me: you have enough fat on your body that your muscles will not be turned into fuel. If anyone tells you this is a dangerous diet, they don't understand the biochemistry. Once our body, after about three weeks, converts to being a fat burning machine, it will regulate the amount of fat it stores and will preserve your muscles. Even humans that are sugar burners enter ketosis every morning before breakfast when they've run out of glucose. Plus, you want to enter ketosis if you are aiming to lose weight because that indicates that you are using up your fat stores. Because the word ketosis unnecessarily frightens people (it does sound ominous, after all), Mark Sisson of Mark's Daily Apple prefers to call this state ketoadapted. Here is an excellent podcast on the topic.But if you keep eating sugar -- table sugar, sweets, ice cream, fruit juices, bread, pasta, starches like rice and potatoes -- your body will use that instead of fat and you'll remain a sugar burner. The only way you'll be able to lose weight is by restricting calories instead of simply letting your body regulate your fat level by eating properly.Consider becoming a fat burner instead of being a sugar burner. You'll lose weight without being hungry, you'll feel better and you'll slow down the aging process.But, you say, isn't fat bad for us? Isn't that why we aren't eating red meat, because of its saturated fat content? It turns out the evidence just isn't there that fat is bad for us despite years of research. I'll go through that next week. Big Picture The Descent into Stasis | The Archdruid Report, May 9, 2012Greer continues discussing the arc of civilizations. You can hear my take on it on the ASPO video on the front page of the Post Peak Living site.The Peak Oil Crisis: Perspective | Post Carbon Institute, May 9, 2012Shackles That We Will Believe In | The Automatic Earth, May 11, 2012The difficult future facing black gold | Swiss Info, May 13, 2012Major oil companies on peak oil | ASPO-USA, May 14, 2012Free Energy Does Not Occur in Nature | Contraposition, May 14, 2012 Financial The Real Unemployment Rate: 22% -- Not 8.1% | Financial Sense, May 8, 2012In Jim's view, the coming fiscal cliff is on track for 2014.High Inflation Causes Societies to Disintegrate' | Spiegel Online, May 11, 2012There Is Not Enough Money On Planet Earth | The Automatic Earth, May 11, 2012Federal Reserve Allows First Chinese Government Takeover of U.S. Bank | AllGov, May 14, 2012The Bank Runs In Greece Will Soon Be Followed By Bank Runs In Other European Nations | The Economic Collapse, May 15, 2012That Which is Unsustainable Will Go Away: Pensions | Of Two Minds, May 15, 2012 Practical Preparation Tomatoes: A Complete Planting Guide | The How Do Gardener, April 12, 2012The How Do Gardener has provided a comprehensive resource on appropriate tomato varieties for each state.DIY Vertical Garden | Bridgman, April 20, 2012Butterbur: An Overlooked Herb for Allergies, Migraines, and Asthma | The Survival Doctor, May 10, 2012The Many Uses of Bamboo | Preparedness Advice Blog, May 13, 2012Candlewicks | Preparedness Advice Blog, May 14, 2012 Environmental News Biodiversity loss is as damaging as climate change and pollution | Click Green, May 3, 2012Arctic Ocean is a Potent Methane Source Too | Mother Jones, May 9, 2012U.S. Sees Warmest Year Since Record-Keeping Began 117 Years Ago | AllGov, May 11, 2012Australian project simulates effects of runaway climate change | The Guardian, May 14, 2012Wasted milk produces as much CO2 as 20,000 cars | Grist, May 15, 2012Earth's environment getting worse, not better, says WWF ahead of Rio+20 | The Guardian, May 15, 2012 Health The Weight of the Nation | HBO Documentaries, May 14, 2012This documentary gets close but still misses the mark. They understand the role of sugar and, to some extent, refined carbohydrates, but they still demonize red meat. You can stream this online at no charge for a limited time.Why the Campaign to Stop America's Obesity Crisis Keeps Failing | The Daily Beast, May 7, 2012Another spot-on article by Gary Taubes. Going low fat was a huge mistake. We should have gone low carbohydrate instead.Is The Food We Eat Killing Us? | The Economic Collapse, May 9, 2012Is It Primal? -- 8 More Foods Scrutinized | Mark's Daily Apple, May 9, 2012Are Humans Hard-Wired to Be Optimistic? | Mark's Daily Apple, May 10, 2012Why We're Missing Out on Real Life | Mark's Daily Apple, May 15, 2012 Did you get this email from a friend? Sign up for future issues of our newsletter here.www.PostPeakLiving.com For Written Inquiries:Post Peak Living LLC743B Portola StreetSan Francisco, CA 94129Privacy Policy:Find out how importantyour privacy is important to us.Read our Privacy PolicyCopyright Information:Copyright (c) 2012 Post Peak Industries LLC. All Rights Reserved. Post Peak Living, Prepared for the Peak and the Post Peak Living logo are trademarks and service marks of Post Peak Industries LLC. All other trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.PostPeakLiving.com   

Prepared for the Peak for April 10, 2012

If you are having trouble reading this email, please go to our online version at http://www.PostPeakLiving.com/newsletter/2012-04-10Don't Miss the Prepared for the Peak™ Newsletter add postpeakliving.com to your address book! Prepared for the Peak™ Newsletter Prepared for the Peak for April 10, 2012WHAT'S IN THIS ISSUEBig Picture • Financial • Practical Preparation • Environmental News • Health BIG PICTURESprawl is on the skids as Americans gravitate to cities and jobs | USA Today, Apr. 5, 2012World food prices rise further, raising fears of unrest | Yahoo! News, Apr. 5, 2012Khosla Ventures: The US is Massively Underfunding the Innovations Critical to Its Energy Future | Chris Martenson, Apr. 6, 2012Peak oil already wreaking economic disaster | Bloomington Alternative, Apr. 7, 2012Austerity is Alive and Well in America | The Automatic Earth, Apr. 8, 2012 FINANCIALBen Bernanke's Secret Inflation Plan | Forbes, Apr. 4, 2012Interest on Federal Debt Hit $104B in First Half of FY2012--Despite Low Interest Rates | CNS News, Apr. 5, 2012Time To Panic About Europe Again | Slate, Apr. 6, 2012Public Banking in America: Philadelphia Freedom, Birthplace of the Constitution Takes Center Stage | Global Research, Apr. 8, 2012The Central Banks are Irrelevant | Automatic Earth, Apr. 9, 2012 PRACTICAL PREPARATION How to Navigate by the Sun | David Colarusso, Aug. 12, 2009How to Eat the Abundance Around You, by Linda Runyon | Survival Blog, Apr. 6, 2012Take Care of Your Feet | Preparedness Advice, Apr. 6, 2012Recipe: Easy Red Spaghetti Sauce | Survival Blog, Apr. 8, 2012Sneaky Places to Store More Stuff | Survival Blog, Apr. 8, 2012Book Review: The Doom and Bloom Survival Medicine Handbook | The Survival Mom, Apr. 8, 2012 ENVIRONMENTAL NEWSHow To Feed the World After Climate Change | Slate, Apr. 5, 2012Heat-resistant seeds, ecological agriculture: growing food after climate change.Pink on Green: How to Ignite the Second Electrical Revolution | Environmental News Network, Apr. 5, 2012Shake It Off: Earth's Wobble May Have Ended Ice Age | Environmental News Network, Apr. 5, 2012Sharp Rise in U.S. Earthquakes: 'Almost Certainly Manmade,' USGS Scientists Report | Global Research, Apr. 8, 2012XKCD has some amazing facts about oceans for you | Grist, Apr. 9, 2012 HEALTHThe Grass-fed Difference | U.S. Wellness Meats, Dec. 7, 2009White Bread Kills | Slate, Apr. 6, 2012A review of White Bread, a new book about our nation's fear of flour.Recipe: Primal Chicken Tikka Masala | Mark's Daily Apple, Apr. 7, 2012The Real Deal On Adrenal Fatigue | Robb Wolf, Apr. 9, 2012Powdered Egg Alternatives and Heating Olive Oil | Mark's Daily Apple, Apr. 9, 2012 Did you get this email from a friend? Sign up for future issues of our newsletter here.www.PostPeakLiving.com For Written Inquiries:Post Peak Living LLC743B Portola StreetSan Francisco, CA 94129Privacy Policy:Find out how importantyour privacy is important to us.Read our Privacy PolicyCopyright Information:Copyright (c) 2012 Post Peak Industries LLC. All Rights Reserved. Post Peak Living, Prepared for the Peak and the Post Peak Living logo are trademarks and service marks of Post Peak Industries LLC. All other trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.PostPeakLiving.com  

Prepared for the Peak for April 6, 2012

If you are having trouble reading this email, please go to our online version at http://www.PostPeakLiving.com/newsletter/2012-04-06Don't Miss the Prepared for the Peak™ Newsletter add postpeakliving.com to your address book! Prepared for the Peak™ Newsletter Prepared for the Peak for April 6, 2012WHAT'S IN THIS ISSUENews That Matters • Big Picture • Financial • Practical Preparation • Environmental News • Health NEWS THAT MATTERS Obama Signs Bill to Promote Start-Up Investments | NY Times, Apr. 5, 2012 BIG PICTUREA World without Oil: Companies Prepare for a Fossil-Free Future | Spiegel Online, Apr. 2, 2012Does the U.S. Really Have More Oil than Saudi Arabia? | The Oil Drum, Apr. 2, 2012Excellent. Must read.The new American household: 3 generations, 1 roof | CNN, Apr. 3, 2012Multi-generation households are on the rise.Global Oil Risks in the Early 21st Century | Zero Hedge, Apr. 3, 2012Usually the comments on ZeroHedge are quite, er, spirited. These are pretty tame, with mostly people agreeing commenting.Next Great Depression? MIT study predicting 'global economic collapse' by 2030 still on track | Yahoo! News, Apr. 4, 2012We'd say that it's likely to happen a lot sooner than that.Peak eggs: Hubbert and the Easter Bunny | Cassandra's Legacy, Apr. 5, 2012 FINANCIALFed Buying 61 Percent of US Debt | Money News, Mar. 28, 2012More Evidence of Fraud: MF Global's Inscrutable Accounting Error -- Who Shot Jon? | Jesse's Cafe Americain, Apr. 3, 201219 Signs Of Very Serious Economic Trouble On The Horizon | The Economic Collapse, Apr. 5, 2012 PRACTICAL PREPARATION Instant Survival Tip: Improvised Water Filter | The Survival Mom, Mar. 30, 20127 electric cars for the future | CNN, Apr. 2, 2012Fisker unveils its new Atlantic plug-in car | CNN, Apr. 3, 2012It's nice to dream about these vehicles...though they are too expensive for me and don't yet match the capabilities of a gasoline car.Waterproofing Flashlights | Preparedness Advice, Apr. 4, 2012A few basic facts about beans | Preparedness Advice, Apr. 5, 2012 ENVIRONMENTAL NEWSStudy: Global temperatures could rise 5 degrees by 2050 | USA Today, Mar. 25, 2012Global warming close to becoming irreversible-scientists | Reuters, Mar. 26, 2012It's already irreversible within a few millenia...now the question is how high the temperature will go.A Tour of the New Geopolitics of Global Warming | Scientific American, Apr. 2, 2012March Weather 2012: Month Was Warmest On Record Across Half Of U.S., Expert Says | Huffington Post, Apr. 2, 2012What the Guys Who Want to be President Want to Do on the Environment | The Atlantic Wire, Apr. 2, 2012Study Suggests Rising CO2 in the Past Caused Global Warming | Climate Desk, Apr. 4, 2012 HEALTHAmericans may be more obese than they think, researchers say | Los Angeles Times, Apr. 2, 2012Why Fast? Part Four -- Brain Health | Mark's Daily Apple, Apr. 3, 2012Paleo Diet: How Do I Convince Someone To Try It? | Robb Wolf, Apr. 4, 2012Baskets Of Health: The Easter Bunny Goes Paleo | Robb Wolf, Apr. 5, 2012The Hidden Story of Big Sugar | Macrobiotics Guide Did you get this email from a friend? Sign up for future issues of our newsletter here.www.PostPeakLiving.com For Written Inquiries:Post Peak Living LLC743B Portola StreetSan Francisco, CA 94129Privacy Policy:Find out how importantyour privacy is important to us.Read our Privacy PolicyCopyright Information:Copyright (c) 2012 Post Peak Industries LLC. All Rights Reserved. Post Peak Living, Prepared for the Peak and the Post Peak Living logo are trademarks and service marks of Post Peak Industries LLC. All other trademarks and registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.PostPeakLiving.com  

Post-Oil Cities

The Archdruid Report

The Twilight of Protest

Over the last four months or so, as this blog has sketched out the trajectory of empires in general, and then traced the intricate history of America's empire in particular, I've been avoiding a specific issue.  That avoidance hasn't come from any lack of awareness on my part, and if it had been, comments and emails from readers asking when I was going to get around to discussing the issue would have taken care of that in short order.  No, it's simply a natural reluctance to bring up a subject that has to be discussed sooner or later, but is guaranteed to generate far more heat than light. The subject?  The role of protest movements in the decline and fall of the American empire. That's an issue sufficiently burdened with tangled emotions and unstated agendas that even finding a good starting place for the discussion is a challenge. Fortunately I have some assistance, courtesy of Owen Lloyd, who is involved with an organization called Deep Green Resistance and recently wrote a  reviewof my book The Blood of the Earth. It's by no means a bad review. Quite the contrary, Lloyd made a serious effort to grapple with the issues that book tried to raise, and by and large succeeded; where he failed, the misunderstandings were all but inevitable, given the differences between his views and mine.  Thus it's all the more striking that his review points up so precisely the reasons why protest movements have by and large been spinning their wheels in empty air for thirty years, and will almost certainly continue to do so while America's empire crashes and burns around them.The point that matters here is the review's denunciation of one of the central points of the book, which is that those who want to change the world need to start by changing their own lives.  According to Lloyd, we don't have time for that, since the biosphere is in dire peril; what's needed instead are the standard tools of contemporary activism--"direct action, community building, and outreach," in his convenient summary. His reasoning is logical enough, as far as it goes; if your house is on fire, after all, it's a little late to install sprinklers and smoke alarms.  If the situation is as urgent as Lloyd claims, all other considerations have to take a back seat to an all-out effort to deal with the immediate crisis with the most effective means available. It's a common enough claim in the contemporary activist community; Derrick Jensen had an article in Orion Magazine a few years back making essentially the same argument.  Still, there's a problem with that argument, because the responses Lloyd, Jensen, and other activists are promoting here have been standard across the spectrum of activist groups for more than three decades now, and that's more than enough time to see how well they work. The answer?  Well, let's be charitable and say "not very well." For years now, leading environmentalists have been bemoaning how much ground is being lost year after year, and how little the environmental movement has been able to do even to slow that down.  They are quite correct in that assessment, of course.  It's standard these days to insist that this simply shows the power differential between the corporate interests that profit from environmental destruction and the citizen groups that are trying to fight them.  That argument seems convincing, too, so long as you do what most people these days are taught to do, and ignore the lessons of history. Glance back to a slightly earlier period and at least one of those lessons stands out in bold relief. In the 1970s, environmental activists facing equally powerful and well-funded corporate interests built a mass movement and forced through landmark legislation.  In the United States, the Clean Air Act, the Endangered Species Act, and a bevy of less famous but equally important environmental bills crashed through a wall of corporate opposition and became the law of the land. That sort of success is something that today's environmental activists can only daydream about, and it was accomplished using the same tools that activists use today--with one important addition: the environmental activists of that time recognized that the most effective way to advocate any given change was to make that change in their own lives first. That awareness was not limited to the environmental movement; it was pioneered by the feminists of the 1960s and 1970s, in fact, who turned it into a core principle of their movement--"the personal is political"--and leveraged it efficiently to bring about dramatic if still incomplete gains in women's rights. They recognized, as did many other activists in those years, that if your lifestyle supports a system, and depends on that system, any efforts you may think you're making to force significant change on that system will be wasted breath. It will be wasted breath because most people, reasonably enough, want to see that there's a life worth living on the other side of the changes your activist movement wants to make, and the best way to give them a glimpse of that life is to enact it yourself. It will also be wasted breath because most people have a tolerably good nose for hypocrisy, and are highly familiar with the kind of demagogy that calls on everybody else to make sacrifices and get by with less so the demagogue doesn't have to do so. Talk to Americans who didn't support either the climate change movement or its corporate opposition, and you'll find that for a good many of them, it was when word of Al Gore's air-conditioned mansion and frequent-flyer miles got around that they decided that global warming was yet another manufactured threat, meant to stampede people into acquiescing with somebody's political agenda. Finally, it will be wasted breath because if the system you think you want to change is also the system that supplies you with a comfortable middle class lifestyle, with all the comforts and conveniences that such a lifestyle supplies, the changes you will push the system to make will pretty reliably be limited to  those that will not affect your continued access to the lifestyle, comforts and conveniences in question. The Breton peak oil blogger Damien Perrotin has commented amusingly on the influence of what, in France, are called bobos--that is, bourgeois bohemians (the acronym works equally well in both languages), members of the liberal upper middle classes. Bobos are terribly eager to see themselves as the saviors of the world--that's the bohemian side--and will do absolutely anything to fulfill this role, so long as it doesn't require them to give up any of the benefits of their privileged status--that's the bourgeois side. I hope the term catches on in this country, because we have a lot of bobos over here, too. Last week's discussion of captive constituencies has a special relevance in any discussion of the species Bobo americanus, because being active in the captive constituency of some otherwise mainstream political faction is a very popular way to play the role of saving the world without risking disruption to the system that gives bobos their privileged status. There are also substantial personal rewards available for those who take leadership positions in captive constituencies, and help keep them captive. It's a role bobos are well qualified to fill, especially those who come from the upper end of the class hierarchy and so have the connections and skills for the job.  That's where you get the executives of mainstream environmental groups who draw six-figure salaries, maintain cordial relationships with corporate sponsors, and show an obvious willingness to settle for whatever scraps may fall from the tables of wealth and power onto their corner of America's unwashed kitchen floor. Still, the bobo-ization of American radicalism is not limited to such obvious cases.  When you hear activists loudly insisting that it's possible to save the world without being an ascetic--and I'm sorry to say that, yes, that well-worn trope turned up in the Owen Lloyd book review cited above--you're hearing the echoes of bobo influence, in the form of the popular but profoundly wrong notion that it must somehow be possible to maintain today's unsustainable lifestyles on a sustainable basis.  That's not going to happen, for reasons that reach right down into the laws of thermodynamics; no amount of handwaving is going to make it happen; and the sooner we get used to living with a lot less, the less damage we will do to ourselves, each other, and the Earth as the industrial economy sputters to a halt. Now of course that suggestion is anathema to the existing order of things, in America and elsewhere. It's usually anathema in a declining imperial society. James Francis' useful study Subversive Virtue: Asceticism and Authority in the Second-Century Pagan World chronicles how the imperial Roman government came to treat the asceticism of Stoic and Neoplatonic philosophers as an unendurable threat to its authority. They were quite correct to do so; a system that maintains itself in power by bribing the lower classes with panem et circenses and the middle and upper classes with the more lavish entertainments chronicled in Petronius' Satyricon has no convenient lever with which to control those who have no interest in these things.Thus it's probably safe to assume that there will be no effective opposition to the status quo in this country until some movement arises that in practice--not just in theory--embraces an essentially ascetic approach.  My guess, for what it's worth, is that the first movement to do so will be a revived Marxism. I'm no fan of Karl Marx, and even less a fan of the various ideologues who filled out the framework of his system, but Marxism has features that will give it powerful appeal in the decades ahead.  It gives the poor someone to blame for their misfortunes, and does so in a far more detailed manner than (say) the vague rhetoric of the Occupy movement; it is among the few ideologies that manage to fuse a rigorous intellectual tradition with a utopian future vision of religious intensity; and it has a strong ascetic element--the figure of the Marxist revolutionary, lean, passionate, doctrinaire, and contemptuous of material goods except insofar as they might help further the cause, was a common social type in Europe for close to a century. Marxism also has an advantage just now that no amount of money could buy it: the extraordinary campaign of unintended propaganda that the Republican party is currently carrying out on its behalf.  Right now, even the most moderate and revenue-neutral attempts to use the powers of government for the benefit of American citizens are being lambasted by the GOP as communism.  It's an embarrassing admission of intellectual poverty--one gathers that the American right spent so long belaboring the Red Peril that it really has no idea what to say now that communism isn't around any more--but it also guarantees a familiar kind of backlash. Fundamentalist churches that spend too much time denouncing Satanism, complete with lurid descriptions of Satanic living replete with wild parties and orgiastic sex, get that kind of backlash; that's why they so often find that they've merely succeeded in making devil worship popular among local teens. In the same way, if the Republicans succeed in rebranding, say, public assistance and food safety laws as Marxist, the most likely result of that campaign will be to convince a great many Americans of otherwise moderate political views that Marx might have had something going for him after all. As suggested above, I don't consider this a good thing; in theory, Marxist revolution leads to the glorious worker's paradise of the future via the inevitable workings of the historical dialectic, but in practice the dictatorship of the proletariat reliably turns into just another dictatorship, with the usual quota of gulags and unmarked mass graves.  Still, in a country where most people are frighteningly ignorant of history, and are being driven to the wall by a corrupt and spectacularly mismanaged imperial economy in headlong decline, it's unpleasantly unlikely that this point will be remembered. Still, other forces are pushing American society toward a crisis that its existing political and economic arrangements are unlikely to survive, and the rehabilitation of Marxism is unlikely to proceed fast enough to reach any sort of critical mass before that crisis hits in earnest.  It's probably a safe bet that the more mainstream groups will increasingly side with the established order of things--I've long suspected that before all this is over with, the Sierra Club will come out in favor of strip mining the national park system so long as it's done in, ahem, an environmentally sensitive way. Outside the bobosphere, things are much less clear, for the twilight years of a disintegrating political system tolerably often create a fiercely Darwinian environment for ideologies and political movements, in which the only thing that matters is which set of beliefs and personalities can build the strongest coalition at the right time, absorb or marginalize the largest fraction of opposing groups, and make the most successful bid for power.  As that bubbling cauldron of competing belief systems boils over in violence and systemic disruption, it's anyone's guess who or what will come out on top. Whoever ends up more or less in charge of what's left of the United States of America when the flames die down and the rubble stops bouncing, though, will have to face a predicament far more difficult than the ones encountered by the winners in 1932, or 1860, or for that matter 1776. All three of these past crises happened when the United States was still a rising power, with vast and largely untapped natural resources, and social and economic systems not yet burdened with the aftermath of a failed empire; the winning side could safely assume that once the immediate crisis was resolved, the nation would return to relative prosperity, pay off its debts, and proceed from there. That won't be happening this time around. When the crisis is over, whatever form it takes, the United States--or whatever assortment of successor nations end up dividing its territory between them--will be a shattered, bankrupt, resource-poor Third World failed state (or collection of failed states) that will likely have to struggle hard even to regain basic levels of political and economic stability. That struggle will be pursued in a world in which energy and other resources are getting scarcer each year, energy- and resource-intensive technologies are being abandoned by all but a very few rich and powerful nations, and unpredictable swings in temperature, rainfall, and other climatic and ecological factors make life a good deal more difficult for everyone.  In that not-so-far-future America, the comforts and conveniences most of us now take for granted will be available only to the rich and powerful, if they can be had by anyone at all. That's the world our choices over the last three decades or so have been preparing for us, and for our grandchildren's grandchildren. In such a world, the people who will have the most to offer their communities, their societies, and the biosphere that supports all our lives will be those who have the courage, now, to walk away from the consumer economy and its smorgasbord of dubious pleasures, and learn, now, how to get by with less, use their own capacities of body and mind, and work with the patterns and processes of nature.  For the time being--specifically, until we get close enough to the crisis period that even the most nonviolent challenge to the existing order calls down massive violence in response--protest can still accomplish goals worth pursuing, especially if activists wake up once again to the power of personal example; over the longer run, though, it's the change on the individual, family, and community level that so many of today's activists reject as pointless that have the most to offer the world. ****************End of the World of the Week #22Comets are fascinating things, and they have an ancient reputation as omens of trouble. Still, you might expect the industrial world in 1973 to have responded with a little less frenzy to the appearance of the much-ballyhooed Comet Kohoutek. It was discovered by Czech astronomer Luboš Kohoutek on March 7 of that year, while it was still a very long way from the sun, and back-of-the-envelope calculations suggested that it might put on a spectacular show.  The mass media proceeded to lose the word "might" and fill headlines with claims that Kohoutek would be "the comet of the century." That was all it took to catch the attention of the apocalyptically minded. David Berg aka Moses David, leader of the Children of God sect, did the most to publicize a Kohoutek apocalypse; his proclamation  that the comet would destroy the world in January of 1974, printed on bright orange flyers, was handed out by his followers to people all over North America. (I think I may still have one in a file box in the basement.) All through the last months of 1973, the comet had something of the same cachet that the supposed end of the Mayan calendar has today. As it turned out, though, the prophets were wrong, and so was the media. Far from being "the comet of the century," Comet Kohoutek turned out to be a very modest spectacle indeed, barely visible in the night sky above my backyard--I think we were too close to the streetlights or something. Fans of apocalyptic prophecies quickly found some new prediction of doom to discuss, and the phrase "Comet Kohoutek" had a brief moment of fame as a synonym for "dud." --for more failed end time prophecies, see my book Apocalypse Not

The Descent into Stasis

Last weeks' post attempted, with the help of the ancient Greek philosopher Polybius, to trace out the trajectory that democracies--and in particular the United States--tend to follow across time. The pattern that Polybius outlined, and that American politics has cycled through three times so far in the course of its history, begins with most of the nation's political power concentrated in a single person, and follows the diffusion of power to the point that the entire political system settles into a gridlock only a massive crisis can break.  Just now, according to that model, we are in the stage of gridlock, and thus of maximum diffusion of power. Now of course this interpretation flies in the face of the standard narrative that surrounds power in America today. Both sides of the political spectrum these days like to insist that too much power is in the hands of the other side, at least when the other side is in the White House or has a majority in Congress. The further from the mainstream you go, the more strident the voices you'll hear insisting that some small group or other has seized absolute power over the US political system and is running things for their own advantage. The identity of the small group in question varies wildly--it's hard to think of anyone who hasn't been accused, at some point in the last half century or so, of being the secret elite that runs everything--but the theory that some small group or other has all the power that everybody else seems to lack is accepted nearly everywhere. Whether it's Occupy Wall Street talking about the nefarious 1%, or the Tea Party talking about the equally nefarious liberal elite, the conviction that power has been concentrated in the wrong hands is ubiquitous in today's America. It's an appealing notion, especially if you want to find somebody to blame for the current state of affairs in this country, and of course hunting for scapegoats is a popular sport whenever times are hard. Still, I'd like to suggest that an alternative understanding explains much more about the current state of the American political system. The alternative I have in mind is that the political system is lurching forward like a driverless car along a trajectory set by the outdated policies of an earlier time, and that just now, nobody is in charge at all. Unpopular though this way of thinking about power in America is, I suggest that it makes more sense of our predicament than the more popular notion of elite control.It's important to understand what my proposal means and, more importantly, what it doesn't mean. A great many of those who insist that power in America is in the hands of a small elite offer, as evidence for the claim, the fact that a relatively small number of people get an obscenely large share of national income and wealth, and they're quite correct. The last three decades or so have seen America turn into something close to a Third World kleptocracy, the sort of failed state in which a handful of politically well-connected people plunder the economy for their own benefit. When bank executives vote themselves and their cronies million-dollar bonuses out of government funds while their banks are losing billions of dollars a year, just to name an obvious example, it's impossible to discuss the situation honestly without using words like "looting." Still, the ability to plunder one corner of a complex system is not the same thing as the ability to control the whole system, and the freedom with which so many people pillage the institutions they're supposed to be managing could as well be understood as a sign that there's no center of power willing or able to defend the core interests of the US empire against death by financial hemorrhage.  The only power the executives of, say, Goldman Sachs need is the power to block any effort to stop them from stripping their bank to the bare walls for their personal enrichment, or to cut them off from the access to tax dollars that's made that process so lucrative.  That much power they certainly have--but it's a kind and a degree of power shared by many other influential groups in America just now. Consider the defense industries that are busy profiting off the F-35 fighter, an impressively corrupt corporate welfare program currently chewing gargantuan holes in the defense budgets of the US and several other nations.  Years behind schedule and trillions of dollars over budget, the F-35 is by all independent accounts a dog of a plane, clumsier and more vulnerable than the decades-old fighters it is supposed to replace. The consortium of interests that profit from its manufacture have the power to keep the process chugging along, even as the delays stretch to decades and the cost overruns head toward lunar orbit, and again, that's all the power they need. It's all the more telling that they're able to do so when the F-35 project is directly opposed to crucial US interests: having the US and its allies equipped with a substandard fighter, at a time when China and Russia are both busily testing much better planes, risks humiliating defeat in future wars--and yet the program moves steadily forward. Examples of the same sort of thing can be multiplied endlessly, and they aren't limited to corporations. Cities and counties all over the United States, for example, are being driven into bankruptcy by the cost of public-sector salaries and benefits that politically influential unions have extracted from vulnerable or compliant local politicians. Equally, other countries--China and Israel come to mind--have learned to make use of the diffusion of American power for their own interests.  It doesn't matter how blatantly the Chinese manipulate their currency or thumb their noses at intellectual property rights, for instance; so long as they keep their lobby in Washington well funded and well staffed, they're secure from any meaningful response on the part of the US government. I've come to suspect that the only reason the US government is down on Iran is that religious scruples keep the Iranian government from buying immunity the way the Chinese do; they've got the petroleum and therefore the money, and could doubtless have their own influential lobby capable of blocking hostile legislation in Congress, if only they didn't let their ideals get in the way.  The power exerted by each of these groups is by and large a veto power.  They may not be able to get new policies through the jungle of competing interests in Washington, a task that is increasingly hard for anyone to manage at all, but they can prevent policies that are not in their interest from being enacted, and they can defend any policy already in place that benefits them or furthers their ability to loot the system. They have that veto power, in turn, because no one in contemporary America has the power to get anything done without assembling a temporary coalition of competing power centers, each of which has its own agenda and each of which constantly has its hand out for the biggest possible share of the take. Not every potential power center in American politics functions as a veto group, mind you. A great many groups have become captive constituencies of one of the existing power centers, and thus lost whatever independent influence they might have had. Compare the way that the Democratic Party has seized control of the environmental movement to the way that the Republicans have played the same trick on gun owners.  In both cases, the party can ignore the interests of its captive constituency until elections come around, and then bombard the constituency with propaganda insisting that the other party will do horrible things to the environment or the Second Amendment if they win the election. The other party duly plays its part in this good cop-bad cop routine by making threatening noises about gun rights or environmental issues at intervals. It's an efficient scam, and it keeps environmentalists voting for Democrats and gun owners voting for Republicans even though neither party gives more than lip service to the issues that matter to either group. To the members of the captive constituencies, in turn, all this simply feeds the belief that there must be somebody in the system who has the power they lack; after all, they keep on voting for the right people,  and yet none of their policies ever get enacted! Since very few gun owners ever sit down and share a couple of beers with environmentalists, there's rarely an opportunity for them to compare notes and notice that neither side is getting what it wants, and the same gimmick is being used on both. The one place on the political continuum where this sort of comparison does take place is out on the fringes, where the extreme left increasingly bends around to touch the extreme right, and the paranoiac beliefs endemic to the farther shores of American politics turn the whole thing into yet another proof that the Freemasons or the Jews or David Ickes' imaginary space lizards run everything after all. Just as the ability to plunder one part of a system does not equal control over the whole system, though, the ability to manipulate a handful of politically naive pressure groups does not equal the ability to manipulate the whole system. It's precisely because no one group has an effective monopoly on power that political parties and other power centers have to resort to complicated and expensive gimmickry to hammer together the temporary coalitions that enable them to cling to whatever power they have and, on increasingly rare occasions, force through some policy or other that favors their interests. As the system settles ever more deeply into gridlock, in turn, policies put in place in previous decades become increasingly resistant to change. Even those that turned out to have severe flaws will inevitably get support from those who profit from them, and from employees of government bureaucracies whose jobs would go away in the event of a policy change.  Machiavelli pointed out a long time ago that reforms always face an uphill struggle, since those who benefit from the status quo can be counted on to fight fiercely to hold on to what they've got, while those who might benefit from reform have less incentive to fight for gains they know perfectly well they may never see; factor in the mutual support among power centers who have a mutual interest in keeping the status quo fixed in place, and you have a recipe for exactly the sort of stasis the United States sees every seventy or eighty years, as the cycle discussed in last week's post approaches its end. How the endgame plays out is a matter of more than academic interest.  In 1860 and 1932, a political system frozen in gridlock and incapable of anything like a constructive response to crisis finally hit a crisis that could not be evaded any longer, and the system shattered. In the chaos that resulted, a long-shot candidate with a radical following was able to pull together enough support from the remaining power centers and the people in general to win the White House and force through changes that redefined the political landscape for decades to come. That's a possibility this time around, too, but a possibility is not a certainty, and nowhere is it written in stone that a crisis of the sort we're discussing has to have a happy ending. The range and scale of the crises facing the United States as it finishes the third lap around the track of anacyclosis, to begin with, pose a far more substantial challenge than the ones that punctuated the cycle in those earlier years.  In 1860, as we've seen, the question was which of two incompatible human ecologies would dominate the North American continent; in 1932, it was the simpler though still challenging matter of how to pry the dead fingers of a failed economic ideology off the throat of the nation.  This time, the United States faces two immense and parallel difficulties, neither one of which has the sort of straightforward solution that Lincoln and Roosevelt respectively had to hand. The first difficulty, as I've discussed at length in these posts, is that the global empire established by the United States in the wake of the Second World War is coming apart. The American way of empire -- the custom of leaving the administration of subject countries to puppet governments drawn from local elites -- was cheaper than the traditional approach of subjugation and rule by an imperial viceroy, but it turned out to be more vulnerable to change and less directly profitable to the imperial government:  American corporations profited mightily from the wealth pump directed at Latin America, for example, but very little of that money ended up in the coffers of the US treasury, where it could help cover the costs of empire. As the American empire falters, in turn, rival powers expand their own military capacities and apply pressure wherever they can get away with it, short of being drawn into a premature war; the US military reacts with the same sort of stereotyped response that characterized the latter years of the British empire, preparing to fight bygone wars with ever more ornate and overpriced technology, while its most likely opponents show every sign of asking the hard questions about basics that lead to sudden revolutions in military practice. When this has happened in the past, the results have almost never been good for the established imperial power, and there's no reason to think that things will be noticeably different this time around. Meanwhile America's "empire of time," its once-immense energy resource base, has been drawn down at breakneck rates for more than a century and a half. Recent handwaving around shale gas reserves has served mostly to pump up the price of drilling company stocks, and enabled a certain number of rich men in influential positions to get away with another round of looting; we've all heard the strident claims that the United States will become an energy exporter sometime very soon, but the numbers don't even begin to add up, and it's a safe bet that a few years down the road shale gas will have gone the way of ethanol and all the other energy sources that were allegedly going to replace petroleum and keep the industrial age running smoothly ahead.  The American economy is utterly dependent on very large quantities of petroleum; so is the American military; drastic changes, going far beyond the baby steps involved in manufacturing a few electric cars or running a naval vessel or two on biodiesel, would have to get started well in advance to cushion the end of either dependency, and those changes are not taking place. The consequences of the end of these two empires can't be dealt with on the battlefield, as the long debate over the shape of America's human ecology was, and it can't be dealt with by jerry-rigging a set of temporary expedients to overcome the mismatch between real wealth and a dysfunctional financial system, as the crisis of the Great Depression was.  It will require massive changes in every aspect of American life, starting with a steep decline in standards of living and the forced abandonment of privileges most Americans think of as theirs by right. That would be an immense crisis at the best of times, and these are not the best of times; our political system has spent the last thirty years trying to evade exactly these issues, while sinking further and further into stasis, and it's our luck that the crisis seems to be arriving just as American politics freeze up completely. That might result in the kind of systemic shock that brings another long-shot candidate with a radical following into the White House, and catalyzes immense natonal changes. It might also result in the more extreme form of systemic shock that shatters a nation into fragments. In the weeks to come we'll be discussing both those possibilities, and others. ****************End of the World of the Week #21It's necessary to turn to history books to get the details on most of the apocalyptic prophecies discussed here and in Apocalypse Not, but there's at least one important exception -- and no, I'm not talking about Harold Camping. Nearly all of my readers will remember those giddy months toward the end of 1999 when a great many people expected industrial civilization to grind to a halt because an older generation of computer software used two digits, rather than four, to keep track of the year, and risked freezing up when "99" turned to "00" amd a variety of internal functions geared to incremental changes in date went haywire.  That was the Y2K crisis--or, more precisely, noncrisis--and it has a lesson that not everyone who lived through the nonarrival of that noncrisis may have grasped. I had a certain advantage in grasping it, as I lived in the high-tech hotbed of Seattle and knew a lot of people in the computer industry. Some of them knew as much about the Y2K problem as anybody alive, but you'd just about have to schedule an appointment with them to hear what they had to say about it, because they were working as much overtime as they wanted, and raking in money at a dizzying pace. Those who still remembered enough from their college classes in COBOL and other obsolete computer languages were rewriting code for banks, bureaucracies, and big corporations; those who didn't were generally installing brand new Y2K-compliant PC systems and networks for smaller firms that had decided to scrap their existing hardware altogether. Quite a lot of people spent those last months of 1999 cowering in fear or gloating over the imminent demise of everybody else.  For computer geeks, though, the Y2K noncrisis was an extraordinarily profitable time, and every round of dire warnings in the media was followed by panicked phone calls to computer firms from more businesses eager to save their companies from the "Millennium bug."  I can't say for sure that those dire warnings were part of a deliberate marketing strategy, but they certainly functioned that way, and they drove the single largest boom the US computer industry had ever seen. Mind you, I used an old and noncompliant PC for writing, and didn't have anything like the money I would have needed to buy an up-to-date machine. Instead, a few weeks before the new year, I went into the software and reset the internal calendar to the equivalent date in December 1949, and then went through the rollover to January 1, 1950 without any trouble at all. --for more failed end time prophecies, see my book Apocalypse Not

Democracy's Arc

The troubling news about methane releases from the Arctic ocean that was the focus of last week's post on The Archdruid Report belongs, as I mentioned then, to the wider trajectory of industrial society's decline and fall, not to the more specific theme I've been developing here in recent months. The end of America's global empire takes place against the background of that wider trajectory, to be sure, and core elements of the predicament of industrial civilization bid fair to play a crucial role as the United States backs itself into a corner defined by its own history. Still, important as the limits to growth are just now, there's much more at work in the endgame of American empire. Thus this week's post will plunge without further ado from the austere heights of atmospheric chemistry to the steaming, swampy, snake-infested realities of American politics. It's a jarring shift in more ways than one, since everybody basically agrees on what methane is, what the atmosphere is, and so on; the terms that frame debates about the greenhouse effect and anthropogenic global warming are clearly defined and bear some relationship to observable fact. We don't have that advantage in  politics. In particular, the possibility of an intelligent conversation about American politics is hamstrung by the spectacular distortions imposed on basic terms by nearly everybody involved. The worst example, and the one I propose to explore this week, is democracy. It's hard to think of a word that's bandied about more freely, but I keep on waiting for Inigo Montoya from The Princess Bride to stand up and say his classic line: "You keep on using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means." On both ends of American politics, for example, democracy is for all practical purposes defined as a political system in which a majority of voters will support whatever group happens to be using the word at that moment. That definition can be seen at work most clearly in the shrill insistence, common these days over much of the political spectrum, that the United States isn't a democracy; after all, the argument runs, if the United States was a democracy, the people would vote in favor of their own best interests, which of course just happen to be identical with the platform of whoever's talking. The fact that this claim can be heard from groups whose ideas of the people's best interests differ in every conceivable way--for example, the Tea Party and Occupy Wall Street--simply adds to the irony. Behind the rhetoric is a conception of democracy that has nothing in common with the real world, and everything in common with the Utopian fantasies that have come to infest contemporary political discourse. When Americans talk about democracy or, with even richer irony, "real democracy," they usually mean a system that does not exist, has never existed, and can never exist--a system less real than Neverland, in which the free choices of millions of individual voters somehow always add up to an optimal response to the challenges of a complex age, without ever running afoul of the troubles that inevitably beset democratic systems in the real world. Here's an example.  Nearly all those who insist that the United States is not a democracy cite, as evidence for that claim, the fact that our elections are usually corrupt and sometimes fraudulent. Now of course this is quite true; the winner in an American election is generally, though not always, the candidate that has the most money to spend; the broader influence of wealth over America's media and political parties is pervasive; and election fraud is as much a part of American culture as baseball and apple pie--the Democrats who waxed indignant about the rigged election returns from Florida in 2000, for example, by and large seem to have gone out of their way to forget about the voting machines at the bottom of Lake Michigan that put John F. Kennedy in the White House in 1960. Does this prove that the United States isn't a "real democracy"? Not at all. This is how democracies actually function in the real world. Under a system of representative democracy, the people who have wealth and the people who have power are by no means always the same; some of those who have wealth want power, some of those who have power want wealth, and the law of supply and demand takes it from there. That extends all the way down to the individual voter, by the way. Give citizens the right to dispose of their votes freely, and a significant number of them will use that freedom to put their votes up for sale--directly, as in old-fashioned machine politics, or indirectly, by voting for candidates who provide them with goodies at the public expense. There's no way to prevent that without depriving citizens of the right to vote as they choose, and you can't eliminate that and still have a democracy.  By this point I suspect some of my readers may be wondering if I'm opposed to democracy. Quite the contrary, I'm very much in favor of it; despite its problems, it beats the stuffing out of most systems of government. It has three benefits in particular that you don't usually get in other forms of government. First, democracies tolerate much broader freedom of speech and conscience than countries ruled by other systems. I can critique the personalities, policies, and (as here) fundamental concepts of American government without having to worry that this will bring jackbooted thugs crashing through my door at three in the morning; in nondemocratic countries, critics of the government in power rarely have that security. Equally, I can practice the religion I choose, read the books I prefer, carry on conversations with people in other democratic countries around the world, and exercise a great many other freedoms that people in nondemocratic countries simply don't have. These things matter; people have fought and died for them, and a system that makes room for them is far and away preferable to one that doesn't. Second, democracies don't kill anything like as many of their own citizens as most other forms of government do.  The history of the twentieth century, if nothing else, should have been enough of a reminder that authoritarian governments come with a very high domestic body count. All governments everywhere kill plenty of people whenever they go to war, and all governments everywhere go to war when they think they can get away with it; imperial democracies also tend to build up very large prison populations--the United States  has more people in prison than any other nation on Earth, just as Britain in its age of empire shipped so many convicts to Australia that they played a sizable role in the settling of that continent.  Still, all other things being equal, it's better to live in a nation where the government doesn't dump large numbers of its own citizens into mass graves, and democracies do that far less often, and to far fewer people, than nondemocratic governments generally do. Finally, democracies undergo systemic change with less disruption and violence than nondemocratic countries do. Whether we're talking about removing a failed head of state, coping with an economic depression, dealing with military defeat, or winning or losing an empire, democracies routinely manage to surf the wave of change without the sort of collapse such changes very often bring to nondemocratic countries. The rotation of leadership hardwired into the constitutions of most successful democracies builds a certain amount of change into the system, if only because different politicians have different pet agendas, and pressure from outside the political class--if it's strong, sustained, and intelligently directed--very often does have an impact: not quickly, not easily, and not without a great deal of bellowing and handwaving, but the thing does happen eventually. All three of these benefits, and a number of others of the same kind, can be summed up in a single sentence: democracy is resilient. Authoritarian societies, by contrast, are brittle; that's why they can't tolerate freedom of speech and conscience, why they so often murder their citizens in large numbers, and why they tend to shatter when they are driven to change by the pressure of events. Democratic societies can also be brittle, especially if they're newly established, or if a substantial fraction of their citizens rejects the values of democracy; still, all other things being equal, a democratic society normally weathers systemic change with less trauma than an authoritarian one. One measure of this greater resilience, ironically enough, may be seen in the lack of success radical groups generally have when they try to delegitimize and overturn an established democratic society.  Rhetoric that would bring a brutal response from authoritarian governments get little more than a yawn from democratic ones. A few years back, the phrase "repressive tolerance" was the term for this on the American far left. I doubt those who denounced it under this label would have preferred to be dragged from their beds in the middle of the night, shot through the head, and tumbled into an unmarked grave; the rest of us, certainly, have good reason to be thankful that that's not the way America generally deals with its dissidents. That aside, there's equally good reason to want a system in place just now that can handle systemic change with the smallest possible amount of trauma and violence, because we're headed for a great deal of systemic change in the years and decades ahead. Part of that is due to the wider trajectory of industrial society I referenced toward the beginning of this essay, part of it is due to the ongoing decline of America's global empire, but a good deal of it comes from a different sourceThe Greeks, who had a penchant for giving names to things, had a convenient label for that source: anacyclosis. That was the moniker coined by the Greek historian Polybius, who chronicled the conquest of Greece by the Romans in the second century BCE. He noted that the squabbling city-states of the Greek world tended to cycle through a distinctive sequence of governments--monarchy, followed by aristocracy, followed by democracy, and then back around again to monarchy.  It's a cogent model, especially if you replace "monarchy" with "dictatorship" and "aristocracy" with "junta" to bring the terminology up to current standards. A short and modernized form of the explanation--those of my readers who are interested in the original form should consult the Histories of Polybius--is that in every dictatorship, an inner circle of officials and generals emerges.  This inner circle eventually takes advantage of weakness at the top to depose the dictator or, more often, simply waits until he dies and then distributes power so that no one figure has total control; thus a junta is formed. In every country run by a junta, in turn, a wider circle of officials, officers, and influential people emerges; this wider circle eventually takes advantage of weakness at the top to depose the junta, and when this happens, in ancient Greece and the modern world alike, the standard gambit is to install a democratic constitution to win popular support and outflank remaining allies of the deposed junta. In every democracy, finally, competing circles of officials, officers, and influential people emerge; these expand their power until the democratic system freezes into gridlock under the pressure of factionalism or unsolved crisis; the democratic system loses its legitimacy, political collapse follows, and finally the head of the strongest faction seizes power and imposes a dictatorship, and the cycle begins all over again. It can be educational to measure this sequence against recent history and see how well it fits. Russia, for example, has been through a classic round of anacyclosis since the 1917 revolution: dictatorship under Lenin and Stalin, a junta from Khrushchev through Gorbachev, and a democracy--a real democracy, please remember, complete with corruption, rigged elections, and the other features of real democracy--since that time. China, similarly, had a period of democracy from 1911 to 1949, a dictatorship under Mao, and a junta since then, with movements toward democracy evident over the last few decades. Still, the example I have in mind is the United States of America, which has been around the cycle three times since its founding; the one difference, and it's crucial, is that all three stages have taken place repeatedly under the same constitution. A case could be made that this is the great achievement of modern representative democracy--the development of a system so resilient that it can weather anacyclosis without cracking. The three rounds of anacyclosis we've had in the United States so far have each followed the classic pattern; they've begun under the dominance of a single leader whose overwhelming support from the political class and the population as a whole allowed him to shatter the factional stalemate of the previous phase and impose a radically new order on the nation. After his death, power passes to what amounts to an elected junta, and gradually defuses outwards in the usual way, until a popular movement to expand civil rights and political participation overturns the authority of the junta. Out of the expansion of political participation, factions rise to power, and eventually bring the mechanism of government to a standstill; crisis follows, and is resolved by the election of another almost-dictator. Glance back over American history and it's hard to miss the pattern, repeating over a period that runs roughly seventy to eighty years.  The dictator-figures were George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and Franklin Roosevelt, each of whom overturned existing structures in order to consolidate their power, and did so with scant regard for existing law. The juntas were the old Whigs, the Republicans, and the New Deal Democrats, each of them representatives of a single social class; they were overthrown in turn by Jacksonian populism, the Progressive movement, and the complex social convulsions of the Sixties, each of which diffused power across a broader section of the citizenry. The first cycle ended in stalemate over the issue of slavery; the second ended in a comparable stalemate over finding an effective response to the Great Depression; the third--well, that's where we are right now. There's no shortage of crises sufficient to tip the current system into its final stalemate, and no shortage of people in the political class who show every sign of being willing to give it that final push. The great difficulty just now, it seems to me, is precisely that fashionable contempt for democracy as it actually exists that I addressed earlier in this essay.  In 1860, that habit was so far from finding a place in the political dialogue that the constitution of the Confederate States of America was in most respects a copy of the one signed at Philadelphia a long lifetime before. In 1932, though a minority of Americans supported Marxism, fascism, or one of the other popular authoritarianisms of the day, the vast majority who put Roosevelt into the White House four times in a row expected him to maintain at least a rough approximation of constitutional government. That's much less true this time around.  Granted, there's less public support for overtly authoritarian ideologies--I expect to see Marxism make a large-scale comeback on the American left in the next few years, for reasons I'll explain in a future post--but as Oswald Spengler pointed out almost a century ago, in the endgame of democratic societies, it's not the cult of ideology but the cult of personality that's the real danger. As the Russian proverb warns, it's never a good idea to let the perfect become the enemy of the good; in our time, as a growing number of Americans insist that America isn't a democracy because it doesn't live up to their fantasies of political entitlement, it's all too possible that one or more mass movements could coalesce around some charismatic figure who offers to fix everything that's wrong with the country if only we let him get rid of all those cumbersome checks and balances that stand in his way.  How many of the benefits of democracy I listed above would survive the victory of such a movement is not a question I would like to contemplate. ****************End of the World of the Week #20Roberto Vacca's The Coming Dark Age got plenty of favorable reviews when it saw print in Italian in 1972, and English and other languages in 1973. As apocalypses go, Vacca's was as lively as it was up to date. He argued that the industrial societies of his time had reached so high a level of complexity and interconnectedness that they were riding for a very hard fall; all those linkages and complexities meant that cascading crises that would bring one system crashing down after another, leaving the people of the industrial world struggling for survival without transport, power, food, or water, had become a statistical inevitability and would begin by 1985. Except, of course, that it didn't. Ironically, Vacca, a computer scientist, missed the fact that the complexity whose risks he described wasn't an independent variable; it was being driven by the rise of exactly the computer technology that was making high complexity manageable, and would make it even more manageable in the decades ahead. Despite the failed prediction, or possibly because of it, The Coming Dark Agemarked the coming of age of a flurry of apocalyptic prophecies that relied, as Vacca's did, on the questionable claim that extreme worst case scenarios sooner or later have to come true. We'll discuss another of these next week. --for more stories like this, see my book ApocalypseNot

Question Everything

Eaarth Day

Welcome to the Planet Eaarth Bill McKibben's book, Eaarth puts it on the line. For those who don't know this is not a misspelling of EARTH, but a spelling the McKibben has used to name a different planet. It is a planet much like the late great one we called Earth, but it is not the same. Unfortunately for we humans, it is really the Earth transformed into a potentially unfavorable environment for mankind and many species alike. And we humans are the ones who did the transforming. April 22 is designated Earth Day around the world. It is a day to observe the state of the planet and try to grasp the effects that human industry and population expansion has had on the Ecos (home). It is a day for reflection about what we are doing, why we are doing it, and what should we do differently if we don't like what we see happening. My own observations lead me to suggest a renaming of the day; we may need to call it Eaarth Day. Our planet is already very different in significant ways from the Earth I knew as a child. And I think it is a different planet because people have remained stubbornly the same — selfish and self-serving at every turn. I thought I would do some reflecting today. This is something of a summary of everything I have written in these blog pages over the last five years. This is both a lament and a work of hope. I lament that humans have come down this particular evolutionary road, the road that will lead to an evolutionary bottleneck of our own devising. I lament the mentality that is so stubbornly blind to the evidence that is there for all to see. I lament that those who are capable of seeing and understanding are so few in number and marginalized. I lament that if not myself, my children will face unimaginable challenges as the climate continues to shift into chaos and the energy needed to do the work of mitigation and adaptation declines so that humans will face the new planet's fury with just their wits and not much more than their muscles. State of the Eaarth I won't belabor the facts. McKibben has done an excellent job of laying out the facts regarding the state of the planet and how it got to this point. It should be enough to note the major trends which are clearly underway and for which the evidence gathers that things will get decidedly worse. The Eaarth is warming due to the emissions over the last two hundred years of carbon-based gasses into the atmosphere. These have what is called a greenhouse effect by capturing reflected light in the low to infra-red ranges and becoming more excited. In other words they trap low grade heat, which accumulates to the point of raising the temperature. Temperature variations across the face of the planet are the drivers of weather. And the long-term patterns of weather define what we call climate. Even though we talk about the average temperature increases as if the temperature everywhere was rising uniformly, this isn't the case. Temperatures are rising disproportionately, especially across latitudes. This sets up greater differentials which is what drives weather events. As the temperature of the atmosphere and surface waters of the oceans increase differentially, we get more extreme weather events, storms, hurricanes, tornados, floods, etc. more frequently and with higher extremities. The world is already experiencing massive shifts in weather patterns that are mostly not predictable based on our old climate models and past experience in weather prediction. The amount of carbon-based gasses that have been produced by human industry have increased exponentially since the early days of the first steam engines burning coal. The emissions continue to grow year by year. And the amount that has already been put into our ecosystem is such that continued increases in average temperature are assured no matter what we do. Ironically, it is the burning of hydrocarbon fuels which contributed to the emissions. It is ironic because those fuels are now starting to dwindle while humanity continues to expand and develop ever more consumptive economies. And these fuels are the source of over 80% of humanity's energy needs and, one could argue, nearly one hundred percent of our high-power (energy dense) fuel needs. Solar energy doesn't come close without truly humongous light apertures that are extremely costly, in both financial and energy investment terms, to build. Furthermore, it is those fuels that would be needed to move cities inland or weather harden human shelters or reorganize food production and transportation. In one fell act of profligate spending on trivia, like the Apple iPod and NASCAR racing, or poorly devised living arrangements like suburbia, we humans have squandered our inheritance and when we will need it most, it won't be available. Its resultant by-product is now that which is causing us great harm. The most dangerous of all consequences of our behaviors will be the disruption of food production and the availability of potable water. With changes in the weather patterns and the unpredictability associated with the chaos we are seeing, cultivatable areas are going to shift and rainfall patterns will be out of sync with the needs of the kinds of crops we generally produce in our industrialized farming systems. Couple that with increasing costs and then scarcities of petrochemical-based fertilizers and pesticides and the picture looks terribly grim. Even if some bright bulbs are able to genetically engineer crops for, say, saltier, more alkaline soils, this will simply not be enough. It takes tremendous amounts of fossil energy to run industrial farms, and those are needed to produce the volume necessary to feed the population we have produced. This is a no-win scenario if ever there was one. The state of the planet is not good. Not just for humans but for a wide array of life forms that have adapted to the climate and weather patterns of the last ten thousand years. Life can adapt if the changes that are wrought happen relatively slowly. Some life forms can adapt to a wide range of climates and so might survive the rapid shifts we are experiencing now and will more so in the future. But they tend to be lower order forms, like bacteria and cockroaches. Humans are not as adaptable, biologically, as we would like to believe. Our adaptation strategy which allows us to inhabit every continent and latitude except for Antarctica (until recently) is the use of exosomatic energy flows to supplement our bodily energy budgets. Take away the energy flows and we are naked and vulnerable. I will stick to my so-far conclusion that humanity has written its own epitaph without realizing it. “Here lies a species that didn't pay attention.” As a species we are essentially entering a moribund state even while most of our kind fail to understand this. I really don't see any evidence that it will turn out differently. We will not be able to adapt to planet Eaarth in our present form. State of the Species Homo sapiens We humans did this to ourselves. There is no one else to blame. Nor can we fault nature for playing a cruel hoax on us. We chose to burn fossil fuels as fast as we possibly could to gain the material wealth we just had to have. But, of course, we are just following our biological mandate to thrive and reproduce our kind, just the same as any other species. We started from basic ignorance about how the world works (science) and so you can't really say we are to “blame” for being what we are. At least this was the case in the beginning. What our industrial economy has allowed us to do is amass a considerable amount of knowledge from science about how things do work. And today, we actually know a great deal about what we should do to lessen the potential impact of the coming situation. This is where our true weakness shows up. As a species, the vast majority of our kind have decided to ignore the science and its implications because that would mean giving up a lot of those creature material comforts and that is something our intellects (on average) are incapable of doing it seems. Instead we have collectively decided to deny that there is any problem in spite of the amassing evidence. It seems that humanity has decided that if we ignore the evidence perhaps there really isn't a problem. Besides, we've always managed to overcome nature's limits in the past. The most pervasive form of denial that I see today is what I will call the Thomas Friedman Syndrome. It involves an unshakable belief in innovation and technology to get us out of the climate/energy bind. Friedman writes incessantly about how, if only we Americans would invest in innovation (ala the Bell Labs of the 1960s), we would find wonderful new ways to produce energy that would allow us to keep right on growing the economy and providing creature comfort wealth to an expanding population. Friedman, like so many others, have engrained in their thinking the model of increasing functionality in diminishing scales of the digital devices that so pervade our lives today. Computer and communications technologies have benefited from the development of solid state devices that allow more information per unit of energy (matter too) to be processed per unit of time. Moore's Law (named after Gordon Moore, a co-founder of Intel Corp.) is really not a law of nature but a heuristic that describes how more processing power comes from shrinking the transistor elements and wires that can be etched into a slab of silicon. It works for electronics because it deals with information. It cannot be applied, even in principle, to matter and energy which are subject to the Second Law of Thermodynamics. Friedman's call for Energy Technology (ET) sounds like a rationale that says, if we could do this for computers, surely we can do it for energy production. He is, of course, tragically wrong. I'm not sure how to characterize the other major mental breakdown that seems to have overtaken our species. The symptoms are seen in the irreparably broken American political and governance systems, but are also seen in those systems in just about every other nation-state in the world today. Our politics is a charade. It is a total farce from the nomination of candidates right through the elections and into the governance process. What we Americans are witnessing today that passes as a legitimate political process is pathetic. I just don't know what else to say. The Republican candidates were a mix of every imaginable clown saying every imaginable lie in order to win votes. Even the man left standing now, Mitt Romney, is a caricature for all that is corrupt and vain about the Republican party and the conservative agenda. And this appears to be the best the Republicans can do. Is it better or worse than George W. Bush? It almost doesn't matter. Bush turned out to be an unmitigated disaster. We are suffering long after his reign and so is the Middle East. So is the rest of the world. Republican economics is based on greed and selfishness to the extreme. They favor the very rich and provide exceedingly weak rationalisms based on the known untrue claim that the rich are the “job creators”. They have one formula for curing the economic ills and that is lower taxes (especially for the wealthy). Their ideas are morally corrupt compared with the ideals, espoused by so many of them, in the Christian religion. Up is down. Right is left. War is peace. And on and on. And then there are the Democrats. The incumbent president is, I'm sorry to say, no better than his Republican rival; he's just bad in different ways. The Democrats and their progressive base start with a very different philosophy with respect to care for their fellow human beings. They are less individualistic thinking and are willing to see that not everyone really does have the opportunity to become wealthy if they would just put their minds to it. As such they have basically good hearts as far as it seems to me. But they apparently lack any intelligence since they sincerely think that if we just take care of everyone who can't take care of themselves everything will work out. At least that is the way they look on paper. If you were to take a closer look at what they have actually done when they held the power you would see a different face. Democrats are every bit as smitten with the economic growth/prosperity theory as are Republicans. They only differ in terms of what they think the best path forward should be. The Democrats are OK with raising taxes but want more government spending to boost the economy and increase the number of jobs (in theory). They are sticking with the vision of a vast middle class of happy consumers whose taxes (under a progressive tax rate scheme) would help pay for government and basic services for those less fortunate. Nice sentiment, perhaps, but totally unrealistic. The American success story was really based on cheap fossil energy being extracted and applied through new machines to produce more, and ever more novel, products and services. But the Democrats pretty much buy into the same fantasy that the Republicans do, that a growing global economy is the key to happiness for everyone. They are every bit as ignorant of the real nature of physical reality as are the Republicans. In truth, all humans have a basic, native intelligence that could let them understand the realities of natural law and the consequences of our past and continuing actions. But something else is preventing them from exercising those gray cells properly. In order to admit of past mistakes and learn why we are in our current predicament, as prelude to thinking up mitigation strategies, we need to have wisdom. We need to be much more sapient beings in order to override our baser instincts and to guide our intellects in learning and deciding. And that is exactly why we are in the predicament in the first place. As a species we lack the native capacity to obtain and use wisdom to the extent needed to prevent our doing stupid things, or at least compensate appropriately if we do. Human beings lack the level of sapience needed to cope with the predicament. They lacked it historically which is why we have the situations we have today, and they lack it now to provide a guide in deciding how to best deal with the predicaments we face. Ergo, nature will impose its laws on us at last, and our species, like so many before us, will go extinct. Which leads me to the hope. I offer none for Homo sapiens. We have sealed our own fates and, indeed, our own coffins. Rather I have hope for evolution to continue to work its magic! Just because our species will expire does not mean our genus will too. Evolution has a history of fits and starts on Earth. Our planet has never been the absolute same planet over the course of geological time. It has always been in flux as far as climate and conditions have been concerned. So in that sense what is coming is actually nothing new in form. What is different is the speed with which the changes will overcome us. It is that rate of change that will create the problems for us and other species. But change is exactly what drives speciation. It has been implicated in the evolution of humans and this coming change will most likely result in yet another round of speciation for the genus Homo. There will be a few who have the right traits to allow them to adapt to whatever changes ensue. They will be, in a sense, pre selected for survival and procreation. They will be the parents of a new incipient species of humanity better suited for some future environment. What those traits will be is not something we can predict. Evolution is a highly stochastic, chaotic process and the law-like parts of it we understand do not yield reliable predictions regarding what will be fit and what won't. Even so, my money is on one trait that seems to me advantageous under a wide variety of conditions, and that is wisdom. Sapience — long-range, strategic, systemic thinking coupled with strong group moral sentiments — is the basis for acquiring and using wisdom. The higher sapient beings in our population are probably not in denial and are, indeed, currently laying plans for how to survive an evolutionary bottleneck. If mostly highly sapient beings survive and produce offspring that carry that trait, then there may yet be a new kind of human with a capacity to think more wisely than we have. Perhaps there will one day be happy, adapted inhabitants of Eaarth.

Dear Readers, Forgive me for not being more responsive of late. As I explained in an earlier post my day job is starting to heat up with renewed interest in systems science. I have just had one paper accepted in a journal. I'll be providing some more information when I get a publication date. This note is just to let you know that the book, Science, Wisdom, and the Future, has just come out and is in distribution (not yet at Amazon). You can order a copy directly from the Collins Family Press (http://www.collinsfoundationpress.com/SWF-Home.htm). Why would you want to? Well, yours truly wrote Chapter 6, The Sapient Brain: The Evolution of Wisdom! Maybe this weekend I can get caught up and have some time to respond to comments. Regards

A surprise call

Will wonders never cease? Apparently some political heavy hitters have been reading this blog! You won't believe who gave me a call last night. About six o'clock my time the land line rang. I didn't recognize the area code on the caller ID so I almost didn't answer. But some little voice in my head urged me to find out who it was. I picked up. "Hello" "Professor Mobus, this is Barack Obama. I hope I'm not calling at a bad time." The voice really did sound like the President's. But I had to suggest this wasn't a very funny gag. "I get that a lot when I call people. But it really is me." "OK," I said hesitantly, "but what do you want with  me?" My mind was vectoring in on a speculation of what he (if he was he) wanted. I guessed someone must have told him about my several criticism in this blog. I was right. "Look, I know you haven't been very happy with me and my administration," the Obama voice said with what sounded pretty sincere. "When Axel (his chief of staff) told me about your blog I was, at first, pretty upset about some of the things you wrote." He paused. "I have really been trying to do the right thing." I tried to choose my words carefully. "Mr. President, I believe you have been concerned about doing the right thing, I really do, but..." He cut in. "Here is the deal. I was upset at first, but I started reading some of your other writings, especially this subject you call biophysical economics. I had never heard of anything like this." "Yes," I replied, "I suspected that your decisions were based on a lack of the really big picture. I can't fault you for not knowing everything, I suppose, but I do think that the president of the United States would be relentlessly looking deeper and get his advisers to dig deeper and not leave their assumptions to ideology." There was a long thoughtful pause. "I guess I have to agree," he said at last. "But in my defense, that is actually why I am calling you. I want to get better advice, I guess. And this biophysical stuff is very intriguing. Already from what I've read on your blog I can see that there really are deeper causes to the economic situation than most of us had imagined. I'm starting to get it." "Mr. President I am delighted to hear that." "Would you be willing to come to Washington to provide more education on this view of economics? I think my people and I could really stand to learn something new." "Sir, I am at your service, of course. But may I suggest that you really need some real experts on the subject. I am not really the best person to help you out there. May I suggest...," and I reeled off a list of names of the biophysical (and ecological) economists who I consider to be top experts. Charlie Hall, naturally, led the list. Then I continued to encourage him to get  a hold of these folks and get on with looking at the REAL problems with the economy so that they could begin to look for options (I didn't say solutions, because we all know we are not talking about solving the problems to re-establish business as usual). He thanked me and said he would still appreciate meeting to discuss some of the other things I had talked about in the blog. He mentioned systems science and my heart skipped a beat. "Wow!" I thought. But I reiterated that I would be at his service. We hung up, and I continued working on dinner. And then I woke up. It was just after midnight. Boy. Some dreams seem so real. If only.

Utopía práctica

Pesegueiro de libertades…

Después de mucho tiempo, abro un nuevo “p o s t” para celebrar que acabo de tomarme una cerveza con pesegueiro, aunque a él sus responsabilidades sólo le permitieron un café con leche. Fue un momento breve pero intenso. Pesegueiro!!! que la suerte te acompañe PD: creo que soy hetero, pero si no [...]

¡NO AL CHOQUE DE CIVILIZACIONES!

Avaaz.org es una comunidad de ciudadanos alrededor del mundo que se movilizan aen torno a los principales asuntos que encara el mundo actual. El propósito de Avaaz.org es asegurar que los puntos de vista y los valores de la mayoría de la gente gente ayuden a moldear las decisiones globales. Puedes unirte a la campaña en [...]

La encrucijada energética II

Si la dimensión del problema ya amuebla un poco nuestra cabeza, es seguro se nos agolparán algunas cuestiones de “fe” que tratan de resistirse al derrumbe que se vislumbra. Fe en la ciencia y en la tecnología que serán capaces de aportar soluciones, fe en la democracia y en la política que sabrá dar respuesta [...]

Decrecimiento.info

Yoopers Trails

Welcome to Yooper's Trails

Hello, and welcome to Yooper's Trails. Most people who come here are interested in my collapse views and the reasoning behind this. May I suggest by starting in the January archive with, "Catabolic Collapse: Detroit, Michigan." By reading your way upward, you'll be actually going along the trail with me, getting to know me along the way. I'll guide you through the Detroit neighborhoods and as we make our way along, we'll comtemplate John Michael Greer's, "Catabolic Collapse" and how it might pretain to this great city.What will be the future of Detroit in 50 years from the present? I don't know. However, perhaps we can find clues in John Michael Greer's, "Adam's Story", where the setting is the rural Pacific Northwest during the second half of this century.1) http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2007/05/adams-story-twilight-in-learyville.html2) http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2007/06/adams-story-nanmin-voyages.html3) http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2007/07/adams-story-banners-in-wind.html4) http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2007/08/adams-story-tillicum-river.html5) http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2007/08/adams-story-uncharted-waters.html

The Spirit of Detroit

As a very young child, I asked my mother what this statue was? "Well, that's the Spirit of Detroit!" she proudly proclaimed. The 26-foot sculpture was the largest cast bronze statue since the Renaissance when it was first installed. In its left hand, the large seated figure holds a gilt bronze sphere emanating rays to symbolize God. In its right hand, is a family group symbolizing all human relationships.People who know me well, would describe me as being a "die hard" Detroit Lions football fan. It takes a certain kind of loyalty, to stay with a team that have been thought to be losers for a number of years. I suppose, that my spirit cannot be broken and I'd rather die, than sway my loyalty from the city I've grown to love. It's this very same spirit that I share with many of the almost one million residents who call Detroit, "home". If there is one underlying theme in the detroitblog, I would say it is this, the people "believe" in this city and think it could turn around.I think it will turn around, even though I'll likely not be around to see it... Detroit is a very old city dating back to 1701. The population of the city was only 1,422 in 1820, one hundred years later in 1920 the population had grown to near a million. Almost 90 years later the population much reflects that at the 1920 level, coming off a peak of almost two million back in 1950.Detroit grew rapidly when coal was king. It soon became a "steel town" as the source of iron ore could be shipped by large boats and a source of coal was sent mostly by rail. As industry grew so did the population and by 1880 there were over 100,000 residents. By 1890 it near doubled over 200,000, by 1920 it boosted of having almost one million people. That was before the rural electrification of America! Is it possible that oil as an energy source, depletes, that coal might likely fill the gap, for awhile anyway? I think so. As the world made by hand, becomes ever so nearer, could some cities such as Detroit with much resources readily at hand, become the great cities in the future? I'd dare say, that the Detroit historical record of population would suggest just that. Unless resources such as water, fertile land, coal, iron ore, and a forest nearby to build from, how will some cities survive in a future that is very likely to become more localized?Could we have just witnessed a great fall of the population in Detroit during the past 50 years and just right around the corner see a partial recovery in population? I don't know, but I'd go so far to suggest that Detroit will see the catabolic process of decline well into future, even if some of us won't be alive to see it....I'm going to conclude with this thought, living with the catabolic collapse that Detroit has seen over the years, has brought about a very rich experience for me, during my lifetime. I've had some very good times, lived a lot and loved a lot, in this great city of Detroit!... I wouldn't have missed it for the world! Instead of my presenting a futuristic scenario, I thought it best coming from the master of Catabolic Collapse himself, John Michael Greer. "Adam's Story", will be posted by links in order, in the concluding segment of this series. This is a story of Catabolic Collapse, set 50 years into the future here in North America. One of my favorites... I've provided you a glimpse of 50 years of catabolic collapse in the great city, that I love, Detroit, from more of a historical perspective.At this time I'd like to thank, John Michael Greer, for his time and patience, introducing me to the theory of Catabolic Collapse. I'd also like to thank greenstatistician, for taking the time, introducing me to the mindset of Oswald Spengler, providing me a better perspective about civilizations past and present. And thanks to FAR and Nudge, for being my constant companions throughout this series.Thank you all, yooperhttp://www.kiddofspeed.com/

Industrail Detroit

In the industrial areas very near the downtown area, is a vast wasteland and has been so for decades. Huge factories stand abandoned marking what had once been the birth place of the modern industrial complex. It was here that electricity was first coupled to power machines capable of producing interchangeable, uniform parts. This technology, in part, helped win WWII. Throughout the late 1800's and 1900's thousands migrated to work here. Detroit was the leader of innovation in the world, becoming the fourth largest city in the Nation, back in 1950.As the factories closed within the city, many moving to the nearby suburbs, much of the population followed them. Today, the Metro Detroit (including suburbs) area has a population near 4,500,000, ranking it 11th in the Nation.Many of these mammoth giants are being torn down today. I was just shocked just how many have been dismantled and hauled away during my last visit there. Notice the construction trailer parked on the lot in the picture above? This abandoned factory will very likely be gone by the time I make the next trip down there. I very much suspect the ground around these complexes are likely to be somewhat contaminated, and there have been times I've had to dress in a class 2 safety suit during removal operations of such material, in the past. However, many of these places will be capped over making them safe once again. Sometimes my work cloths were so dirty, I'd often take them to Laundry Mats like the one pictured below and have them washed there... Daring not, to bringing them home! Sometimes it takes industrial strength detergent to remove industrial dirt... I can't agree more with JHK's thoughts about industry not coming back to such structures, as they are hulled out, very, very few of the old machines left in them, if any. Besides they would not fit the needs of the newer industrial factory of today. Of course taking down such structures costs money, however more times than not, the steel structure that is salvaged often helps substantially in covering much of the demolition costs. Perhaps in the no so distant future, as the price of steel rises, that will speed up the process of demolition? I hope so, as they are sooo ugly. Not so long ago, when I was posting on MSN treads, it'd be often that I'd relate that Detroit or Michigan still leads the economy and that places like Los Angeles or California would be next to decline. Most would scoff at such an idea, thinking Michigan only lags behind in the recovery of the early 2000's recession. I suppose now, this idea isn't so farfetched...Detroit being the birthplace of the modern industrial complex, doesn't it stand to reason that as the jobs it once provided were being shipped overseas, it would be one of the first to decline? I must say, I was very, very disappointed driving around the downtown area, I had thought that more improvements would have been made since the twenty years that I worked there. I had put a lot of heart and soul into it, and a lot of sweat! Can Detroit stage a comeback? I think so, it'll very likely never be what it once was, but then again, if the suburbs are to go next, where are those people to go? There are those that are suggesting that as this civilization wanes, it'll become more of a world that is made by hand. I can't agree more, as it appears our energy might wane in the process also. If Detroit is to be a viable city in the future, it'll have to have the resources enabling it to be so. I'm going to strongly suggest it has and think that by the will of it's people, this great city could once again marvel to those that come upon it.

Oil Man

Raréfaction des métaux : demain, le « peak all »

Merci à la rédaction du magazine Science & Vie, qui propose ce mois-ci une enquête sur un sujet essentiel que je me désespérais de trouver le temps de traiter : le déclin des réserves mondiales de métaux (précieux ou pas). Et … Continuer la lecture →

Ruée vers l’Arctique : l’alerte de la Lloyd’s, l’une des plus prestigieuses compagnies d’assurance

La Lloyd's de Londres, l'une des plus anciennes compagnies d'assurance au monde, particulièrement présente dans le domaine maritime, lance une mise en garde sévère contre les inconnues techniques et les risques environnementaux de la ruée vers l'océan Arctique. Le directeur … Continuer la lecture →

Présidentielles : le débat sur l’énergie ne doit pas s’arrêter au nucléaire (bons baisers de Fukushima)

Les représentants des candidats à la présidentielle doivent exposer leurs points de vue sur l'avenir de l'énergie aujourd'hui à 15 heures à la Maison de la chimie, à Paris, à l'invitation du WWF et de Terra Nova. J'espère que tout … Continuer la lecture →